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The Evening: End of Strategic Patience, Sarin Gas Confirmed, July 4th and More
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** Good Evening,
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It's Friday, June 30th.

NOTE: The Evening will be “gone fishin’” until July 10. Happy Fourth of July!


** Strategic Patience is Over
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President Donald Trump, speaking alongside President Moon Jae-in of South Korea, declared today that U.S. patience with the North Korean regime “is over,” as CNN’s Jeremy Diamond reports (http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/30/politics/trump-moon-jae-in-rose-garden/index.html?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0e1c21b41c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0e1c21b41c-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: Visit CSIS’s interactive micro-website “Missile Threat (https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0e1c21b41c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0e1c21b41c-145367789) .”

And see CFR’s backgrounder by Eleanor Albert on NK’s military capabilities (https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/north-koreas-military-capabilities?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0e1c21b41c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0e1c21b41c-145367789) .

Plus, see short videos by the Peterson Institute with Marcus Noland on “Why Sanctions and Inducements on North Korea Don’t Work (https://piie.com/newsroom/short-videos/why-sanctions-and-inducements-north-korea-dont-work?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0e1c21b41c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0e1c21b41c-145367789) .”


** Challenges in Hong Kong
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President Xi Jinping of China, visiting Hong Kong for the 20th anniversary of its return to Chinese rule, said today the city’s “one country, two systems” formula faces “new challenges,” as pro-democracy campaigners ramped up their protests, as Reuters’ Greg Torode and Venus Wu report (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-anniversary-idUSKBN19L0AT?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0e1c21b41c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0e1c21b41c-145367789) .

And in Beijing, China on Friday strongly protested a U.S. plan to sell $1.4 billion worth of arms to Taiwan and demanded that the deal be canceled, as CBS News reports (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-demands-us-nix-taiwan-arms-weapons-deal-one-china-policy?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0e1c21b41c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0e1c21b41c-145367789) .


** Sarin Gas Confirmed
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The nerve agent sarin was used in a chemical attack in April that killed scores of civilians in northern Syria, a global watchdog confirmed today, days after the White House accused President Bashar al-Assad’s government of planning a similar strike, as the
Washington Post’s Louisa Loveluck reports (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/global-watchdog-confirms-nerve-agent-used-in-april-attack-on-syrian-civilians/2017/06/30/aa316cb6-5c16-11e7-aa69-3964a7d55207_story.html?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0e1c21b41c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0e1c21b41c-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: See CSIS’s Critical Questions (our signature series of asked and answered short papers) by Rebecca Hersman: “Unpacking Syria’s Chemical Weapons Problem (https://www.csis.org/analysis/unpacking-syrias-chemical-weapons-problem?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0e1c21b41c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0e1c21b41c-145367789) .”


** In That Number
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** 80%
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ISIS in Iraq and Syria has lost 80% of its revenue and more than 60% of its territory since its cataclysmic rise in 2014. Source: IHS Markit (http://news.ihsmarkit.com/press-release/aerospace-defense-security/islamic-state-territory-down-60-percent-and-revenue-down-80?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0e1c21b41c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0e1c21b41c-145367789) .


** Critical Quote
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** “I think the U.S. in coordination with ROK leadership, and in consultation with other regional stakeholders—should offer to establish an Interest Section in Pyongyang, like the one we had in Havana, Cuba for decades as a form of diplomatic representation with a government we didn’t recognize.”
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—James Clapper, former director of national intelligence, in the CSIS Korea Chair Platform (https://www.csis.org/analysis/2017-j-csis-forum-keynote-remarks-honorable-james-clapper?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0e1c21b41c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0e1c21b41c-145367789) .


** iDeas Lab
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Die Welt
CSIS's ChinaPower micro-site has a new feature, "Are Maritime Law Enforcement Forces Destabilizing Asia? (http://chinapower.csis.org/maritime-forces-destabilizing-asia/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0e1c21b41c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0e1c21b41c-145367789) "

The Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab at CSIS enhances our research with the latest in cutting-edge web technologies, design, and video.


** Optics
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Die Welt
(Photo Credit: Mark Wilson/Getty Images.)
President Donald Trump and President Moon Jae-in of South Korea shake hands while delivering joint statements in the Rose Garden of the White House today.


** Recommended Reading
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“The Development of Cyber Norms at the United Nations Ends in Deadlock. Now What? (https://www.cfr.org/blog-post/development-cyber-norms-united-nations-ends-deadlock-now-what?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0e1c21b41c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0e1c21b41c-145367789) ” Via CFR’s Adam Segal.


** This Town Next Week
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Join CSIS on Thursday, July 6, at 9:30 a.m. for “Export Financing in an Increasingly Competitive World: Challenges from China and Beyond (https://www.csis.org/events/export-financing-increasingly-competitive-world-challenges-china-and-beyond?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0e1c21b41c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0e1c21b41c-145367789) .”

And join CSIS for the launch of a new report, Joint US-China Think Tank Project on the Future of US-China Relations: An American Perspective (https://www.csis.org/events/managing-us-china-relations-american-and-chinese-perspectives-report-launch?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0e1c21b41c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0e1c21b41c-145367789) .


** On Demand
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Yesterday, CSIS hosted a debate on US nuclear weapon modernization. You can watch the event on demand here (https://www.csis.org/events/debate-us-nuclear-weapon-modernization?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0e1c21b41c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0e1c21b41c-145367789) .


** Sounds
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The latest Global Dispatches podcast (http://www.globaldispatchespodcast.com/how-the-supreme-courts-ruling-on-trumps-travel-ban-will-impact-refugees-around-the-world/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0e1c21b41c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0e1c21b41c-145367789) explores how the Supreme Court’s travel ban ruling will impact refugees around the world.


** Smiles
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Independence Day (July 4) is my favorite holiday—it always has been. Since
The Evening is off next week I’d like to wish you all a safe and happy 4th in advance. And I know no better way to do that than to play something from Southern California’s all-time greatest rock and roll band—The Beach Boys.

In 1984, the Beach Boys gave an Independence Day concert on the National Mall to an audience of more than 750,000 people. That’s a fact. Watch this clip from ’84 of “Help me Rhonda” and “Fun, Fun, Fun.” (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7cP9FsA4Lc&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0e1c21b41c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0e1c21b41c-145367789) You’ll get a sense of the Mall that day and the spirit of America. Oh, and there’s this guy named Ringo on drums…
I invite you to email me at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org) and follow me on Twitter @handrewschwartz (https://www.twitter.com/handrewschwartz?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0e1c21b41c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0e1c21b41c-145367789)

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The Evening is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Colm Quinn, Brandon Schwartz, and Jackie Ramsay.

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