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By Maggie Severns | 02/22/2018 10:00 AM EDT


With Kevin Robillard, Elena Schneider, Zach Montellaro and Daniel Strauss

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

WHAT ABOUT BOB - No clear timeline for Corker announcement: Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker's decision on whether he'll jump into the race for his seat remains up in the air, and it's not clear what the timeline is. Corker is scheduled to speak at the Shelby County Lincoln Day Dinner on Saturday night in Memphis one night after Rep. Marsha Blackburn, who is already running, is set to speak at the Williamson County Reagan Day Dinner in Nashville's southern suburbs. A survey of national and Tennessee GOP operatives found no clear consensus: Many national Republicans don't believe Corker would enter a race that polling indicates would be a nearly certain loss; many Tennessee Republicans think former
Rep. Stephen Fincher's decision to drop out of the contest is a dead giveaway. But no one is giving 100 percent confident answers.

- Blackburn is fighting back: Blackburn on Wednesday rolled out endorsements from two-thirds of the Republicans in Tennessee's state Senate, including the state's lieutenant governor, Randy McNally. (In Tennessee, the lieutenant governor serves as president of the state Senate and is elected by other senators.) The endorsements follow polls from two political allies of Blackburn, Senate Conservatives Fund and American Future Fund Political Action, showing her with leads of more than 20 points over Corker. Corker's allies argue his primary poll numbers can rebound with some assistance from President Donald Trump, but Blackburn's divisiveness in the general electorate is fixed.

- Still up in the air: How do the Senate Leadership Fund and NRSC handle a potential Corker re-entry? The NRSC is an incumbent protection organization but is already cash-strapped. And Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is content with Blackburn as the party's nominee.

- Democrats sit and wait: Democratic former Gov. Phil Bredesen's campaign has been mostly quiet. So has the DSCC.

- And here's a tidbit from The New York Times' Jonathan Martin: "Mr. Corker, who once suggested that the president required day care and that he might blunder the country into World War III, has mounted a charm offensive to win back the president's affection - a prerequisite if the senator is to delay his retirement plans and capture the Republican nomination in Tennessee. ... [T]he president's aides, who are more apt to hold grudges, are all too aware of Mr. Trump's weakness for flattery and are doing their best to keep him from blessing Mr. Corker. It was no accident, one West Wing official noted, that they placed Ms. Blackburn near the president's side last Friday for a bill signing that
otherwise drew little attention." Full story.

CASH RACE - FIRST IN SCORE - NRSC raises $4.5M, spends slightly more: The NRSC raised $4.5 million and spent just slightly more than that in January, according to an FEC filing. The committee now has $15.2 million on hand and $7 million in debt. It had the same amount on hand at the end of 2017, but brought its debt down from $9.5 million. The DSCC raised $5.4 million in January, and has $23 million on hand.

Days until the 2018 election: 258

Upcoming election dates - Arizona 8th District special primary: Feb. 27. Texas primaries: March 6. Pennsylvania 18th District special election: March 13. Illinois primaries: March 20.

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PRIMARY WATCH - EMILY's List wades into CA-48, CA-10: EMILY's List jumped into the crowded primary to take on GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher by endorsing Democrat Rachel Payne, a technology company executive. Payne is a late arrival to the race, announcing her bid in December. Several other candidates, some who have also drawn other national endorsements, are already in the race, including Hans Keirstead and Harley Rouda. EMILY's List also endorsed Virginia Madueno, the former mayor of Riverbank, who's running against several other Democrats to take on GOP Rep. Steve Knight.

- Schumer weighs in on Texas primary: "New York Democrat Chuck Schumer endorses Tahir Javed in Houston race to replace U.S. Rep. Gene Green," via The Texas Tribune: "An upstart candidate running to win the seat held by U.S. Rep. Gene Green, D-Houston, has gained a highly visible supporter: U.S. Senate Minority Leader [Chuck] Schumer. ... Schumer's public support for Javed is at odds with the local and federal Democratic establishment, who have largely endorsed state Sen. Sylvia Garcia's bid for the seat." Full story.

COMING UP ON FRIDAY: Join us for the Eighth Annual State Solutions Conference, a conversation with governors from across the country about their innovative policy approaches in the states. Doors open Friday, Feb. 23 at 9 a.m. - 901 K St NW. Details here.

SPECIAL ELECTION SEASON - "Flirtatious texts, topless photo roil Steve Montenegro's campaign; he blasts 'false tabloid trash,'" by The Arizona Republic's Ronald J. Hansen and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez: "Days before Steve Montenegro decided to run for Congress, a state Senate staffer was trading flirtatious text messages with a cellphone number associated with Montenegro, according to a record of the messages viewed by The Arizona Republic. During one exchange in November, while Montenegro was on a work trip in Tennessee, the messages discuss how the staffer could have attended the conference as well. The staffer later sent a topless photo of herself to the number. ... The texts suggest a
close, consensual relationship, albeit between an ambitious elected official and someone in an entry-level legislative job." Full story.

ON THE AIRWAVES - NRCC drops new ad in PA-18: The NRCC released a new TV ad on Wednesday, continuing its attack line on Democrat Conor Lamb's tenure as a federal prosecutor. The ad focuses on a plea bargain that allowed a Naval Academy professor accused of sexual assault "to keep his taxpayer funded retirement benefits." Watch the ad here.

- 314 Action announces TV reservations in 2018: 314 Action, a liberal group trying to elect scientists to political office, reserved TV ad time in three expensive media markets in the two weeks ahead of those primaries: $1 million in Los Angeles, $500,000 in Detroit and $350,000 in Seattle. 314 Action has endorsed three candidates in California, all of whom are running in crowded primaries, including Mai-Khanh Tran (CA-39), Brian Forde (CA-45) and Hans Keirstead (CA-48). In Michigan, 314 Action has endorsed Suneel Gupta in the open race to replace GOP Rep. Dave Trott. 314 Action hasn't backed a candidate in Washington state yet, but there are two Democrats - Shannon Hader and Kim Schrier -
who are both doctors and running to replace Rep. Dave Reichert.

- Gil Cisneros focuses on DREAMers in second TV ad in CA-39: Democrat Gil Cisneros released his second TV ad on Wednesday, focused on DREAMers. Cisneros promises "to protect the DREAMers and create a path to citizenship for those who are contributing to our community. Because where you start in life shouldn't limit how far you can go." Watch the ad here.

WEB WARS - Not One Penny goes after AAN with digital ads: Not One Penny, a liberal group, is going up with digital ads, part of a five-figure buy, in 12 House districts that parodies a pro-tax reform ad from American Action Network. "Over the next year, our wealthy donors will spend millions on ads like this lying to you," the ad says. "We'll say tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires are good for the middle class. We're counting on you to fall for it." The targeted districts: CA-25, CA-45, ME-02, FL-18, MI-06, MI-08, NJ-03, NY-22, NY-24, PA-06, PA-08 and VA-02. Check out the ad here.

- With Honor backs Kenneth Sheets with digital ad in TX-05: With Honor, a group that backs veteran candidates, is out with a five-figure digital buy to boost Republican Kenneth Sheets, a former state representative and veteran who's running in a crowded primary to replace Rep. Jeb Hensarling. The ad features Orville C. Rodgers, a World War II pilot, saying that Sheets "answered the call" for "President Bush's troop surge." Watch the ad here.

HOT DOC - DNC memo focuses on "critical" state legislature races: Democratic National Committee Political Director Amanda Brown Lierman writes in a new memo that Democrats need to stay focused on flipping state legislative seats in 2018, and highlights the DNC's efforts to do so. "In Tom Perez's first year as chair, Democrats have flipped 37 legislative seats from red to blue. Some of these 37 seats are in deep red areas that Trump won by double digits," Lierman writes. "This isn't just a trend - it's a movement. We have partnered with the state parties, committees, national and local partners, and the community leaders and activists." Full memo here.

ETHICS REVIEW - "Iowa Congressman Failed to Disclose Internet Company," by The Associated Press' Ryan J. Foley: "A congressman from Iowa violated House ethics rules by failing to disclose a new company that he owns, a mysterious outfit that uses one of his federal staffers in a false testimonial for its services, an Associated Press review shows. Rep. Rod Blum was one of two directors of the Tin Moon Corp. when the internet marketing company was incorporated in May 2016, as the Republican was serving his first term, a business filing shows. Among other services, Tin Moon promises to help companies cited for federal food and drug safety violations bury their Food and Drug Administration
warning letters below positive internet search results." Full story.

SURE, WHY NOT? - "'Jeopardy!' host Alex Trebek to moderate a Pa. gubernatorial debate," by the Philadelphia Inquirer's Rob Tornoe: "Trebek, a native Canadian who became a naturalized U.S. citizen in 1998, will moderate a 45-minute debate among Pennsylvania's 2018 gubernatorial candidates as part of the Pennsylvania Chamber of Business and Industry's annual dinner Oct. 1 at the Hershey Lodge in Dauphin County. Invitations will be extended to all the major candidates, including Democratic incumbent Tom Wolf and the winner of a Republican primary." Full story.

LIKE A POLLING STONE - Baker leads wide-open Maryland Democratic gubernatorial primary; Cardin crushes Manning: Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker has a lead in a wide-open Maryland Democratic gubernatorial primary, earning 19 percent of the vote from likely Democratic voters in a new Goucher College poll. Another 12 percent say they would back Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamentz and 10 percent say they'd support former NAACP President Ben Jealous, with a whopping 47 percent saying they don't know who they'd support. The state's Senate primary, meanwhile, appears to be a dud. Sen. Ben Cardin has a 61 percent to 17 percent lead over Chelsea Manning. Manning's favorability
among Democratic voters is underwater: 19 percent have a favorable opinion of her, while 37 percent have an unfavorable opinion. The poll of 409 likely Democratic primary voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. Full results here.

- PPP poll finds Yoder trailing liberal opponent: The Progressive Change Campaign Committee released a poll this morning, conducted by left-leaning Public Policy Polling, that finds Democrat Brent Welder with a 49 percent to 42 percent lead over opponent Rep. Kevin Yoder in Kansas' 3rd District, with 9 percent of voters undecided. Forty-one percent of voters said they approve of Trump's job performance. PPP polled 315 likely voters on Feb. 14 and 15, and the margin of error was plus or minus 5.5 percentage points. The PCCC and Our Revolution are both endorsing Welder, who is a former Bernie Sanders delegate and labor attorney. Results here.

A BLUE TEXAS? - "Blue Texas? It's Way More Complicated Than You Think," by The Weekly Standard's David Byler: "[T]he changes in Texas look a little bit less like the result of inevitable changes and more like the result of specific choices. The growing Hispanic population is a potential long-term problem for Republicans in the Lone Star State, but the GOP created its own problems with upscale whites (and Texas Latinos, depending on your read of the data) by nominating Trump. And that's the key point here - that the chances in Texas turning blue aren't just the product of demographic change. They're the product of conscious choices made by both parties - and both parties can alter the
trajectory of the state through their choices." Full story.

STAFFING UP - DLCC adds personnel: The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee announced new staffers on Wednesday, including Ellie Collinson, who will serve as the new chief operating officer. Rebecca Pearcey will serve as the national independent expenditure director.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I told him before we came out here tonight that he had guts coming here - when, in fact, there is no representative of the state of Florida. Our governor did not come here, Gov. Scott. But Marco did." - Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), commending Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) for attending Wednesday night's CNN town hall featuring survivors of last week's school shooting - and swiping at his likely November opponent, Gov. Rick Scott, who declined CNN's invitation to participate. Watch the video.

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