EMAIL DETAILS

Dear Friends,

You may be interested in the following update our Elections team developed
yesterday regarding the road to the nomination for presidential candidates
in the Democrat and Republican parties.

Cheers,

James

*James van der Klok*

National Democratic Institute for International Affairs
455 Massachusetts Ave., NW, 8th Floor
Washington DC 20001
Office: 202-728-5516
Mobile: 202.256.2079
*james@ndi.org <jvanderklok@ndi.org>*
www.ndi.org


An Updated Guide to Primaries and Caucuses

​In the last month, a great deal has changed in the
U.S. primary and caucus system. Primaries have been won and lost,
candidates have dropped out of the race and there have been protests and
riots. Nearly half of all states and territories have voted, but no
candidate has reached the required delegates yet to secure the nomination.


Who’s winning?

You’ve heard of Super Tuesday (March 1) and you probably know of Super
Tuesday #2 (March 15). On those two dates 16 states (and a few territories)
held primaries or caucuses. Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are still in
the race on the Democratic side, while Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and John
Kasich are still in the Republican contest.

Below are the delegate standings as of March 23, with 45 states and
territories decided and 28 more states and territories to still vote.
Voting will continue through April and May, with the last big primary day
happening on June 7 in California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South
Dakota and North Dakota (for Democrats). The last primary is June 14 in the
District of Columbia.


Democrats (2,382 needed to win)

Republicans (1,237 needed to win)

Hillary Clinton - 1,681

Donald Trump - 739

Bernie Sanders - 937

Ted Cruz - 465

John Kasich -143

The Democratic side allocates delegates in proportion to the number of
votes each candidates receives, while an increasing number of Republican
primaries have switched over to a “winner-take-all” or “winner-take-most”
system. Winning those states could provide a large delegate boost for
candidates.

What happens after every state votes?

In the past several elections, a candidate has emerged with a majority of
delegates on or before the date of the last primary or caucus. However,
this has not always been the case, and many political pundits think that
this year the Republicans may end up going into their national convention
with none of the three remaining candidates garnering a majority of
delegates.

If no candidate receives the necessary number of delegates before the
convention or during the first round of convention voting, the so-called
pledged delegates are released from their pledges in later rounds. This is
referred to as a “brokered convention” and it could result in a big
surprise. If a brokered convention occurs, supporters, staff, party
officials and others will attempt to persuade “pledged” delegates to vote
one way or another in further rounds of voting until a majority chooses the
nominee. That can be a messy process, and delegates can end up choosing
anyone as the party’s presidential candidate, even if that person did not
run in the primaries.


Another curveball could be if an independent candidate gets into the race
in addition to the two candidates nominated from the two major parties.
This election has already drawn significant media attention. Expect more in
the coming months and in July during the two parties' conventions