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The Evening: Crude Prices, Joint Exercise, Fiyo on the Bayou and More
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** Good Evening,
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It's Thursday, August 31st.

Note: The Evening will be “gone fishin’” until Tuesday, September 5. Happy Labor Day and Smile!


** Harvey Disrupts U.S. Crude Flow
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Gasoline futures soared Thursday after the largest fuel conduit in the United States reported that shipments are being sharply curtailed in the wake of Harvey and ahead of the expiration of September contracts, as the
Wall Street Journal’s Alison Sider and Neanda Salvaterra report (https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-edges-up-as-harvey-disrupts-u-s-crude-flow-1504180638?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=8eec70a420-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_08_31&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-8eec70a420-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Frank Verrastro, Adam Sieminski, Guy Caruso, and Larry Goldstein published a commentary today: “Harvey Continues to Batter Energy Markets (http://cs.is/2iKGqKF?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=8eec70a420-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_08_31&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-8eec70a420-145367789) .”


** Show of Power
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The United States and South Korea wrapped up their annual joint military exercises on Thursday by flying some of their most powerful warplanes in bombing drills in a show of force two days after North Korea fired a ballistic missile over Japan, as the
New York Times’ Choe Sang-Hun reports (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/31/world/asia/north-korea-south-korea-us-joint-exercises.html?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=8eec70a420-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_08_31&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-8eec70a420-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: See CFR’s backgrounder by Ankit Panda, “Can Ballistic Missile Defense Shield Guam From North Korea? (https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/can-ballistic-missile-defense-shield-guam-north-korea?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=8eec70a420-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_08_31&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-8eec70a420-145367789) ”


** Outside Damascus
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As international attention has shifted to the fight against ISIS in eastern Syria, a little-noticed but bitter struggle continues on the outskirts of Damascus, as the
LA Times’ Abby Sewell reports (http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-syria-east-damascus-2017-story.html?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=8eec70a420-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_08_31&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-8eec70a420-145367789) .

And, Iraq’s prime minister has declared victory over ISIS in the city of Tal Afar and the entire province of Nineveh, as VOA’s Carla Babb reports (https://www.voanews.com/a/iraq-tal-afar-islamic-state-victory/4010346.html?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=8eec70a420-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_08_31&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-8eec70a420-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: See “The Race for Deir al-Zour Province (http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-race-for-deir-al-zour-province?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=8eec70a420-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_08_31&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-8eec70a420-145367789) ” by the Washington Institute’s Fabrice Balanche.


**
Evicted
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The State Department is forcing the Russian government to vacate three diplomatic compounds in the United States by Saturday—retribution for the Kremlin’s order that U.S. staff be reduced in Russia by more than 750 people, as Politico’s Louis Nelson reports (http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/31/us-closes-russia-compounds-in-united-states-242209?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=8eec70a420-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_08_31&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-8eec70a420-145367789) .


** In That Number
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** $2.46
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Retail prices for gasoline surged to $2.46 a gallon, up 11 cents a gallon from last week in the wake of Hurricane Harvey. Source: Wall Street Journal (https://www.wsj.com/articles/gasoline-prices-surge-as-harveys-impact-is-felt-1504202779?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=8eec70a420-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_08_31&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-8eec70a420-145367789) .


** Critical Quote
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** "It’s incredibly frustrating to the military that we can’t put aside our political differences for the greater good of the country."
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— CSIS’s Kathleen Hicks via the Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/with-a-drama-filled-white-house-mad-dog-mattis-has-shown-deft-political-touch/2017/08/30/f87621f8-8d96-11e7-8df5-c2e5cf46c1e2_story.html?utm_term=.45bd07d8ac76&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=8eec70a420-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_08_31&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-8eec70a420-145367789) .


** iDeas Lab
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Die Welt In June, the CSIS Missile Defense Project released an explainer video (https://missilethreat.csis.org/system/aegis/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=8eec70a420-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_08_31&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-8eec70a420-145367789) on the Arleigh Burke-class Guided Missile Destroyer, the U.S. Navy’s primary ballistic missile defense ship.

The Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab at CSIS enhances our research with the latest in cutting-edge web technologies, design, and video.


** Optics
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Die Welt (Photo Credit: Handout/South Korean Defense Ministry via Getty Images.) In this handout image provided by the South Korean Defense Ministry, South Korea’s F-15K fighter jets drop bombs during training at the Taebaek Pilsung Firing Range today in Gangwon-do, South Korea.


** Recommended Reading
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“Shut Out of the White House, Iran Hawk Makes Public Appeal to Trump (http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/28/shut-out-of-the-white-house-iran-hawk-makes-public-appeal-to-trump/?utm_content=bufferade41&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=8eec70a420-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_08_31&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-8eec70a420-145367789) ,” by
Foreign Policy’s Dan De Luce.


** CSIS Next Week
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Join CSIS for the ROK-U.S. Strategic Forum 2017 (https://www.csis.org/events/rok-us-strategic-forum-2017-now-and-future-rok-us-alliance?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=8eec70a420-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_08_31&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-8eec70a420-145367789) , an all-day discussion on the U.S.–South Korea alliance, the North Korean threat, opportunities for regional relations among China, Japan, and South Korea, and how these will impact policy and strategy surrounding the Korean peninsula.


** On Demand
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In this new video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkCNWPj--04&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=8eec70a420-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_08_31&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-8eec70a420-145367789) from the CSIS Diversity and Leadership in International Affairs Project, professionals answer the question: Why does diversity matter in foreign relations?


** Sounds
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Smart Women, Smart Power released a new podcast today on geopolitical forecasting and its connection to predicting armed conflicts, election outcomes, and artificial intelligence.

Listen on Apple Podcasts (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/smart-women-smart-power/id924940383?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=8eec70a420-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_08_31&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-8eec70a420-145367789) or SoundCloud (https://soundcloud.com/csis-57169780/geopolitical-forecasting-1?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=8eec70a420-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_08_31&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-8eec70a420-145367789) .


** Smiles
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Despite the extreme flooding of Houston’s bayous, it is worth remembering that the word “bayou” should not imply horror. From Hank Williams to the Neville Brothers, musicians throughout the American South have sung joyously about bayous.

In the case of Hurricane Harvey, the people of New Orleans are of course sending their best wishes and prayers to Houston. And there’s no people better to send those vibes than New Orleans’ first family of funk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEz_W3qdSC0&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=8eec70a420-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_08_31&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-8eec70a420-145367789) .
I invite you to email me at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org) and follow me on Twitter @handrewschwartz (https://www.twitter.com/handrewschwartz?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=8eec70a420-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_08_31&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-8eec70a420-145367789)

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The Evening is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Colm Quinn, Sofie Kodner, and Jackie Ramsay.

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