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By Elena Schneider | 03/11/2016 10:00 AM EDT


With Theodoric Meyer and Kevin Robillard

NO MIAMI HEAT ON THE LEADER - Trump's rivals pull their punches," by POLITICO's Eli Stokols and Shane Goldmacher: "Donald Trump is on the verge of running away with the Republican nomination and yet none of his rivals, despite their desperation to stop him, are punching up. On Tuesday night as the four remaining candidates took the debate stage here at the University of Miami, Trump answered a question on free trade by asserting - in one sentence - that he uses H-1B visas to hire foreign workers for his vast business empire and that such visas are 'frankly, very, very bad for workers.' And not one of his three remaining rivals hit him for it. Moments later, Marco Rubio, whose support
cratered in the last two weeks after he ratcheted up his attacks on Trump, drew a more measured, substantive contrast with Trump on the issue of reforming entitlement programs, a matter of critical importance in Florida." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=617897f46d68328dfa764935a6d8934470625b0baabec4d057a530e66a2c9a78

- LAST NIGHT IN TAKEAWAYS - "10 most interesting moments of the GOP debate," by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney: "The urgency of Thursday night's debate for Marco Rubio and John Kasich - in danger of losing their home states to Donald Trump next week - was palpable, but the candidates largely stuck to their talking points in the early going of what could be one of the last debates of the primary season." Quick rundown: 1. Trump keeps calm ... 2. Trump renews call for GOP unity ... 3. Trump announced Carson endorsement ... 4. Cruz gives Trump a pass ... 5. Trump, Cruz engage on trade ... 6. Rubio rejects Trump's characterization of Muslims ..." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=617897f46d68328de8195a4387dc1848be39edf1b4ba2a89cdde54f5f8453514

COLD, HARD MATH - "Trump's tricky path to Cleveland," by POLITICO's Scott Bland and Steven Shepard: "Donald Trump is the only Republican candidate with a realistic chance of winning the 1,237 delegates necessary to claim the party's presidential nomination, according to a POLITICO analysis. A close examination of demographics, polling and delegate allocation rules in the remaining states suggests there is a path for Trump to win a majority of delegates, but it is a tightrope walk that leaves the businessman with little margin for error. The outlook for his rivals is grim - there is almost no way they can get to the magic number. ... Trump needs to win more than 54 percent of the remaining
delegates to clinch the nomination. To do so, he would have to notch big wins on Tuesday ... and then follow up with strong performances in Arizona later this month; Wisconsin, New York and several mid-Atlantic states in April; Indiana and West Virginia in May; and the major delegate prizes of California and New Jersey in June."

- "A competitive Republican presidential contest has never stretched this late into the year. Even knowledgeable GOP strategists aren't entirely sure what to expect from suddenly important states like New York, Pennsylvania and others. 'Do blue-state Republicans always vote for the "establishment" candidate because the establishment candidate is winning and will be the nominee, or do they vote establishment because they are establishment?' said [a] Republican strategist. 'I don't think we have the foggiest idea what those folks are going to do ... because they have not been in real contests.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=617897f46d68328db5139baa3613109015fe709a8b677fe59be67b686a2fe1d5

Days until the March 15 primaries: 3. Days until the 2016 election: 241. Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, tmeyer@politico.com and kcheney@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about our dislike of House of Cards: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @kyledcheney.

NOW AVAILABLE: HARD TO ACCESS CAMPAIGN DETAILS - POLITICO Pro, POLITICO's premium solution for policy professionals offers Campaign Pro. Get breaking news and analysis about this season's most competitive races. You'll also have access to the Campaign Pro Race Dashboard, providing you with important campaign details in one, convenient place. Beyond 2016, you'll continue to receive a behind-the-curtain look at potential races, including insight about candidate/consulting firm partnerships and about fundraising efforts. Request your Campaign Pro demo today.

FIRST IN SCORE - FreedomWorks for America goes up for GOP Sen. Mike Lee: The conservative group will spend $15,000 in a radio ad buy backing Lee, touting his voting record in the Senate. "During his first term, Mike Lee has worked tirelessly to protect your privacy, to promote school choice, and to give your town more control over how to build its roads and bridges," the ad says. "Know that when it comes to protecting your rights, he will never let Utah down." The ad will air in Salt Lake City, starting today and go through March 17.

POWERFUL DEM GROUPS TAKE SIDES IN NV-04 - In a four-way Democratic primary in a blue-leaning seat, outside groups are weighing in on who they think is best to take on Republican Rep. Cresent Hardy. EMILY's List endorsed philanthropist Susie Lee, giving her a national fundraising platform and calling her "deeply committed to serving the most vulnerable Nevadans because she saw firsthand that community support can help disadvantaged children overcome barriers to opportunity," according to a statement released Wednesday.

- Meanwhile: The League of Conservation Voters Action Fund endorsed state Sen. Ruben Kihuen. The Culinary Union, one of the most influential labor groups in the state, already backed Kihuen in February, and is now reportedly trying to push the AFL-CIO into an endorsement of Kihuen, too, The Las Vegas Sun reported. The group also attacked Lee in its letter to the AFL-CIO about the 4th District. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=617897f46d68328dcb3ad93857f97aa08cde2d09590bd2e40b70bc4ff68fcc43

- ADDRESSES A'CHANGING IN NC-12 - LCV also backs Alma Adams ahead of primary: Democratic Rep. Alma Adams' district will change dramatically under the new congressional map, and she's moving homes to reflect that. On Wednesday, Adams, a longtime Greensboro resident, said she will move to Charlotte, inside her district's new boundaries, WCNC reported. She also was able to tout a new endorsement: The League of Conservation Voters Action Fund. Adams' announcement came on the heels of news that former state Sen. Malcolm Graham will challenge her again in a Democratic primary. Graham ran against her in 2014, garnering high percentages among Charlotte voters, but Adams won thanks to her Greensboro
base. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=617897f46d68328d8234cb42ecef197d86012e6d7ac7e2b8c82f1e7cd6f961c3

DEPARTURES LOUNGE - "House veterans panel chief Jeff Miller retiring," by POLITICO's Lauren French: "Eight-term Florida Republican Rep. Jeff Miller announced Thursday he won't seek reelection in 2016. Miller spent the majority of his congressional career advocating for veterans, rising to chairman of the House Veterans Affairs Committee in 2011 and playing a pivotal role in the $16.3 billion bill that overhaul the embattled Veterans Affairs Department. ...The 1st District seat in Florida, formerly represented by MSNBC's Joe Scarborough, is solidly Republican. It has a strong military presence." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=617897f46d68328d36b0fd159a6091a5e448106ffd0616d2233939e730cf5b62

DAILY DOSE OF POLITICAL ADS - Outside group buy more airtime ahead of OH-08 primary: A super PAC with ties to establishment Republicans in Congress is going on the air days before the primary in Ohio's 8th District to fill House Speaker John Boehner's seat. The super PAC, Defending Main Street, is spending $60,000 on TV ads attacking Warren Davidson, a businessman backed by the Club for Growth. The ad accuses Davidson of supporting President Barack Obama's jobs plan and shipping jobs to China "just to boost his profits." "Shipping Ohio jobs to China?" the narrator says. "We can't afford to send Warren Davidson to Congress." Defending Main Street has already run radio ads going after
Davidson.

- The race has for the safely Republican district north of Cincinnati has become a proxy battle between the Club for Growth and more establishment-oriented GOP outside groups. CULAC, the Credit Union National Association's PAC has also upped its TV ad buy ahead of next week's primary, dropping another $50,000 on ads supporting GOP state Rep. Tim Derickson and bringing its total spending to $250,000.

- Watching Defending Main Street's TV ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=617897f46d68328d45c3e2a0c405315adb9907c53b0fe4902221410ad6fc236b

- Watch CULAC's TV ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3ec58b9ffe32935e43a9461fcc4cadd79f9023f2773efde9b8f684af58efabe6

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Republican senators hold their noses for Cruz," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett: "It's come to this for Senate Republicans: The man who's ripped them as part of the Washington 'cartel' and dismissed their leader as a liar and a Democrat is starting to win their ever-so-grudging support for president. The endorsement of Ted Cruz by conservative Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) Thursday is the first sign that at least a handful of GOP senators are prepared to hold their noses and get behind the Texas senator, given an alternative they see as even more noxious and politically damaging: Donald Trump." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=617897f46d68328dbd5567a64609341d1a8ed0caebba5694bc3fb6e255c022de

- "Hillary Clinton's backseat driver," by POLITICO's Annie Karni: " ... The unprompted defense of Sanders, from one of the stewards of Obama's legacy, was as undermining of Clinton's argument as anything the Vermont senator said on stage to justify his own position. Yet by calling out the former secretary of state on the substance of her attack, Axelrod occupied a role that's become all too familiar - and all too annoying - to the Clinton campaign. As a CNN senior political correspondent, host of his own podcast and Twitter junkie, Axelrod has become Clinton's backseat driver, quick to point out flaws and offer unsolicited advice." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=617897f46d68328d73657afc7fef4ba3ac8455c4963054fc8e887d62c3a271cd

- "Trump makes inroads with megadonors," by POLITICO's Kenneth P. Vogel: "The GOP's biggest donors are mostly united in their distaste for the party's presidential front-runner Donald Trump, but they increasingly are coming to grips with the prospect of his nomination, and many are now signaling they would support him in a general election. The shift, detailed in interviews with a dozen major donors and their representatives, is less an indication that the party's donor class is warming to Trump, and more a reflection of their disdain for Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton. Their willingness to rally in opposition to Clinton should tamp down concerns on the right that the
lingering unease with Trump would mean a free pass for Clinton from big-money attacks in a prospective general election matchup with Trump." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3ec58b9ffe32935ea3e397de3607895c8d03cd9b976f69eb573ec011664f5db2

- "Memo: GOP donors pushing Condoleezza Rice to run independent campaign," by POLITICO's Matt Dixon: "A group of Republican donors and strategists has been working to persuade former Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice to make an independent bid for president, according to a memo outlining the plan obtained by POLITICO Florida." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3ec58b9ffe32935e7d222957db7ff053cfbd6f0af248b17d21229e1eccd6b4a4

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "It's a different situation ... Generally, and this is the way it works out politically, if you're replacing - if a conservative president's replacing a conservative justice, there's a little more accommodation to it." - GOP Sen. Ron Johnson, saying on the radio that if Mitt Romney were president right now, nominating a Supreme Court judge would be "different," Talking Points Memo reported. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3ec58b9ffe32935e5d79c8d8c407517d5e20a89a79b598ad41a61c856f5bfb0d

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