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The Evening CSIS: Suspect Arrested, Candidates on Trade, Tell It Like It Is & More
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** Good Evening,
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Welcome to
The Evening CSIS—my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day plus HIGHLY RECOMMENDED content from around the world. To subscribe, please sign up here (http://bit.ly/ecs1s) .


** Suspect Arrested
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The man believed to be responsible for the explosion in Manhattan on Saturday night and an earlier bombing in New Jersey, Ahmad Khan Rahami, was taken into custody today after he was wounded in a gunfight with police, as the New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/20/nyregion/nyc-nj-explosions-ahmad-khan-rahami.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-ab-top-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news) reports.

Meanwhile, the Daily Beast’s Shane Harris, Nancy Youssef, and Katie Zavadski report (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/09/19/ahmad-khan-rahami-arrested-but-questions-remain-about-bombings.html) that the suspect appears to have taken US law enforcement and intelligence by surprise. Two officials told the Daily Beast that Rahami was not on any US government terrorist watch lists. Had he been, it’s possible that federal authorities would have been alerted if Rahami traveled outside the United States. Rahami has made several trips to Pakistan over the past 10 years, a senior US official told the Daily Beast. Investigators are now trying to determine where he traveled in the country. A senior official told the Daily Beast that Rahami’s oldest brother is in Pakistan now.

And, NBC has a helpful timeline of the NY/NJ bombings: “From First Blast to Arrest.” (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ny-nj-bombings/terror-timeline-ny-nj-bombings-first-blast-arrest-n650716)

Plus, CNN’s AJ Willingham provides an interesting multimedia piece: “The Amazingly Quick Capture of Ahmad Rahami.” (http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/19/us/ahmad-rahami-capture-timeline-trnd/)


** Cease-fire Over
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Air raids hit aid trucks near the city of Aleppo today, according to a monitoring group, as the Syrian military declared that a week-long cease-fire was over, as Reuters reports. (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idUSKCN11P146)


** Trade Analysis of the Candidates
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According to a new, detailed study by the Peterson Institute of International Economics (PIIE), Hillary Clinton’s policies would be “harmful” and Donald Trump’s “horribly destructive,” sending the US into a recession, as the Financial Times’ (https://www.ft.com/content/e75a9a88-7e0c-11e6-8e50-8ec15fb462f4) Shawn Donnan reports.

Dive Deeper: The PIIE study is available for download (https://piie.com/publications/piie-briefing/assessing-trade-agendas-us-presidential-campaign) .

And, CSIS’s Kevin Nealer today authored a new commentary: “Trade Politics Aren’t What You Think.” (https://www.csis.org/analysis/trade-politics-arent-what-you-think)


** In That Number
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** $10 billion
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The cost of America’s once-controversial Colombian security aid package. Source: “‘Plan Colombia’: How Washington learned to love Latin American intervention again” via the Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/plan-colombia-how-washington-learned-to-love-latin-american-intervention-again/2016/09/18/ddaeae1c-3199-4ea3-8d0f-69ee1cbda589_story.html ) .


** Critical Quote
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** "Dealing with a terrorist threat that is more atomized and pervasive will require a new approach—one that relies much more on communities, families, peers, and those closest to would-be terrorists."
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—CSIS’s Shannon Green wrote today in an opinion piece published by the Boston Globe, “Terrorism has been democratized, so too must counterterrorism.” (https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/09/19/terrorism-has-been-democratized-too-must-counterterrorism/KeWS88NAmwpKidExZByJOO/story.html)


** One to Watch
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Bonnie Glaser (@BonnieGlaser (https://twitter.com/BonnieGlaser) ) is CSIS's senior adviser for Asia and the director of CSIS's China Power Project. Bonnie is testifying on the South China Sea before the House Armed Services Committee's Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces on Wednesday. Be sure to check out ChinaPower (http://cs.is/1SZK5dr) , an interactive micro-site that examines Chinese power across five interrelated categories: military, economic, technological, social, and international image. And listen to the latest ChinaPower podcast, “Why and How China Hacks: A Conversation with Samm Sacks (https://www.csis.org/podcasts/chinapower) .”


** Optics
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(Photo Credit: John Moore/Getty Images.)
Commuters arrive to Grand Central Station today in New York City. Many commuters faced delays following weekend bombings in New York City and New Jersey. Meanwhile, some 200 world leaders are arriving to New York City for this week’s UN General Assembly.


** Highly Recommended
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Donald Trump’s lame twitter attack on
New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd is pathetic. The Washington Post’s Elise Viebeck wrote about it today (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/09/19/is-a-twitter-war-brewing-between-trump-and-maureen-dowd/) .

And, coincidentally, iTunes is now featuring the interview Bob Schieffer and I recorded last week with Dowd, on our podcast “About the News (https://itun.es/us/VYgadb.c) .”


** CSIS Today
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CSIS’s Russia and Eurasia Program hosted “Russia's Parliamentary Elections: Outcomes and Implications (https://www.csis.org/events/russias-parliamentary-elections-outcomes-and-implications) .”


** CSIS On Demand
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CSIS’s Southeast Asia Program hosted, “The United States and Myanmar: Next Steps” ahead of Aung San Suu Kyi’s historic visit to Washington last week. Watch it on demand here (https://www.csis.org/events/united-states-and-myanmar-next-steps) .


**
This Town Tomorrow
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GW's Center for Cyber and Homeland Security is hosting the "Third Conference on The Ethos and Profession of Intelligence: Looking over the Horizon (https://cchs.gwu.edu/third-conference-ethos-and-profession-intelligence) " featuring CIA director John Brennan, CIA deputy director David Cohen, and other key intelligence figures.

Join the Wilson Center at 2:00 p.m. for “Leadership and the Politics of Reform in Africa: Lessons from Nigeria (https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/leadership-and-the-politics-reform-africa-lessons-nigeria) .”

And join AEI tomorrow at 4:00 p.m. for “Winning the War Against Islamist Terror: A Conversation with Chairman Michael McCaul (http://www.aei.org/events/winning-the-war-against-islamist-terror-a-conversation-with-chairman-michael-mccaul/) .”


** Sounds
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Listen to the new CSIS Podcast, “FBI Director James Comey on 21st Century Threats” to hear James Comey discuss the evolution of security threats in the 21st century and how technology has both helped and hindered (https://soundcloud.com/csis-57169780/fbi-director-james-comey-on-21st-century-threats) national security efforts.


** I Like It Like That
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The three topics (http://www.businessinsider.com/first-presidential-debate-topics-2016-9 ) for the first presidential debate to be held a week from today have been selected.


** Smiles
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As Kathie Lee and Hoda mentioned last week when Aaron Neville was on the
Today Show, Aaron’s monumental hit “Tell It Like It Is” was recorded over 50 years ago. But the track, and Aaron’s voice, is timeless. I love this version with The Neville Brothers live from New Orleans in 1979. It’s a gem (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLluMhvjSU0 ) .


** Feedback
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I always welcome and benefit from your feedback. Please drop me a line at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org)

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The Evening CSIS is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Colm Quinn, Brandon Schwartz, Jackie Ramsay, and James Dunton.

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