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11/02/2018 10:01 AM EDT

By ZACH MONTELLARO (zmontellaro@politico.com; @ZachMontellaro)


Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.
THE TOPLINES
GAVEL WATCHING - House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is making stealth moves to clear her path for speakership and lead the Democratic caucus, should the chamber flip as many insiders expect. POLITICO's Rachael Bade and Elena Schneider: "The California Democrat's efforts - from nudging her donors toward candidates, to appearing at private fundraisers for House hopefuls who can't be seen with her publicly - are focused on the Democrats in competitive races who are most likely to win. While it's too early to say whether she'll will have the 218 votes to claim the speaker's gavel, Pelosi has clearly made inroads.

"Of the 43 Democratic candidates in districts that POLITICO rates 'lean-Democrat,' 'likely-Democrat' or 'tossup' - the swath of GOP-held seats most likely to flip - only 11 have said they won't back Pelosi for speaker. Of those 11, only four would confirm that they would vote against Pelosi on the House floor next year. ... To ease her path, Pelosi has raised $6.7 million for 'Red to Blue' candidates trying to oust GOP incumbents. ... And she's sent more than 30 of her staffers out to toss-up districts - many who have avoided Pelosi on the trail. ...

"Pelosi's spadework doesn't guarantee success: A small but determined group of candidates could still complicate her path to the speakership. The four candidates with solid prospects of winning on Election Day, who have confirmed to POLITICO that they will vote against her on the floor, are Conor Lamb of Pennsylvania, Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, Paul Davis of Kansas and Dan McCready of North Carolina. ... That pool could grow if Democrats in Republican-leaning districts win. Indeed, staff on many of these campaigns told POLITICO they worried about being attacked by Republican challengers in 2020 if the first vote they take is to vote for Pelosi after implying they would not. ... Most of
the party's contenders in 'tossup,' 'lean' and 'likely' Democratic districts fall into three categories on the Pelosi question: Embrace her, decline to weigh in until after the election or call vaguely for 'new leadership.'"

Happy Friday! An interesting conundrum, highlighted by NiemanLab's Ken Doctor: Local newspapers published by Gannett won't have election results in print Wednesday morning. As always, email me at zmontellaro@politico.com or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and dstrauss@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 4

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** Presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: The mass shooting at a Pittsburgh synagogue was another reminder that gun violence kills 96 Americans and wounds hundreds more every day. We should be free to worship, attend school, go to nightclubs and live without the fear of gun violence. Let's elect leaders who will put gun safety first. NotOneMore.com **
IN THE TRENCHES
POLLS POLLS POLLS - A CNN/SSRS poll shows tight races in Florida. In the Senate race, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson leads GOP opponent Rick Scott 49 percent to 47 percent. In the gubernatorial race, Democrat Andrew Gillum is up by 1 point over former Rep. Ron DeSantis, 49 percent to 48 percent (781 likely voters, Oct. 24-29).

- Another CNN/SSRS poll in Tennessee gives GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn a slight edge over former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen. Blackburn has 49 percent to Bredesen's 45 percent. The gubernatorial race in the state is less close: Republican Bill Lee leads Democrat Karl Dean, 52 percent to 42 percent (764 likely voters, Oct. 24-29).

- A poll from Mason-Dixon Polling/Sioux Falls Argus Leader/KELO has the South Dakota gubernatorial race neck-and-neck. GOP Rep. Kristi Noem leads Democrat Billie Sutton 47 percent to 44 percent (500 likely voters, Oct. 29-31).

- A poll from Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Channel 2 Action News shows a dead heat in the Georgia gubernatorial race between Democrat Stacey Abrams and Republican Brian Kemp. Abrams and Kemp each have 47 percent (1,091 likely voters, Oct. 21-30).

- A Washington Post/Schar School poll in VA-10 gave Democrat Jennifer Wexton a big lead over GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock. Wexton leads 54 percent to 43 percent (446 likely voters, Oct. 25-28).

THE DEM MONEY MACHINE - The Democracy Alliance, a group of major progressive donors that includes Tom Steyer and George Soros, has changed its strategy to win back Congress. POLITICO's Maggie Severns: "They hope that [local grassroots] organizations can do a better job than Democratic campaigns at reaching and turning out young and minority voters in states that liberals have long viewed as just out of their reach. It's a marked shift from the Democracy Alliance's longtime strategy of funding Beltway think tanks to counter conservative ideas.

"And it's also one window into the exclusive cadre's view of the best way to take down President Donald Trump in 2020: By wooing new voters in rapidly diversifying states across the southern U.S., rather than prioritizing fighting Republicans for older white residents of the Rust Belt, a raging debate in the party since the 2016 election. If the investment pays off in next week's election results, the group might take it to more states during the presidential election."

JUDGMENT DAY - Tuesday's elections will show whether Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's gambit of giving red-state Democrats room to break within the caucus paid off. POLITICO's Burgess Everett and James Arkin: "If Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Jon Tester of Montana suffer a wipeout, the number of moderates in the Senate would plummet to its lowest total in recent history, while further polarizing the chamber. A loss by three or four of the five would be a huge setback for the party."

-Speaking of red state Democrats: Trump rallied Thursday night in Missouri with Republican Josh Hawley (and hammered away at McCaskill), telling voters to "just pretend he's one point down," via The Kansas City Star's Bryan Lowry and Jason Hancock.

MAKING AMENDS - Another judgment day is in order for pollsters, who are trying to avoid the chaos that followed the 2016 exit polls. POLITICO's Steve Shepard: "In a joint statement issued Thursday, a consortium of four news networks at the company that conducts the exit polls, Edison Research, announced changes meant to make this year's surveys more accurate after 2016. ... The changes are designed to better account for the sharp cleavages in the electorate along educational lines, especially among white voters, and the continually increasing share of the vote that is cast prior to Election Day in states that allow early or no-excuse absentee voting. But they also come as two outlets have
already defected from the National Election Pool: The Associated Press and Fox News, which are conducting their own version of an exit poll."

THE CASH WAVE - The latest Democrat to get a major cash infusion is J.D. Scholten, who is challenging GOP Rep. Steve King in IA-04. He raised over $641,000 on Tuesday and Wednesday alone, his campaign told me. Campaign officials are planning on launching a big TV blitz with their "Field of Dreams" ad.

- And there's a last-minute super PAC drive to defeat Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. "Ending Spending Action Fund, which is funded by the Adelson and Ricketts families, is launching a $1 million advertising campaign to boost Republican John James, an underdog Senate candidate in Michigan," my POLITICO colleague Alex Isenstadt reported.

- The Democratic PAC End Citizens United announced that it raised $44 million for the cycle. ECU's fundraising includes $33 million raised for the group itself, $2 million for its state-level affiliate; and $9 million raised directly for candidates and ballot initiatives endorsed by the group.


THE CLOSING MESSAGE - The president has continued to stoke fears over immigration, which could drive voters in crucial districts away from the GOP. The New York Times' Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns: "If the 2016 election hinged in large part on a rightward shift among working-class whites who deserted Democrats in the presidential race, Tuesday's House election may turn on an equally significant and opposite force: a generational break with Republicanism among educated, wealthier whites - especially women - who generally like the party's pro-business policies but recoil from strident, divisive language on race and gender. Rather than seeking to coax voters like these back into the
Republican coalition, ... In Republican-leaning districts that include diverse populations or abut cities that do - from bulwarks of Sunbelt conservatism like Houston and Orange County, Calif., to the well-manicured bedroom communities outside Philadelphia and Minneapolis - the party is in danger of losing its House majority next week because Mr. Trump's racially-tinged nationalism has alienated these voters who once made up a dependable constituency."

- Trump has also recorded robocalls for the RNC that are going out in Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, California, Missouri, Nevada, Montana and Iowa, the Washington Examiner's Robert Donachie reported.

- The last "Midterm View" video from POLITICO's Eugene Daniels and Mary Newman takes a look at the role immigration is playing in the Arizona Senate race.

THE BATTLEGROUND MAP - Senate Leadership Fund is hanging it up in West Virginia. The Washington Post's Sean Sullivan: The Republican super PAC "is no longer airing television advertisements in the race, after spending millions on the air in recent months, Chris Pack, a spokesman for the group, confirmed to The Washington Post. The organization, which had invested $7 million since Labor Day, concluded its commercials earlier this week."

- SLF told donors in a memo that a surge of late cash helped close a gap in the polls in battleground Senate seats. POLITICO's Maggie Severns: SLF "poured a late surge of money into key Senate races, 'throwing a lifeline to our embattled and heavily outspent Republican candidates' and helping 'our candidates eke out a small lead or pull within the margin of error in each of these campaigns during this period,' [SLF President Steven] Law wrote in the memo, which was obtained by POLITICO. 'If it weren't for the generosity of our benefactors, few of these Senate races would still be competitive heading into the home stretch,' Law wrote. Still, Law did not promise a GOP sweep of those crucial
races come Election Day."

AD WARS - FIRST IN SCORE - Senate Majority PAC is going up with a new ad in West Virginia, hitting Republican Patrick Morrisey over lobbying he did for the pharmaceutical industry. "He made millions lobbying for opioid companies," the ad says. "Opioid lobbyist Patrick Morrisey: Getting rich at our expense."

- FIRST IN SCORE - Planned Parenthood Votes is launching a digital buy of about $130,000, targeting GOP Gov. Rick Scott in the Florida Senate race, while promoting Nelson. Some examples focus on the Supreme Court, health care, abortion rights and Planned Parenthood funding.

- FIRST IN SCORE - Democrat MJ Hegar in TX-31 is going up with a new ad, hitting GOP Rep. John Carter over debates and other public appearances. "You refuse to debate me, you haven't heard a public town hall with your constituents in over five years," Hegar says in the ad over footage of her riding a motorcycle. "What exactly are you afraid will happen, congressman?"

DON'T CLICK THAT - After HuffPost published an unflattering story about ECU, an anonymous contractor paid thousands of workers to drive positive coverage of the group to the top of Google results. HuffPost's Alexander Thorburn-Winsor and Paul Blumenthal: "[I]n the spring of 2018, an anonymous U.S.-based contractor paid at least 3,800 workers in countries around the world through the crowdsourcing firm Microworkers to manipulate what stories would come up when people searched for the PAC in Google, according to public job listings on Microworkers reviewed by HuffPost. The contractor paid each of the workers 20 cents to click on stories and sites that portrayed the PAC positively, bumping
those stories up in Google at the expense of critical coverage."

- Adam Bozzi, ECU's communications director, said in a statement to Score: "We've never heard of Microworkers until this story. We have terminated a relationship with a marketing consultant we had hired to help promote our work online. As a new group, we have looked for ways to increase our name ID, beginning well before that story was published."

AD ROUNDUP - We're four days out, and there's still new ads coming. I watched some that were released on Thursday. Spoiler alert: The messaging is probably what you expect.

EXPECTATION SETTING, DOWNBALLOT - How will the battle over statehouses play out? Republican State Leadership Committee President Matt Walter argued that the wave may not come as high as Democrats want. "Things are so close out there right now," he told Score, saying Democrats will not be able to come close to the "wave" that Republicans had in 2010, where they picked up 21 chambers and picked over 700 seats. Meanwhile, Democrats are still projecting confidence in a wave of their own. "We think Democrats can flip between 6-8 chambers ... and around 300-350 state legislative seats from red to blue," Jessica Post, the executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said in
a Thursday call with reporters (at the end of last year, she said they could flip up to 10). "We know it'll be an uphill battle," she continued, saying maps have been drawn to favor Republicans. "But we feel great about our chances."

One thing they both agree on? This year is incredibly important. "This is their shot, historically," Walter said, saying he thought Democrats would underperform, given the resources that have been poured in. Post called it a "a once-in-a-generation opportunity ... to change the face of power in state legislatures." Some chamber battles to watch, according to conversations Score had with aides working on both sides of the asle: The Wisconsin state Senate, Florida state Senate, both chambers in Michigan, Connecticut state Senate, both chambers in Pennsylvania, both chambers in Minnesota, Colorado state Senate, both chambers in Arizona, and the Maine state Senate (and of course, keep these
battles in mind in the context of redistricting, post-2020).

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "They don't always run a disciplined shop in other ways so you didn't expect it out of these folks, but the [midterm] organization is impressive," former GOP Rep. Tom Davis on the White House's midterm operation, which includes Cabinet officials appearing at official events with endangered Republicans, via The Washington Post.

** Presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: We stand with the families and survivors of the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting as they grieve, but we must also honor them with action. No more shootings with just "thoughts and prayers." No more preventable tragedies without action. As the Tree of Life congregation's leader, Rabbi Jeffrey Myers, wrote, "we deserve better."

That's why Everytown is all-in on electing leaders who will support common-sense gun safety measures. We're knocking on doors, making calls, turning out the vote, and spending $30 million to elect leaders who will put our safety first. On November 6, we will demonstrate that Americans are fed up - and voting on gun safety. NotOneMore.com **

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