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12/18/2018 10:00 AM EDT

By ZACH MONTELLARO (zmontellaro@politico.com; @ZachMontellaro)


PROGRAMMING NOTE: Morning Score will not publish from Dec. 24-Jan 1. Our next newsletter will publish on Jan. 2.

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THE TOPLINES
LAMAR'S LONG GOODBYE - We have the first Senate retirement of the 2020 cycle and 2018 isn't even over yet. Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) announced Monday that he will not seek reelection, though he will finish the last two years of his term. "I am deeply grateful, but now it is time for someone else to have that privilege," Alexander said in a statement.

Who can fill his shoes? (Please, save your Peyton Manning/Taylor Swift jokes). POLITICO's Burgess Everett has some names: "The centrist outgoing Gov. Bill Haslam (R-Tenn.) is sure to get attention. ... Alexander said Haslam and Ambassador to Japan Bill Haggerty are the 'obvious favorites ... in addition to four or five of our congressmen.'

"Rep. David Kustoff is looking at running for the seat, according to a source with knowledge of the congressman's thinking. Dr. Manny Sethi, a surgeon at Vanderbilt University, has also floated a potential campaign. ... [Former Rep. Stephen Fincher] has $1.7 million remaining from his previous bid [for the state's other Senate seat], according to FEC filings. And Rep-elect. Mark Green had begun making calls to some Republicans touting his potential as a statewide candidate prior to Alexander's retirement."

Whether Democrats can mount a competitive campaign remains an open question. Former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen's much-ballyhooed 2018 bid ended in a double-digit defeat to Republican Sen.-elect Marsha Blackburn, even though Bredesen was still popular and had been the most recent Democrat to win statewide office. Any Democrat who secures the nomination would likely face a steeper climb. After the 2018 Senate race drew a whopping $51 million in outside spending, it seems like the 2020 one is destined to be a lower-tier race - after an exciting GOP primary.

Good Tuesday morning. Pew has a deep dive into midterm voters' habits - including how easy voters thought it was to cast ballots and why non-voters didn't show up. Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, dstrauss@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com, and lbarron-lopez@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @lbarronlopez.

Days until the 2019 election: 322

Days until the 2020 election: 686
IN THE TRENCHES
TRUMP'S REELECTION MACHINE - Heading into his reelection bid, President Donald Trump's campaign and the RNC will be closely incorporated. POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "It's a stark expression of Trump's stranglehold over the Republican Party: Traditionally, a presidential reelection committee has worked in tandem with the national party committee, not subsumed it. Under the plan, which has been in the works for several weeks, the Trump reelection campaign and the RNC will merge their field and fundraising programs into a joint outfit dubbed Trump Victory. ...

"The goal is to create a single, seamless organization that moves quickly, saves resources, and - perhaps most crucially - minimizes staff overlap and the kind of infighting that marked the 2016 relationship between the Trump campaign and the party."

DEMOCRATIC INFIGHTING - Rep.-elect Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and allied group Justice Democrats could attempt to primary New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, a newly minted member of House Democratic leadership. Campaign Pro's Laura Barrón-López: "[A] person who has discussed the project with Ocasio-Cortez and her team said the congresswoman-elect has recruited an African-American woman to challenge Jeffries. ... Jeffries has sparked the ire of Justice Democrats for several reasons. The group feels Jeffries takes too much money from corporate interests, a key litmus test, and is overly friendly with banking and pro-charter school interests. But Ocasio-Cortez is also unhappy that a
campaign donation to her from Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) was allegedly used in a whisper campaign against Lee before her narrow loss to Jeffries in the recent race for Democratic caucus chair."

NC-09, CONTINUED - The state board of elections still won't certify Republican Mark Harris' win over Democrat Dan McCready, and the state's Republicans are sick of waiting, per The Charlotte Observer's Jim Morrill. The NC-09 GOP executive committee and leaders of the state party signed a resolution calling for the board of elections to certify the outcome unless it presents "clear and convincing evidence ... that any alleged voting irregularities changed the outcome of the race or there is a substantial likelihood it could have been changed." However, a quick wrap-up is unlikely to happen: The board of elections announced last week it will hold a hearing on NC-09 on Jan. 11 - well after new
members are sworn in. The state Democratic Party's chairman called the GOP's latest move "an attempt to steal an election after being caught red-handed."

PRESIDENTIAL BIG BOARD - In the dark horse category: South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg announced he will not seek a third term as mayor after his current term ends in 2019, clearing the path for a potential White House run (you may remember Buttigeig from his unsuccessful bid for DNC chair). Also worth reading: Adam Wren's profile of Buttigieg in Indianapolis Monthly, which features one giant extended metaphor on the crane game.

- Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) is getting closer to a bid. BuzzFeed News' Alexis Levinson: "Her team is actively seeking to staff senior roles on a potential presidential campaign, according to a person briefed on the outreach, and has indicated that an announcement could come as soon as this week. She's in discussions with the Des Moines-based Asian & Latino Coalition about organizing an event with them some time in the first two weeks of January."

- New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has said he's not running for president in 2020. But he did announce his 2019 agenda, which is filled with items that are more progressive than years past, including legalizing recreational marijuana and making Election Day a state holiday, per the POLITICO New York team.

PANIC BUTTON - Fresh off a midterm near-wipeout in Pennsylvania, Republicans are worried that the state could hurt the president's re-election hopes. POLITICO's Holly Otterbein: "The bleeding has led a faction of Republicans to point their fingers at the state party chairman: Val DiGiorgio, who hails from populous and increasingly Democratic southeastern Pennsylvania. ... In 2016, the Trump campaign, RNC and state GOP worked together closely to build a ground operation for the president. DiGiorgio's critics fear that, in particular, could be at risk if the party isn't fortified."

THE PRIMARY MAP - With states rushing to hold their primaries earlier in the cycle, presidential campaigns will have to rethink their strategy in 2020. At least nine states - including California and Texas - will vote on March 3, the earliest any non-"first four" states are allowed to vote. The Wall Street Journal's Reid Epstein: "Current projections show between 29% and 37% of all delegates who will select the party's nominee will be awarded by states voting March 3. In 2016, the states that voted the first Tuesday in March held 21% of delegates. ... The result is political operatives in the early states are being courted by several campaigns, mirroring the process in Iowa and New
Hampshire."

- As many as four Californians could seek the nomination, as the state's importance in the process rises, POLITICO's Christopher Cadelago: "The four homegrown, would-be candidates - Democrats Sen. Kamala Harris, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, billionaire impeachment and climate activist Tom Steyer, and Rep. Eric Swalwell - also stand to shape the early contours of the primary. ... Several Democrats cautioned that the home-field advantage for the California-based candidates will be limited ...

"'None of these candidates have a Jerry Brown-stature lock on the state,' one rival Democratic strategist said. Nor do they have a lock on the state's big-name donors, said another top aide to a probable candidate, who expects those donors to continue showering money on multiple candidates, at least until the field winnows and leaders emerge."

POLLS POLLS POLLS - The marquee race of 2019 is probably in Kentucky, where a new poll shows GOP Gov. Matt Bevin is extremely vulnerable. The Mason-Dixon survey shows Democratic state Attorney General Andy Beshear leading Bevin, 48 percent to 40 percent. Bevin is underwater, with an approval rating of just 38 percent, compared to 53 percent who disapprove (625 registered voters, Dec. 12-15).

- Another Iowa caucus tease: In a Focus on Rural America poll conducted by David Binder Research (that was scooped by POLITICO's Natasha Korecki), former Vice President Joe Biden leads the field with 30 percent, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at 13 percent, Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) at 11 percent and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) at 10 percent (500 likely Democratic caucus-goers, Dec. 10-11).

- And in a straw poll of Democracy for America members, Sanders handily wins, POLITICO's David Siders scoops. Biden and O'Rourke follow as two and three, respectively - with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) in fourth, signaling her declining stock.

NEXT UP - Former U.S. Attorney for Kansas Barry Grissom is considering a run for Senate in 2020 as a Democrat, McClatchy's Bryan Lowry reported. Lowry reported that Grissom has met with outgoing DSCC chair Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.).

OPEN SEAT WATCH - Rep. Walter Jones (R-N.C.), who has previously said this upcoming term will be his last in Congress, has been battling an unspecified illness, McClatchy's Brian Murphy reported. Jones' office said he will miss the remainder of this term but plans to be back in D.C. on Jan. 3, the first day of the 116th Congress.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Don't repeat calls for rewarding election fraud and you can have the time of your life at your local Chili's." - the Twitter account of Chili's restaurants (seriously).

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