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A Sleeper Race in
Delaware?<http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/2010/08/04/sleeper-race-delaware>

Trish Turner <http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/contributors/trish-turner> |
August 04, 2010

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To read reports back in February when New Castle County Executive Chris
Coons dared to jump into the Senate race to challenge one of Delaware's most
popular politicians, RepublicanRep. Mike
Castle<http://www.foxnews.com/topics/politics/rep.-mike-castle.htm>,
the young Democrat might as well have been committing political
suicide<http://www.foxnews.com/topics/health/mental-health-depression-stress/suicide.htm>
.

Vaunted campaign prognosticators rated the race back then "Solid Republican,
" but Vice President Joe
Biden<http://www.foxnews.com/topics/politics/obama-administration/joe-biden.htm>,
who's former Senate seat (for 36 years) the two men are vying to take, said
at the time, "I predict to you that Chris Coons is going to surprise the
devil out of them."

And he appears to be doing just that. His slow but steady rise in the polls,
coupled with a first for Castle as he dipped below the 50 percent mark in a
mid-July Rasmussen
poll<http://www.foxnews.com/topics/politics/elections-2008/exit-poll.htm>,
has some Republicans scratching their heads in wonder. Could this be a
sleeper race?

By all accounts, Castle is the odds-on favorite. Cook Political Report
senior editor Jennifer Duffy says the Republican still has a comfortable
lead with plenty of money in the bank, there has been no "forcing event" -
that is, an unpredictable game-changer, so the respected publication sees no
reason, as yet, to change its rating for the race from "Leans Republican."

"Part of it is Castle. He was the candidate Republicans needed to run,"
Duffy said, though noting, "No
doubt<http://www.foxnews.com/topics/entertainment/music/pop-rock-1955-2002/22no-doubt22-22stefani22.htm>,
Castle does have a race."

Democrats did not get their first choice in Chris Coons, though. Vice
President Biden's own son, Beau, was expected to run whenPresident
Obama<http://www.foxnews.com/topics/politics/obama-administration/barack-obama.htm>
tapped
his father for the White
House<http://www.foxnews.com/topics/politics/white-house.htm> job,
but the state attorney
general<http://www.foxnews.com/topics/politics/attorney-general.htm>
shocked
the political masses and chose, for a variety of reasons, to remain in his
current position.

Democrats then quickly embraced the young, energetic county executive,
trying to hold onto the seat that would have comfortably stayed in
Democratic hands under Sen. Biden, while Republicans relished a potentially
embarrassing pick-up that could also include the Illinois seat Obama once
held, as well.

But recent polling has given Democrats some reason to hope. While an earlier
Rasmussen poll in April had Castle at 55 percent to Coons' 32 percent, Coons
has closed the gap significantly. Rasmussen now puts Castle at 47 percent
with Coons rising to 36.

And that has national Democrats smiling. "I think it is a race that people
aren't paying attention to and that we have a tremendous opportunity to win
for a variety of reasons. Coons has cut the lead in half based on pure shoe
leather...He is a dynamic candidate, a bundle of energy," Democratic
Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Robert
Menendez<http://www.foxnews.com/topics/politics/robert-menendez.htm>,
D-N.J., said, embracing a poll Democrats often deride as being too weighted
to Republicans.

The 46-year old county executive clearly has an uphill climb, but a number
of factors are tilting in his favor, factors that make this a race to watch.
Coons is from Delaware's most populous of its three counties in a blue state
that voted for Obama in 2008 by 67 percent, and Coons is a strong orator
with a dynamic family picture and an exuberant energy that will make it
possible for him to get around this small state and without spending a lot
of cash in doing so.

Political experts say that a shortage of cash is, for now, Coons' biggest
problem. Indeed, Castle's war chest is more than two and a half times his
opponent's. But, while Menendez conceded the cash deficit, he also made it
clear that Democrats will be there to help, although the chairman would not
say exactly what the DSCC will do.

Senate Whip Dick
Durbin<http://www.foxnews.com/topics/politics/richard-durbin.htm>,
D-Ill., recently held a fundraiser for Coons in his home state. "He turned
out a heck of a crowd, and here's a guy with no base in Chicago and really
made a great presentation," Durbin gushed, adding, "As senators say from
smaller states, he's a cheap date. It doesn't take much to give him a viable
campaign, we're not talking millions for him to be viable. And he has closed
the lead."

But television advertising can be pricey in Delaware, which shares an ad
market with Philadelphia, and advertising is critical to hammering home a
message should the race tighten further as some predict. Sophisticated voter
turnout operations can also be dependent on a cash-flush candidate, though
Delaware is small enough to minimize, to some extent, a financial
disadvantage, particularly if there is outside assistance.

Still, one GOP strategist dismissed Coons' chances in the money game, "His
campaign is having trouble getting off the ground. It just came out that he
had to give himself a $250,000 loan last quarter, and Castle has vastly
outraised him."

At 71 years old, Castle chose to leave his comfortable at-large House seat
he has held for nine terms, and Democrats are clearly ready to make his age
an issue, as well as his voting record.

"Castle seems to be tired, and most importantly, he moved in a direction
totally opposite of where he has been in the past, more extreme," Menendez
accused, referencing the congressman's vote against the $862 billion
stimulus legislation, as well as health
care<http://www.foxnews.com/topics/politics/healthcare/health-care.htm>
reform.

"It's a fairly pathetic cheap shot to invoke the age card, but particularly
ironic coming right after the DSCC just spent over a million dollars trying
to re-elect Arlen
Specter<http://www.foxnews.com/topics/politics/arlen-specter.htm> who
is 10 years older than Mike Castle," blasted the GOP strategist, who also
noted that Castle recently co-sponsored the Democrats' signature campaign
finance legislation to curb political spending by corporations and unions.

Democrats are also hoping history provides a roadmap to victory. In 1972, a
young, 29-year old named Joe Biden toppled popular two-term incumbent Sen.
Caleb Boggs, recounted Sen. Tom
Carper<http://www.foxnews.com/topics/politics/thomas-carper.htm>,
D-DE. "Boggs had been our governor, our congressman, our senator. He was
chairman of the National Governor's Association...He was beloved. People
loved him, but he was older, in his 60's, and he was tired," Carper said,
echoing Menendez's line of attack, noting also that he, himself,
successfully toppled an entrenched GOP incumbent in 2000 when he defeated
Sen. Bill Roth with a message: "A Senator for Our Future."

Duffy took issue with the Democrats' attempted analogy, however, saying Bill
Roth, unlike Castle, was "in particularly bad health. He passed out twice on
the campaign trail<http://www.foxnews.com/topics/politics/elections-2008/campaign-trail.htm>."
And, Duffy noted, both Biden and Carper "got to govern in better times."

While Democrats intend to focus on Castle's age and voting record, Castle
appears to be adopting the broader GOP fiscal responsibility message this
fall, as well as pointing out the perils of one-party rule.

"Delaware is a small enough state to travel in a few hours and the
Congressman is up and down the state more than any candidate here.
Delawareans trust Mike Castle and value his independence. This race is about
reflecting the needs of the voters and they don't want a rubber stamp in the
Senate for the Administration's spending tends," said Castle campaign aides
in an e-mailed statement to Fox.

Though Castle does have to divert some time and energy at defeating Tea
Party <http://www.foxnews.com/topics/politics/tea-party.htm> challenger
Christine O'Donnell, who recently polled well against the incumbent,
political experts predict the perennial conservative challenger does not, at
least for now, pose a danger.

One notable factor in this race is its remarkable civility, though the age
issue appears to run the risk of changing the tone. Still, for now, the lack
of acrimony is notable, not the least of which because it keeps the national
spotlight off the race. One senior Democratic aide with decades of
experience in campaigns, told Fox, "If you had to pick a model of how a race
should be run, I don't think you could even create a race as calm and
civilized as this one. It's down right boring. It's the endangered species
of midterm elections <http://www.foxnews.com/topics/politics/elections.htm>,
and we haven't quite figured out if that's a plus or a minus for our guy."


Eric D. Schwerin
eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com

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