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By Edward-Isaac Dovere (
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isaac@politico.com ; Twitter: @IsaacDovere), Dan Hirschhorn (
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danh@politico.com ; Twitter: @DanPolitico) and Juana Summers (
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jsummers@politico.com ; Twitter: @JMsummers)

DEBATE DAY - We're just hours away from the unofficial kick-off to the fall campaign, as the candidates prepare to take the stage at the Reagan Library for the POLITICO/NBC News debate. "For the 2012 Republican hopefuls, Wednesday night is the first Fall Classic ... the first debate that will include Texas Gov. Rick Perry, the new front-runner who has shaken up the slow-forming presidential contest and shifted the landscape for Mitt Romney, who'd been sitting atop the field for months. ... Five things to watch for as the candidates take the stage: Does Perry stumble or survive? .... Will Romney go after Perry by name? ... Can Bachmann break through? Will Jon Huntsman bring his "truth
telling" from the Sunday talk shows to his opponents? ... Can Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Herman Cain prove that they're relevant?"
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Watch it on MSNBC, online at politico.com/reagandebate or on the POLITICO iPad app, starting at 8 p.m. Eastern/5 p.m. Pacific. POLITICO is also livestreaming the debate with a pre-game show beginning at 7:30pm ET.

EXCLUSIVE - NEW RNC "SOUND FAMILIAR" SPOT - The president's scheduled to talk jobs at a joint session of Congress on Thursday, but the Republican National Committee isn't waiting to slam the speech. A new minute-long web video compiles clips of Obama and White House spokesman Jay Carney saying that jobs were the president's "number one priority" and the focal point of his administration at various times during his tenure as president. Watch the RNC spot:
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SNEAK PEEK - POLL HAS OBAMA IN 'DEEP TROUBLE' - A majority of Americans think it's time to put someone else in the White House, according to a Resurgent Republic survey out later today. The conservative nonprofit's poll found 67 percent thinking the country is on the wrong track and 60 percent thinking Obama turned out to be a weaker leader than expected. Ed Gillespie, Whit Ayres and Leslie Sanchez pen an accompanying memo: "By almost every measure, President Obama's prospects for reelection are bad," making him "very vulnerable to defeat next year."

FIRST IN SCORE - WIS DEMS USE THOMPSON HATERS - Wisconsin Democrats are using a new web ad today to remind Republicans of all the local conservative radio hosts who have bashed the expected Senate run by the state's former governor. The ad includes audio snippets from Jerry Bader, Vicki McKenna and Mark Belling. 'Thompson will not pass the modern smell test,' Bader says one. 'Simple fact is Tommy Thompson has never been a conservative.'
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**As Romney pitches for jobs in Nevada, Perry pitches for cash in California and Giuliani distances himself from a run, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

ROMNEY'S JOBS PROPOSAL - "Romney's prescription for the country's ailing economy includes overhauling federal tax, regulatory, trade and energy policies. His is a collection of business-friendly ideas that fit neatly within the mainstream of the Republican Party, with a few innovative proposals sprinkled throughout, namely tougher stances on China and labor unions. ... So in many ways, the terms of engagement between the president and Romney, as well as the rest of the Republican field, are set. 'The politics of contrast are pretty simple here,' conservative economist Douglas Holtz-Eakin said."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ec8acc1e30dfe108fbc177e207e00f406a2d8205cf48bbf47699e602e56eab11
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ec8acc1e30dfe108fbc177e207e00f406a2d8205cf48bbf47699e602e56eab11 But it wasn't enough to impress the Wall Street Journal, which continues to be tough on Romney, calling the plan "a technocrat's guide more than a reform manifesto."
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PERRY'S CALIFORNIA RAISING - The Texas governor cut his campaign schedule short over the holiday weekend to deal with raging wildfires back home, but after briefly sparking some doubts on Tuesday about whether he'd make it to his first debate, his spokesman confirmed he'd be there. And so far, the big fundraising swing planned around his trip to Simi Valley for Wednesday's face-off with his Republican rivals is still on too. "After the debate, Perry will meet potential donors at Landmark Aviation terminal in San Diego, according to one campaign finance team member. The following morning he will attend another event at the Hyatt Aventine in La Jolla. He has other fundraising events on the
schedule in Los Angeles, Newport Beach, Bakersfield, Fresno and in Palo Alto, the heart of Silicon Valley."
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PERRY PREPS FOR FLORIDA - The governor will also be bracketing his trip to Florida for next week's CNN/Tea Party Express debate with more local fundraising trips. But he'll have to push his appeal beyond where it's gotten so far: "Of the state's 41 past presidential bundlers, "only four Bush-Cheney Pioneers or Rangers from Florida who raised at least $100,000 in 2000 and/or 2004: Husein Cumber of Jacksonville, James Holton of St. Pete Beach (who until recently had been on Mitt Romney's team), Jorge Luis Lopez of Hialeah, and William Scherer of Fort Lauderdale."
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RUDY, ONLY IF WE'RE DESPERATE - 'While he didn't rule out a candidacy, Rudy Giuliani threw several buckets of cold water on a repeat presidential bid this year. 'If I think we are truly desperate, then I may run - which is how I got elected mayor of New York City,' Giuliani said at a National Press Club Speakers Luncheon on Tuesday. 'You know what my slogan was? 'You can't do any worse.''
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BOLTON, OUT - One person ready to end the flirtation: Former United Nations ambassador John Bolton, who called off the talk of a presidential bid in an appearance on Fox on Tuesday night. He still wants national security to play a big role in the primary conversation-electability was the problem. "I kept coming to the conclusion that I couldn't possibly win the nomination, and I didn't like that answer," he said.
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PERRY PUSHES BACK ON PAUL - After getting tagged in Paul's latest commercial for supporting Al Gore and not being close enough to Reagan-first reported Tuesday in Score-the Texas governor is pushing back hard. Perry's campaign digs up Paul's 1987 letter resigning from the Republican Party that shows the distance Paul tried to put between himself and Reagan back then, writing that "There is no credibility left for the Republican Party as a force to reduce the size of government. That is the message of the Reagan years. ... Thanks to the President and Republican Party, we have lost the chance to reduce the deficit and the spending in a non-crisis fashion. Even worse, big government has been
legitimized in a way the Democrats never could have accomplished."

PERRY AND JAMES LENINGER: Archconservative mega-donor James Leininger "has consistently been a top Perry donor and even financed Perry's first campaign plane.... At the same time, Leininger also helped bankroll the transformation of the Texas GOP from a merely conservative party to one dominated by religious fundamentalists. Partly because of his influence, the Texas political culture that Rick Perry emerges from is significantly more right-wing than the one that shaped George W. Bush. And now that Perry is running for president, Leininger is working to make sure that national conservative Christian leaders coalesce behind him, even if he's not quite the purist that Michele Bachmann is."
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THE BERKLEY FILE - Nevada congresswoman and Senate hopeful Shelley Berkley kept federal regulators from shuttering a kidney transplant program at Las Vegas' University Medical Center three years ago, and that's not all, the New York Times says: "Berkley's actions were among a series over the last five years in which she pushed legislation or twisted the arms of federal regulators to pursue an agenda that is aligned with the business interests of her husband, Dr. Larry Lehrner. In addition to the hospital contract, he operates a dozen dialysis enters in Nevada and has played a central role in an industry campaign to lobby members of Congress - including his wife - on behalf of kidney care
providers."
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THE SCOTT BROWN SEAT - WARREN ONLY DOWN 9 - A WBUR poll in Boston has the not-quite declared candidate starting strong: 'When paired in a hypothetical contest, 44 percent of 500 likely voters said they'd vote for Brown, compared to 35 percent who said they would vote for Elizabeth Warren. ... '[Brown] actually still is viewed favorably by a considerable number of voters, but Warren is, especially for someone who just appeared on the scene and hasn't even formally begun her campaign yet, really making a strong showing at this point,' said Steve Koczela, president of the MassIncPollingGroup, which conducted the survey.'
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THE WEINER SEAT - REPUBLICAN GETS TOP JEWISH LEADER AND GOOD POLL - Bob Turner has won the support of 'a long-serving Democratic assemblyman who carries major clout in the Orthodox Jewish community. ... [Dov] Hikind's decision will likely undercut fellow Democrat and fellow Assemblyman David Weprin's appeal to the Jewish vote, especially in the heavily Orthodox Jewish part of the district in Brooklyn's Boro Park, which Hikind has represented for two decades and where he remains a major powerbroker.'
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0bad8b5a38089b58851787ddd153795052cebfa02615545b31fabdad33af6abd
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0bad8b5a38089b58851787ddd153795052cebfa02615545b31fabdad33af6abd Meanwhile a robopoll from Magellan has Turner up 4 points, adding to building Democratic worries about an upset.
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INCUMBENT BLOODBATH COMING - Redistricting is bad news for the incumbents all over the country who'll now have to run in radically redrawn territory and, in some cases, against each other: "With 18 states done or almost done with the once-a-decade process of redrawing congressional district lines, the likelihood is strong that more sitting House members will be forced into face-offs than in the past 30 years. ... In the maps drawn so far, at least 13 districts in California, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan and North Carolina are being reshaped in a way that put the homes of two incumbents into the same territory. Some of those House members have decided to run for another seat
and others have yet to say whether they'll run at all."
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CODA- 'Came in third place behind Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul. I think that's enough for any one person to endure." - former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, telling Stephen Colbert why he dropped out after Ames, following a campaign that "went all the way from 1 percent to 1 percent.'
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