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By James Hohmann (
mailto:jhohmann@politico.com
jhohmann@politico.com ; Twitter: @jameshohmann)

"PROVEN LEADERSHIP" - PERRY'S NEW AD: Rick Perry's campaign is launching an epic new bio spot today. The first 40 seconds attack "PRESIDENT ZERO," juxtaposing eerie images of national stagnation with footage of Barack Obama taking responsibility for the economy. A tornado siren playing over the president's voice creates a palpable sense of alarm. The last minute of the web ad introduces Perry as a job creator and veteran who believes America's best days are ahead, rotating sunny images of the country at its best with footage from the Texas governor's announcement speech. Lucas Baiano, who produced the spot, has signed on with Perry after working for Tim Pawlenty. Watch it:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1626ddc6cdaee3a093972c5477de75a3d6fe28a8b8350160ae570bdba10793f9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1626ddc6cdaee3a093972c5477de75a3d6fe28a8b8350160ae570bdba10793f9 .
EXCLUSIVE - NRCC TARGETS GEORGIA'S JOHN BARROW: The National Republican Congressional Committee will begin airing a new television ad today that highlights Georgia Congressman John Barrow's support for the Obama agenda. The eerie 30-second spot blames the vulnerable Democrat for making the economy worse by voting for the stimulus and against repealing the health care law. This is the NRCC's first ad of the cycle against Barrow, who now finds himself in a tough-to-hold R+11 seat [it used to be D+1]. The committee will spend $21,000 to air the ad on cable in the Augusta, Macon and Savannah markets over the next three weeks. The script: "There's a cloud over our economy. John Barrow wants to
keep Obama's government takeover of health care. Fear and uncertainty prevent new hiring. Steep fines and new taxes on families and businesses. Half a trillion dollars - money they can't use to create jobs. And experts say it will push employers to drop workers' health insurance. With Barrow and Obama...the storm will only get worse." Check it out:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1626ddc6cdaee3a0e9ffd0388c260948b8e673a67d2f8cf0e0f4640079de2e5a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1626ddc6cdaee3a0e9ffd0388c260948b8e673a67d2f8cf0e0f4640079de2e5a .

FIRST IN SCORE - CROSSROADS GPS DOES "OBAMA MATH": The Republican outside group pounces on President Obama's line that raising taxes on the rich is 'not class warfare - it's math" in a new web video today. The spot then ticks off a litany of bad economic statistics on a blackboard that starts with the retort: 'Here's the math, Mr. President.' Indicators cited include increased unemployment since Obama took office, the rising debt, the surge in the number of food stamp recipients, the spike in the misery index and higher gas prices. The tagline: 'America can't afford your $1.5 trillion tax hike.' See it here first:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=724d5ace4a187b15e041ba2b1aa75519ffc3a533acd4e662d99893ee4aaaa4c1
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=724d5ace4a187b15e041ba2b1aa75519ffc3a533acd4e662d99893ee4aaaa4c1 .

As Perry opens his books, Romney closes the gap in South Carolina and Rahm becomes a surrogate for the Obama reelect, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

HIS FIFTEEN MINUTES - GARY JOHNSON IN THURSDAY'S DEBATE: Fox News has invited former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson to appear on stage in Thursday's night's Florida debate. He will be the ninth candidate on the stage. The Miami Herald reports that the Republican Party of Florida, a cosponsor, didn't know about the invitation in advance: "Spokesman Brian Hughes said RPOF believed that, under its agreement with FOX, only candidates who had received 1 percent or more in each of the last five national polls would be included. By that standard, Johnson wouldn't be on stage." Johnson will not be on the Saturday straw poll ballot.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=724d5ace4a187b15230e47b567d686392c25e43bb4fa8320944690f25b50f3f7
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=724d5ace4a187b15230e47b567d686392c25e43bb4fa8320944690f25b50f3f7

PERRY TRUST - RELEASES STOCK HOLDINGS, REVOKES BLIND TRUST: Perry revoked a blind trust to reveal last night his investments for the first time in 15 years. He owns 25 stocks-valued between $108,000 to $319,000-and eight municipal bonds. His money has been in the trust since 1996, when he was Texas Agriculture commissioner. Score correspondent emeritus Alex Burns offers this: "Opening up his own financial records for scrutiny is also the kind of thing that would make sense for Perry to do, if he planned on pressuring a certain former Bain Capital executive to do the same."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=724d5ace4a187b15f8f0b9618998b68a99bb9978898d16f571a53719b2840d28
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=724d5ace4a187b15f8f0b9618998b68a99bb9978898d16f571a53719b2840d28

POLLING -

A CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE: A Gallup poll out this morning shows 77% of Americans believe the economy is NO BETTER now than a year ago. 61% do not foresee improvement over the next year. 80% believe the U.S. is currently in a recession.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=724d5ace4a187b15550b530329f22ebe668d6221c3b92c124c0a9b03ae9404be
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=724d5ace4a187b15550b530329f22ebe668d6221c3b92c124c0a9b03ae9404be

VOTERS EXPECT OBAMA TO LOSE: 49% of voters said they definitely plan to vote against Obama, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll. Independents, by 53-28, said they definitely plan to vote against the president. 52% of all voters expect Obama will lose reelection, including 31% of Democrats.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=724d5ace4a187b15e2777496d75dbd256f926dfeb4e90298c1524f58cc69ea55
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=724d5ace4a187b15e2777496d75dbd256f926dfeb4e90298c1524f58cc69ea55

PERRY-

-DOMINANT IN THE SOUTH? Public Policy Polling published fresh results yesterday afternoon showing Perry ahead of Romney 31-to-15 in Missouri. Polling director Tom Jensen says this is "another example of Rick Perry's dominance in the South...Perry has now led our polls in Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia (and) West Virginia. That suggests he may have the ability to sweep through the delegate rich region."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=724d5ace4a187b1577d383799cc27459d9bfec2a14507e3979210459cbe43a55
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=724d5ace4a187b1577d383799cc27459d9bfec2a14507e3979210459cbe43a55

IS ROMNEY GAINING IN SOUTH CAROLINA? A Winthrop University poll of South Carolina voters who say they will definitely vote in next year's primary shows Perry ahead of Romney by just three points, 30.5 to 27.3. Herman Cain is a distant third with 7%.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=724d5ace4a187b1509d2430ca5927636032576773ef07df80dd91947be2d16e9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=724d5ace4a187b1509d2430ca5927636032576773ef07df80dd91947be2d16e9

WHAT THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ARE UP TO: Romney hosts a town hall at the Doubletree Miami Airport at 9:30 a.m. Perry has a 12:30 lunch fundraiser in Fort Lauderdale and a 6:30 p.m. fundraising reception in Palm Beach. Santorum addresses the Aiken, S.C., Republican Club at noon. Herman Cain attends an 8:30 a.m. Lake County Republican Club breakfast at a resort in Howey-in-the-Hills, Florida.

WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS UP TO-Per the White House Daily Guidance: Obama addresses the United Nations General Assembly at 10 a.m. and the Clinton Global Initiative at 2:45 p.m. He holds a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel at 11 a.m. He meets with President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority at 5:55 p.m. Other foreign leaders POTUS plans to sit down with individually: Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, British Prime Minister David Cameron, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and South Sudan President Salva Kiir Mayardit.

DNC LOSES AUGUST- MORE DETAILS FROM FEC FILING: The Democratic National Committee took in only $5.4 million in receipts last month. The DNC got $3.9 million in total contributions [$1.3 million itemized; $2.5 million un-itemized] and a $1.4 million Obama transfer. Meanwhile, the party committee spent $8.9 million, including $1 million in loan repayment. That's a net negative of $3.5 million. The RNC, which does not have the presidency to take advantage of, raised $8.2 million. The DNC still holds some major advantages, like a huge war chest and a much smaller debt load. Officials have previously suggested that the lethargic fundraising was resulted from the president's focus on the debt
ceiling debate. The FEC disclosure filed yesterday by the DNC:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=724d5ace4a187b1573b4457e562845d2c1b02eca0588c1a8bab6e227c0a341ec
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=724d5ace4a187b1573b4457e562845d2c1b02eca0588c1a8bab6e227c0a341ec .

MASSACHUSETTS SENATE-WARREN'S SUCCESSFUL ROLLOUT: A PPP poll out yesterday puts Elizabeth Warren ahead of Scott Brown 46-44. Her name ID has popped from 38% to 62% in three months, and her favorable have grown from 21/17 to 40/22. Brown leads the other Dems running for the nomination. Brown was short and stern with my colleague Dave Catanese when approached at a Log Cabin Republican dinner last night in Washington. "Never been a big poll guy," he said. PPP results:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=724d5ace4a187b15b556fc3aea8814d36f5fa913b8641e3baa49171ec3867a68
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=724d5ace4a187b15b556fc3aea8814d36f5fa913b8641e3baa49171ec3867a68 . Dave's blog post:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=724d5ace4a187b15e8159a20064512e0712981d66a585d70eddf855a3255e764
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=724d5ace4a187b15e8159a20064512e0712981d66a585d70eddf855a3255e764 .

INDIANA SENATE - DONNELLY WILL CALL FOR SUPERCOMMITTEE TO WORK ON JOBS: Democratic Senate candidate Joe Donnelly plans to send a letter to members of the supercommittee later today asking them to also work on creating jobs as part of their much bigger job of finding trillions to cut. This is part of the congressman's larger political strategy to compete in his red state, presenting himself as a deficit hawk nonetheless eager to work through whatever channels he can to create jobs. "The best opportunity for getting anything done in Congress this calendar year is through the supercommittee's work," Donnelly explains. "Their recommendations are guaranteed to receive an up-or-down vote in both
chambers-something that is increasingly difficult to achieve in this hyper-partisan environment." His two-page letter:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18b5aa9b1f4fc3185f2c81b6b5cf708d3c7b6d92d2bd875942e62336f3145d95
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18b5aa9b1f4fc3185f2c81b6b5cf708d3c7b6d92d2bd875942e62336f3145d95 .

MISSOURI SENATE-DOES MCCASKILL REALLY WANT TO BE SEEN WITH OBAMA? The president is visiting St. Louis on Oct. 4. An aide to freshman Sen. Claire McCaskill told POLITICO on Monday that the now vulnerable early backer of Obama will be in Washington "voting and working" the day of Obama's visit. Then yesterday an unnamed spokesperson disputed the report in an interview with the St. Louis Beacon, insisting that the senator wants to come if she can fit it in with key Senate votes and a fundraiser she has already scheduled for that night in DC. The office says the White House has not provided details on time or place. The item in the Beacon, though, notes that McCaskill missed a vote when Obama
last came to St. Louis in March 2010.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18b5aa9b1f4fc318e55d953710c2259fe4b580509cfba31bfb5490bca35d7e50
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18b5aa9b1f4fc318e55d953710c2259fe4b580509cfba31bfb5490bca35d7e50

A top GOP campaign aide hopes that McCaskill shows up but isn't counting on it. An effective ad last cycle highlighted footage of Obama praising Missouri Democratic Senate nominee Robin Carnahan during a fundraiser, and Republicans would love to get current footage of the two looking chummy. "Senator McCaskill may have to keep up appearances with the Democratic faithful back home for the next few weeks, but I doubt anyone in her office or at 1600 Penn. Ave, is holding their breath for last minute travel arrangements to St. Louis," the operative emailed overnight.

NEW HAMPSHIRE SPECIAL ELECTION - DEMOCRAT WINS: "A Democrat has won a special election for a rural Hillsborough County House district, grabbing a seat in a moderate Republican bastion that is home to Rep. Charles Bass and the late Walter Peterson," the Union Leader reports.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18b5aa9b1f4fc3186f2cde0c061fec9e2b2dc7c67704a1a1490c671759f70227
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18b5aa9b1f4fc3186f2cde0c061fec9e2b2dc7c67704a1a1490c671759f70227

An AFL-CIO official told Score last night that this is the fourth straight union-endorsed victory in New Hampshire since the state speaker's attempted override of John Lynch's veto of what they viewed as Wisconsin-style, anti-labor efforts.

RAHM TO IOWA - KEYNOTING JEFFERSON-JACKSON DINNER: Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel will be keynote speaker at the Iowa Democratic Party's 2011 Jefferson Jackson dinner on November 19 in Des Moines.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18b5aa9b1f4fc318c3b82e62fce7f7dacbc1d8af0bbc40f6e5f14ab5dd669af3
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18b5aa9b1f4fc318c3b82e62fce7f7dacbc1d8af0bbc40f6e5f14ab5dd669af3

$44 MILLION -THE AMOUNT SPENT ON WISCONSIN SENATE RECALLS: A study released Tuesday by the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign estimated that $43.9 million was spent on the nine Senate elections this summer. Six PACs or special interest groups spent more than $1 million. From The Capital Times in Madison: "We Are Wisconsin was the top spender. The union-backed group spent roughly $10.75 million, followed by the conservative-leaning Club for Growth at $9 million and $4 million in spending from the Greater Wisconsin Committee."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18b5aa9b1f4fc31821b812161eae5baee0176c1b1ae1080964b8e778a25dd151
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18b5aa9b1f4fc31821b812161eae5baee0176c1b1ae1080964b8e778a25dd151

WHAT THE COOL KIDS ARE BUZZING ABOUT - RUCK.US GOES LIVE: The brainchild of former Democratic Governors Association officials Nathan Daschle and Ray Glendening makes its debut today. The concept: "Ruck.us has a central mantra of connecting like minded people, giving them a venue to exchange information, and take collective action together. Thus far, we have only had an 'early access' site where users generated questions and answers in a quiz-like format. Behind the scenes, we have been busy building the technology with an algorithm to match these users that have signed up. Now, we are giving you your 'ruck.' These are the people on ruck.us that think like you politically (that have selected
issues and answered questions at a high percentage to your issues and answers). Most importantly, we are now giving you actions as well. Petitions, offline action, campaigns, contributions, etc. are now features that Ruck.us prompts to its like minded users. While there is a ton of work to continue to do, and many flaws and imperfections within the site, this is the first time we are effectively executing all three components of our mantra." Check out what the guys have been working on for so long:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18b5aa9b1f4fc3184b2a55703ad3dda7c5bd1f7415f7681a89a7bf8b75c73450
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18b5aa9b1f4fc3184b2a55703ad3dda7c5bd1f7415f7681a89a7bf8b75c73450 .

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I think it's quite sexy." - Michelle Obama commenting on her husband's graying hair during a Manhattan fundraiser last night
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18b5aa9b1f4fc318ac8cddf2abed52c2ce105560e2f1d0f36f89956e1c94f8f4
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