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10/23/2018 10:00 AM EDT

By ZACH MONTELLARO (zmontellaro@politico.com; @ZachMontellaro)


Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.
THE TOPLINES
THE SENATE LANDSCAPE - Democrats got good news in the form of two public polls released Monday. A Quinnipiac University poll on Monday saw Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson holding a steady lead over GOP Gov. Rick Scott in Florida.The Q poll found Nelson leading Scott 52 percent to 46 percent, nearly identical results to a survey from the university in September. The latest poll surveyed 1,161 likely voters Oct. 17-21. It prompted the Scott campaign to release an internal poll from OnMessage that had him leading Nelson, 51 percent to 46 percent.

In West Virginia, a Gray Television/Strategic Research Associates had Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin with a big lead over Republican Patrick Morrisey, 52 percent to 36 percent. It was in the field Oct. 12-19 and surveyed 650 likely voters.

Yet another survey outlined the steep path to a Senate majority. A rare public North Dakota poll has GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer with a huge lead over Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp. Cramer is up 56 percent to 40 percent in the poll from Gray Television/Strategic Research Associates, which surveyed 650 likely voters from Oct. 12-19. There are about a half-dozen other races on the map that are toss-ups, half Democrat-held and half Republican-held, meaning Democrats would have to run the table - or pull off a big surprise somewhere else - to take the upper chamber.

But two weeks out from Election Day, Democrats say they're in good shape. In a new memo from the DSCC, shared first with Score, the committee argues that it has done a good job constricting the battlefield. Senate Democrats have cut "GOP targets in half and expand[ed] offensive opportunities," the memo says, adding, "Democratic registration and early voting are surging." The DSCC argues that the issues are in their favor, especially on health care. And it says that come Election Day, "Democrats have the enthusiasm, out-performing expectations all cycle."

To give them their best shot, Democrats have called in their big guns. Former President Barack Obama rallied for Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen in Nevada on Monday, urging Democrats to get to the polls. "Look, this November's elections are more important than any I can remember in my lifetime, and that includes when I was on the ballot," Obama said, my POLITICO colleagues James Arkin and Rebecca Morin repored. "That's saying something. Politicians say every time, 'This is the most important election.' This one is really that important."

Good Tuesday morning. TWO. WEEKS. Also, why? As always, email me at zmontellaro@politico.com or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and dstrauss@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 14

** Presented by AARP: Americans 50 and over are the most powerful voting bloc. Candidates should pay attention to them and the issues they care about. That's why POLITICO Focus and AARP brought together 50-plus voters in PA-18, the battleground Congressional district, to hear what's on their mind. Watch now. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=568b2cc9847d85bb9ca47ed60d41db9a24bca1b8f0760d196c0e6ee2356f0df2a7e3322ab04f7f73e956254efbe7fc60 **

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IN THE TRENCHES
POLLS POLLS POLLS - In the Vermont gubernatorial race, incumbent GOP Gov. Phil Scott has a comfortable lead over Democrat Christine Hallquist. A poll from VPR/Vermont PBS has him up, 42 percent over 28 percent. The poll surveyed 495 likely voters from Oct. 5-14.

- In NY-19, GOP Rep. John Faso and Democrat Antonio Delgado are neck-and-neck. The poll from Spectrum News/Siena College has Faso at 44 percent to Delgado's 43 percent. The survey polled 500 likely voters from Oct. 12-16.

PAY UP - Republican leaders are shaking down members who are in safe seats or retiring to try to make up for huge Democratic fundraising numbers. POLITICO's Rachael Bade and John Bresnahan (click through for the full list of targeted members): "At the outset of a private call with members last week, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) implored lawmakers to donate to the National Republican Congressional Committee or vulnerable colleagues. And NRCC Chairman Steve Stivers (R-Ohio) has been working the phones in one-on-one conversations to persuade members to give. ...

"Leaders are targeting some powerful outgoing chairmen, typically the most prolific fundraisers, who haven't met their annual required 'dues' to the NRCC, according to multiple sources. ... GOP leaders are also eyeing the war chests of some rank-and-file lawmakers in safer seats, including Freedom Caucus founder Jim Jordan's $1.5 million campaign account. ... The committee declined to provide POLITICO with a list of delinquent members or how much they owe in dues."

THE LATEST TRUMP RALLY - At a rally in Houston for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), President Donald Trump repeatedly praised Cruz and called Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke a "stone cold phoney," via The Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek and Emma Platoff. He also declared himself "a nationalist."

- Ahead of many rallies, Trump is leaning into interviews with local media to boost Republican candidates, POLITICO's Jason Schwartz and Christopher Cadelago.

- Trump is also hosting a Washington fundraiser for Jay Webber in NJ-11, Ross Spano in FL-15, and Carol Miller in WV-03 on Thursday, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reported.

MIDTERM MESSAGING - Some Republican candidates, led by Trump, have increasingly turned to fearmongering and outright racist overtures in the final weeks before the midterms. The New York Times' Alexander Burns and Astead Herndon: "President Trump on Monday sharply intensified a Republican campaign to frame the midterm elections as a battle over immigration and race, issuing a dark and factually baseless warning that 'unknown Middle Easterners' were marching toward the American border with Mexico.

"The unsubstantiated charge marked an escalation of Mr. Trump's efforts to stoke fears about foreigners and crime ahead of the Nov. 6 vote, as he did to great effect in the presidential race. Mr. Trump and other Republicans are insistently seeking to tie Democrats to unfettered immigration and violent crime, and in some instances this summer and fall they have attacked minority candidates in nakedly racial terms."

- A message not many Republicans are talking about? Their tax plan. POLITICO's Brian Faler: "[T]here's a lot of frustration and second-guessing among Republicans over how they failed to sell the tax law to voters. 'It's Republicans once again proving the old adage that they are the stupid party,' said David McIntosh, head of the Club for Growth. 'They've got a really good issue that they're not using.'"

VOTERS ARE VOTING - With the usual caveat that it's hard to extrapolate what early voting means for the final results... TargetSmart launched a tool tracking early voting data that many of you will find interesting. The tool will update twice a day.

BATTLEGROUND WATCH - The NRCC is going into Georgia's 6th District. Advertising Analytics tracked at least $1.39 million in broadcast spending and at least $99,000 on cable (a committee aide confirmed the size of the buy to Score) - the first independent expenditure spending from either party committee in the district. GOP Rep. Karen Handel is being challenged by Democrat Lucy McBath.

- The group is also dropping at least $600,000 on FL-18, where GOP Rep. Brian Mast is trying to hold off Democrat Lauren Baer, according to Advertising Analytics. The DCCC started spending in the district last week.

CLIP AND SAVE... - House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is projecting confidence that she'll regain the speaker's gavel should Democrats win the chamber, despite a number of candidates across the country saying they won't back her. "It is up to them to make that decision, but I feel pretty comfortable where I am," she told CNN.

ON THE AIRWAVES - FIRST IN SCORE - The Democrat-aligned House Majority PAC is launching a major ad blitz, dropping ads in 16 congressional districts. Many of the ads target Republicans, saying they want to cut Social Security and Medicare. In AZ-01, the ad hits Wendy Rogers over her past comments on Social Security, including when she said, "I'd like to see it phased out" ($451,000 buy). In CA-10, the ad says Rep. Jeff Denham took money from special interests and criticizes him on health care ($2.2 million buy). The CO-06 ad hits Rep. Mike Coffman over special interests and the GOP tax plan ($831,000 buy). In FL-07, the ad says Mike Miller helped steer taxpayer dollars to a private golf
course ($878,000 buy). In FL-18, the ad hits Rep. Brian Mast, saying he's "like every other politician" ($483,000 buy).

In IL-12, the ad calls Rep. Mike Bost "a career politician" who is beholden to special interests ($680,000 buy). The IL-13 ad targets Rep. Rodney Davis for backing the GOP health care and tax plans, "even if it means cutting Medicare and Social Security to pay for it" ($1.1 million buy). The MN-02 ad strikes a similar theme, targeting Rep. Jason Lewis ($640,000 buy). The MN-08 ad criticizes Pete Stauber over the GOP health care plan ($580,000 buy). In NC-13, the ad hits Rep. Ted Budd, saying Medicare and Social Security cuts will be used to lower taxes for special interests ($463,000 buy).

In NY-19, the ad hits Rep. John Faso for breaking his health care promises ($430,000 buy). In NY-24, the ad slams Rep. John Katko, saying he abandoned the district on health care and taxes ($1 million buy). The NV-03 ad goes after Danny Tarkanian's business record, saying he ran a "telemarketing scam" and helped create "fake charities" ($1.1 million buy). In TX-32, the ad says GOP Rep. Pete Sessions voted to "add nearly $2 trillion to the debt" and will pay for it with entitlement cuts ($2.3 million buy). In WA-08, the ad hits Dino Rossi over the GOP tax plan, saying "Exxon alone got a $6 billion break" ($657,000 buy). In WI-06, the ad says Rep. Glenn Grothman "is hurting you" with his
health care vote ($294,000 buy).

- FIRST IN SCORE - The Democratic outside group VoteVets is going up with a new ad in Maine's 2nd District, touting Democrat Jared Golden's military service while criticizing GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin's political career. "Service means different things to different people. For Jared Golden, it meant joining the Marines after 9/11," the ad says. "Congressman Bruce Poliquin has a different understanding: years spent in Washington, serving the special interests." The ad is backed by a $512,000 buy.

- FIRST IN SCORE - Congressional Leadership Fund is going up with an ad in IA-03, tying Democrat Cindy Axne to Pelosi. "In Washington, Axne would vote with Nancy Pelosi for open borders and amnesty," the ad says. "Liberal Cindy Axne and Nancy Pelosi would put Iowa families at risk."

- FIRST IN SCORE - Senate Majority PAC is dropping its latest ad in North Dakota, hitting Cramer over the trade war. "That's a lot of pain for North Dakota farmers," the ad says after news coverage of China ditching North Dakota soybeans. "Kevin Cramer won't stand up for them."

- FIRST IN SCORE - The liberal Patriot Majority USA launched a $2 million national GOTV television ad campaign, with an English- and Spanish-language ad.

OUTSIDE SPENDING - FIRST IN SCORE - America First Action, the super PAC aligned with the president, is dropping $350,000 in the Arizona Senate race backing GOP Rep. Martha McSally. The group said the money will largely be spent on phones and digital campaigns, with a mail component.

- FIRST IN SCORE - End Citizens United announced $1.7 million in new spending: $215,000 in ME-02 (TV), $575,000 in MN-03 (TV), $236,000 in MT-Sen (radio), $35,000 in ND-Sen (digital), $115,000 in NM-02 (radio), $90,000 in NY-22 (TV) and $412,000 in NY-19 (TV).

THE PRIMARY RECAP - Brookings is out with two extensive reports examining the primary candidates and voters. An interesting data point from the candidate study: a near-identical number of candidates described by the researchers as "establishment" and "progressive" ran in the Democratic primaries, while "conservative" candidates outnumbered "business/establishment" candidates nearly 2-to-1 in GOP primaries.

AD ROUNDUP - Daniel and I pulled together about 50 ads pushed out on Monday. A reoccuring theme in many of Monday's ads (and throughout the cycle)? Pelosi. She "stars" in ads for both Senate and House candidates, with Republicans trying to tie their opponents to her while Democrats say they've bucked her.

ELECTION DAY TURNOUT - A record number of American firms are giving workers paid time off to vote on Election Day, Bloomberg's Jordyn Holman and Sahil Kapur reported.

FIELD WORK - FIRST IN SCORE - The anti-abortion group Susan B. Anthony List announced that it canvassed 2 million homes this cycle. They hit doors in Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Montana, Florida, West Virginia, Ohio and Arizona. The group's super PAC is also targeting Senate Democratic candidates with a $585,000 digital campaign (a sample ad) in Arizona, Wisconsin, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Tennessee and the Iowa gubernatorial race.

- FIRST IN SCORE - Mobilize, a digital platform for Democratic campaigns and causes, announced its latest GOTV numbers. Over 1,000 campaigns and organizations have used the app for an estimated 4.7 million door knocks - including over 1 million in the past week.

DROPPING A BOMB - Scott Wallace, the Democrat running in PA-01, "dropped an f-bomb" during a debate at a local synagogue with GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, WBCB's Rick Rickman reported. Fitzpatrick criticized Wallace for it and Wallace later apologized.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "He's not Lyin' Ted anymore. He's Beautiful Ted," Trump on Cruz, before departing the White House for a rally supporting Cruz.

** Presented by AARP: If candidates want to win in November they need to listen to 50-plus voters. More Americans 50 and over vote than any other voting bloc and the issues they care about including Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers and prescription drug costs, are all on the line. They're frustrated with broken government, fed up with politicians who would rather fight than get results, and are planning to turn out on election day. That's why POLITICO Focus and AARP brought together 50-plus voters in PA-18, the battleground Congressional district, to hear what's on their mind. Watch now and see it for yourself. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=568b2cc9847d85bb9ca47ed60d41db9a24bca1b8f0760d196c0e6ee2356f0df2a7e3322ab04f7f73e956254efbe7fc60 **

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