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GOP needs six seats to pick up control of the Senate. Five seats means VP breaks the tie.

That said, bottom line is that if the GOP wins control of the Senate, they still won't have filibuster proof control of the Senate and POTUS still has veto power. Very little chance GOP loses House - in fact, may pick up seats.

Also, likely Dems may pick up a couple key Gov's races - PA and FL in particular. Will be important in 2016.

FYI, when I talked to Jon Traub this weekend he said that there is a real debate within the GOP and between the House and the Senate GOP about whether expectations are being raised too much that GOP control of the Senate will enable them to get anything done and that will really screw with their opportunity to win in 2016.

Will also be interesting to see if Reid steps down as Leader if Dems lose Senate. I don't think so - but Schumer certainly would be chomping at the bit for that position.

Key Senate races:

Ones many predict are definite GOP pick ups:

South Dakota (Johnson retiring)
West Virginia (Rockefeller retiring)
Montana (Baucus retirement but not sure Walsh being incumbent helps much)

On the bubble:

North Carolina (I think Hagan is out)
Arkansas (Pryor is looking pretty good right now)
Louisiana (Landrieu is holding her own as new Energy Comm Chair - because it will likely go to a run off - this race may very well decide control of the Senate)
Alaska (Depends on who GOP nominates - good chance it is a tea party guy)

Dem Pick Up Opportunities:

Georgia (Michelle Nunn; no GOP nominee yet but won't be a Tea Party person)
Kentucky (McConnell is tied in polls and consistently below 50%)

Other potentials if things go GOP way:

New Hampshire (Shaheen is way ahead)
Colorado (Cory Gardner is a good nominee but Udall is holding his own)
Michigan (Dem Rep Gary Peters is ahead - not a great GOP nominee)
Iowa (Braley has put his foot in his mouth but GOP will likely nominate a Tea Party woman)
Oregon (Merkely should be OK - GOP nom has been accused of stalking her ex-boyfriends)


Eric D. Schwerin
Rosemont Seneca Partners, LLC
1010 Wisconsin Ave., NW
Suite 705
Washington, DC 20007
(202) 333-1880
eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com
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