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By James Hohmann (
mailto:jhohmann@politico.com
jhohmann@politico.com ; Twitter: @jameshohmann)

BIDEN'S NIGHT-There isn't consensus on who "won," which means it's probably a draw, but Joe Biden was the center of attention during last night's debate and afterwards. Paul Ryan comes across as a Biden foil in much of the coverage and commentary that posted overnight. This debate is unlikely to significantly impact the race's dynamics, although Biden's aggressiveness could help Democratic enthusiasm after Obama's poor performance last week.

STYLE OVER SUBSTANCE: It's VERY likely that Biden's scoffing at Ryan will overshadow everything else in the five days leading up to Tuesday's presidential debate at Hofstra on Long Island. As "Meet the Press" executive producer Betsy Fischer Martin tweeted last night, "Biden constant smiling is reminding me of Gore constant sighing in 2000." It is hard to imagine Saturday Night Live not building a funny skit around this. 'What about your laughs?' will be the new 'What about your gaffes?' CNN assembled a group of 31 undecided Virginia voters in Norfolk to get reaction. One woman told host Erin Burnett that Biden came across like a "BUFFOON." It will be problematic for the president if this
impression takes hold:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562122ae50012d2d4f82049dfabe09350832f4eb1bcce2fc69b3a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562122ae50012d2d4f82049dfabe09350832f4eb1bcce2fc69b3a .

Biden is 69, Ryan is 42 and it showed. Several of the top searches on Google last night pertained to each candidate's age.

MORNING-AFTER MESSAGING: The RNC turned a 1-minute video of Biden laughing and smiling while Ryan talked seriously:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e95621279333e27795a062e198f9e949e15ffde4641586f37779f37
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e95621279333e27795a062e198f9e949e15ffde4641586f37779f37 . The Obama campaign posted a 2-minute video called, "The Romney-Ryan Strategy: Thirsting for an answer":
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e95621252f03d01a225bd7840d752810d1525323988ee4346f867c4
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e95621252f03d01a225bd7840d752810d1525323988ee4346f867c4 .

Lots more on the debate further down...

EXCLUSIVE - RESTORE OUR FUTURE BUYING $1.5 MILLION IN MICHIGAN: The Romney super PAC will go on the air Saturday with "New Normal," the economic-focused attack on President Obama's record that they've run in a couple other states over the last few weeks. 'Michigan is now a 'toss up' state for the Presidential race and it is no surprise that Mitt Romney is coming on strong in his native state," writes Restore Our Future co-founder and counsel Charlie Spies. "Michiganders, who have felt the full weight of Barack Obama's broken promises and failed policies, are increasingly energized by Mitt Romney's clear vision for a stronger economy and better tomorrow.' Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562122e74aaf2ab3be95ad89609a25b6244a6b3456f02f62534e3
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562122e74aaf2ab3be95ad89609a25b6244a6b3456f02f62534e3 .

ARIZONA RESPONSE - "CONGRESSMAN FLAKE SHOULD BE ASHAMED": A former female colleague vouches for Democrat Rich Carmona in a 30-second spot going up statewide today that responds to the Jeff Flake ad in which his ex-boss in the Bush administration accuses him on banging on her door in the middle of the night. "Rich Carmona was part of my SWAT team, and he was a joy to work with," says Capt. Kathleen Brennan (Ret.), a former SWAT commander. "Rich treats everybody with respect. It doesn't matter whether you're male or female. Rich was about protecting people and saving lives. So when I see a career politician like Jeff Flake attacking Rich Carmona, who has spent his life helping others, it's
despicable. Congressman Flake should be ashamed." Carmona will hold a press conference today to deny that the incident described in Flake's ad ever happened. Watch the Carmona spot:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212e198e5cf8f46f58b5524fedfeaa2c26d2ddd575606bde820
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212e198e5cf8f46f58b5524fedfeaa2c26d2ddd575606bde820 .

MASSACHUSETTS SNEAK PEEK - WARREN WOOS WOMEN: "Scott Brown had one bill to vote on for equal pay for women.He voted no," a narrator says in a new commercial for Democrat Elizabeth Warren's Massachusetts Senate campaign. "He had once chance to confirm a Supreme Court justice to uphold Roe v. Wade.He voted no. One vote to protect insurance coverage for birth control.He voted no." The 30-second spot features four women saying they're disappointed and that Brown isn't who he says. Public Policy Polling, the automated Democratic firm, reported yesterday that Warren leads Brown 50-44:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212a2d82518f0e768630a8ce890be85435f8c7f232746f650d3
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212a2d82518f0e768630a8ce890be85435f8c7f232746f650d3 . Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e95621201e278780f3abb2781fba6fab254ec2698014142f8865e5d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e95621201e278780f3abb2781fba6fab254ec2698014142f8865e5d .

As Steve King writes on his hand, Florida moves Romney's way and Obama hosts his last fundraiser, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

THE TRAIL TODAY-

ROMNEY and RYAN in OHIO: The running mates have a joint rally at the Town Square in Lancaster at 5:40 p.m. Ryan then flies to Youngstown, arriving at 8:30. Earlier in the day, Romney has a rally in Richmond, Virginia, at the Mobility Supercenter at 12:15.

BIDEN in WISCONSIN: Air Force Two touched down in Delaware at 1:50 a.m., and Biden deplaned at 2:05. He flies to La Crosse for a 1:45 p.m. rally at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse. Then he and Jill fly back to Wilmington, Delaware.

OBAMA in DC: His only public event is a 6:30 p.m. dinner with winners of a campaign contest at 6:30. The president heads to Williamsburg on Sunday for three full days of debate prep. He'll return to DC Tuesday. Jay Carney briefs at 11:15.

ANN in MICHIGAN: 8:15 victory event at The Pinnacle Center in Hudsonville. She will then drop by the Franklin Cider Mill in Bloomfield Hills at 2:40.

CRAIG in FLORIDA: The Romney son holds an 11 a.m. rally in Miami with Marco Rubio at Florida International University.

COUNTDOWN: 25 days.

SNAP POLLS-

CBS: Biden won 50-31, with 19% calling a tie, according to a sample of UNCOMMITTED voters.
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CNN:Ryan beat Biden 48-44,with 6% volunteering both and 2% volunteering neither, among ALL registered voters. The sample split 33% Republican, 31% Democratic and 34% independent. 55% said Biden did a better job than they expected, and 51% said the same about Ryan.
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TIME OF POSSESSION (via CNN clock): Biden, 41:32; Ryan, 40:12. Ryan actually got more words out (per NBC): 7,463 to 7,013.

FROM THE TRANSCRIPT: Biden did not use the word "literally." He said "Martha" 17 times, but he only said "Obama" once. He used "friend" 15 times - mostly in reference to Romney and Ryan (neither of whom is actually a friend). Romney's surname came up 53 times, Alex Burns notes, versus 30 times for Obama. Full text:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e95621299955190a73ee9ca56f4c016531f99d244707895d0296b47
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e95621299955190a73ee9ca56f4c016531f99d244707895d0296b47 .

HOW IT PLAYED ON SOCIAL MEDIA-

FACEBOOK: Biden had 36% more mentions than Ryan during the debate.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212f8653655f5cd254af6a836911ff931d7a6bd6ce8a34a8e95
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TWITTER: 3.5 million tweets went out about the debate during the 92 minutes of action, only about one-third of the 10.3 million that went out during last week's debate in Denver. 26% of last night's tweets were about foreign policy, 21% about the economy and 16% regarded taxes. The peak number of tweets-per-minute came when Biden said "Now you're Jack Kennedy?" (58,275), Ryan said "They got caught with their hand in the cookie jar turning Medicare into a piggy bank for Obamacare" (55,540) and Biden defended the timetable for leaving Afghanistan (54,944).
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GOOGLE: Top five rising search terms-1. Biden 2. Conflating 3. Malarkey 4. Who is winning the debate? 5. How old is Paul Ryan? Top related searches for Biden: How old is he, Laughing, Jill. Top related searches for Ryan: How old is he, shirtless and workout.

WHO WON? -

POLITICO's Jonathan Martin and John F. Harris call it "a pretty mixed verdict": "It is clear that Biden's substantive high points-and there were several places where he took clear command of the debate on issues ranging from entitlements to taxes-would be at least partly shadowed by his nonstop succession of incredulous smiles, sneers, taunts and guffaws...Ryan, for his part, gave Republicans the minimum they needed. He turned in a passable performance with no big errors and with very occasional-and very faint-flashes of the energetic young domestic policy activist that first won him the national spotlight. But Ryan didn't do much more than that...If he didn't do any damage to Romney, it is
possible he did some slight damage to his own long-term reputation."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562126cb68b2c5a5c2c2d9cf336c8e3536a35f684515c8d466cfe
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Time's Mark Halperin gives Ryan a "B" and Biden a "B-": "[Ryan] never took any big risks or descended into wonkiness...Biden didn't commit any major disasters, but surrendered the gravitas edge."
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CNN's Wolf Blitzer said the debate "looks like, at least to me, pretty much of a draw." He added that he thought the two candidates were "pretty happy with their respective performances." Colleague John King agreed, saying "there was not a wipe-out in this debate." Host Anderson Cooper jumped in, adding, "you certainly could not take your eyes off him. You could not turn away for a second."

Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace slammed Biden as "openly disrespectful" and "contemptuous" in a way he's never seen before during national political debates. Brit Hume predicted that voters will pick a debate winner based on whether they liked Biden's smirking and laughing or thought it was disrespectful. More TV reaction from Mackenzie Weinger:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e95621218282c357d410fb6503d4ea93e8584cf8e3c775747e07a9e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e95621218282c357d410fb6503d4ea93e8584cf8e3c775747e07a9e .

New York Times blogger Nate Silver says it's a "middle ground" between win, lose and draw: "My best guess: perhaps Mr. Biden can be credited with what in baseball statistics would be termed a 'hold': something a bit shy of either a win or a save and which will probably seem perfunctory with the passage of time, but which might have done his team a bit of good."
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Washington Post blogger Chris Cillizza says Ryan was neither a winner nor loser: "The debate was SO dominated by Biden - for good and for bad - that Ryan was largely a bystander." Winner: Biden's last 15 minutes. Loser: Biden's first 75 minutes.
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The Reuters headline says "In vice presidential debate, 'tie goes to the incumbent'": It's a reference to a quote in their story from David Steinberg, a debate coach and communications professor at the University of Miami.
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POLITICO columnist Roger Simon says Biden won the audience over and got under Ryan's skin: "Whatever Biden was drinking Thursday night, Obama ought to order a case of it."
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National Journal's Ron Fournier calls it a "draw": "Biden's debate performance easily cleared the low bar set by his boss: He was aggressive, attentive and in many ways effective pushing President Obama's agenda. But he was also sarcastic and condescending - a stylistic blemish against [his] workmanlike rival..."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e95621233e9cc0a98fdc10211695ad4fd41bdef061cf8d5d3949a55
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e95621233e9cc0a98fdc10211695ad4fd41bdef061cf8d5d3949a55

THE BUZZ IN THE BATTLEGROUNDS-

The Des Moines Register's Jennifer Jacobs: "Biden showed some smash-mouthing heat...But the smirking from the Democratic vice presidential candidate might turn off some voters in Iowa, where polling has shown he has a likability gap...Several Iowa analysts gave a slight advantage to Ryan, a 14-year congressman from Wisconsin who has gained a reputation as a confrontational watchdog on spending and debt. He got the nod for standing his own against Biden, a blunt-talking politician who served for 36 years in the U.S. Senate, where he became known as a foreign policy expert as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212dc3450df690aaaf7d39187f0427a1c22caa7c20be035926f
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212dc3450df690aaaf7d39187f0427a1c22caa7c20be035926f

The Tampa Bay Times' Alex Leary: "One of Ryan's strongest moments came when he described his and Romney's plans to revamp Medicare, an issue that Democrats have used to their advantage...Biden said Obama had made steps to streamline Medicare, including $716 billion in savings that were applied to the health care law."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212b02df0ae1245f4f362d5faa73cc5c2a861b3c39e0a696b70
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212b02df0ae1245f4f362d5faa73cc5c2a861b3c39e0a696b70

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Craig Gilbert: "It was the sort of debate in which both candidates likely gratified their own supporters and left the other side rolling their eyes."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212181692362906e458264f12de76e6217161f1eedc25b6ee71
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212181692362906e458264f12de76e6217161f1eedc25b6ee71

The Palm Beach Post's John Kennedy: "Biden's drank all the Red Bull Obama left over from last debate."

INTERESTING ANALYSIS-

Glenn Thrush: "Curiously, both men struggled most in the areas assumed to be their greatest areas of expertise." Biden didn't have good answers on Libya, and Ryan didn't have an effective comeback for requesting stimulus funds for projects in his district:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e95621245d809158310f251c2e93f62b88c4f298279297f86831a15
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e95621245d809158310f251c2e93f62b88c4f298279297f86831a15 .

Maggie Haberman: "Neither man seemed entirely ready to be president - but Biden has the benefit of already being the second in command."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212783bb00c26ebded4afe435832152dd1588863f37a58ba624
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212783bb00c26ebded4afe435832152dd1588863f37a58ba624

USA Today's Susan Page: "...the similarities between Biden and Ryan also shaped their conversation, from their common roots in blue-collar America to long political careers that made each of them congressional royalty. In those ways, they resemble one another more than they do the presidential nominees. Both are Catholics born in manufacturing towns in the Rust Belt that have seen economic struggles - Biden in Scranton, Pa., and Ryan in Janesville and each mentioned his hometown during the debate. Biden won his first election to the New Castle County Council in Delaware at age 28; Ryan won his first election at age 28, too, to represent Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562120a554e6915e7843dc38042ec2fa34b1292b5488437992a96
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562120a554e6915e7843dc38042ec2fa34b1292b5488437992a96

THREE STORIES THAT WILL COME UP TODAY-

THE MODERATOR-RYAN CAMP NOT SATISFIED WITH RADDATZ: 'I thought she obviously asserted herself more than [Jim] Lehrer did, but there was still a great deal of crosstalk, there was still a great deal of difficulty making points in a reasonable and progressive fashion,' Steel told POLITICO's Juana Summers. 'So you think she made it fair, would you say?' another reporter asked. 'I'm not sure I would say that,' Steel replied.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562125d5d83d69f1604f322f71fd0a926785e376cd1e36a04e10b
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562125d5d83d69f1604f322f71fd0a926785e376cd1e36a04e10b

LIBYA-Foreign Policy Magazine: "Biden contradicts State Department on Benghazi security."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e95621249347c7213d28f1003fb940c19f2e32e9da4e6ce85f7188d
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TAXES-Wall Street Journal: "Biden on Thursday night delved into one of the most contentious political issues in Washington--taxes--and he might have tweaked the White House's bargaining stance in the process. He suggested that the White House might be willing to accept higher tax rates on families earning more than $1 million, a higher threshold than the $250,000 limit it has stood by for years."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212f95aaf30cc582651b668bfae88ee4e326dac9cb6e191665f
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WHAT LIBERALS ARE SAYING-

Talking Points Memo publisher Josh Marshall: "It might be the big follow-on tomorrow: Biden got Ryan to admit that he and Romney support at least the principle of eliminating Social Security and replacing it with private accounts. In other words, the 2005 Bush plan."
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The Atlantic's James Fallows: "Ryan, who was fine, did not advance his team's prospects beyond what Mitt Romney had done last week. Whereas Joe Biden, who put on the best performance of his long career, supplied the only good news his team has had in six days (since last Friday's jobs report). Even though, yes, he could have smiled less. Obama owes him, BFD-style."
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Washington Post columnist E.J. Dionne: "In 2004, after John Kerry's clear victory over George W. Bush in the first presidential debate, then-Vice President Dick Cheney came out on top in most of the commentary about his encounter with Democrat John Edwards. Cheney thereby slowed Kerry's momentum. Dick Cheney has never been Joe Biden's role model, but Biden's imperative last night was the same as Cheney's eight years ago. And with a very different style, he achieved the same result."
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New York Magazine's Jonathan Chait: "In case you missed it, I predicted that Paul Ryan would wipe the floor with Joe Biden. That did not so much happen. Ryan did not perform quite as well as I expected - he seemed greener, younger, and he visibly gulped when challenged. But Biden delivered a revelatory performance that proved me utterly wrong."
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Washington Post blogger Ezra Klein: "I'd give the edge to Biden, but Ryan delivered a solid performance, and it's hard for me to imagine many voters changing their minds because of a vice presidential debate. But what's unquestionably true is that Biden succeeded tonight. He had a simple job: Stop the bleeding. Buck up the troops...And so Biden came out tonight and picked a fight...Biden gave Democrats hope tonight. But the real question is whether, in the next presidential debate, Obama will give them change."
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Democratic strategist Hilary Rosen: "Joe Biden won - not because he was aggressive which he was - but because he didn't let Ryan get away with making stuff up."

WHAT CONSERVATIVES ARE SAYING-

PowerLine blog's John Hinderaker: "Sarah Palin did a much better job against Joe Biden in 2008 than Paul Ryan did tonight. Bizarre, but true."
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National Review editor Rich Lowry: "I found Biden's conduct appalling. A high-school sophomore who did that in debate class would get dismissed. BUT it was effective at least in controlling the agenda and keeping Ryan from getting much rhetorical elbow room the first hour."
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The Wall Street Journal's Peggy Noonan: "For the second time in two weeks, the Democrat came out and defeated himself. In both cases the Republican was strong and the Democrat somewhat disturbing. Another way to say it is the old man tried to patronize the kid and the kid stood his ground. The old man pushed, and the kid pushed back."
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National Review's Bob Costa says "Ryan held his own with Biden": "BUT it wasn't a knockout performance... This was a foreign-policy debate, moderated by a foreign correspondent. Ryan didn't stumble, and he was serious, but he rarely found his groove."
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Herman Cain: "There were no winners. This debate was not a debate. It was a Distraction. #Biden used interruption as tactic to suppress Ryan's substance... Ryan simply too respectful of the Vice President."
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GOP consultant Alex Castellanos: "Biden [is] irritating, but wouldn't be surprised if [O]bama base is liking him. [A]t least he's fighting for them, unlike Obama last week."

Rep. Allen West (R-Fla.): "Biden came across as a rude curmudgeon who could not defend the failing policies of the Obama administration so he tried to smirk, shout and laugh his way through the debate."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562121fc1beafcb933cff73c2a1b86cf256153f12ff2dc5f57cb8
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562121fc1beafcb933cff73c2a1b86cf256153f12ff2dc5f57cb8

** Don't miss FRONTLINE The Choice 2012. The definitive look at the presidential candidates from those who know them best. Watch now on PBS.org. Gain unique insight on President Obama and Governor Romney from exclusive 'personal artifacts' at (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562122cf2b78268262c0939acd6382a0112db750b3c51d51a6be8
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562122cf2b78268262c0939acd6382a0112db750b3c51d51a6be8 ) **

THE AIR WAR-

DCCC SAYS THEY HAVE A "PATH TO 25 SEATS IN 25 DAYS": The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee tells supporters in an infographic going out later that 75 races are in play, Republicans hold 64 House seats won by Obama in 2008 and they need a net pickup of only 25 states. Their Red to Blue program is giving resources to 54 Democratic campaigns. Conventional wisdom is that the GOP keeps the House, but the Democratic committee says Republicans are currently losing in 31 races and their candidates tie in another 12. The DCCC notes they've outraised the NRCC for the cycle and says ads are currently running in 46 districts across 25 states. They also claim 163 field offices in 63 districts.
First look:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212ddca4ba63bd172b033c478d327c417fe8e8249f48fa3f7e2
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212ddca4ba63bd172b033c478d327c417fe8e8249f48fa3f7e2 . Here's a new DCCC IE ad tying Ann Marie Buerkle in NY-24 to Paul Ryan's budget:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212c793bf1c369ae9ec6b50c9a3b39ec79dbd51fdc9c766d183
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212c793bf1c369ae9ec6b50c9a3b39ec79dbd51fdc9c766d183 .

CROSSROADS GPS LAUNCHING $8.1 MILLION BUY IN 11 DISTRICTS: The conservative super PAC goes on the air Saturday and continues over the next 3 weeks across broadcast and radio. Alex Isenstadt says that the districts are IA-03, IA-04, CA-21, IL-12, IN-02, NV-04, NY-01, NY-18, NY-25, MI-01 and IL-17.

POLLING-

Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald of FLORIDA: Romney up 7 (51-44). The same poll showed Obama ahead 48-47 a month ago. "The debate prompted 5 percent of previously undecided voters and 2 percent of Obama backers to move to Romney," Adam Smith reports. Another 2 percent of Obama supporters said they are now undecided because of the debate...Obama's lead among likely women voters in Florida fell from 15 percentage points last month to just 2 points...Obama's once 11 point lead among likely independent voters had cascaded into a 13 point lead for Romney this week." Obama adviser David Plouffe responds: 'It's impossible for us to be at 44 in Florida.'
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562122d197b4bd434cba2f2c58e8ab478750fa13fcdb23f371421
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562122d197b4bd434cba2f2c58e8ab478750fa13fcdb23f371421

Crossroads of MAINE: Obama leads statewide 48-44, but Romney tops Obama 49-44 in the second congressional district. This matters because the state awards its electoral votes by district. Glen Bolger ran the poll for the conservative super PAC, which shared it with Byron Tau:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562123d64c6e6a9f183d13cb7f2a267b404ac94a11ef0228f572d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562123d64c6e6a9f183d13cb7f2a267b404ac94a11ef0228f572d .

Pew of LATINOS: Obama up 48 (69-21) nationally.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212df03fdadfa7a0a456a93a46610ff659e8988acf16850e0cf
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212df03fdadfa7a0a456a93a46610ff659e8988acf16850e0cf

Gallup finds most polarized electorate ever: "Thus far in October, an average of 90% of Democrats, and 8% of Republicans, approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president. That 82-percentage-point gap in approval ratings by party is on pace to be the largest Gallup has measured for a recent incumbent president in the final month before Americans vote on his re-election. George W. Bush had an 80-point party gap in approval, while the October gaps for other presidents were less than 70 points."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562126641ce3cd4ae9ed61498055925e52b2939b0231f5024dd04
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562126641ce3cd4ae9ed61498055925e52b2939b0231f5024dd04

Michigan-3: Republican freshman Rep. Justin Amash leads Democrat Steve Pestka by 4 (48-44) in a poll conducted for the challenger's campaign by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. The Grand Rapids-based district continues to lean Republican, but Pestka was down 8 (52-40) in August. The margin of error is 4.9%. Memo:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212c1af6415bcc8f47fd514da2fa0d20a563b43c002b1f8ff56
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212c1af6415bcc8f47fd514da2fa0d20a563b43c002b1f8ff56 .

OBAMA HOSTS LAST FUNDRAISER: "Speaking at the J.W. Marriott Marquis in Miami, Obama largely repeated the stump speech he delivered earlier in the day at the University of Miami," Reid Epstein writes. "He added new flourishes, but the meat of his 26-minute address mimicked what he said Thursday afternoon to students at the school here."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212d0b5f4260910f4619e1f5fcb88f49593581875095b4c7943
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212d0b5f4260910f4619e1f5fcb88f49593581875095b4c7943

BATTLEGROUND BRIEFING-THE PATH TO 270:

ROMNEY MEMO CALLS OHIO A "TOSSUP": "Surveys weighted with a realistic view of partisan enthusiasm show the race in Ohio as a tossup," Scott Jennings writes. "This corresponds with our internal data as well. Our view is that the race in Ohio is a dead heat, independent voters are moving toward Romney, and Democrats are losing steam and enthusiasm here every day." Obtained by Alex Burns:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212b46b60880bf7f68482fc4d1bca633bcecb66e75a6f598367
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212b46b60880bf7f68482fc4d1bca633bcecb66e75a6f598367 .

NON-DEBATE HEADLINES IN THE SWING STATES THIS MORNING-

AP: "Ryan asked for federal help as he championed cuts."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562126950b795cc598028034cc2ed0ac25ee1b3f97dd2d9a4febd
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562126950b795cc598028034cc2ed0ac25ee1b3f97dd2d9a4febd

Charlotte Observer: "Friday is voter registration deadline in N.C."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212da10d30a4a5ebfdb0bc9e6d466957c4de51ed6d8716b7369
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212da10d30a4a5ebfdb0bc9e6d466957c4de51ed6d8716b7369

Cleveland Plain Dealer: "Ohio elections chief Jon Husted restricts methods to notify voters of absentee ballot errors."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e95621283e89c140d05832a5d6fc4ba4ff2afb0333ae868c2dde132
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e95621283e89c140d05832a5d6fc4ba4ff2afb0333ae868c2dde132

Columbus Dispatch: "Catholic groups speaking up on different election issues; 1 pushes social justice; 1, religious freedom."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e95621275ee7fa366316dc486f9ffbd0742ce7214b6b68cbb0450df
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e95621275ee7fa366316dc486f9ffbd0742ce7214b6b68cbb0450df

Dayton Daily News: "Nuns touring Ohio to put political focus on poor and vulnerable."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212f9a9467f584aabc9b0d1070e08235695da0123ca2a6daf2d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212f9a9467f584aabc9b0d1070e08235695da0123ca2a6daf2d

Denver Post: "Republican whose mother survived breast cancer hit with mammogram attack mailer."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212bbb8542ecda74759e4f5895725f7750feddf38419f5d5302
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e956212bbb8542ecda74759e4f5895725f7750feddf38419f5d5302

The Roanoke Times: "September decline puts state tax collections behind forecast."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db69c775d87574aad60acc588f5747bcc247439d8d99f5afb5
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db69c775d87574aad60acc588f5747bcc247439d8d99f5afb5

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: "Former Walker aide Rindfleisch enters guilty plea to misconduct."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db0d7a0a4b1534c6d3d28fd7e4ec70c4944e61b1ee718be8ae
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db0d7a0a4b1534c6d3d28fd7e4ec70c4944e61b1ee718be8ae

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: "Libertarian candidates allowed on ballots in Pennsylvania."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2dba94c66097acada9bb90573c28085896e9527a4ebdecbbcc7
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2dba94c66097acada9bb90573c28085896e9527a4ebdecbbcc7

FOUR OTHER DEBATES LAST NIGHT-

POWER GOES OUT AT NEVADA SENATE DEBATE - Las Vegas Sun: "In the second debate of the U.S. Senate campaign, incumbent Republican Sen. Dean Heller and his Democratic rival, Rep. Shelley Berkley, sparred over online poker, a mining project in rural Nevada and financial reform, laying out the final campaign themes just weeks before early voting begins. Then the power went out. A hailstorm cut power to the studio once, just as the candidates began to joust over energy policy. The television stations twice lost their feeds amid the turbulent weather. 'We need to go after our own oil, our own coal, our own natural gas, our own alternative energy ...' Heller said just before the power died. Berkley
quipped: 'We could use some now,' to laughter from the audience at the Vegas PBS studio. Throughout the debate, Heller attempted to strike a bipartisan tone, casting himself as a pragmatic problem-solver. And in a departure from the last debate, Heller passed on some easy shots at Berkley, particularly the ongoing ethics investigation into whether Berkley advocated policies to financially benefit her husband. 'I think the issue has essentially played itself out,' he said." Sun story:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db27aaa38714486c45543c2055cd581b7c4701867ef64e6376
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db27aaa38714486c45543c2055cd581b7c4701867ef64e6376 . Reno Gazette Journal analysis says there was no clear winner:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db29db905c472d0cb769d369123577f7c508a34cf68f92b0c1
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db29db905c472d0cb769d369123577f7c508a34cf68f92b0c1 .

CONNECTICUT SENATE - Hartford Courant: "When the bell for round two rang Thursday evening, Republican Linda McMahon and Democrat Chris Murphy began the pummeling again, turning their second debate of the U.S. Senate campaign into a nasty and sometimes ugly scrap. They talked issues - from birth control and Afghanistan to taxes on the wealthy - but the two candidates used much of the 60 minutes of brisk back-and-forth to relentlessly hammer each other in front of a large crowd at the University of Connecticut's Jorgensen Auditorium...The evening left little doubt that both Murphy, a three-term congressman from Connecticut's 5th District, and McMahon, the former CEO of the wrestling
entertainment company WWE, plan to steadily slam each other until Election Day."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db3dbf950506891cec284527240fbbc639bb2a06021129ea02
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db3dbf950506891cec284527240fbbc639bb2a06021129ea02

NEW MEXICO SENATE - Santa Fe New Mexican: "New Mexico's race for the U.S. Senate seemed closer in the first televised debate Thursday than recent polls have suggested, with both candidates giving strong performances, putting the other on the defense and avoiding major mistakes. U.S. Rep. Martin Heinrich and former U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson for an hour debated in a format that didn't feature the usual podiums or timed responses. Instead, the pair faced each other at a table in the KRQE Channel 13 studios, and were able to interrupt as needed - which they did often on topics ranging from immigration to the deficit and the state's national labs."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2dbe94430760ca6fcb8a91b65510edce324f5a5e96188ed73ef
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2dbe94430760ca6fcb8a91b65510edce324f5a5e96188ed73ef

WASHINGTON GOVERNOR - Seattle Times: "Democrat Jay Inslee and Republican Rob McKenna sparred about the budget, education and health care during an hourlong debate Thursday night that was broadcast across the state. The candidates broke little new ground, but for the first time in a debate they addressed gay marriage and gun control. Inslee, a former congressman from Bainbridge Island, said he supports gay marriage, while McKenna, the state attorney general, said he does not but will respect the will of the voters if they approve Referendum 74 next month. Both candidates said the state needs to be wary of gun violence, with McKenna touting his work on the issue as attorney general. The
matchup also featured the campaign's most extensive discussion about a McKenna proposal to simultaneously increase the state property-tax levy for schools and reduce local school levies by about the same amount."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db39ad21af441d7a5a77741b34bf83b6bb38cb49d0b8d20234
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db39ad21af441d7a5a77741b34bf83b6bb38cb49d0b8d20234

MORE DOWN BALLOT NEWS-

MASSACHUSETTS SENATE - OUTSIDE GROUPS UNDO BROWN-WARREN PACT: "Independent political groups are finding ways around the pledge by Republican Senator Scott Brown and Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren to keep outside money out," Bloomberg's Alison Fitzgerald reports. "The League of Conservation Voters, Americans for Tax Reform and Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies have spent more than $1 million on robo-calls, direct mail and door-to-door canvassing in the last three weeks...The groups are working in the state even though the two candidates signed a pledge in January announcing that they didn't want outside groups advertising in their race...The three groups aren't spending on
television ads, so they aren't violating the pledge, said Jeff Gohringer, a spokesman for the League of Conservation Voters."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db24ff0a11066eab08627a810035a27491c50708d4a000586c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db24ff0a11066eab08627a810035a27491c50708d4a000586c

SOUTH CAROLINA SENATE (2014) - RAND ATTACKS GRAHAM FOR HELPING MANCHIN: Rand Paul lashed out yesterday at fellow Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham - already likely to face a tough primary challenge next cycle - for defending Joe Manchin in the face of an his PAC is running against the West Virginia Democrat over foreign aid. "I don't see myself campaigning against a Republican in a general election ever, that's why I think it's extraordinary that Graham is supporting a Democrat in a general election," Paul told Manu Raju. "That's fairly extraordinary to do that." Graham - a defense hawk who has raised or donated $300,000 to Republican candidates this cycle - declined, through a spokesman, to
comment on Paul's criticism. But Manchin, who is a heavy favorite to be reelected in November, reacted furiously to the charge. He accused Paul of a "callous" act that put "politics over your country."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db27297a92c91fa3f4f5b515e7870cdf7be8f91e8852b1666d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db27297a92c91fa3f4f5b515e7870cdf7be8f91e8852b1666d

CALIFORNIA HOUSE - BERMAN, SHERMAN NEARLY GET PHYSICAL: "At a debate Thursday evening at a San Fernando Valley-area community college, the two incumbents [Democratic Reps. Howard Berman and Brad Sherman] got in each other's face, with Sherman putting Berman in a bear hug and shouting, 'Do you want to get into this?' While the congressmen stopped short of any physical altercation, the confrontation was heated enough that a police officer arrives on stage to separate the two," Charlie Mahtesian reports. "In response to the Berman camp's release of a video clip from the wild debate, the Sherman campaign released its own video clip of the lead-up to the confrontation, which featured Berman
accusing his foe of being 'delusional.'"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2dbb0214ab9bc61c3c8c96e6120940b5ebc42dbcc5f4326c387
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2dbb0214ab9bc61c3c8c96e6120940b5ebc42dbcc5f4326c387

LIGHTER CLICKS -

ROMNEY watched the debate over pizza with Christine, the winner of a campaign contest. Photo from Zac Moffatt:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db64fdf4cfc046dcb8f7c5b231eaa50e52796b493206236e5c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db64fdf4cfc046dcb8f7c5b231eaa50e52796b493206236e5c .

OBAMA watched aboard Air Force One. White House photo:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2dbe924cbe72afc471eb83642ba7538732b500f61e23db168ad
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2dbe924cbe72afc471eb83642ba7538732b500f61e23db168ad .

JON STEWART made fun of Todd Akin, Allen West, Joe Walsh and Paul Broun in a segment on down-ballot Republicans last night:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db90278c8be881ace9076ab1cc410c053ac38d6ad2116b92ee
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db90278c8be881ace9076ab1cc410c053ac38d6ad2116b92ee .

KID ROCK and SEAN PENN record a funny 11-minute public service announcement intended to tear down political stereotypes by confronting them head on:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2dbd685d723644ecf13f3a54e47081bd33572773ecc2e5d5dba
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2dbd685d723644ecf13f3a54e47081bd33572773ecc2e5d5dba .

STEVE KING, the Iowa congressman, jotted notes down on his hand ahead of a debate in which neither candidate was allowed to bring notes. Photo:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db63dda8b1ad23449087abe5fd35fe08cf8569f8707ce305d9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db63dda8b1ad23449087abe5fd35fe08cf8569f8707ce305d9 .

RYAN demonstrated his workout technique at a Wisconsin gym in a photos hoot for Time last December. Six outtakes that went viral and became memes yesterday:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db5e66de2bf1c8631265a33c893c25d59b2321140b61d673ca
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db5e66de2bf1c8631265a33c893c25d59b2321140b61d673ca .

HUMA ABEDIN, Hillary Clinton's aide and Anthony Weiner's wife, arranged for Ben Affleck to shoot some of his new movie "Argo" - about the Iranian hostage crisis - at the State Department:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db8396a2ce94cce93b1baba200feeca828d0ec36f58bee93d0
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db8396a2ce94cce93b1baba200feeca828d0ec36f58bee93d0 .

RYAN and BIDEN told People Magazine what's on their iPods: "Favorite song on the campaign trail? Biden chose the soulful and sultry love song 'You Are The Best Thing,' by Ray LaMontagne, while Ryan went with AC/DC's hard-rocking 'It's a Long Way to the Top.' Sentimentality also hit different notes in the category 'song that reminds me of home.' 'When Irish Eyes Are Smiling,' said Biden. ... And Ryan? 'At Wisconsin Badgers [college] football games in Madison, they start every fourth quarter with House of Pain's 'Jump Around,' so [that song] brings me back to Wisconsin.'"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db5c6dc6c1536656ffe1536ff2b35db45973958da71abfc81a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db5c6dc6c1536656ffe1536ff2b35db45973958da71abfc81a

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Hang up on this dude, man." - An Ohio radio host ends an interview with Senate candidate Josh Mandel Thursday after a contentious back-and-forth exchange over the state treasurer's hiring practices
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db403de30c9b6d9472777a915829806bfa179e4b25ac1e9607
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b3e52f6a68ca2db403de30c9b6d9472777a915829806bfa179e4b25ac1e9607

** The award-winning PBS program FRONTLINE presents a dual biography of the two presidential candidates -- The Choice 2012. Going beyond campaign ads, sound bites, caricature and spin, The Choice 2012 provides a thoughtful, in-depth examination of President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney as leaders and as people. The widely respected FRONTLINE political team conducted more than 40 exclusive interviews with colleagues, classmates, close friends and family members of both candidates to develop a definitive portrait of each man that should be considered essential viewing for all voters seeking to make an informed choice for president in November. To stream and watch the program now,
click here (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562122cf2b78268262c0939acd6382a0112db750b3c51d51a6be8
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a4ff6b970e9562122cf2b78268262c0939acd6382a0112db750b3c51d51a6be8 ). Don't miss The Choice 2012 only on PBS.org**

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