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Today's Playbook Power Briefing presented by Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses

By ANNA PALMER (anna@politico.com; @apalmerdc), JAKE SHERMAN (sherman@politico.com; @JakeSherman), DANIEL LIPPMAN (daniel@politico.com; @dlippman) and ZACH MONTELLARO (zmontellaro@politico.com; @ZachMontellaro)


Good Thursday afternoon. THE MOOD IN THE CAPITOL has gotten appreciably better -- for the time being.

-- HOUSE MINORITY LEADER NANCY PELOSI told reporters that she would vote against the budget deal, but did not say she would urge Democrats to vote against it. She plans to merely tell her colleagues why she's against it. (By the way, she said it was a good bill that she worked on, but it was coming up under unfortunate circumstances.) This will allow Democrats who want to vote for the bill the leeway to do so. PELOSI said she wanted Ryan to agree to put every immigration bill on the floor -- a process called "queen of the hill," in which the highest vote getter is the one that passes.

-- DEMOCRATS ARE URGING A NO VOTE ... THE WHIP EMAIL from HOUSE MINORITY WHIP STENY HOYER said "DEMOCRATS ARE URGED TO VOTE NO ON THE BUDGET DEAL." The whip email says the bill "Fails to provide a path forward on protecting DREAMers." Many Democrats privately tell us they want to vote yes on this bill and have, in their mind, separated the funding fight from DACA.

-- SPEAKER PAUL RYAN did not guarantee anything on immigration, but said: "We will bring a DACA solution to the floor. ... I cant speak to what our rule is going to look like. I can say that we're going to bring a DACA solution to the floor because we want to solve this problem."

BY THE WAY ... RYAN said he doesn't "know If i could've hacked that for eight hours" -- referring to Pelosi's marathon speech Wednesday. He said he would've had to use the restroom in that time period.

THE FIRST VOTE SERIES IN THE HOUSE was calm, and the body language was not tense.

IT'S UNCLEAR what time this could get a vote today. We hear mid afternoon in the Senate, but SEN. RAND PAUL (R-KY) is threatening to pump the breaks...

-- WSJ'S KRISTINA PETERSON (@kristinapet): "Rand Paul says he will agree to speed up a Senate vote if leaders agree to vote on his amendment to abide by spending caps. 'But they're resisting now, so we'll see what happens...'"

OF COURSE, this vote is fluid. Moods -- and dynamics -- shift quickly.

BY THE WAY: THE DOW IS DOWN more than 600 points today.

DON'T CALL IT A WAVE, BUT... COOK POLITICAL REPORT released its latest ratings for House races, and it shifted 21 RACES towards Democrats. Three races -- CA-10, MN-03 and NY-22 moved from "lean R" to tossup and three open seats -- NH-01, NJ-02 and PA-07 moved from toss-up to "lean D". The breakdown from David Wasserman http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b3002d83c195e594ca1023344520e3bf638c9ae809420fdcc84dd98f7999e30464a20626a2af5401a13150b9d375f02

-- "Democrats expand battleground, target 101 GOP seats," by NBC News' Alex Seitz-Wald: "At House Democrats' annual conference Thursday, Rep. Ben Ray Lujan, D-N.M., the chairman of the [DCCC], is expected to tell colleagues the committee is expanding the battleground to include 101 Republicans - the largest in a decade, a Democratic source familiar with the matter told NBC News.

"The seven new targets push Democrats even deeper into Republican territory in South Carolina, Wisconsin and Texas. And they include the Ohio seat held by the man charged with defending the GOP's majority, [NRCC] Chair Rep. Steve Stivers, R-Ohio. (Republicans are also targeting Lujan.)" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b3002d83c195e594601d3012f35be2a85ac7b8d4e4fe676151c3a15937cb8297f19af31f930f0f9133fe6e4a3140db9

YOU DON'T SAY -- "George W. Bush: 'Clear evidence Russians meddled' in election," by USA Today's Kim Hjelmgaard: "Former President George W. Bush appeared to take aim at President Trump on Thursday when he said at an economic summit in the Middle East that there was 'pretty clear evidence that the Russians meddled' in the 2016 U.S. president election. ...

"While Bush did not directly name Trump, his comments did appear to target him. Trump has consistently disputed allegations of Russian interference in the election or that members of his campaign team in any way 'colluded' with Moscow. 'Whether [Russia] affected the outcome is another question,' Bush added." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b3002d83c195e5982239dc7d144fd53a9b26890b45b70f3a12c792ad25d46fcb674e4a4c05b57272634de70859ec4db

****** A message from Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses: Small businesses are the cornerstones of communities across America. This month, Goldman Sachs is continuing its commitment to small business by hosting the 10,000 Small Businesses Summit in Washington, DC-connecting business owners with policy makers. Learn how we can #MakeSmallBig on February 13 and 14: GS.com/10KSBSummit ******

BUILD THE WALL? -- "House Intel Republicans plan to wall off their aides from Democratic staffers," by CBS News' Olivia Victoria Gazis: "In a sign of increasing partisan hostilities, Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee plan to construct a wall - a physical partition - separating Republican and Democratic staff members in the committee's secure spaces, according to multiple committee sources. It's expected to happen this spring. For now, some Republican committee members deny knowing anything about it, while strongly suggesting the division is the brainchild of the committee's chairman, Devin Nunes, R-California." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b3002d83c195e595a5bee8ded08b0c5f96d0342f580ad286e6ac24849543daa4a2641e8b96f4f6c194cde11e40dbc4c

MCCONNELL'S BIG WIN -- "Inside Trump's Plan to Dramatically Reshape U.S. Courts," by TIME's Tessa Berenson: Mitch "McConnell knew Trump had a chance to change the ideological makeup of the federal court system in a way not seen since the Reagan era, but only if McConnell and [White House counsel Don] McGahn could get him to tighten up a disorderly political operation, and fast. 'I said, Don, we've got an opportunity here to have a huge long-term impact on the country,' McConnell recalls, sitting in a cushioned chair in his Capitol office one day last month. He made McGahn a promise to move qualified judges through the Senate confirmation process as quickly as the White House could send
them. ...'We're filling up the courts with really talented people who understand and read the Constitution for what it says,' Trump tells TIME. 'It's already having a tremendous impact. These appointments are going to be one of the most important things, if not the most important thing, we do.' ...

"This plan to change America for generations isn't happening by chance. Trump's team has created a streamlined process in the White House and Senate that maximizes the opportunity he's been handed. They've razed congressional customs and carefully nurtured the relationship between the President and conservative legal scholars. In the process, McConnell, McGahn and a constellation of advisers have unclogged the judicial pipeline, pushing nominees onto the courts faster than ever before. The result, McConnell believes, could be Trump's most consequential bequest. 'The tax bill was hugely important, but as soon as the government changes, believe me, they'll revisit the tax code,' McConnell
tells TIME. 'The impact that this Administration could have on the courts is the most long-lasting impact we could have.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b3002d83c195e59949fa5a5a363db57316a86bf5f656dbccdf4e517dc5fea0bc25b44f19b45587860108ee9c1aebc8b

HMM... -- "GOP leans on rainmaker who courts controversy on two continents," by Ben Wieder and Peter Stone in McClatchy: "As a top fundraiser for the Republican Party under President Donald Trump, investment manager Elliott Broidy has had a seat at some of the most exclusive GOP money bashes at the Trump International Hotel and Mar-a-Lago. It might seem like a pinnacle moment in the career of a big-money harvester. Broidy's success, however, hasn't followed a typical trajectory: In 2012, he was convicted in a New York 'pay to play' pension scandal that cost him millions and forced him to the political sidelines. ... A McClatchy investigation shows that Broidy, who has re-emerged as a
valuable deputy RNC finance chair, is linked to controversial figures, at home and abroad, with their own recent legal troubles.

"A small defense contractor Broidy owns opened an office last year in Romania just months after Broidy helped introduce a top Romanian politician facing corruption charges there to Trump. At home, the firm has seen a big spike in business since Trump took office - and after it lobbied the office of Vice President Mike Pence. And a few years before Trump took office, Broidy, a longtime board member of the hawkish Republican Jewish Coalition, headed up a national security-focused nonprofit group set up - and partially funded - by two movie producers who have been charged by federal prosecutors with defrauding investors of millions. Despite a showy debut, the nonprofit soon vanished from the
scene, never filing required tax forms." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b3002d83c195e5948f4dafcc693941ffdace36800f04937f9bdfd2e28b1678e88b8646b7ac55c7bc295af0ead08a7ca

AFTERNOON READ -- "Here's what war with North Korea would look like," by Vox's Yochi Dreazen: "There is a genuine risk of a war on the Korean Peninsula that would involve the use of chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons. ... [M]ost of the people I spoke to said they believed Kim would use nuclear weapons against South Korea in the initial stages of the fighting -- not just as a desperate last resort. ... The nonpartisan Congressional Research Service estimates that Kim could hammer the South Korean capital with an astonishing 10,000 rockets per minute -- and that such a barrage could kill more 300,000 South Koreans in the opening days of the conflict. That's all without using a single
nuclear, chemical, or biological weapon. ... A new war on the Korean Peninsula wouldn't be as bad as you think. It would be much, much worse. ...

"The consensus view is that Kim would try to level the playing field by using his vast arsenal of chemical weapons, which is believed to be the biggest and most technologically advanced in the world. ... Kim has the ability to quickly blanket the densely packed city with huge amounts of nerve agents. The human toll would be staggeringly high: The military historian Reid Kirby estimated last June that a sustained sarin attack could kill up to 2.5 million people in Seoul alone, while injuring nearly 7 million more. Men, women, and children would very literally choke to death in the streets of one of the world's wealthiest and most vibrant cities. It would be mass murder on a scale rarely seen
in human history." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b3002d83c195e59aa5ef390d83a37acbd3734fa69fad61d13226e9f9cf4ea2adb4662290f5e8bc631ce19c897e3647e

OH BOY ... -- OMAROSA on a preview of tonight's episode of "Celebrity Big Brother": "I was haunted by tweets every single day. Like what is he going to tweet next?" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b3002d83c195e593f15e4b6194d0cb3ab222d12a8beaf39e764889c6484e6b7d75fab2e8e879849b1a58031f6000d5b

VALLEY TALK -- "The House That Spied on Me," by Gizmodo's Kashmir Hill and Surya Mattu: "In December, I converted my one-bedroom apartment in San Francisco into a 'smart home.' I connected as many of my appliances and belongings as I could to the internet ... After a week of living in my newly smartened home, I could tell why the Beast was always in such a bad mood: The animate objects in my home were becoming a constant source of annoyance. I thought this was going to be a story about privacy, but instead I was finding out how infuriating it is to live in a janky smart home." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b3002d83c195e59f0f466a2d94be43a4e466be63a6a601e5dc423a8f94ec6af49b4f66a65d00bfb6d9618553cdd7247

MEDIAWATCH -- "New York Times Co. Subscription Revenue Surpassed $1 Billion in 2017," by NYT's Sydney Ember: "The company said on Thursday that it added 157,000 net digital-only subscriptions in the fourth quarter of the year, pushing overall subscription revenue to more than $1 billion for the year. Subscription revenue now accounts for 60 percent of the company's total revenue. Subscription revenue in the quarter rose 19 percent. Total revenue for the year increased 8 percent, to $1.7 billion, and 10 percent in the fourth quarter, to $484 million." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b3002d83c195e593c7149c9d5c0daed0a05b9e922867f0218ec7ad3828259fa20255a292179b588d3f4483ac8358be9

-- TONY ROMM is joining The Washington Post as a tech policy reporter. He is currently a senior editor at Recode and is a POLITICO alum.

SPOTTED: Preet Bharara at the bar of Gaslight in Shaw on Tuesday night

SPOTTED at a dinner hosted by Meridian and Japanese Ambassador Kenichiro Sasae on the role of sports diplomacy: Cal Ripken, Jr., Ambassador Jim Cain (the former president of the Carolina Hurricanes), Ambassador Mark Gilbert (a former White Sox player), Michael Ledecky, former NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue, Jimmy Lynn, Stuart and Gwen Holliday, Brad Knox, Steve Morrisey and Sasha Johnson, Tom Monahan, Ed Cohen, Josh Wachs, Jodie McLean, Adam Bernstein, Alan Bubes and Nancy Taylor Bubes.

TRANSITIONS -- Nicole Brener-Schmitz is joining NARAL as political director. She previously worked for former Rep. Brian Baird (D-Fla.) and with the Teamsters.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD - Poppy Harlow, co-anchor of "CNN Newsroom" from 9 to 11 a.m. on weekdays, and Sinisa Babcic, a senior manager at EY, post on Instagram: "Welcome to the world baby Luca! We love all 9lbs, 22 inches of you to pieces!" Instapic http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b3002d83c195e59656e0fdad70337400ba59fa6e259b28cccc412d9ed4bdff1689da9d9098d6326e8ff2910a5795362 ... Pic on Twitter http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b3002d83c195e5979f78181f530aa32ef2b6179cf6248f7f5b574774a4795d579439d489d52e9b15caf3abbc8412c58

-- Joe Ahearn, finance director of America First Policies/America First Action, and Megan Ahearn, who works for the digital agency Huge Inc., yesterday welcomed James Joseph Ahearn. "James was born ... at 8:16 a.m. His stats: 7 pounds, 9 ounces; 20.5 inches. Baby James, Mom, Dad, and Big Sister Rose are doing great!"

--Anderson Heiman, senior adviser for technology for Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and the Senate Finance Committee, and Aileen Gleizer, associate director for emergency health programs and operations at Save the Children, recently welcomed Mila Lee Heiman. "She weighed in at 9 lbs 10 oz, 21.75 inches. Mila was the Russian nickname for Aileen's grandpa, and Lee is Andy's father's first name and mother's middle name." Pics http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b3002d83c195e59058602a78258937e7edfd1068372f5fa5e108433740e4482cc524342940c23b031f84f1b5d8c4280 ... http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b3002d83c195e599d483f94ce36a738af11db7d6315c8a8fb515e5e68c83b2e88c72f0f8bc49650594f2711c286e8b7

****** A message from Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses: There are more than 29 million small businesses in the United States. All of their voices matter, but all of their voices are not always heard. That is why Goldman Sachs is hosting the 10,000 Small Businesses Summit in Washington, DC-one of the largest gatherings of small business owners on job creation. Learn how we can #MakeSmallBig on February 13 and 14: GS.com/10KSBSummit ******

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