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EconVue Spotlight

To download [The ICO Explosion: A Primer by Grant Hummer 7.8.2017.pdf], click on the following link:
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Dear R. Hunter,

We have been following FinTech for a while now, but recently stories
about blockchain and cryptocurrencies have been appearing everywhere.
ICO's, or Initial Coin Offerings are beginning to look like a gold rush.
Beyond the hype, driven by exponential returns for the likes of Bitcoin
and Ethereum, what are the constraints on further growth?

I asked Grant Hummer, who leads the 1600-member SF Ethereum Developers
Meetup

https://www.meetup.com/SF-Ethereum-Developers/

to elucidate. His report is attached. Key uncertainties including
scalability, performance, and catastrophic system failure remain
unresolved. One example: "The Ethereum network can perform 15
transactions per second. Bitcoin is hamstrung at 4 transactions per
second, Visa, by contrast, can perform up to 56,000 transactions per
second."

Unless breakthroughs are made, blockchain is not the next Internet. Also
of note: major involvement by China. Cyptocurrencies are not affected by
capital controls. We've included links to a range of articles below.

Finally, if you're looking for a good book to read on economics this
summer, I recommend MIT Professor Andrew Lo's The Adaptive Markets
Hypothesis

http://evonomics.com/it-takes-a-theory-to-beat-a-theory-andrew-lo/

. His intriguing idea is that financial markets follow biological, not
economic laws.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT

Blockchain Realizing the Potential of Blockchain

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Realizing_Potential_Blockchain.pdf

World Economic Forum June 2017 A multistakeholder approach to the
stewardship of blockchain and cryptocurrencies WTF is an ICO?

https://techcrunch.com/2017/05/23/wtf-is-an-ico/

Alex Wilheim 5/23/2017 TechCrunch Think IPO, in reverse. Coinschedule -
The best cryptocurrency ICO list. Only selected ICOs and crowdfunding
projects

https://www.coinschedule.com/

Coinschedule 2017 Blockchain Video Platform To Launch 30 bln Token ICO
At 3 Satoshis Each

https://cointelegraph.com/news/blockchain-video-platform-to-launch-30-bln-token-ico-at-3-satoshis-each

William Suberg 7/7/2017 Cointelegraph Beyond Bitcoin: How Blockchain Is
Changing Banking

http://www.barrons.com/articles/beyond-bitcoin-how-blockchain-is-changing-banking-1498890463?lf-content=201748669:709116453&hubRefSrc=twitter

Avi Salzman 7/1/2017 Barron's Eliminating trust in the system is what
blockchain is all about, and it is going to be costly and difficult to
scale. Prediction: fotunes will be lost, not made, trying to accomplish
this. U.S. Managing U.S.-China Relations: American and Chinese
Perspectives: A Report Launch

https://www.csis.org/events/managing-us-china-relations-american-and-chinese-perspectives-report-launch

CSIS 7/6/2017 Video and Report Diao Daming at the Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences expects new emphasis by China on "sub-national"
relationships in the US - at the state and city level, as high-level
US-China uncertainties remain. U.S. auto sales fall for fourth straight
month in June

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-sales-usa-idUSKBN19O1PJ

Nick Carey 7/3/2017 Reuters U.S. auto sales fall for the fourth straight
month in June. The average car loan is now almost 70 months, leaving
many under water. Jeb Hensarling tells bankers ending Fannie and Freddie
is still the best path forward

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/jeb-hensarling-tells-bankers-ending-fannie-and-freddie-is-still-the-best-path-forward/article/2626608

Joseph Lawler 6/21/2017 Washington Examiner World I'm worried about
where US-China relations is now headed on North Korea

https://twitter.com/MrKRudd/status/882068572003901440

Kevin Rudd 7/3/2017 Twitter Former Australian PM says we've reached the
tipping point. Great summary of the concatenation of recent events.
Another Lesson from Japan

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/advanced-economies-low-inflation-weak-demand-by-stephen-s--roach-2017-06?referrer=/MMMQic5J6s

Stephen Roach 6/26/2017 Project Syndicate It's all about aggregate
demand, or rather lack of it. Koike's camp clobbers Abe's LDP in
historic Tokyo assembly election

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/07/02/national/politics-diplomacy/koike-camp-dethrones-abes-ldp-historic-tokyo-assembly-election/#.WWArzojyuUn

Tomohiro Osaki 7/2/2017 Japan Times Japan's governing party suffers
crushing defeat in Tokyo local elections; is Abe's dominance coming to
an end? France will ban all petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/france-petrol-diesel-ban-vehicles-cars-2040-a7826831.html

Chloe Farand 7/6/2017 Independent This is just one example of why oil
prices are likely to trend downwards for decades, and will not reignite
inflation.

ECONVUE RESEARCH

Population, Participation and Productivity: How to Think about Long-Run
Economic Growth

https://econvue.com/pulse/population-participation-and-productivity-how-think-about-long-run-economic-growth

Saul Eslake

https://econvue.com/experts/saul-eslake

Economist Saul Eslake's presentation to the International Conference of
Commercial Economists (ICCBE) in Paris this week. Data Round-Up: Private
Jobs Trend Picking Up; Wages Lull Should Be Short-Lived

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/data-round-private-jobs-trend-picking-wages-lull-should-be-short-lived

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

Before today, the FOMC was all-but-certain to pause at their late July
meeting. That has not changed but, overall, today's results do give
hawks some more ammunition. The private payroll jobs trend is firming;
hours worked are doing even better. Wages growth disappointed, again,
but given still-very-low unemployment, their uptrend should resume very
soon.

Chicago's FinTech Fizzle?

https://econvue.com/pulse/chicagos-fintech-fizzle

Collin Canright

https://econvue.com/experts/collin-canright

In terms of venture money, Chicago falls way short. Yet in terms of
micro projects, Chicago and the State of Illinois are making progress,
seeking to build on the city's long history of innovation in the
technologies that power capital markets and financial services.
Blockchain, Baby!

http://econvue.com/pulse/blockchain-baby

Collin Canright

https://econvue.com/experts/collin-canright

With all best wishes,


Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

Econvue.com
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