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By Seung Min Kim (
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skim@politico.com or @seungminkim)

HOUSE DEMS: DON'T GET YOUR HOPES UP - POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt notes that while things are looking up for Democrats in Senate races and the battle for the White House, it's not trickling down to the House: "It's a reality that Democratic higher-ups are loath to admit publicly. But privately, many of the consultants and donors involved in House campaigns acknowledge that Democrats likely will fall short of the 25 seats they need to seize control of the lower congressional chamber. Unlike the battles for the White House and Senate - both which seem to be breaking for Democrats - there's been little shift in momentum in the race for the House. Both parties are moving their resources from race
to race in an attempt to find opportunities. But neither side is cracking through in a way that would lead to a sea change on Election Day. The question, Democrats concede, isn't whether they nab 25 seats - it's whether they can break out of a single-digit gain into double digits ... One senior Democratic strategist deeply involved in congressional races said, 'The euphoria over Obama hasn't quite caught up to the House.'"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0c82d7ef3de77a7658607e407719ac7e4225a6d1463cf9f8e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0c82d7ef3de77a7658607e407719ac7e4225a6d1463cf9f8e

--While Dems shouldn't bet on taking over the House, they can make a little headway in Illinois, where redistricting played heavily in their favor. Your Huddle host lays out the state of play in the Land of Lincoln:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0363111b487397043066dc26c4449c34c63b430015b11b04c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0363111b487397043066dc26c4449c34c63b430015b11b04c

TOP TARGETS FOR DEMS, GOP? -- Which House members are Democrats and Republicans eyeing the most for a November knockout? The Hill takes a look in a pair of stories that looks at the top Democrats that Republicans would love to defeat, and vice versa. Key targets for Republicans include Democratic Reps. Larry Kissell of North Carolina, Kathy Hochul of New York and David Cicilline of Rhode Island. Key target for Democrats include Republican Reps. Steve King of Iowa, Allen West of Florida and Dan Lungren of California.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa038e56faf994e4ec283233315d7320e66479096ec09475567
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa038e56faf994e4ec283233315d7320e66479096ec09475567 and
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa056b1d921089669603549315eccfa527b15096e602575d44d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa056b1d921089669603549315eccfa527b15096e602575d44d

SENATE RACE'S 'NORTH DAKOTA NICE' - From Minot, N.D., The New York Times's Jonathan Weisman profiles the battle between Heidi Heitkamp and Rick Berg: "Senate Republicans considered the state in their column when Senator Kent Conrad, a veteran Democrat, announced his retirement last year. But with shoe leather, calibrated attacks and likability - an intangible that goes far in North Dakota - Ms. Heitkamp has made this a real fight. Though North Dakota is deeply conservative and is on no one's presidential map as a question mark, this race could be one of the biggest surprises of the 2012 contests. And, like all close races this year, it could help decide control of the Senate. Even the
National Republican Senatorial Committee conceded in its most recent attack ad here that Ms. Heitkamp is making headway. "Heidi Heitkamp: You might like her, but on the issues she's wrong for North Dakota," it said.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0fa5d93c31c8fe164916e7f038c5fc0276cb079e9766bf913
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0fa5d93c31c8fe164916e7f038c5fc0276cb079e9766bf913

TESTER ROCKS WITH PEARL JAM - POLITICO's Manu Raju, from Missoula, Mont., wins the award for the best assignment of the weekend: "Sen. Jon Tester's flat-top haircut is probably the last thing you'd think gives the 56-year-old wheat farmer a connection to the iconic grunge band Pearl Jam. But the barber who gave Tester his first buzz cut wasn't just the mayor of the small town in which the first-term senator grew up - he also is the father of the band's bassist, Jeff Ament. The Democrat now is cashing in on his 37-year friendship with Ament. The two headlined a raucous rally here Sunday of some 500 cheering Pearl Jam fans and Tester supporters on the University of Montana campus, followed by
a fundraiser with the rockers. The day wrapped up with a special treat for the band's legion of fans: Its lone U.S. concert this year not affiliated with a music festival."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0666601e87f8466a4bc8ea81810c36250beef8ef1e74d2e2d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0666601e87f8466a4bc8ea81810c36250beef8ef1e74d2e2d

OHIO SENATE: BROWN RUNS AS PROUD LIBERAL -- POLITICO's Kate Nocera reports: "The formula was supposed to be something like this for swing-state Democratic senators: Ditch Obama, tack to the center, fight for your political life in 2012. But Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown has tossed the conventional rulebook in the trash. He's running as a consistent, unapologetic liberal who promotes "Obamacare" and is as pro-union as they come. ... 'Voters look for authenticity. I think they look askance at someone who changes their opinions and positions at election time,' Brown said in an interview. 'You stand for something, and you stay with it. I think voters will reward that. I don't think of this as a
strategy; I think this is who I am, and this is why I run for office.'"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa09141fce6f3151f8688ce07ab29eb4cd2eaf0a4cb6359ff41
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa09141fce6f3151f8688ce07ab29eb4cd2eaf0a4cb6359ff41

--Today's POLITICO also features op-eds from the heads of the four congressional campaign committees. Here's the DSCC's Patty Murray:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa009b218da7aeae9735fc2b0beb8f3415f10a353dc7888d60f
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa009b218da7aeae9735fc2b0beb8f3415f10a353dc7888d60f the NRSC's John Cornyn:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa08ba5e5ffc0382995173dcb7bf09718fe80ad965250cbeb2d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa08ba5e5ffc0382995173dcb7bf09718fe80ad965250cbeb2d the DCCC's Steve Israel
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0980ad1d4ae0c7f6672486f078a2b47cb2d702d5537de7786
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0980ad1d4ae0c7f6672486f078a2b47cb2d702d5537de7786 and the NRCC's Pete Sessions:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa01c03200e42a2f5eada2bf6b9a99d21c76922da1c93c855b4
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa01c03200e42a2f5eada2bf6b9a99d21c76922da1c93c855b4

SHIMKUS AIDE PARTIES WITH LINDSAY LOHAN, GETS ARRESTED - The New York Daily News has all you need to know about the weekend's weirdest dust-up: "Police say Lohan took [congressional aide] Christian LaBella's cell phone so she could delete dozens of pictures and videos of her partying - and she claims he got physical with her trying to get it back. After Lohan, 26, called the cops, LaBella, 25, who works for [Illinois GOP Rep. John Shimkus], was initially charged with misdemeanor assault in the blowup at the W Hotel Union Square. But law enforcement sources said the assault rap has already been dropped ... 'It's shameful that a celebrity with a personal publicist can persecute a nice guy
like Christian,' LaBella's uncle, Peter Jessop, told the Daily News ... Lohan's father, Michael, had not spoken to his daughter but had a message for her antagonist. 'Wait till I get this guy,' he said."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0b2132e04f5039910900db915a1315010c020ccbdf7cbcec4
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0b2132e04f5039910900db915a1315010c020ccbdf7cbcec4

--Shimkus spox says "obviously, the congressman does not condone his actions."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0f126b4edf7956aa390c73b45caac11e2a374913ab35d6a53
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0f126b4edf7956aa390c73b45caac11e2a374913ab35d6a53

MORE 'FAST AND FURIOUS' WEAPONS FOUND - Univision reports: "Fifty seven previously unidentified firearms linked to Operation Fast and Furious were recovered in sites associated with murders, kidnappings, and at least two gruesome massacres. Univision News obtained the list of Fast and Furious weapons and a list containing almost 60,000 recovered firearms compiled by Mexico's Secretaria de la Defensa Nacional (SEDENA). A cross-reference of the serial numbers of the guns resulted in 96 full matches (several partial matches were discarded). The 96 firearms linked to Operation Fast and Furious all turned up at crime scenes in Mexico from 2009 to 2010."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa00f1b34d2a54b169f3c0cc3a92f57d5fcc001f9d523e0ad05
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa00f1b34d2a54b169f3c0cc3a92f57d5fcc001f9d523e0ad05

--A spokesman for Paul Ryan tells the Daily Caller that he believes Attorney General Eric Holder should resign over the botched gun-tracking operation:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0774a21dc31d0952135688315fa01e170756ed45290e1f626
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0774a21dc31d0952135688315fa01e170756ed45290e1f626

SUNDAY, SUNDAY, SUNDAY -

BLUNT ON MISSOURI SENATE: NOT ABOUT AKIN: Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) - who reversed course and is now backing Republican candidate Todd Akin in the home-state race - said the campaign was now less about the embattled Akin and more about a GOP-led Senate. Via Roll Call: "'I think anybody else would have been a candidate that clearly would have won, and Todd very well may win,' Blunt told CNN. 'He's on a ticket at a time when people look at a Senate that's not doing its work, and the only way to change that is to change the majority in the Senate.'"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa07c6f74286d6254b0fa0c0e3f2e0d53f7097669eaffe3e9e0
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa07c6f74286d6254b0fa0c0e3f2e0d53f7097669eaffe3e9e0

PAUL RYAN LOWERS EXPECTATIONS: The GOP vice-presidential nominee did his part to make sure that no one expects a game-changer debate this Wednesday: "'I don't think one event is going to make or break this campaign,' Ryan said on 'Fox News Sunday.' Ryan said the country can expect his running mate, Mitt Romney, to set up a stark choice on Wednesday, when he and President Obama debate in Denver, for the first time. 'I think what people are going to see is, who is Mitt Romney. What kind of president is he going to be and what are the choices I have. That, to me, is what matters in this particular debate, and all the debates.'
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0536465c6c11ef71201f3c41d377360b81eca95a3d11da17c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0536465c6c11ef71201f3c41d377360b81eca95a3d11da17c

BUT CHRISTIE MISSES THE MEMO: The New Jersey governor spent much of Sunday ramping up expectations for Romney at the Oct. 3 debate: "'This whole race is going to be turned upside down come Thursday morning," [Christie] told CBS 'Face The Nation' host Bob Schieffer Sunday. Christie pointed to the Republican presidential nominee's performance in the primary debates, saying the debates will be an opportunity to speak without being 'filtered' or 'spun' by Romney's critics.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa02eacb3c3c5ef11ccaec04133117e8af1cf45975d8cc69061
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa02eacb3c3c5ef11ccaec04133117e8af1cf45975d8cc69061

--Christie also says Republicans should not support Akin's Senate bid:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0034b817e50bcd7d1e60dd2565d3cb987b9a0a2009bc1258c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0034b817e50bcd7d1e60dd2565d3cb987b9a0a2009bc1258c

DEMS KEEP SMALL GENERIC BALLOT EDGE: Ten percent of voters are undecided in their vote for the candidate in their congressional district; 44% of voters are leaning Republican, and 46% are leading Democratic, according to the latest numbers in the POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Brushfire Poll.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa05ae0d2d26b940fe7979b5a4a2f7d153cb1318020954c9932
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** Access the most influential and powerful professionals in the country with POLITICO Jobs - the most effective way to reach and connect the right employers to the right professionals. With a focus on positions in politics, policy, advocacy, government contracting and communications, this one-stop employment source is the best way to find qualified candidates. Whether in print or online, post your job opening today on POLITICO Jobs:
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GOOD MONDAY MORNING, OCTOBER 1, 2012, and welcome to The Huddle, your play-by-play preview of the day's congressional news. Send tips, suggestions, comments, complaints and corrections to
mailto:skim@politico.com
skim@politico.com . If you don't already, please follow me on Twitter @seungminkim.

My new followers include but are not limited to @julieoconn and @ElaheIzadi.

TODAY IN CONGRESS - Both the House and Senate are out on the campaign trail and won't return until after the Nov. 6 election.

Off the Hill, Taxpayers for Common Sense is wading into the sequestration debate with its list of $2 trillion in potential spending cuts. TCS's Ryan Alexander and Steve Ellis will detail the cuts on an 11 a.m. conference call. The line is 866-730-7514 and passcode is 193028#.

And former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) and Donna Shalala, former Health and Human Services secretary, will speak on a panel focused on entitlement reform and health care costs at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1800 K St. NW, at 1:30 p.m.

WHAT WOULD AKIN DO? -- Roll Call's Niels Lesniewski sketches out what to expect from a Sen. Todd Akin (R-Mo.): "If Rep. Todd Akin somehow overcomes an apparent propensity to make impolitic statements and wins in November, his policy positions and freedom from leadership could make him a rogue actor in a Senate already mired in gridlock ... Akin has consistently had a 100 percent rating from National Right to Life in the House, and anti-abortion groups expect he would be a champion for their issues in the Senate. If elected to the Senate, Akin would have a much wider array of procedural options to push his causes than as a rank-and-file Member of the House because the Senate's rules
afford much more power to each lawmaker."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa030d3c23b52dbd1fe4d2be8e306a0f680dfe265e57ad673b4
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa030d3c23b52dbd1fe4d2be8e306a0f680dfe265e57ad673b4

GOV. MARK WARNER? -- A Saturday night reunion of Team Warner in Richmond stokes speculation that the Virginia Democrat will run for governor next year. POLITICO's Jonathan Martin: "Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, who in recent days has refused to rule out a 2013 gubernatorial bid, Saturday night convened a reunion in Richmond of several hundred of his former advisers and supporters. One topic, according to sources present at the trendy 'Plant Zero Cafe,' dominated the social conversations from alumni of Warner's business career, campaigns, previous gubernatorial administration and Senate tenure. 'Everyone in that room was hoping he'd run for governor again,' said a senior Virginia Democrat.
'Though it was hard to tell how much of that was pro-Warner vs. anti-McAuliffe sentiment.' That would be former DNC chair and Clinton first friend Terry McAuliffe, whose claim on the Democratic nomination next year has been widely assumed for months in Virginia political circles."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0137bdcb947c7e00472e925e826b5e2c479c0cec69d5b028f
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0137bdcb947c7e00472e925e826b5e2c479c0cec69d5b028f

BROWN, WARREN PREP FOR DEBATE 2: The candidates in the nation's most hotly-watched race will face off again tonight at 7 p.m. The Boston Herald notes: "The faceoff, sponsored by the University of Massachusetts Lowell and the Boston Herald and hosted by David Gregory of NBC's 'Meet the Press,' comes as the race has taken a nasty turn. Brown has renewed his criticism of Warren for her purported but unproven American Indian heritage. He also has lobbed charges of hypocrisy at the consumer advocate, saying her work representing big-business insurers and a steel company runs counter to her pledge to fight for the little guy ... Meanwhile, Warren has been blasting Brown for a video that shows his
staffers doing American Indian war whoops and tomahawk chops during a rally in Dorchester." The debate will stream online at
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0a8d6a4ba2af4bf2c68381268b42202052588ae96dfa968fd
www.bostonherald.com .
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa03a61c52f4efd72c0a93692951f1368989dfe7b846751d5cc
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa03a61c52f4efd72c0a93692951f1368989dfe7b846751d5cc

--The latest Boston Globe poll has Warren up five points over Brown:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0154b61905d8441e3ad092275c50404298fb6077929d51ed5
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0154b61905d8441e3ad092275c50404298fb6077929d51ed5

TISEI UP 6 OVER TIERNEY: The Boston Globe's Michael Levenson reports: "Republicans may have their best chance of winning a Massachusetts congressional seat in nearly two decades with Richard R. Tisei pulling six percentage points ahead of Representative John F. Tierney in a new Boston Globe poll. Tisei, a former state senator from Wakefield, leads Tierney, a Salem Democrat, 37 percent to 31 percent among likely voters, with 30 percent undecided. The high percentage of undecided voters reflects the electorate's lack of knowledge of Tisei as well as Tierney's relative unpopularity, even among members of his own party, said Andrew E. Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire
Survey Center, which conducted the poll."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa03dff0fe9fd61c16a697b5e31816728a522cfa2a9a6b37b94
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa03dff0fe9fd61c16a697b5e31816728a522cfa2a9a6b37b94

WEST TRAILS BY 9 IN DEM POLL - House Majority PAC, the super PAC backing House Democrats, has Democratic candidate Patrick Murphy defeating Rep. Allen West (R-Fla.) by nine points in a poll released Monday: "The survey, taken by the firm Garin-Hart-Yang Research and shared by a source with POLITICO, found Murphy leading West, 52 percent to 43 percent. There's been a dribble of conflicting polling information coming out of the South Florida race lately: West released a poll last week showing him ahead of Murphy by 9 points, while a different GOP poll found Murphy up by 4 points. ... The poll sample was composed of 44 percent Republicans and 37 percent Democrats -- a stronger GOP lean
than the actual congressional district. Murphy comes out ahead anyway in the survey thanks to an 18-point lead among independents."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa032bf259019f9dba626470f6d065b08988e03f72294de230c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa032bf259019f9dba626470f6d065b08988e03f72294de230c

CANTOR DEBATES DEM RIVAL -- House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) is set to face off against Democratic challenger Wayne Powell on Monday night in Richmond. This is only his second general election debate since his election to Congress in 2000, notes the Associated Press: "Cantor's only previous general election debate came in 2002 against Democratic 'Dukes of Hazzard' actor Ben 'Cooter' Jones. He also debated state Sen. Steve Martin in a 2000 GOP primary. Powell, a lawyer and retired Army colonel, is making his first run for public office."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa068b3728e06172ae81d5abb0fa1fc07bf7600a4bc0843c781
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa068b3728e06172ae81d5abb0fa1fc07bf7600a4bc0843c781 . C-Span will carry the debate live:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0772add06817a586a112f433f611b8a23dcce57ba86b0618b
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0772add06817a586a112f433f611b8a23dcce57ba86b0618b

REID WHACKS ROMNEY ... AGAIN - The Senate majority leader, who spends much of his time needling the Republican standard-bearer, does it one more time in an op-ed for the Las Vegas Sun: "We've learned an awful lot of troubling things about Mitt Romney recently. First, his sweeping, closed-door condemnation of President Barack Obama's supporters revealed the disdain he has for half the population he hopes to serve. Then, the limited tax returns Romney selectively released confirmed that he's willing to share information about the time he's been in the public eye and running for president, but not the time he was running the corporation he touts as his sole qualifying credential for the
highest office in the land ... The offensive comments Romney hoped would stay private and the remaining tax returns that he's still withholding from the American people are important because they are windows into the character, values and priorities of someone who could drive our nation's economic policy."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0c3903da7ba69a95484a53a7a191953ef24b5a2085775fc44
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0c3903da7ba69a95484a53a7a191953ef24b5a2085775fc44

FROSH EYE LEADERSHIP SLOTS - The Hill's Russell Berman reports that members of the House GOP freshmen class are looking to move on up the leadership chain in the next Congress, including Reps. Martha Roby of Alabama, James Lankford of Oklahoma, and Jeff Denham of California:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0bf9ec78cb385754c8b765410562f9c59504fe5a167d695d4
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa0bf9ec78cb385754c8b765410562f9c59504fe5a167d695d4

FRIDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER - Douglas Ritter was the first to answer correctly that 1952 was the last year that the House majority changed hands during a presidential election year.

TODAY'S TRIVIA - This question is courtesy of Dylan Colligan: In whose current congressional district did the English establish their first permanent American colony? First to correctly answer gets a mention in the next day's Huddle. Email me at
mailto:skim@politico.com
skim@politico.com .

NATS LINE - The Nationals fall to the Cardinals in St. Louis, 10-4. The Washington Post: The "defeat ... will bring the National League East race to Washington on Monday with a still-beating pulse ... The Nationals hoped for a happy flight home. They will instead settle for a chance to clinch first place in front of their home crowd at Nationals Park during a three-game, season-ending series against the Philadelphia Phillies."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa07d387454c90da486c786a9cec4a9d98a822d2efcd145323d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9db0dab344a25aa07d387454c90da486c786a9cec4a9d98a822d2efcd145323d

WEATHER - Your Monday morning will start out with some sun but then turn cloudy, with rain expected later in the day and highs in the low 70s, according to ABC 7's Brian van de Graaff.

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