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The Evening: Russian Warning, OPEC Meets, Promised Land and More
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** Good Evening,
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It's Wednesday, December 5th.


** Russia Warning
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Russia’s Vladimir Putin has warned the United States that if it walks out of a key arms treaty and starts developing the type of missiles banned by it, Russia will do the same, as the AP reports (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2018/12/05/vladimir-putin-says-if-us-donald-trump-builds-missiles-russia/2212550002/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4553d1e5a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_12_05_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4553d1e5a1-145367789) .

And, Russia will target countries hosting U.S. missiles if Washington goes ahead with plans to pull out of a landmark Cold War arms treaty, as Bloomberg’s Stepan Kravchenko reports (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-05/russia-touts-combat-lasers-amid-u-s-missile-treaty-ultimatum?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4553d1e5a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_12_05_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4553d1e5a1-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: Explore the missiles of Russia by visiting CSIS’s interactive micro-website, “Missile Threat (https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/russia/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4553d1e5a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_12_05_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4553d1e5a1-145367789) .”


** China Trade
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China is beginning to flesh out details of a weekend tariff truce with the U.S., after days of vague Chinese statements and a barrage of comments from President Trump and other administration officials, as the
WSJ’s Chao Deng and Grace Zhu report (https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-breaks-its-silence-on-90-day-u-s-tariff-truce-1543996318?mod=article_inline&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4553d1e5a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_12_05_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4553d1e5a1-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: “Enjoy the Trump-Xi Trade War Truce While It Lasts (https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/12/05/enjoy-the-trump-xi-trade-war-truce-while-it-lasts/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4553d1e5a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_12_05_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4553d1e5a1-145367789) ,” by Brookings’ Mireya Solis.


** OPEC Meeting
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On Thursday, over 200 oil industry representatives, financial analysts and journalists are expected to crowd into a basement auditorium at the headquarters of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. It is a tricky time for OPEC at its twice-yearly gathering, and, more important, for the oil industry and consumers who depend on the world’s most abundant energy source, as the
New York Times’ Stanley Reed reports (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/05/business/energy-environment/opec-meeting-oil-industry.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4553d1e5a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_12_05_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4553d1e5a1-145367789) .

And, as Reuters reports (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-iran-usa/u-s-confirms-its-iran-envoy-met-saudi-energy-minister-in-vienna-idUSKBN1O41D2?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4553d1e5a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_12_05_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4553d1e5a1-145367789) , the U.S. government confirmed that Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih met with U.S. special representative for Iran Brian Hook in Vienna today, contradicting a Saudi denial that the talks had taken place.

Dive Deeper: “Energy Fact and Opinion: Qatar Leaves OPEC (https://www.csis.org/analysis/qatar-leaves-opec?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4553d1e5a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_12_05_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4553d1e5a1-145367789) ,” by CSIS’s Nikos Tsafos.


** Afghan Peace Talks
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A fresh effort by the Trump administration this week to seek Pakistan’s help in arranging Afghan peace talks has produced no signs of progress yet but suggests that the chill between the longtime security allies may be starting to thaw, as the Washington Post’s Pam Constable reports (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/afghan-peace-talks-may-hinge-on-tentative-us-pakistan-thaw/2018/12/05/0d8f4818-f893-11e8-8c9a-860ce2a8148f_story.html?utm_term=.6675f1f6b17d&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4553d1e5a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_12_05_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4553d1e5a1-145367789) .


** Your Questions
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Do you have any questions about trade and how a changing U.S. trade policy may affect your life? If you do, please email me your question(s) to aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org?subject=Your%20Questions) . We’ll publish some of the best questions and get our experts to answer them on an upcoming CSIS podcast.


** Enroll for Spring 2019
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Now enrolling for the Spring, CSIS & Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs offer a new Executive Master's in International Relations. Information here (https://www.csis.org/programs/abshire-inamori-leadership-academy/executive-education/executive-masters-international?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4553d1e5a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_12_05_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4553d1e5a1-145367789) .


** In That Number
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** 2.7%
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The world hit another carbon dioxide emissions milestone in 2018, with an estimated 2.7 percent increase in emissions since last year.

Source: Global Carbon Project (http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4553d1e5a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_12_05_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4553d1e5a1-145367789)


** Critical Quote
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** “His was the brightest of a thousand points of light.”
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— President George W. Bush on his father President George H.W. Bush.


** iDeas Lab
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CSIS
Despite reclaiming its territory from the Islamic State, there are 3 signs that IS militants are regrouping, taking advantage of instability, and refocusing their campaign against the Iraqi government. A recent report (https://www.csis.org/analysis/islamic-state-and-persistent-threat-extremism-iraq?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4553d1e5a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_12_05_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4553d1e5a1-145367789) from the CSIS Transnational Threats Project estimates there are still 10,000 to 15,000 Islamic State militants still in Iraq.

The Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab at CSIS enhances our research with the latest in cutting-edge web technologies, design, and video.


** Optics
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CSIS
(Photo credit: Alex Brandon - Pool/Getty Images). Former President George W. Bush touches the casket of his father, former President George H.W. Bush, at the State Funeral today at the Washington National Cathedral.


** Recommended Reading
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From CSIS’s Bad Ideas in National Security Series “Bad Idea: Moving OCO Back into the Base Budget (While Negotiating a Budget Deal) (https://www.csis.org/analysis/bad-idea-moving-oco-back-base-budget-while-negotiating-budget-deal?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4553d1e5a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_12_05_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4553d1e5a1-145367789) ,” by CSIS’s Seamus Daniels.


** This Town Tomorrow
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At 9:30 a.m. (https://www.csis.org/events/maritime-security-dialogue-conversation-hon-richard-v-spencer-secretary-navy?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4553d1e5a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_12_05_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4553d1e5a1-145367789) , CSIS and the United States Naval Institute (USNI) will hold a Maritime Security Dialogue event featuring a conversation with the Honorable Richard V. Spencer, 76th Secretary of the Navy.

Later, at 10:00 a.m. (https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/dealing-the-soviet-past-there-right-memory-model-for-russia?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4553d1e5a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_12_05_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4553d1e5a1-145367789) , The Wilson Center will host a discussion on Russia’s reconciliation of the Soviet past and the crimes of the communist system, in particular state terror.

And also at 12:15 p.m. (https://piie.com/events/governor-brainard-current-financial-stability-issues?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4553d1e5a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_12_05_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4553d1e5a1-145367789) , the Peterson Institute will host a discussion on current financial stability issues with Lael Brainard, member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.


** Video
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Today, CSIS hosted a book launch event for Dr. Max Abrahm's newly released Rules for Rebels: The Science of Victory in Militant History. The book seeks to answer why militant groups, such as Al Qaeda and Hezbollah, behave as they do. Watch the full event here (https://www.csis.org/events/book-launch-rules-rebels?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4553d1e5a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_12_05_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4553d1e5a1-145367789) .


** Podcasts
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Die Welt
Into Africa, CSIS's latest podcast, shatters the narratives that dominate U.S. perceptions of Africa. Host Judd Devermont, CSIS's Africa program director, sits down with policymakers, journalists, academics and other trailblazers in African affairs to shine a spotlight on the faces spearheading cultural, political, and economic change on the continent.

Listen on SoundCloud (https://soundcloud.com/csis-57169780/music-is-the-weapon-of-the-people?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4553d1e5a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_12_05_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4553d1e5a1-145367789) or Apple Podcasts (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/into-africa/id1441573078?mt=2&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4553d1e5a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_12_05_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4553d1e5a1-145367789) .


** Smiles
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"I believe in the promised land.”

This great clip (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AB-pJHfSKcQ&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4553d1e5a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_12_05_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4553d1e5a1-145367789) of Springsteen in ‘78 made me smile today. I hope it makes you smile too.
I invite you to email me at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org) and follow me on Twitter @handrewschwartz (https://www.twitter.com/handrewschwartz?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4553d1e5a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_12_05_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4553d1e5a1-145367789)

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The Evening is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Emma Colbran and Brad Honigberg.

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