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Presented by the National Association of Manufacturers: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day Dec 13, 2018 View in browser
By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman, Daniel Lippman, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Presented by

ALERT -- PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP will be on Fox News' "Outnumbered Overtime" with Harris Faulkner at 1 p.m.

BULLETIN ... WAPO'S SPENCER HSU and TOM JACKMAN: "Russian Maria Butina pleads guilty in case to forge Kremlin bond with U.S. conservatives": "Maria Butina, 30, became the first Russian national convicted of seeking to influence U.S. policy in the run-up and through the 2016 election as a foreign agent, agreeing to cooperate in a plea deal with U.S. investigators in exchange for less prison time. ... Butina faces a possible maximum prison sentence of five years followed by deportation." WaPo

THE HOUSE has gaveled out of session until next Wednesday with no government-funding solution in the offing. That will leave an evening session Wednesday, Thursday and Friday to prevent the shutdown.

-- JUST POSTED ... PALM BEACH POST: "BREAKING: Trump plans 16-day holiday visit to Mar-a-Lago"

HOUSE DEMOCRATIC LEADER NANCY PELOSI at her weekly press conference said she has not spoken to TRUMP since they talked by phone Tuesday -- a conversation she characterized as "amicable." She indicated there is support on Capitol Hill for a long-term continuing resolution for all seven funding bills and that the president is the only obstacle in making progress.

-- PELOSI RAPPED TRUMP for saying he would be "proud" to shut down the government. "Perhaps he doesn't understand people need their paychecks. Maybe that's not the life he leads."

TAX RETURNS ... NYT'S SHERYL GAY STOLBERG (@SherylNYT): ".@NancyPelosi says House Ways and Means Committee will 'take the first steps' toward obtaining @realDonaldTrump's tax returns."

MARIANNE LEVINE: "Senate passes compromise bill to combat sexual harassment on Capitol Hill": "Under the compromise legislation, members of Congress will be held liable for all forms of harassment and retaliation for harassment claims and will also be required to reimburse the Treasury Department for harassment settlements. ... The House is expected to take up the legislation soon." POLITICO

-- THE HOUSE just passed the bill by unanimous consent as well.

2018 WATCH -- "Federal Judge Strikes Down Poliquin's Challenge To Maine's Ranked-Choice Voting Law," by Maine Public Radio's Steve Mistler: "The 30-page ruling by U.S. District Court Judge Lance Walker is a significant blow to [Rep. Bruce] Poliquin's quest to retain his seat, as well as Republicans' vigorous campaign to challenge the legality of election law Maine voters approved two years ago. Not only did Walker disagree with the array of constitutional claims Poliquin's attorneys made against the law, but he also declined to grant Poliquin's request to order a new election in Maine's 2nd Congressional District race." MPR

Good Thursday afternoon. JMART SCOOP ... NYT'S JONATHAN MARTIN (@jmartNYT): "News: Warren had Bernie over to her DC condo last night, per two Dems. No commitments made by either, i'm told."

THE INVESTIGATIONS ... NBC'S CAROL LEE, KRISTEN WELKER and NICOLLE WALLACE: "Trump confides to friends he's concerned about impeachment": "Trump's fear about the possibility has escalated as the consequences of federal investigations involving his associates and Democratic control of the House sink in, the sources said, and his allies believe maintaining the support of establishment Republicans he bucked to win election is now critical to saving his presidency. ...

"The president has yet to acquire a team to combat the expected influx of congressional investigations and continued fallout from multiple federal investigations of his associates. He's been calling around to his friends outside the White House and allies on Capitol Hill to vent and get the input. On Wednesday the president wasn't in the Oval Office until noon." NBC

-- WAPO'S CAROL LEONNIG: "Federal judge seeks documents related to Michael Flynn's January 2017 interview with FBI agents"

ZACH WARMBRODT: "Hensarling, Waters bill stalls amid dispute with Trump administration"

A message from the National Association of Manufacturers:

End the HIT now! Americans already struggle with rising health care costs. Congress must protect Americans from the Health Insurance Tax (HIT), the Medical Device Tax and the "Cadillac" Tax. After 2019, the HIT will impact approximately 140 million Americans, increasing health care costs for manufacturers and workers. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=17aeb20c56d979410654c04528b9fde910ae5ec2d64edf44a4650f41428094556db4201044d935400826f0bef06ea4cf

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION -- NYT'S HIROKO TABUCHI: "The Oil Industry's Covert Campaign to Rewrite American Car Emissions Rules": "When the Trump administration laid out a plan this year that would eventually allow cars to emit more pollution, automakers, the obvious winners from the proposal, balked. The changes, they said, went too far even for them. But it turns out that there was a hidden beneficiary of the plan that was pushing for the changes all along: the nation's oil industry. ...

"The Trump plan, if finalized, would increase greenhouse gas emissions in the United States by more than the amount many midsize countries put out in a year." NYT

HEADS UP -- "How U.S.-China tensions could get a lot worse," by Wesley Morgan and South China Morning Post's Minnie Chan: "Rising tensions over Beijing's accelerating military buildup in the South China Sea are stoking fears of a major-power clash between China and the United States - fueling urgent calls for new security talks before the two nations stumble into a shooting war.

"But the worries come amid a dearth of official dialogue between two of the world's largest militaries, and as U.S. leaders espouse an increasingly harder line against China's actions. ... Military experts say the showdown could easily spin out of control." POLITICO

WHAT'S ON THE PRESIDENT'S MIND -- @realDonaldTrump at 7:38 a.m.: "I often stated, 'One way or the other, Mexico is going to pay for the Wall.' This has never changed. Our new deal with Mexico (and Canada), the USMCA, is so much better than the old, very costly & anti-USA NAFTA deal, that just by the money we save, MEXICO IS PAYING FOR THE WALL!"

WAPO FACT CHECK: "'Boy, this is a stretch,' said William Hoagland, the former Republican staff director of the Senate Budget Committee." WaPo

... at 8:17 a.m.: "I never directed Michael Cohen to break the law. He was a lawyer and he is supposed to know the law. It is called 'advice of counsel,' and a lawyer has great liability if a mistake is made. That is why they get paid. Despite that many campaign finance lawyers have strongly......"

... at 8:25 a.m.: "....stated that I did nothing wrong with respect to campaign finance laws, if they even apply, because this was not campaign finance. Cohen was guilty on many charges unrelated to me, but he plead to two campaign charges which were not criminal and of which he probably was not..."

... at 8:34 a.m.: "....guilty even on a civil bases. Those charges were just agreed to by him in order to embarrass the president and get a much reduced prison sentence, which he did-including the fact that his family was temporarily let off the hook. As a lawyer, Michael has great liability to me!"

... at 11:07 a.m.: "They gave General Flynn a great deal because they were embarrassed by the way he was treated - the FBI said he didn't lie and they overrode the FBI. They want to scare everybody into making up stories that are not true by catching them in the smallest of misstatements. Sad!......" ... More context from Caitlin Oprysko, Josh Gerstein and Darren Samuelsohn

THE LATEST IN WISCONSIN ... AP'S RILEY VETTERKIND: "Scott Walker defends controversial lame-duck bills on social media": "Gov. Scott Walker on Tuesday defended several measures included in lame-duck bills Republicans passed last week that would strip the incoming governor and attorney general of some of their powers, while saying he is considering at least one line-item veto. In a social media post Walker, who is still reviewing the legislation, sent the clearest sign yet he intends to sign the bills into law." AP

-- MEANWHILE, IN NEW JERSEY ... NYT'S NICK CORASANITI in Trenton: "Democrats in New Jersey Have a Firm Grip on Power. They Want Even More": "They are seeking to make Republicans a permanent minority by essentially writing gerrymandering into the State Constitution. ... Even some national Democratic leaders have criticized the plan." NYT

2020 WATCH -- "Democrats shift toward impact on jobs as climate change moves to the front of the 2020 agenda," by WaPo's Michael Scherer: "Spurred by dire scientific warnings and new Capitol Hill protests, Democrats preparing to run for president have been rushing to shift their plans for combating climate change, highlighting an issue once considered a political liability ...

"At the core of the push is a broader effort by some party leaders to reframe the political debate over climate away from policies that would impose new costs on carbon pollution - through taxes or a cap-and-trade program - toward a focus on investing in energy conservation and efficiency as a way to spark economic development, especially in economically depressed areas." WaPo

-- LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: "Bustos taps ex-chief Jaslow as new DCCC executive director"

HEADLINES THE PRESIDENT WON'T LIKE -- "How Trump Let His Goal of Building a Border Wall Slip Away," by Bloomberg's Sahil Kapur and Steven Dennis: "Trump's best chance for border wall funding at the level he wants came in February 2018, when Republican Senator Mike Rounds teamed up with independent Senator Angus King on compromise immigration legislation. ...

"Now, with Trump and congressional Democrats at an impasse over the wall money with no clear path to a resolution bringing heightened risk of a partial government shutdown starting next Friday night, Republicans are expressing regrets over the deal that slipped away." Bloomberg

HEADLINES THE PRESIDENT WILL LIKE -- MEGAN CASSELLA: "In win for Trump, Beijing makes major U.S. soybean purchase": "China purchased 1.13 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this week, offering a sign that the two countries are beginning to make progress in alleviating trade tensions. The Department of Agriculture on Thursday reported the purchase, which historical data shows is the ninth-largest daily sale of U.S. soybeans ever." POLITICO

TOP-ED -- SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R-FLA.) in THE ATLANTIC: "America Needs to Restore Dignity of Work"

HOLIDAY PARTY CIRCUIT -- SPOTTED at the Recording Academy's holiday reception and opening of its new office Wednesday: Reps. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), David Cicilline (D-R.I.), Ted Deutch (D-Fla.), Ron Estes (R-Kan.), Grace Meng (D-N.Y.) and Norma Torres (D-Calif.), Julia Michaels, Matt Squires, Kenny Aronoff, John Troutman, Diane Blagman, Daryl Friedman and Todd Dupler.

-- SPOTTED at a Bush-Cheney alumni holiday party at the Decatur House: Ed Gillespie, Sara Fagen, Karen Knutson, Dan Meyers, Craig Stevens, Megan Bloomgren, John McConnell, Danny Diaz, Terry Nelson, J.T. Jezierski, former RNC COS Anne Hathaway, Jessica Ennis and Jeff Berkowitz.

MEDIAWATCH -- Ron Nixon will be international investigations editor for the AP. He is currently the NYT's homeland security correspondent in Washington. The announcement

TRANSITIONS -- Scott Sloofman will be staff director for the Senate Republican Communications Center. He previously was communications director for Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan's re-election campaign. ... Lauren Claffey is now a managing director and Lloyd Miller is now a senior director at Hamilton Place Strategies. Claffey previously founded Claffey Communications and is a Trump DHS alum, and Miller was previously VP of technology and talent at Delve.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Emma Barker, features editor at Time and a Hearst and News Corp. alum, and Frank Bonomo, the owner and designer at Studio Bonomo, on Monday welcomed Eve Bonomo.

A message from the National Association of Manufacturers:

The Health Insurance Tax (HIT) increases insurance premiums for a family of four by almost $500 a year. Congress delayed the HIT for 2019, but middle-class families, including manufacturing workers, need Congress to act now to delay it again-or even better, end it altogether. With rising health care costs, families cannot afford added expenses, especially when the HIT does nothing to improve health care outcomes. Americans do not want the government collecting taxes off their health care. In fact, 70 percent say they oppose the HIT. It is nothing more than a sales tax on health coverage-a tax we cannot afford. Learn more about why manufacturers oppose the HIT at
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=17aeb20c56d979415d045d81dae98ce9d655dbdd31dd00eb915de73395ea2966f86000517caadbd4bf753cdefb56e78f

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