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Exclusive: Clinton would dominate 2016 Iowa caucuses, PPP shows

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By ALEXANDER BURNS
<http://www.politico.com/reporters/AlexanderBurns.html>| 11/8/12
4:36 PM EST

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would start out as a dominant favorite
in the 2016 Iowa caucuses if she chooses to run for president, a new survey
from Public Policy Polling finds.

The PPP poll, which was shared exclusively with POLITICO, shows Clinton
taking 58 percent of the Iowa vote in a hypothetical presidential run. Vice
President Joe Biden trails far behind at 17 percent, followed by New York
Gov. Andrew Cuomo at 6 percent and Massachusetts Sen.-elect Elizabeth
Warren at 3 percent.

None of the other Democrats tested – Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, Montana
Gov. Brian Schweitzer, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick and Virginia Sen.
Mark Warner – cracked 1 percent in the poll.

If Clinton doesn’t run, Biden would jump into the lead with a
less-commanding 40 percent of the vote, with Cuomo rising to 14 percent and
Warren up to 9 percent. In the event that neither Clinton nor Biden runs,
Cuomo draws 30 percent to Warren’s 13 percent, with 46 percent of voters
unsure who they’d support.

As one would expect, Clinton and Biden are by far the best-known and
best-liked of the Democrats’ potential 2016 field. Both are universally
known and have approximately equal favorability ratings: Clinton gets a
positive response from 86 percent of Democrats and a negative response from
11 percent. For Biden, those numbers are 85 percent positive, 15 percent
negative.

Of the other candidates listed, only Andrew Cuomo was known to a majority
of Iowa respondents. Thirty-eight percent had a favorable impression of
him, while 16 percent had an unfavorable impression.

O’Malley, Patrick, Schweitzer, Warner and Warren all drew “not sure”
answers from a majority of respondents, meaning they have plenty of room to
grow as 2016 approaches.

From the list of pols PPP tested, Biden and O’Malley are viewed as most
likely to run for the White House in four years. Clinton has said she has
no intention of running for president, though many in the party believe she
might change her mind. Warren has ruled out a White House bid, but hope
springs eternal among her liberal fan base.

All the usual caveats apply here: a poll can’t predict events four years
down the line and there are Democrats viewed as potential candidates who
weren’t included, such as Sens. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Kirsten
Gillibrand of New York.

But the big picture here speaks for itself: Clinton looms over the
Democratic presidential field and will likely continue to do so for the
foreseeable future.

The full poll, which you can see
here,<http://images.politico.com/global/2012/11/iowademocrats2016.html>tested
391 Iowa Democrats on Nov. 3 and 4 – before the results of the 2012
presidential race were known.

* Read more about: Joe Biden
<http://www.politico.com/p/pages/joe-biden>, Hillary
Clinton <http://www.politico.com/p/pages/hillary-clinton>,
Iowa<http://dyn.politico.com/tag/iowa>,
Andrew Cuomo <http://dyn.politico.com/tag/andrew-cuomo>, Elizabeth
Warren<http://dyn.politico.com/tag/elizabeth-warren>,
2016 <http://dyn.politico.com/tag/2016>, 2012
Elections<http://dyn.politico.com/tag/2012-elections>,
Public Policy Polling <http://dyn.politico.com/tag/public-policy-polling> *


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Alexander Snyder-Mackler
(302) 598-867