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Presented by Better Medicare Alliance: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day Nov 27, 2018 View in browser
By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman and Daniel Lippman

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DRIVING THE DAY
COULD A SHUTDOWN SIDELINE MUELLER? ... ONE OF THE SEVEN appropriations bills that needs to get passed in the next 10 DAYS is the Commerce, Justice, Science bill, which has some funding for BOB MUELLER'S probe of the White House. If there's a shutdown, it will be up to PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP whether to make Mueller essential, or keep him sidelined until Congress finds a funding solution. This is chatter that is picking up on the Hill. ...

... WONDER WHAT HE'LL DO!

SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN ... JOHN BRESNAHAN, BURGESS EVERETT and SARAH FERRIS: "Republicans at Trump's mercy in volatile border wall battle": "House Republican leaders are heading to the White House on Tuesday afternoon as GOP leaders try to placate President Donald Trump and avoid a partial government shutdown on Dec. 7.

"Senate GOP leaders have discussed with the president the possibility of providing Trump with $5 billion in guaranteed money for the wall but spread over two years, according to two Republicans familiar with internal discussions. Trump has not ruled out the idea, according to a Republican senator, but it's unclear whether Democrats will go along with that minor concession. ...

"There's still no clear way out of a bipartisan jam: Republicans promised Trump that they would fight for his wall money after the election. And Democrats say they already have a deal on $1.6 billion in border security, far less than the $5 billion preferred by the president and his allies in Congress.

"Senate Appropriations Chairman Richard Shelby of Alabama said Trump personally made clear to him before Thanksgiving that anything less than $5 billion would be unacceptable. But Shelby said Trump's willingness to deal will depend on exactly how Congress would dole out the money - with the goal of an extended lifespan for the project which will cost more than $25 billion." POLITICO

REPUBLICANS TRULY BELIEVE that Democrats will support legislation that includes wall money because they don't want to have to deal with a funding crisis next year. Many of the Democrats we speak to are skeptical of that -- especially in the House -- but this all has to be resolved over the next few days.

DRAMA, DRAMA, DRAMA ... "Anti-Pelosi forces stumble over strategy," by Heather Caygle and Rachael Bade: "The push to block Nancy Pelosi from the speakership is sputtering amid disagreements between her Democratic critics over their strategy and endgame, just days ahead of a critical caucus vote.

"Some sources close to the group have privately accused one of its leaders, Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), of freelancing - publicly pushing a potential compromise with Pelosi that not every member supports or was even aware was on the table.

"The anti-Pelosi forces have been struggling to regain their footing in the last several days after the longtime Democratic leader picked off two of its members, including a potential challenger. And the conflict over strategy among the group's dozen-plus members threatens to thwart their plan to deny Pelosi the gavel.

"Still, the group got a much-needed boost on Monday: Rep.-elect Gil Cisneros of California, whose race was just called, has signed onto the group's letter vowing to defeat Pelosi on the House floor." POLITICO

-- THE DAILY BEAST'S SAM STEIN and LACHLAN MARKAY: "Centrist Group Behind Pelosi Holdouts Plotted to Make Her 'Bogeyman'"

Good Tuesday morning. HOUSE FRESHMEN come back into town today.

HOUSE DEMOCRATS meet again this afternoon, ahead of the internal party election tomorrow.

NARRATIVE ALERT ... Pelosi only needs to win with half of the caucus -- something around 120 votes. If she doesn't get to 218 -- which she'll need to get to on the floor in January -- you'll hear a lot of grumbling from her opponents that she can't win the speakership. But that's simplistic and not necessarily true. It's a lot easier to cast a vote against Pelosi in the closed election than it is on the floor, in public. Some people will take the opportunity to vote against her in closed session so they can say they tried to stop her, but couldn't.

TRUMP SPEAKS TO WSJ'S BOB DAVIS ... "Transcript of President Trump's Interview With The Wall Street Journal: President discusses U.S.-China trade, including the possibilities of additional tariffs; plant closures at GM, and Fed Chairman Jay Powell": WSJ

-- THE GUARDIAN ... "May's Brexit deal sounds like a 'great deal for the EU,' says Donald Trump": "Donald Trump has delivered a weighty blow to Theresa May's hopes of steering her Brexit deal through parliament, saying it sounded like a 'great deal for the EU' that would stop the UK trading with the U.S. ...

"'Sounds like a great deal for the EU,' the president said. 'I think we have to take a look at, seriously, whether or not the UK is allowed to trade. Because, you know, right now, if you look at the deal, they may not be able to trade with us ... I don't think that the prime minister meant that. And, hopefully, she'll be able to do something about that.'" The Guardian

A message from Better Medicare Alliance:

Seniors need Congress to act now. Delay of the 2020 Health Insurance Tax (HIT) would preserve affordable access to needed coverage and care for seniors, individuals with disabilities, and low-income beneficiaries in Medicare Advantage. Learn More.

TRUMP RALLIES IN MISSISSIPPI ... JAMES ARKIN in Biloxi, Miss.: "Trump drags Hyde-Smith across the finish line": "Donald Trump returned to Mississippi on Monday to squash any Democratic hopes of closing out the 2018 midterms with a miracle. The president [held] two rallies with Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith on the eve of a runoff to ensure his base turns out to vote in a race that was expected to be much less competitive just weeks ago.

"Democrats saw an opening to potentially contest the race after a controversial remark the Republican senator made about being first in line to attend a 'public hanging.' Republicans responded with a massive, party-wide investment to prevent a repeat of their disastrous special election loss in Alabama last year. National money and staff from both parties flooded in as the race tightened heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.

"Republicans remain confident Hyde-Smith will win, but Trump's visit shows the party is leaving nothing to chance. 'Don't take any chances,' Trump implored his supporters at the first rally. 'You have to vote. We cannot allow Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer to erode [GOP control of the Senate] by winning the great state of Mississippi.'" POLITICO

-- WAPO'S MATT VISER and DAVE WEIGEL: "Democrats push to mobilize black Mississippi voters in racially charged Senate runoff"

-- "Google wants its donation back from Hyde-Smith campaign," by John Hendel ... "San Francisco Giants owner's Hyde-Smith donation sparks calls for team boycott," by Carla Marinucci

2020 WATCH ... THAT DIDN'T TAKE LONG! -- "Beto O'Rourke changes his mind: He's not ruling out 2020 anymore," by David Siders in El Paso, Texas: "Beto O'Rourke said Monday that he is no longer ruling out a run for president in 2020, a reversal that thrilled his legion of loyal supporters while clouding an already-crowded Democratic primary field.

"'Running for Senate, I was 100 percent focused on our campaign, winning that race and then serving the next six years in the United States Senate,' the Texas congressman told reporters after a town hall forum here. 'Now that that is no longer possible, you know, we're thinking through a number of things.'

"Asked if his position on 2020 is different than it was before the November election, when he said he would not run for president, O'Rourke said, 'Yeah, yeah it is.'" POLITICO

-- FLASHBACK: BETO told NBC'S GARRETT HAAKE in Houston during the campaign that he would not run in 2020 no matter what happened in the Senate race. The clip

A NOT-SO-LAME DUCK ... BRIAN FALER: "House Republicans unveil giant tax package": "House Republicans on Monday evening unexpectedly released a 297-page tax bill they hope to move during the lame-duck session of Congress.

"The legislation would revive a number of expired tax provisions known as 'extenders,' address glitches in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and make a range of changes to savings- and retirement-related tax provisions. Other parts of the bill would revamp the IRS, provide new tax breaks for start-up businesses and offer assistance to disaster victims.

"The measure amounts to House Republicans' opening bid in negotiations with the Senate. They'll need Democratic support there to move any changes, and it's unclear lawmakers will agree to any of the provisions before adjourning for the year. The bill's unveiling came only hours after Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), the ranking Democrat on the Finance Committee, complained the House GOP had provided little inkling of what exactly they want to do on taxes in the lame duck. His spokesperson later gave the measure a frosty reception.

"'The first time Finance Committee Dems saw Brady's legislation was in his press release,' Wyden spokeswoman Rachel McCleery tweeted Monday evening. 'There was no communication from his staff, including a heads up that something was coming. That is not how you negotiate.'" POLITICO

THE INVESTIGATIONS ... JOSH GERSTEIN: "Mueller says Manafort breached plea deal by lying": "Special counsel Robert Mueller is accusing former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort of violating the plea deal he agreed to earlier this year by repeatedly lying to prosecutors and FBI agents during recent debriefing sessions.

"In a report filed with a federal judge Monday evening, Mueller's office alleged that Manafort 'committed federal crimes by lying to the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Special Counsel's Office on a variety of subject matters.' Prosecutors said the alleged lies leave Manafort exposed to the possibility of a more severe prison sentence under federal guidelines, but they did not elaborate on what exactly he allegedly lied about." POLITICO

NEW ADDITIONS TO POLITICO'S BEST-IN-CLASS HILL TEAM ... MARIANNE LEVINE and SARAH FERRIS are joining POLITICO's Congress team. LeVine -- a Stanford grad -- covered labor, and broke the story of Andy Puzder's domestic abuse allegations. Ferris -- a Connecticut native and GW grad (great combo) -- moves over from the budget team. The full memo, from Paul Volpe and Mike Zapler

THE JUICE ...

-- CHRISTIANS UNITED FOR ISRAEL is spending $100,000 walloping SEN. RAND PAUL (R-KY.) for putting a hold on the U.S.-Israel Security Act. The ad is running on Fox News, and it questions whether Paul will stand with Trump and Israel. The 30-second spot

TRUMP'S TUESDAY -- The president is having lunch with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. He is meeting with House Republican leadership at 2:30 p.m. in the Oval Office. Trump and first lady Melania Trump will participate in a White House Christmas reception at 3:45 p.m. They will also host a Christmas reception for the Secret Service.

A message from Better Medicare Alliance:


Seniors will face increased costs. Congress, delay the Health Insurance Tax and protect our seniors. Learn More.

FINALLY ... THE PLAYBOOK ELECTION CHALLENGE WINNERS: It was so close, but after both an automatic and manual recount of nearly 17,000 submissions, we have determined the winners of the first-ever Playbook Election Challenge. Connor Glisson, of Oliver Strategies in Washington, is our first-place winner (33 points) and will receive an iPhone XS. William Davis, of Birmingham, Ala., was a close second (32.89 points) and will receive an Apple Watch. Ben Watson, of Austin, Texas, finished in the third-place spot (32.48 points) and will take home a pair of Apple AirPods.

HONORABLE MENTION goes to Madison Ehlers of Orchard Park, N.Y., who correctly predicted 24 of 25 total outcomes, and Denis Manevski on POLITICO's sales team, who registered the highest score (34.26) but is prohibited by contest rules from taking home a prize.

A SPECIAL SHOUT-OUT to the Georgetown Institute of Politics for its enthusiasm and school-wide participation. The winners in the special Georgetown Playbook Election Challenge were: Tyler Tate, Logan Ortiz and Clay Volino. We'd be remiss if we didn't offer a big thank you to our partners at Insomniac Design for their assistance. Congrats to the winners and thank all who participated. See you in 2020! The results
PLAYBOOK READS


PHOTO DU JOUR: NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., celebrates Monday as the InSight mission lands on Mars. | Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP Photo

ABOUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE REFORM -- "Cotton wields sex offender report to tank prisons bill," by Burgess Everett and Elana Schor: "GOP Sen. Tom Cotton is locked in an awkward fight with fellow Republicans over their push to change federal prison sentencing guidelines. And now he has a new attack line intended to make his rivals squirm: Warnings that sex offenders could get off easy.

"A new Justice Department analysis - conducted at Cotton's request - found that the Senate's bipartisan sentencing and prison reform bill could make people convicted of some sex crimes eligible for early release. And though President Donald Trump supports the bill, Cotton says the DOJ confirmation underpins his argument that convicts of certain sex-related crimes could accrue credits making them eligible for supervised release or 'pre-release' to a halfway house." POLITICO

MEDIAWATCH -- "Netflix for Conservatives? Fox News Introduces Fox Nation, a Streaming App," by NYT's Mike Grynbaum: "If you have ever wondered about the culinary skills of a 'Fox & Friends' co-host, wonder no longer. On the new show 'Cooking With Steve Doocy,' the pink-faced Fox News anchor makes chili with Dr. Oz, shares a kitchen with Kellyanne Conway and whips up stromboli with Anthony Scaramucci and his wife. 'Steve poured the wine!' Mr. Scaramucci wrote in an email. 'It was an awesome time.' Fox News viewers are fiercely loyal to their network. But will they pay to watch a 'Fox & Friend' work a griddle?

"That, in a gourmet nutshell, is the question for Fox Nation, the subscription-only streaming service - think Netflix for conservatives - that debuts on Tuesday and ushers the cable news business into a brave, uncertain new era.

"For $5.99 a month, viewers can purchase on-demand access to live political commentary and hundreds of hours of original programming from familiar Fox News faces. Another 'Fox & Friend,' Brian Kilmeade, has a history show called 'What Made America Great.' Maria Bartiromo interviews Eric Trump for 'The First Family.' 'Borked' covers the 1987 Supreme Court non-confirmation of Robert H. Bork." NYT

A message from Better Medicare Alliance:


The 2020 Health Insurance Tax will raise costs for seniors. Congressional action is needed now. Learn More.

THE BEZOS BIZ ... WSJ'S LARA O'REILLY and LAURA STEVENS: "Amazon, With Little Fanfare, Emerges as an Advertising Giant": "Amazon.com Inc. handles nearly half of all online sales in the U.S., giving it a popular platform and a wealth of consumer data. Now it's on track to become the next juggernaut of online advertising, and its rise threatens to upend Silicon Valley's ad titans and change the way business is done on Madison Avenue. The online retailer has ascended to the No. 3 spot in the U.S. digital ad market behind the dominant players, Alphabet Inc.'s Google and Facebook Inc.

"Though Amazon has just 4% of the market now, the company is expanding its avenues for marketers and hiring aggressively for its ad unit. ... Its ad sales are expected to jump $28.4 billion over the next five years, according to Cowen & Co.-more than the combined increases in ad revenue for all television networks globally, according to figures from media-buyer GroupM." WSJ

VALLEY TALK -- "Billion-dollar deal: Google pays $1 billion for huge Mountain View business park," by Bay Area News Group's George Avalos: "In a head-spinning mega-deal, Google has paid $1 billion for a huge Mountain View business park, the Bay Area's largest real estate purchase this year.

"It is also the second-largest property purchase in the United States this year, eclipsed only by another Google acquisition, the $2.4 billion the company paid for Chelsea Market in Manhattan. The newly acquired site in Mountain View ... exceeds the size of the parcel across the street where Google is building an iconic 'dome' campus that features canopies and tents." Mercury News
PLAYBOOKERS
TRANSITION -- Roberta Jacobson has joined Albright Stonebridge Group as a senior adviser. She most recently served as U.S. ambassador to Mexico and has also worked as the top official at the State Department dealing with the Western Hemisphere.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Alex Wagner, co-host and EP of Showtime's "The Circus," national correspondent for CBS News and contributing editor for The Atlantic, where she hosts its weekly podcast, Radio Atlantic. What she thinks deserves more attention: "Climate climate climate climate change. We talk a lot about 'existential threats' in politics and in presidencies, but we're *actually* facing species collapse and our collective response has been-at best-a shockingly indifferent, 'Meh.' I'm already apologizing to my son." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Steve Bannon is 65 ... former Ambassador to Japan Caroline Kennedy is 61 ... Gail Sheehy ... Stephen Siciliano ... Sam Love ... POLITICO's Adam Cancryn is 31 ... Daniel Ducassi ... Joe Solmonese ... Brian McCormack, chief of staff at DOE ... Andrea Koppel-Pollack ... Nick Massella, director of audience engagement and comms at PBS "NewsHour" (h/ts Sara Bonjean, Catherine Hill and Christine Delargy) ... Mary Vought, president and founder of Vought Strategies and a Pence alum (h/ts Russ Vought and Rachel Semmel) ... former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty is 58 ... POLITICO Europe alum Simon Taylor ... Mike Cross ... Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) is 6-0 ... former Rep. Jon Runyan (R-N.J.) is
45 ... Rich Verma, vice chair of the Asia Group and former ambassador to India (h/t Ben Chang) ... Sean Bartlett ... Marie Logsden, chief of strategy and comms for Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (h/t Gordon Bronson) ... Barry Sternlicht is 58 ...

... Libby Leist, EP of NBC's "Today" ... Nick Wittenberg, an attorney for the EPA (h/t Blair Latoff Holmes) ... Sam Wainwright is 31 ... Katie Honan ... Molly Logan Cox ... John Aravosis ... Ashley Robinson ... Susan Falconer ... Kathryn Ciano, senior regulatory counsel at Uber, who this summer married DOJ attorney Dan Mauler -- wedding pic ... Dina Cappiello, editorial director and SVP at Edelman ... Katie Campo ... Facebook's Kaiya Waddell ... Christine Taylor ... Jess Byrne Knox ... Joe Davila ... Maryanne Pintar ... Chelsie Jeppson ... Paul Nasella ... Sid Burgess is 37 ... Jason Gold of S&P Global (h/t Peter Cherukuri) ... Victoria Lai ... Jake Boatright ... Paul Maslin ... Megan
Manley (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)

A message from Better Medicare Alliance:

Medicare Advantage premiums went down for 2019 in part because the Health Insurance Tax was suspended. The return of the Health Insurance Tax (HIT) in 2020 would force 21 million beneficiaries to pay more for their Medicare Advantage coverage when they simply cannot afford it. Congressional action is needed now to delay the 2020 HIT Tax to protect seniors. Learn More.

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