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10/16/2018 10:00 AM EDT

By ZACH MONTELLARO (zmontellaro@politico.com; @ZachMontellaro)


Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.
THE TOPLINES
DEADLINE DAY - We'll have complete coverage later today of the Q3 filings (spoilers, Democrats raised a lot of money!) but here's some interesting tidbits and/or interesting hauls (high or low) that caught the team's eyes as we poured through FEC reports and announcements. The New York Times has a great tool tracking fundraising in key House districts.

THE BIG PLAYERS - The DGA raised almost $37 million in the third quarter, a record quarter (More from Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss). The RGA raised $42.6 million in the quarter, twice what it raised at this time in 2014 (more from Daniel).

- Congressional Leadership Fund raised over $25 million in the last quarter, with about 80 percent of that coming via a pair of $10 million donations from Sheldon and Miriam Adelson. Ron Cameron, the owner of Mountaire Farms, gave $1 million, while Chevron gave $750,000. Many of the other committees and major super PACs file monthly - meaning they'll be filing September reports by Oct. 20.

- President Donald Trump's operations raised $18 million during the quarter and his campaign spent $1.6 million on legal fees, POLITICO's Maggie Severns reported. His campaign also dished out $214,000 to over 100 different campaigns.

- America First Action, a pro-Trump super PAC, raised about $12.9 million dollars and spent about $6.2 million on disbursements from Aug. 28-Sept. 30, per its FEC report. The Adelsons gave $5 million each and Andrew Beal, the president and CEO of Beal Bank, gave $1 million.

- Tom Steyer donated $8.2 million of the $9.1 million his group Need to Impeach raised in the quarter, per its FEC report.

GRAB BAG - Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, who is running for the Senate in Arizona, raised $5.3 million, spent $5.6 million and has $2.1 million cash on hand, per her FEC report. GOP Rep. Martha McSally raised $4.9 million, spent $3.5 million and has $3.3 million cash on hand, per her FEC report.

- Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill raised $8.5 million and has about $3.2 million cash on hand, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported. Republican Josh Hawley raised $3.2 million and has $3.5 million cash on hand, per his FEC report.

- Republican Gov. Rick Scott, who is running for the Senate in Florida, brought in $23.5 million - including a whopping $18 million of his own cash (plus more in-kind donations of charter flights), per his FEC filing. He spent just under $24.9 million and has $2 million cash on hand.

- Republican Mike Braun in Indiana announced he posted $5.6 million for the quarter. But his FEC report reveals that roughly $2.4 million is in loans, with $1.9 million cash on hand. Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly raised $3.1 million and has $4.5 million cash on hand, per Campaign Pro's James Arkin.

- Democrat Katie Hill in CA-25 raised $3.8 million.

- Democrat Antonio Delgado in NY-19 raised $3.8 million, spent $2.7 million and has $1.7 million cash on hand, per his FEC filing.

- Democrat Kim Schrier in WA-08 raised $3.8 million.

- GOP. Rep. Devin Nunes in CA-22 raised about $3.2 million, spent $4.1 million and has $5.1 million cash on hand, per his FEC filing.

- GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher in CA-48 raised $421,000, spent $395,000 and has $506,000 cash on hand, per his FEC report.

- GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter in CA-50 raised under $133,000, spent $238,000 and has $247,000 cash on hand, per his FEC report.

- Former Majority Leader Harry Reid's committee transferred $100,000 to the Nevada state Democratic party.

- ESAFund, the Republican super PAC, received $2 million in donations in the quarter: $1 million each from the Adelsons.

- Team Ryan, Speaker Paul Ryan's joint fundraising committee, transferred over $1.4 million to the NRCC.

- The House Victory Project, a collection of Democratic big donors, transferred over $10 million to 31 House Democratic hopefuls (more from me here).

Good Tuesday morning. Here's the filing for the greatest outside group ever: "Mets Are A Good Team Committee," which raised a whopping $37 dollars (h/t to Jeremy Marsh for flagging this to me). As always, email me at zmontellaro@politico.com or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and dstrauss@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 21

** Presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: Every day, gun violence kills 96 Americans, and wounds hundreds more. Everytown is galvanizing Americans to send the NRA - and the politicians in its pocket - a message: Not One More. In November, we'll elect leaders who will put gun safety first. NotOneMore.com **

POLITICO IS PARTNERING WITH THE MILKEN INSTITUTE to bring a special edition of the POLITICO Pulse newsletter to the Milken Institute Future of Health Summit. Written by Dan Diamond, the newsletter will take readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of global health industry leaders and innovators as they tackle today's most pressing health challenges. The newsletter will run Oct. 23-24. Sign up today to begin receiving exclusive coverage on Day One of the summit.

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SAYS A RED WAVE IS COMING ON ELECTION DAY. Is he right, or will the tide turn blue? Compete against the nation's top political minds in the POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge, by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country. Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. Sign up today: Visit politico.com/playbookelectionchallenge to play.
IN THE TRENCHES
PELOSI ON THE TRAIL - House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is barnstorming across the country to help the Democrats take back the House. POLITICO's Anna Palmer: "With 21 days until the midterm election, the California Democrat and House minority leader is crisscrossing the country fundraising and rallying the Democratic troops, all while plotting her return to the speakership. Electing more women is central to Pelosi's mission. Of the 83 'Red to Blue' candidates whom Democrats see as top pickups in races to win the House majority, female Democratic candidates are running in 43 of them.

"'It's not a zero-sum game,' she said in an interview, talking about the need to add more women to the ranks of Congress. 'We should celebrate the success because that opens another door.' ... [A]s Democrats appear positioned to take back the House, Pelosi has solidified her support among her caucus and has begun mapping out their priorities with her colleagues. Similar to 2007 - the first time Pelosi took the speaker's gavel - House Democrats plan to introduce a package for campaign finance reform as their first bill of the 116th Congress."

- Meanwhile, Ryan is keeping an aggressive schedule as his days in Congress wind down. USA Today's Eliza Collins: "Ryan's travel plan, shared exclusively with USA TODAY, has the speaker visiting a dozen states over the next three weeks. Ryan's campaign tour will zigzag from New York to Kansas to North Carolina, with stops in between. He'll end the campaign cycle back home in Wisconsin with a bus tour touting GOP candidates up and down the ballot. ... His tour across the eastern part of the country - he visited other regions earlier in the cycle - will take him to stump for some unlikely candidates, including multiple members of the House Freedom Caucus."

THE DEBATE STAGE - McSally and Sinema squared off in a contentious debate Monday night, the only debate scheduled in the contest. Campaign Pro's James Arkin: "Near the end of the hour-long debate, McSally attacked Sinema over the comments from a radio show in 2003, reported earlier this week by CNN. The host made a hypothetical comment about joining the Taliban, to which Sinema responded: 'I don't care if you want to do that, go ahead.' McSally demanded an apology, accusing her fellow congresswoman of saying 'it's okay to commit treason.' Sinema didn't respond to the attack or explain her past comments, instead accusing McSally of running a negative campaign by using 'ridiculous attacks,
and trying to smear my campaign.'

"The exchange in Monday's debate, the only one scheduled in Arizona, epitomized the campaign to replace retiring GOP Sen. Jeff Flake. McSally repeatedly accused Sinema and Democrats of lying about her positions, while Sinema attacked McSally as overly partisan and unwilling to cooperate across the aisle. The candidates sparred over immigration, health care, the Republican tax law and the Supreme Court, among other issues, diverging sharply on nearly every topic."


POLLS POLLS POLLS - GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo has a narrow lead over Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in FL-26. The Telemundo/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research poll has him up, 46 percent to 45 percent. The poll surveyed 625 likely voters from Oct. 3-9 (POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo has more details).

- GOP Rep. Scott Taylor has a lead over Democrat Elaine Luria in a new VA-02 poll. The poll from Christopher Newport University has him up 7, 50 percent to 43 percent (the looming ballot signature scandal is largely not affecting him, click through for details). The poll surveyed 798 likely voters from Oct. 3-12.

- GOP Rep. Mia Love and Democrat Ben McAdams are tied at 46 percent in a new poll of UT-04. More here from the Salt Lake Tribune on its poll of 403 registered voters from Oct. 3-11 in partnership with the Hinckley Institute at the University of Utah.

- FIRST IN SCORE - A trio of internal polls from the conservative group Citizens United, which are conducted by The Polling Company, shows close races. In WV-Sen, Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is up over Republican Patrick Morrisey, 49 percent to 45 percent (Oct. 11-13, 600 likely voters). In MO-Sen, Hawley leads McCaskill, 50 percent to 47 percent (Oct. 11-13, 600 likely voters). In NY-22, GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney leads Democrat Anthony Brindisi, 50 percent to 42 percent (Oct. 12-13, 400 likely voters).

RACE BAITING - GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter's campaign launched a racist attack against his Democratic opponent, Ammar Campa-Najjar. His campaign released a letter signed by three retired Marine generals that said Campa-Najjar could be a "security risk" because he has family in the Middle East and he could leak information about the military to them, according to the Los Angeles Times's Maya Sweedler. "Mr. Hunter's ongoing attacks on me, his wife, and the Justice Department aren't just political; they're pathological," Campa-Najjar said in a statement to the Times.

TRIAGE WATCH - The DCCC is canceling television buys in CA-21 right before Election Day, where GOP Rep. David Valadao is facing Democrat TJ Cox, according to data from Advertising Analytics. The DCCC did not return a request for comment about why they were canceling the buy, but in the lone public poll in September, Valadao had a big lead.

FIRST IN SCORE - ON THE AIRWAVES - House Majority PAC is launching an ad blitz, going up with nine new ads backed by about $4.4 million in buys. The first ad in AZ-02 its Republican Lea Marquez Peterson, criticizing her support for the GOP tax plan (a $525,000 buy). The second ad in IA-03 hits GOP Rep. David Young over health care: "Bad on health care, trouble with the truth" (a $900,000 buy). The third ad lands in KS-03, also hitting GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder over his support of the GOP health care plan ($419,000 buy). The fourth ad goes after GOP Rep. Andy Barr, saying he is "enthusiastic about special interests" while criticizing him over health care ($209,000 buy).

Republican Jim Hagedorn's support of the GOP health care plan is the target of the fifth ad in MN-01, saying the GOP health care plan "only a D.C. bureaucrat could love" ($335,000 buy). Ad number six lands in NJ-03, hitting GOP Rep. Tom MacArthur for being the only New Jersey congressman to vote for the GOP tax plan and for his work with the GOP health care bill ($320,000). Lucky ad number seven goes after John McCann in NJ-05 saying he's "so busy looking out for himself, he'll never look out for you" ($585,000 buy). Ad eight (and a Spanish-language version) targets GOP Rep. Will Hurd in TX-23, saying "he's just part of the herd" and votes with Republicans on things like the GOP tax plan
($475,000 buy). The last ad, a joint effort between HMP and Women Vote!, hits Republican Dino Rossi IN WA-08 over health care and taxes (HMP's portion of the buy is $667,000).

- FIRST IN SCORE - VoteVets and Majority Forward are teaming up on two new ads. The first ad hits McSally in Arizona, with retired Rear Admiral Mike Mathis saying he won't vote for McSally. "Martha McSally seems to believe she can say whatever she wants, as long as she shows a picture of herself, in uniform," he said in the ad. "I know Martha McSally served, but she will never get this veteran's vote." It is backed by a $1 million buy. The second ad goes after Republican Matt Rosendale in Montana. "Matt Rosendale takes care of veterans? Not at all," the ad's narrator, a Vietnam veteran, said. "Matt Rosendale's a fraud." It is backed by a $850,000 buy.

- FIRST IN SCORE - CLF is also up with two ads of its own. The first ad hits Democrat Harley Rouda in CA-48, attacking his business record. "So heartless, Rouda fired an employee who had cancer because her health care cost too much," the ad's narrator says, referring to a lawsuit. "Shady Harley Rouda can't be trusted." The second ad criticizes Democrat Kara Eastman in NE-02 over the Iran deal. "Kara Eastman is too radical to represent us," the ad says. "Eastman supports the Iranian deal that gave billions to the leading funder of terrorism."

- FIRST IN SCORE - Patriot Majority USA is going up with ads in four districts. In KS-02, the ad says Republican Steve Watkins is "playing dress up" by inflating his resume. In ME-02, their ad targets GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin over health care. An ad in PA-17 says GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus has "quietly mastered the Washington game at our expense (Patriot Majority PAC released a near-identical ad in the district). In UT-04, the ad targets GOP Rep. Mia Love, saying she "gam[ed] the system" by raising campaign money during the primary.

AD ROUNDUP - Daniel and I rounded up the 50 plus ads released on Monday (I wouldn't complain if everyone decided to stop releasing ads), just for you. The ad that stood out the most to me comes from Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. The ad features his ex-wife Larke Recchie shaming GOP Rep. Jim Renacci for bringing up allegations of domestic abuse she leveled against him decades ago during divorce proceedings. She says in the ad that "the political attacks against our family are just wrong" and voiced her continued support for him. Today's bonus ad comes to you from KY-06, for being a very specific interest group: Friends of Racing released an ad promoting GOP Rep. Andy Barr for "working
to protect Kentucky's signature horse industry."

2020 WATCH - Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is almost assuredly running. POLITICO's Natasha Korecki and Alex Thompson: "Monday's grandiose, made-for-media detailing of her Native American ancestry - complete with DNA documentation - erased any questions about the Massachusetts senator's intent."

CODA - LEAST SURPRISING HEADLINE OF THE DAY: "Former congressman David Jolly quits GOP," from the Tampa Bay Times.

** Presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: Americans want stronger, not weaker, gun laws - and elected officials are getting the message. No more school shootings with just "thoughts and prayers." No more preventable tragedies without action. This year, Democratic and Republican candidates are running away from the NRA and its dangerous, out-of-touch agenda.

Everytown is all-in on electing leaders who stand up for our communities by supporting common-sense gun safety measures. We're knocking on doors, making calls, turning out the vote, and spending $30 million to elect leaders who will put our safety first. On November 6, we will demonstrate that the NRA is out of touch - and out of time. NotOneMore.com **

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