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Presented by ExxonMobil: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Washington Oct 12, 2018 View in browser
By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer and Daniel Lippman

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DRIVING THE DAY
MBS THE REFORMER, UPDATE ... WAPO'S SHANE HARRIS, SOUAD MEKHENNET, JOHN HUDSON and ANNE GEARAN: "Turks tell U.S. officials they have audio and video recordings that support conclusion Khashoggi was killed": "The Turkish government has told U.S. officials that it has audio and video recordings that prove Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi was killed inside the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul this month, according to U.S. and Turkish officials.

"The recordings show that a Saudi security team detained Khashoggi in the consulate after he walked in Oct. 2 to obtain an official document before his upcoming wedding, then killed him and dismembered his body, the officials said. The audio recording in particular provides some of the most persuasive and gruesome evidence that the Saudi team is responsible for Khashoggi's death, the officials said.

"'The voice recording from inside the embassy lays out what happened to Jamal after he entered,' said one person with knowledge of the recording who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss highly sensitive intelligence." WaPo

-- ON JARED ... "Mohammed has billed himself as a reformer and moderating force in Saudi Arabia, and he has become a key strategic partner in particular to Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law and senior adviser.

"Kushner has tried to promote Mohammed to skeptical national security officials, who have long viewed him as an impetuous and ruthless leader who has an overly simplistic view of the complex challenges the United States faces in the Middle East."

-- AP'S JON GAMBRELL in Dubai: "Saudi crown prince's carefully managed rise hides dark side"

-- ELANA SCHOR: "Senators push vote to block Saudi arms sales after Khashoggi disappearance": "Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said Thursday that he plans to introduce a resolution of disapproval once Congress is notified of the next potential U.S. weapons sale to Saudi Arabia. Murphy and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), his ally in pushback against the arms sales, fell four votes short of blocking a Saudi weapons deal last year - and Murphy predicted that they would fare better this time around." POLITICO

-- "Jamie Dimon, Steve Mnuchin And Big Bank CEOs Set To Attend Saudi Conference Despite Journalist's Disappearance," by HuffPost's Nick Robins-Early and Emily Peck

-- WE EXPECT the Saudi affair to be a political flashpoint for the Trump administration. It was the first country he visited as president, and Kushner clearly has a rapport with MBS, the crown prince. But, in the wake of this incident, the world has questions for the kingdom. And it would appear that the White House will not be able to brush this one off.

Good Friday morning. 25 DAYS until Election Day ... NEWS ... HOUSE MAJORITY LEADER KEVIN MCCARTHY (R-CALIF.) has transferred $5.71 MILLION to the NRCC and state party committees over the last two weeks, in addition to moving $1.51 million to members. McCarthy has raised $60 million this cycle. He's transferred $18.3 million to the NRCC and state party committees and $5.77 million to members.

-- SPEAKER PAUL RYAN (R-WIS.) just took his last trip overseas as speaker, which included a two-day stop in Afghanistan with House Armed Services Chairman Mac Thornberry (R-Texas). Before leaving for election season, Congress passed a big military spending bill -- the first on-time Pentagon appropriations bill in a decade. Ryan: "After this visit, it is clear to me that the president's South Asia strategy must be given an opportunity to succeed. Fighting terrorism in this region remains in our nation's vital interest and it is clear the current momentum of our military campaign is underpinning our diplomatic efforts to set the conditions for reconciliation." Photos from the Ryan staff

THE GOP STRATEGY -- NATASHA KORECKI: "Clinton and Pelosi take star turn - in GOP attack ads": "Over the last 30 days, close to 100 Republican-funded TV spots casting Hillary Clinton, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi - or both - as villains have aired more than 34,000 times, according to data compiled for POLITICO by Advertising Analytics. In three battleground Senate races alone - Indiana, Missouri and West Virginia - ads featuring Pelosi or Clinton blanketed TV screens, running more than 1,100 times in each state.

"All told, Republican campaigns or affiliated groups sunk $28.4 million into the Clinton and Pelosi messaging over the last month." POLITICO

MARKET WATCH -- WSJ: "Global Stocks Stabilize After Steep Selloff," by Avantika Chilkoti: "Global stocks rebounded on Friday morning, calming jittery investors who had been weighing whether this week's deep selloff was the beginning of a broader downturn or simply a two-day blip. Equity markets from the U.S. to Asia have suffered the worst shakeout since February on concerns around the steep rise in bond yields and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. But stocks across Europe and Asia were trading higher on Friday morning." WSJ

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THE SHORT LIST TO REPLACE NIKKI HALEY ... GABBY ORR: "Eyeing midterm gender gap, Trump aides seek woman for U.N. post": "President Donald Trump's aides are urging him to replace departing U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley with another woman, hoping the move could help shore up support among female voters before the midterms, three people familiar with the matter told POLITICO.

"Trump aides are fleshing out a list of female candidates with experience in the foreign policy arena after top pick Dina Powell, a Goldman Sachs executive and Trump administration alumna, withdrew her name from contention, citing her desire to remain close to her young kinds, according to two people familiar with Powell's decision.

"The expanded list now includes Nancy Brinker, founder of the Susan G. Komen Breast Cancer Foundation, according to one Republican close to the White House, as well as former New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte, whom two senators, including close Trump friend Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), suggested as a good fit for the job, said two people briefed on the matter.

"The added duo joins Kelly Craft, the U.S. ambassador to Canada, on the White House's list of potential Haley replacements. Craft was at the White House Thursday to discuss the job. Outside advisers have also recommended Kay Bailey Hutchison, the current U.S. ambassador to NATO, although it's unclear if she's in contention for the job." POLITICO

THE LATEST ON HURRICANE MICHAEL -- "Hurricane Michael's awful toll: At least 3 dead, 360,000 in dark, coastal towns wiped out," by the Miami Herald's Jenny Staletovich, David Ovalle and Samantha Gross: "The awful toll has yet to be calculated, but Hurricane Michael's damage is likely to be massive along the Panhandle and Florida's Forgotten Coast, now a hellscape of flattened neighborhoods, ruined businesses and upended lives.

"At ground zero where Michael crashed ashore in Mexico Beach, house after house was razed to concrete slabs and piles of splintered wood. The place looked eerily like South Dade after Hurricane Andrew. Helicopters hovered over the state's largest mental hospital in Chattahoochee, dropping food and water after the storm left patients and staff stranded without power, communications or a way out.

"And in Panama City, powerful winds toppled train cars completely off the old Bay Line railroad tracks. As evacuees and utility trucks struggled Thursday afternoon to enter the city, the largest in the area at just 37,000, a four-mile traffic jam formed." Miami Herald ... 25 storm photos on one page

NEW -- THE REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE has made 50 million volunteer voter contacts across 28 states and 172 congressional districts - a new record for the party committee in its effort to keep the House and Senate majorities.

WHAT JEFF BEZOS IS WATCHING -- "Postal Service unveils price hikes, denies they're meant to hurt Amazon," by Cristiano Lima: "The U.S. Postal Service has proposed a series of price hikes including for a package delivery program used by Amazon, but the agency denied that the increases have anything to do with President Donald Trump's frequent attacks on the company.

"The changes announced Wednesday include an increase of up to 12 percent for the Parcel Select service. Large shippers like Amazon use that option to complete the final leg of delivery for packages. But the extent of the impact on Amazon was not immediately clear. Amazon, like other bulk users of the Postal Service, negotiates a special rate with USPS that is not publicly disclosed." POLITICO

2018 WATCH -- "Volunteers bolt Bredesen over Kavanaugh support," by James Arkin and Burgess Everett: "Tennessee Democrat Phil Bredesen is facing backlash from some of the staunchest supporters of his Senate campaign after coming out in support of Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation to the Supreme Court. Campaign volunteers have been calling to cancel door-knocking and phone-banking shifts for Bredesen since his statement backing Kavanaugh, according to an internal spreadsheet maintained by the campaign and obtained by POLITICO.

"At least 22 volunteers so far have reached out to express frustration with the decision, according to the spreadsheet. POLITICO spoke with five who contacted the campaign to vent their anger. It's a small fraction of Bredesen's total volunteer force, which numbers in the thousands, according to his campaign. But it's also just one slice of the frustration roiling Democrats since Kavanaugh was confirmed to the Supreme Court last weekend." POLITICO

MARC CAPUTO: "Shalala lags behind in seat Democrats hoped to win easily": "Former Clinton Foundation head Donna Shalala is trailing former Spanish-language TV newswoman Maria Elvira Salazar, according to a new poll of a crucial, GOP-held Florida congressional district that Democrats had once counted on as an easy pickup.

"Salazar's narrow 2-percentage point lead is well within the Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey's 4-point margin of error. But the result stands in contrast to how the Democratic nominees for Senate and governor are faring in the Miami-based 27th Congressional District - both are ahead of their Republican opponents by 4 points - providing fresh evidence of Shalala's underperforming campaign.

"The big factor: Hispanics, who account for 57 percent of the voters and who came to know Salazar relatively well over her three decades broadcasting on Spanish language networks Telemundo, Univision, Mega-TV and CNN Español." POLITICO

TRUMP'S FRIDAY -- The president will depart for Cincinnati at 3:10 p.m. At 5:15 p.m., he will hold a roundtable with supporters. At 7:10 p.m., Trump will hold a political rally in Lebanon, Ohio. He will return to Washington after the campaign event.

PLAYBOOK ELECTION CHALLENGE -- Make your picks now for the Playbook Election Challenge -- predict what will happen in key House, Senate and gubernatorial races -- and compete for prizes. The challenge


SUNDAY SO FAR ...

CBS

"Face the Nation": Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) ... Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) ... Anthony Salvanto, CBS News director of elections and surveys. Political panel: Susan Glasser, Susan Page and Jonah Goldberg

FOX

"Fox News Sunday": Chinese Ambassador Cui Tiankai ... Panel: Brit Hume, Julie Pace, Karl Rove and Philippe Reines. Power Player: Blair House, the president's guest house

NBC

"Meet the Press": Panel: Peter Baker, Lanhee Chen, Carol Lee and Andrea Mitchell

CNN

"State of the Union": Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Panel: Scott Jennings, Amanda Carpenter, Paul Begala and Symone Sanders

CNN

"Inside Politics": Mike Shear, Abby Phillip, Rachael Bade and Mike Warren

ABC

"This Week": Donna Brazile, Chris Christie, Rich Lowry and Maggie Haberman

TV SUNDAY -- Per Brian Stelter in CNN's Reliable Sources: "President Trump has turned down all '60 Minutes' interview requests ... until now. The president taped an interview with Lesley Stahl on Thursday, according to sources with knowledge of the matter. The sit-down will air this Sunday. Per one of the sources, crews were seen on Thursday taking gear into the White House, where aides were buzzing about the interview."
PLAYBOOK READS


PHOTO DU JOUR: Much of Mexico Beach, Fla., is flattened Thursday after the devastation wrought by Hurricane Michael. | Chris O'Meara/AP Photo

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION -- "Ross now recalls conversations with Bannon, Sessions about citizenship," by Ted Hesson: "Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross now recalls conversations with former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon and Attorney General Jeff Sessions about adding a citizenship question to the 2020 Census, according to a court document filed Thursday. The recollection is the latest twist in litigation over the Trump administration's decision to ask about citizenship in the decennial census. ...

"In the document submitted [Thursday], the administration said Ross
now remembered receiving a call from Bannon related to the issue in spring 2017. Bannon asked Ross if he would be willing to speak with Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach about a possible citizenship question. Kobach, an immigration hard-liner, is the Republican nominee for Kansas governor." POLITICO

FOR YOUR RADAR -- "Secret deal with Turkey paves way for American pastor's release," by NBC's Carol Lee and Courtney Kube: "The White House expects North Carolina pastor Andrew Brunson to be released by the Turkish government and returned to the U.S. in the coming days, two years after he was detained, according to two senior administration officials and another person briefed on the matter.

"Under an agreement senior Trump administration officials recently reached with Turkey, Brunson is supposed to be released after certain charges against him are dropped at his next court hearing, currently scheduled for Friday ... The details of the deal are unclear, but those familiar with the discussions said it includes a commitment by the U.S. to ease economic pressure on Turkey." NBC

-- "Stanford Republican club president, son of Obama official Susan Rice, alleges assault over Kavanaugh spat," by Casey Tolan in the Mercury News: "Susan Rice, a former national security official in President Obama's cabinet, made news last week by suggesting she might run against Sen. Susan Collins, the Maine Republican who cast the deciding vote for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

"But on the other side of the country, her son, a Republican activist at Stanford University who's a fan of President Trump, found himself in a fracas over his support for the newly confirmed justice.

"John Rice-Cameron, the president of the Stanford College Republicans, is pressing charges against another student who he says shoved him in the chest Tuesday while he was displaying support for Kavanaugh on campus. The student he accused, sophomore Melissa Hernandez, was given a citation for misdemeanor battery after interviews with witnesses." Mercury News

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MEDIAWATCH -- JACK SHAFER, "Stop the Press Before It Profiles Beto O'Rourke Again: Fine, he's not Ted Cruz. But can we move on?": "The winds of swoonery blasted through Texas this year and traveled halfway across the country to dust the Eastern media establishment with love eternal for senatorial candidate Beto O'Rourke. Not since the press corps fell in love with Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential campaign has such a sirocco of worshipful candidate profiles and commentaries appeared in the national press. 'Is Beto O'Rourke the Left's Obama-like Answer to Trump in 2020?' asked Vanity Fair.

"'Beto O'Rourke Could Be the Democrat Texas Has Been Waiting For,' offered BuzzFeed. Still more positive Beto coverage sprinkled the pages of Yahoo News, Time, GQ, Rolling Stone, the Guardian, the New York Times, Politico and Esquire as they worked off the same template. The Washington Post indulged Betomania with a feature, another feature, a column and the sort of ancillary coverage it ordinarily gives the Washington Redskins." POLITICO

-- WARREN BASS is returning to the WSJ's Review section as senior editor. He most recently has been executive editor at Penguin Press. He's also a WaPo, 9/11 Commission and State Department alum.

-- JOANNA COLES will be a part-time creative adviser for CBS News and will initially focus on "CBS This Morning." She most recently was chief content officer of Hearst Magazines and is the former editor-in-chief of Cosmopolitan.

-- Deadline: "Dana McClintock To Take Over For Gil Schwartz As Head Of CBS Corp Communications"

-- NYT'S SOPAN DEB is writing a new book for Dey Street Books called "Missed Translations," an "exploration of his 'brown' identity crisis as a first-generation American." His post on Instagram
PLAYBOOKERS
SPOTTED: former House Leader Dick Gephardt on an American Airlines flight from Columbus to DCA yesterday. He flew coach. Pic

SPOTTED yesterday at the National Law Enforcement Museum grand opening in Judiciary Square: Clint Eastwood (who gave remarks), Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser, John Ashcroft, Chuck Ramsey and Ed Cash.

SPOTTED at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America's two-day Fall National Leadership Conference at the Grand Hyatt: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), House Foreign Affairs Chairman Ed Royce (R-Calif.) and Marie Royce, Mira Ricardel, Earl Matthews, Reps. David Kustoff (R-Tenn.) and Barbara Comstock (R-Va.), Michael Makovsky, David Steinmann, Jon Lerner, Catherine Herridge, Nathan Sales, Israeli Ambassador Ron Dermer, UAE Ambassador Yousef al Otaiba, Azerbaijan Ambassador Elin Suleymanov, Josh Rogin and Eli Lake.

ENGAGED -- Niels Lesniewski, senior writer at Roll Call, proposed to Kaitlin Oujo, a foreign affairs specialist at the National Nuclear Security Administration. The couple met at a house party in D.C., and they got engaged at sunrise on Wednesday morning at the top of Cadillac Mountain in Acadia National Park. Pic

BIRTHWEEK (was Wednesday): CBS' Grace Baumann, who celebrated while covering Hurricane Michael in Florida (hat tip: Gena Wolfson) ... (was Monday): DOJ's Abby Marshak (h/t Erin Delmore)

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Rosie Gray, contributing editor at The Atlantic. How she's celebrating: "My boyfriend, Ben Judah, is taking me on a trip to the Scottish highlands and islands. He wanted it to be a surprise, so I only know where we're going because I pestered him for days. I'm hoping to buy a Gray clan tartan blanket or scarf." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: "Fox News Sunday" anchor Chris Wallace is 71 ... Glen Bolger, partner at Public Opinion Strategies, is 56 ... NYT's Michael Barbaro is 39 ... Jorge Guajardo, senior director at McLarty Associates and former Mexican ambassador to China (h/t Evan Osnos) ... John Engler, interim president of Michigan State and former Michigan governor ... Ann Morrell ... former Sen. Jake Garn (R-Utah) is 86 ... Rep. Ed Royce (R-Calif.) is 67 ... Dave Rosenbaum ... NPR's Jack Speer ... David Yepsen ... Lauren Cavataro ... Matt Bernstein ... Jamie Hennigan, VP of comms at the National Association of Manufacturers ... Debbie Berkowitz (h/t Jon Haber) ... Lawren Mills ... Will Jennings ... Ashley
Kennedy ... Collin Berglund ... Alastair Fitzpayne ... Andi Ball ... Fendy Mesy ... Lauren Blanchard, national correspondent at Fox News ... Chris Coffey, head of the New York practice for Tusk Strategies and Tusk Ventures (h/t Eric Soufer) ... Kate Nocera, D.C. bureau chief at BuzzFeed (h/t Ben Smith) ...

... Eric Wilson, chief digital officer at Definers (h/t wife Rachael) ... Steve Bryant ... Bloomberg's Anna Edney ... Christopher Kirchhoff ... Francis Thomas, head of comms at TPG Global's The Rise Fund ... Emily Beyer (h/t jeff Solnet) ... Andrea Washington ... Thomas Bowman is 39 ... Chelsea Welch ... CRC's Elizabeth Ray ... Zack Gober ... The Hill's Juliegrace Brufke ... Matthew J. Shuman ... Patsy Woods Martin ... Joshua Hone of Advoc8 ... Anna Cabral, senior adviser at the Inter-American Development Bank and former U.S. treasurer ... Amber Lyons ... Josh Benoit ... Simon Limage is 42 ... Christian Nagel ... Google's Jennifer Zeidman Bloch ... Matt Flavin is 39 ... Liz Dawson ... David
Oleksak ... former Rep. Joe Garcia (D-Fla.) is 55 ... Megan Cheney ... Kenneth Ahn ... Ted Mondale ... Rebecca Mason (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)

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