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10/19/2018 07:59 AM EDT


By Nolan D. McCaskill (nmccaskill@politico.com or @NolanDMcCaskill)

IT'S NOT OVER UNTIL IT'S OVER -- Conventional wisdom and polling say House Democrats will be in the majority next year. "And yet House Republicans -- and privately, even a few Democrats -- say the GOP could still hang on, if only by a few seats," Rachael reports. "The confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has given GOP voters a badly needed enthusiasm boost, they argue, and several races seen as unwinnable just weeks ago are suddenly back within reach for Republicans." At the same time, Democrats have pulled back from several battlegrounds they once targeted and abandoned a Democratic-controlled open seat in Minnesota.

"The environment has significantly improved over the past few weeks," said Corry Bliss, executive director of the GOP super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund. "For the first time in months, we have the wind at our backs instead of in our face. Now it is incumbent upon Republicans to keep that up." Still, "Democrats have infinitely more paths to win the chamber than Republicans do of holding it," Rachael writes. "Even Republicans admit that Democrats have already closed out about 15 races, well over halfway to the 23 seats they need to win the majority." Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1eead9e1e6a894611a97fb09d09bec0040a97fea0299889341ff62fe49032226e0fa54aeffff6d6527030f0f56192c58

Related: "Seeking Work After Congress? Sharp Partisans Need Not Apply," by The New York Times' Carl Hulse: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1eead9e1e6a89461086de2e413a9cf54af1138b3d490331114ac1c3e3b5ab7758ae293448ed54ab4242f0c9d55efa730

TRUMP PRAISES CONGRESSMAN'S ASSAULT -- With the U.S. searching for answers about the disappearance and apparent killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, President Donald Trump commended Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-Mont.) for previously assaulting a reporter. "By the way, never wrestle him," Trump said of the Montana Republican. "Any guy that can do a body slam, he's my kind of -- he's my guy." Gianforte pleaded guilty to assaulting The Guardian's Ben Jacobs, who had asked the special election candidate about the GOP health care plan. He "grabbed Jacobs, threw him to the ground and punched him," The Washington Post's Seung Min Kim and Felicia Sonmez write. Gianforte won anyway.

"To celebrate an attack on a journalist who was simply doing his job is an attack on the First Amendment by someone who has taken an oath to defend it," Guardian U.S. editor John Mulholland said in a statement. "In the aftermath of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, it runs the risk of inviting other assaults on journalists both here and across the world where they can often face far greater threats. We hope decent people will denounce these comments and that the president will see fit to apologize for them." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1eead9e1e6a89461d35c878c8a7fa6cd8990f79682ff054b9d7207cae568023c5a70322270b5a18fb10eba6e66ed7c5e

Related reads: "In Shift on Khashoggi Killing, Trump Edges Closer to Acknowledging a Saudi Role," from The New York Times' Maggie Haberman, Mark Landler, Michael S. Schmidt and Eric Schmitt: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1eead9e1e6a8946140e4f14044f01d66b51a23d4276468e37c385838d2ce1aa059da692ca8089d10c832ed85edeb72bc and "Trump, at rally, hints at conspiracy theories for migrant caravan," per Christopher Cadelago and Brent D. Griffiths: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1eead9e1e6a894615ed68cfae589a0ab8f88980cec77b6d64e9412b79ecb3eb3d158e3aa10e6302e596dd38496c7c568

TRUMP RELOCATES TEXAS RALLY -- The president's reelection campaign has relocated next week's rally with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), with Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale citing "huge and unprecedented" responses for tickets. "The Trump campaign originally chose Houston's NRG Arena, which can hold 8,000, and then abruptly changed locations on Thursday to the Toyota Center, which can hold 19,000, according to its website," Mary Lee writes. "The largest stadium in Texas, and the fourth-largest nationally, is Kyle Field at Texas A&M University, which can hold 102,995." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1eead9e1e6a894611f89e9a79840e50fa291f768aaf3cc9485c781b359036025ecd207b2913600bd4e2102a522ce1bab

Related: "Heidi Cruz Didn't Plan for This," via The Atlantic's Elaina Plott: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1eead9e1e6a8946188ae6534b0beee974ac8cfd810af2cf021d2c7cc1c0606ac7b688c785b6cb03d4b9b1ada86c4d8d2

HAPPY FRIDAY! Thanks for reading Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Oct. 19.

THURSDAY'S MOST CLICKED: Sen. Joe Manchin's (D-W.Va.) "Coaches" ad with endorsements from University of Alabama football coach Nick Saban, West Virginia basketball coach Bob Huggins and NBA Hall of Famer Jerry West was the winner.

President Trump says a red wave is coming on Election Day. Is he right, or will the tide turn blue? Compete against the nation's top political minds in the POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country. Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. Sign up today!

POLITICO is partnering with the Milken Institute to bring a special edition of the POLITICO Pulse newsletter to the Milken Institute Future of Health Summit. Written by Dan Diamond, the newsletter will take readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of global health industry leaders and innovators as they tackle today's most pressing health challenges. The newsletter will run from Oct. 23-24. Sign up today to begin receiving exclusive coverage on Day One of the summit.

BUSH'S STEALTH CAMPAIGN FOR REPUBLICANS -- Trump will rally for Rep. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) tonight. But last night, she hosted former President George W. Bush as the guest of honor at a fundraising reception for her Senate bid. "At a time when Trump rules the Republican Party, practically choosing winners and losers through his endorsements in the primaries, Bush is in high demand on the campaign trail," The Washington Post's Paul Kane writes. The former president on Monday held a fundraiser in Indiana for GOP Senate candidate Mike Braun. And a month ago, he was in Florida for a Tampa fundraiser and Palm Beach dinner reception for Gov. Rick Scott's Senate campaign. Much more:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1eead9e1e6a8946158de05b78dff8698228e718fc0289bab9d724e82e83a0efacfe9143913da6f1af42a314d3235f17c

Related: "Arizona Senate candidate Kyrsten Sinema: Hard to say I'm a 'proud' Democrat," by CNN's Andrew Kaczynski: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1eead9e1e6a89461bbd77608083e3b7287668738f6c27c04ad58c1caed1df2820238808d34d78b27eee89254800939f1 and "Senate GOP super PAC raises $37.6 million in September," from Maggie Severns: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1eead9e1e6a894611f5de044ab6538d2adb7839bfbddcdbacb04eb97e250cdc501ce4173436754a30f2671c6679bd848

HOUSE GOP INVESTIGATION HEATS UP -- Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) questioned Fusion GPS' Glenn Simpson for 20 minutes during a deposition on Capitol Hill this week. And for 20 minutes, Simpson pleaded the Fifth. "Eventually, Biggs told Simpson that his claims of constitutional privilege could be deemed invalid and that Simpson could be held in contempt of Congress for refusing to answer questions," Kyle and Rachael report. "The confrontation exacerbates a growing concern among House Democrats that Republicans are trying to undercut the Justice Department's Russia investigation in anticipation of losing their majority this fall -- and setting what Democrats call a 'dangerous' precedent in the
process."

"While almost all lawmakers are out campaigning in their districts, some of Trump's most ardent defenders, including Biggs, are coming to Washington to grill top FBI officials and other informants related to the Russia matter, probing for bias and impropriety," they continue. Next up is Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. House Republicans plan to grill him on allegations that he wanted to surreptitiously record the president and oust him using the 25th Amendment. But if Democrats win the House next month, Republicans would lose their subpoena power, effectively ending their investigation into whether the FBI mishandled the Russia probe. More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1eead9e1e6a89461cf3d24db5844f4ce779a9731536b4150b3bc4dfd71ccc7e64cc95dbaeeaa3f2654edef338a38ba65

Related read: "House sets Rosenstein interview next week," per Josh Gerstein: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1eead9e1e6a8946102550ce13f6472cee77c6012bc4a70565186f98be3059c658abf22a1636632c14b3315e91f856fd3

HARRIS PROPOSES MIDDLE-CLASS TAX BREAK -- Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) is proposing a new $6,000 tax credit for families who earn up to $100,000. "The break would be 'refundable,' which means people could claim it even if it exceeded their tax liabilities, by receiving a check from the government for the difference," Brian Faler reports. "She wants to allow recipients to claim it throughout the year, up to $500 per month, rather than having to wait to get a lump sum after they file their taxes." Harris' office said it doesn't know how much the plan would cost but that Harris would finance it in part by repealing parts of the GOP tax law that benefit people who earn more than $100,000.
More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1eead9e1e6a89461e24c8f7d3930a90b66f2470bd9dd99fd4cf2917bb9095f57eae58e9eda1fd6602675119d1c4058ec

HALEY MOCKS WARREN'S DNA TEST -- Outgoing U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley joked that organizers of the annual Al Smith dinner "wanted to spice things up." "I get it. You wanted an Indian woman, but Elizabeth Warren failed her DNA test," she quipped. "Actually, when the president found out that I was Indian-American, he asked if I was from the same tribe as Elizabeth Warren." In a serious note, though, Haley called for civility in American politics, insisting that political opponents aren't "enemies" or "evil." "I've seen true evil," Haley said. And despite serious differences, she said, political opponents are just that: opponents. More on Haley's remarks from the charity
dinner: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1eead9e1e6a894614c5986f75fdcba372f04233fe88336989f10246d61051df5bbd806c9337d8f030b6a7cc3d9fb6603

Richard Grenell, the U.S. ambassador to Germany, is now under serious consideration to replace Haley. "Trump initially seemed to rule out choosing Grenell for the job, telling reporters he'd prefer to keep him in Germany," Andrew Restuccia reports. "But in recent days, several of Trump's closest advisers have put forward Grenell's name again, pointing to his seven-year stint as the United States' U.N. spokesman." Several members of Trump's national security team recommended Grenell as their favored candidate this week, and Grenell met with officials at the White House last week to discuss the post. Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1eead9e1e6a89461d866ba69ba14fe501d210d0e96f55aee45866ad3930b3141b1a0afbf05995a579cf37dfa82aeb1cc

Related: "GOP war room blasts endless stream of criticism at Democrats, with Warren its latest target," via The Washington Post's Michael Scherer: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1eead9e1e6a89461816e7d396ac9953f4b40de1b1ecc9cdff7b4cdbba36ddee6a6371b25be91bb136242ce407ee932cf

FLOOD TEMPORARILY REPLACES MCGAHN -- Veteran lawyer Emmet Flood will serve as White House counsel until Pat Cipollone officially succeeds former White House lawyer Don McGahn. Cipollone is still waiting for his background check to clear, a process that could take weeks. "Flood, who has been representing Trump in special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation, was previously a partner at Williams & Connolly and has represented top government officials, including former Presidents George W. Bush, Bill Clinton and former Vice President Dick Cheney," Mary Lee notes. "McGahn ... leaves the White House with his most notable legacy being the successful confirmation of two conservatives to the
Supreme Court, Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1eead9e1e6a894612c2106e49a25768d04096beef01094ddf39a9ddaffbc70d26ecfdcf2cb87cff2bbbf44070772d2a3

"I've known every White House counsel since I arrived in Washington. Even in such impressive company, Don is a cut above," Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said in a statement. "He concludes his tenure not only as the best White House counsel I've seen on the job, but more broadly, as one of the most successful and consequential aides to any president in recent memory."

Related: "Mueller report PSA: Prepare for disappointment," by Darren Samuelsohn: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1eead9e1e6a89461d055d73f8b29c394a8cbc5695e9ee239b4848234ce980de2e0eb63d511a90cb5198d7965e062a218 and "A Conservative Group's Closed-Door 'Training' of Judicial Clerks Draws Concern," from The New York Times' Adam Liptak: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1eead9e1e6a89461810e8b6133d1cdab0b67600666d7b06977f272f1ba20b652a087a42c0d41bf5a4fc37b9ff34a6075

FRENCH HILL CONDEMNS AD -- The political action committee Black Americans for the President's Agenda is running a radio ad in support of Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.), who wants nothing to do with it. "The ad ... compares Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh's hearing to a lynching," BuzzFeed News' Julia Reinstein reports. In it, a woman says Hill and Republicans "know that it's dangerous to change the presumption of innocence to a presumption of guilt, especially for black men." Another woman suggests if Republicans lose power, "white Democrats will be lynching black folk again."

"Some may have heard an appalling ad on the radio," Hill tweeted. "I condemn this outrageous ad in the strongest terms. I do not support that message, and there is no place in Arkansas for this nonsense." His opponent, Democrat Clarke Tucker, called the ad "disgraceful" and said there's no place for it in society. But "Hill & his allies will have to live with the kind of campaign they're running," Clarke said. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1eead9e1e6a89461b48e2b199ded87f3834743ae39a86d81773b1e7152d43bff2f2baaec8e09d6b4f97a5f953d2114d2

TRANSITIONS -- Tom Bush has been promoted to legislative director in Sen. Jerry Moran's (R-Kan.) office. He previously served as a senior legislative assistant.

Angelica Annino is now director of scheduling for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.). She was previously director of scheduling for Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.).

TODAY IN CONGRESS -- The House and Senate are out.

THURSDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER -- Cory Bisbee was first to correctly guess that Tom McCall unsuccessfully ran for the House but served two terms as governor of Oregon and was a strong environmentalist. He had a cameo as a newscaster in "One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest," starring Jack Nicholson. His grandfather, Sam McCall, was a Republican who served 20 years in the House and was governor of Massachusetts.

TODAY'S TRIVIA -- From Cory: As executive director of the House Democratic Steering and Policy Committee for more than a decade, this Clark University alumnus and Worcester, Massachusetts, native played an important role in the passage of the landmark civil rights legislation of the 1960s. He finally retired in 1984 after one last Hill job advising Rep. Richard Bolling (D-Mo.), chair of the Rules Committee. Who was he, and which Worcester native is now poised to become the next Rules Committee chair? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: nmccaskill@politico.com.

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