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Details: Benenson Memo on Weakened Republican Image


TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Joel Benenson
DATE: August 12, 2010
RE: Weakened Republican Image

· Today's NBC/Wall St. Journal poll underscores the fact that with fewer
than 90 days until the mid-term elections, the Republican Party's standing
is at one of its lowest points ever and its competitive position vs. the
Democrats looks much as it did in the summers of 1998 and 2002, neither of
which were “wave” elections.

· The NBC/WSJ poll shows that not only is the Republican Party's image at
its lowest point ever in their polling, their ratings are still lower than
Democrats and their party image has worsened much more than the Democrats
when compared with the last mid-term elections in 2006.

· Only 24% of Americans gave the Republicans a positive rating while 46%
were negative for a net of -22 (28% were neutral). This positive rating is
not only a historic low, it is down 9 points since May – just three months
ago.

o In addition, in July of 2006, a year in which Republicans lost 30 seats,
their rating stood at 32% positive, 39% negative for only a -7 net rating or
a change in the net rating of -15. During the same period the Democratic
rating slipped only slightly by a net of -4 points from 32/39 in July 2006
to 33/44 today.

· This overall outlook is also consistent with an ABC/Washington Post poll
from a month ago (7/13/10) that showed Americans' confidence in Republicans
in Congress to make “the right decisions for the country's future” lagging
behind Democrats:

o 73% say they are not confident in Republicans in Congress while 26% say
they are, for a net negative confidence rating of -47 points.
o Democrats in Congress are at 32% confident (6 points higher than the GOP)
and 67% who say they are not confident (6 points lower than the GOP), for a
net confidence rating of -35, which is 12 points better than the
Congressional Republicans.
· When asked in the NBC/WSJ poll whether they prefer Democratic or
Republican control of Congress after the November elections, 43% said
Democrats and 42% said Republicans. While Democrats had a 10-point margin in
2006 when they gained 31 seats, the previous two mid-terms also showed a
deadlocked preference in the summers of 1998 and 2002 in the NBC/WSJ polls.
In both of those elections, the gains were only in single digits: 5 seats
for the Democrats in 1998 and 8 seats for the Republicans in 2002.

· In addition, a Pew poll from early July showed that Republicans have a
significant image deficit among Americans on the question of which party is
“more concerned about people like me.” In that survey of 1800 Americans, 50%
said Democrats were more concerned about people like them while only 34%
said Republicans were.
--
Eric D. Schwerin
Rosemont Seneca Partners
(202) 333-1880
eschwerin@rosemontseneca.co