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By Kevin Robillard | 02/27/2018 10:00 AM EDT


With Elena Schneider, Zach Montellaro and Daniel Strauss

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

MISSISSIPPI MAYHEM - "GOP showdown: McDaniel expected to challenge Wicker for Senate," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "Mississippi Republican Chris McDaniel is expected to announce later this week that he will wage a 2018 primary challenge against GOP Sen. Roger Wicker, according to two people briefed on his plans. McDaniel, a conservative state senator who waged an unsuccessful 2014 primary bid against longtime GOP Sen. Thad Cochran, has scheduled a rally on Wednesday afternoon in Ellisville, Miss. ...

"He has recruited two senior Republican strategists, Rick Tyler and John Yob, to assist him. Tyler most recently worked as a spokesman for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz's 2016 presidential campaign, and was a staffer on former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's 2012 White House bid. Yob was a top aide on Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul's 2016 presidential campaign. The expected announcement comes ahead of the state's March 1 filing deadline. McDaniel's plans have been the subject of speculation for months. With the 80-year-old Cochran's health in decline, many believed that McDaniel would run for the seat should it become vacant." Full story.

- What McDaniel said: "I think that most conservatives in this country feel that our party, the Republican Party, has lost its foundation," he said on Facebook Live on Monday night. "I'm going to be holding an event. And I think you can read between the lines as to why I would be holding an event."

- Wicker's campaign has been preparing for this for a long time: McDaniel hasn't been shy about discussing a potential bid, and blown through several self-imposed deadlines for making a decision. That's given Wicker's campaign plenty of time to prepare. On Monday, the Wicker campaign released two new television ads. The first ad features state Sen. David Parker, who backed McDaniel in '14, endorsing Wicker. The spot is airing in DeSoto County. The second spot is airing in the Laurel/Hattiesburg media market and focuses on Wicker's service in the Air Force and his work to support veterans and the military.

-A quick financial reminder: Wicker had $4.1 million in the bank as of the end of 2017. Remember Mississippi, a super PAC supporting McDaniel, had $850,000 in its campaign account, and has donations from two of the GOP megadonors of the moment: Richard Uihlein and Bob Mercer.

-Establishment Republicans see McDaniel as more Mo Brooks, less Roy Moore: Senate Leadership Fund, the McConnell-aligned super PAC, has already signaled its likely playbook against McDaniel, and it has a lot of similarities to what the group used against Rep. Mo Brooks in the first round of Alabama's GOP Senate primary. In November, it highlighted a Yall Politics report rounding up some of McDaniel's anti-Trump statements from the presidential primaries, including calling Trump supporters "delusional, detached from reason and sanity" and declaring the president was "not a Constitutional conservative." Highlighting these anti-Trump comments dealt major damage to Brooks, and SLF is hoping
they'll have a similar impact on McDaniel.

- President Donald Trump has reportedly urged Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant to appoint himself to Cochran's Senate seat if it were to become vacant, according to The New York Times. But Bryant, in an interview with POLITICO over the weekend, said Cochran is still serving as a U.S. senator. "I've not talked to him personally about any time frame that he may have - if he has one for retirement. As I remind people, when I talk to the senator about it then we'll start really moving towards finding a replacement if necessary," Bryant said.

THE PATH TO AN UPSET - "How Republicans Can Win the Midterms," by Charlie Mahtesian in POLITICO Magazine: "As dire as the situation seems for Republicans, the elements of a skin-of-their-teeth escape are coming into focus. Beginning in late December, both the generic congressional ballot and Trump's approval ratings began ticking upward. These numbers, apparent across almost all polls, were enough to curtail growing talk of a Democratic wave election on the horizon. Even Priorities USA, the biggest Democratic super PAC, took notice. ...

"The other essential ingredient of the Republican survival plan is largely out of the party's hands: Democratic self-immolation. Naturally, it's already underway. Trump has re-engineered the laws of candidate supply and demand, leading to Democratic primaries that are teeming with viable prospects. Yet that's also raising the odds of bruising, cash-draining contests before the general election, which could force some candidates to adopt positions that will haunt them in a general election." Full story.

SUNSHINE SPOTLIGHT - "Rick Scott gets gun control makeover," by POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "Florida Gov. Rick Scott broke with President Trump over the question of gun-toting educators. He's ticked off the NRA. Suddenly, he's in good graces with the state teacher's union, his longtime adversary. Scott's reaction to the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School mass shooting is making Democrats wonder if they're witnessing a broader general-election makeover - one that could make him a far more potent challenger to Sen. Bill Nelson. ... In his broad, $500 million proposal in reaction to the shooting, Scott - a governor who once signed every NRA gun bill he could - advocated for a gun-control
measure that particularly stoked the powerful lobby's ire: a requirement that buyers of rifles and shotguns be 21 years old. It's a requirement that could have arguably stopped the Valentine's Day shooter, Nikolas Cruz, who was 18 when he bought his AR-15." Full story.

ON THE ROAD - "Pence to visit Michigan in support of GOP House candidates," by POLITICO's Daniel Strauss and Matthew Nussbaum: "Vice President Mike Pence will travel to Michigan on Friday in a visit that combines official duties and political fundraising, according to multiple Republican officials familiar with the trip. ... Pence will first hold an official event with America First Policies - a public policy nonprofit that is backed by President Donald Trump and is designed to boost his agenda - to tout recent tax cut legislation, and will then speak at an event hosted by the Great America Committee PAC to support GOP House candidates." Full story.

FIRST IN SCORE - EMILY's List backs Lisa Brown in WA-05: EMILY's List is endorsing Democrat Lisa Brown in her bid to take on Republican Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers. Brown was named to the DCCC's "Red to Blue" list earlier this month.

COUNTERPUNCH - Freedom Partners aims to rebut Not One Penny memo: Freedom Partners Chamber of Commerce is out with a memo aiming to rebut Democratic talking points from Not One Penny's memo on how to message against the tax law. "The memo's recommendation is to embrace class warfare, stir animosity, and leverage it for political gain," the group writes. "To do so, they plan to distort the facts, mislead taxpayers, and root against America's economy." Full memo here.

DYNASTY WATCH - "Levi Sanders makes it official, he's a candidate for NH's 1st District House seat," by WMUR's John DiStaso: "An eighth Democrat has entered the race for New Hampshire's 1st District House seat, and he has a familiar last name: Levi Sanders, the son of former presidential candidate and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. ... Sanders is proposing a 'Medicare for all health care system,' tuition-free college, a higher minimum wage, equal pay for women and 'sensible gun legislation.' ... Sanders, 48, enters the race in the unique - although not unprecedented - position of residing out of the district he hopes to serve in Washington. He is a resident of Claremont, which is in the 2nd
District, where he is a registered Democrat, but he's running for the 1st District seat now held by U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, who is not seeking re-election." Full story.

Days until the 2018 election: 253

Upcoming election dates - Arizona 8th District special primary: Feb. 27. Texas primaries: March 6. Pennsylvania 18th District special election: March 13. Illinois primaries: March 20.

Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, dstrauss@politico.com and mseverns@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns.

ON THE AIR - "Baldwin launches first ads in Wisconsin," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) is airing the first two television ads of her reelection bid: two positive spots focused on prescription drug prices and 'Buy America' policies. The two 30-second ads will air in the Green Bay and Milwaukee markets, along with digital spots. The first ad opens with a series of news reports on Baldwin's work with Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) on legislation requiring drug companies to reveal more about price hikes, before cutting to Baldwin speaking direct to camera: 'I'm Tammy Baldwin, and I'm fighting against drug companies that jack up their prices. That's why I approve
this message.'

"The second ad features Roddy Rice, a retired foundry worker. 'Tammy Baldwin knows that today, too many projects use foreign iron and steel,' he says in the ad. The ad then cuts to Baldwin discussing her proposal to require government projects to use American-made iron and steel. 'It's time America buys what Wisconsin makes,' she says direct to camera." The ads are backed by a $100,000 buy on broadcast and cable, according to Advertising Analytics. Watch the ads here and here.

POLLING DATA - End Citizens United releases poll with Crow leading Coffman: End Citizens United released a poll that shows Democrat Jason Crow leading Republican Rep. Mike Coffman by 5 points, 44 percent to 39 percent. Another 5 percent are undecided. Trump's favorability hovers at 39 percent, while 57 percent disapprove of the president. Public Policy Polling conducted a robopoll with 751 likely voters from Feb. 15 to Feb. 18. Check out the full polling memo here.

2020 WATCH - "Elizabeth Warren's stealth campaign to shed 'Pocahontas,'" by POLITICO's Gabriel DeBenedetti: "Elizabeth Warren's surprise address this month on her disputed Native American heritage was just one piece of a concerted campaign by the Massachusetts senator and potential 2020 hopeful to put the controversy behind her. ... She has also signed on to at least six bills directly related to Native American policy. It's clearly an organized effort: Four of those co-sponsorships came within two days of her speech, and Warren endorsed two bills around that time even though they'd been introduced months earlier. ...

"Now, Warren and her backers are hoping to move beyond the argument entirely and spin it into a positive. The aim is to neutralize what's seen as an Achilles' heel for a potential national bid, turning wary activists into allies. 'Her speech was, in many ways, long overdue. It was a great opportunity for her to tell her story,' said Rion Ramirez, chairman of the Democratic National Committee's Native American Council, who sat down with Warren the day before she addressed the NCAI. 'Unfortunately, her president tries to define what her story is. And it's not his story to tell.'" Full story.

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REDISTRICTING WATCH - "Holder group sues Walker for not holding elections in Wisconsin," by POLITICO's Edward-Isaac Dovere: "The National Redistricting Foundation sued Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin on Monday for not holding special elections for two state Legislature seats. The seats, left vacant by an assemblyman and state senator who resigned in December to take jobs in Walker's Republican administration, will otherwise remain open until January 2019, following the regularly scheduled elections for the seats in November. Eric Holder, who was President Barack Obama's first attorney general and is now chairman of the foundation's parent organization, the National Democratic Redistricting
Committee, said that although most of his focus right now was on fundraising and campaigning around redistricting, he felt drawn to this lawsuit out of good-government concerns, as well as talk about Democratic efforts to win the seats if and when there are races." Full story.

GREITENS WATCH - "Missouri House launches impeachment probe of Greitens," by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Kurt Erickson: "House Speaker Todd Richardson named seven members to a special committee that will lead the unprecedented probe of a Missouri chief executive. The hastily formed panel will be chaired by Rep. Jay Barnes, R-Jefferson City. ... The action by Richardson came just days after Greitens was charged by St. Louis Circuit Attorney Kim Gardner with felony invasion-of-privacy, stemming from an extramarital affair in 2015 to which he has admitted." Full story.

- "Email shows how Greitens team began using charity donor list to ask for money," by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Jack Suntrup: "An employee of Eric Greitens emailed a donor list from The Mission Continues charity to two of Greitens' campaign staffers in early 2015, according to a copy of the email obtained by the Post-Dispatch. The donor list in question has been the subject of off-and-on attention since October 2016, when the Associated Press first reported that the Greitens campaign may have possessed the list. The AP reported then that the charity sharing the list could have violated laws that bar 501(c)(3) organizations from taking sides in elections. Greitens, in 2016, initially
denied using the list, but in a later settlement with the Missouri Ethics Commission, he admitted that the campaign did." Full story.

STAFFING UP - For Our Future adds communications director: For Our Future, a Democratic super PAC, has hired Lizzy Price as communications director. Price most recently served as communications director for gubernatorial campaigns at American Bridge.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I just remember all the headlines the next morning: 'Handel beats Ossoff after link to Pelosi.'" - Law student Ryan Khojasteh, explaining to the Sacramento Bee why he's challenging House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi in the Democratic primary.

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