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By James Hohmann (
mailto:jhohmann@politico.com
jhohmann@politico.com ; Twitter: @jameshohmann)

"PREPARED TO TAKE THE HEAT" - HOW SERIOUS IS GINGRICH'S IMMIGRATION PROBLEM?Newt Gingrich defended his past support for Simpson-Mazzoli, the immigration law which included an amnesty provision, during last night's foreign policy debate. "I'm prepared to take the heat for saying let's be humane about enforcing the law," he said. This prompted immediate on-stage rebukes from Bachmann and Romney.
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A MAJOR DISCONNECT IN COVERAGE - We notice a striking difference between how key players in the early states talked about the immigration portion of the debate and how those who make their living inside the Beltway covered it. DC-based folks tended to argue that immigration will not be that damaging because Gingrich did not use the word "heartless" to describe those who disagree with him, in contrast to the tone-deaf Perry. Iowa operatives think Gingrich made his path to the nomination significantly harder.

MEDIA ELITES CALL GINGRICH A WINNER - DOWNPLAY DANGER:
ABC's Amy Walter named Gingrich the only Republican candidate who won:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c5928b9bbcae0f2a361117cb71a9625ac1470c96ba61e614eb86efb4ba8f11e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c5928b9bbcae0f2a361117cb71a9625ac1470c96ba61e614eb86efb4ba8f11e .The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza named him as one of three candidate winners:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c5928b9bbcae0f270acf572c8821bfe5b20a277869a4827c3bd766d3db7c7da
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c5928b9bbcae0f270acf572c8821bfe5b20a277869a4827c3bd766d3db7c7da .The New York Times' Nate Silver gave Gingrich an A- [for context: Huntsman A-, Romney B+, Paul B+, Bachmann B+, Santorum B, Perry B, Cain C].CBS News put Gingrich at the TOP of their list of winners. Hedging that immigration "could backfire," the analysis said that "overall Gingrich showed that he has been thinking about these issues for decades."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c5928b9bbcae0f2a767df8fbee5f2233c37cd4fa8c5da5b21a1eaa1ed3a300e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c5928b9bbcae0f2a767df8fbee5f2233c37cd4fa8c5da5b21a1eaa1ed3a300e NBC's David Gregory,the moderator of Meet the Press, tweeted that he "Thought Gingrich helped himself tonight."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c5928b9bbcae0f277eebc9d478702459b120f4f312a3b29f44e90d0f30c248b
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c5928b9bbcae0f277eebc9d478702459b120f4f312a3b29f44e90d0f30c248b Dan Balz:"After the debate, Gingrich defended himself against possible criticism, saying he was not advocating an amnesty program...In contrast to some previous debates, Tuesday's forum is likely to have only a limited impact on the overall race."
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EARLY STATE EXPERTS SAY IT COULD BE DEVASTATING:

Craig Robinson, a former Iowa Republican Party political director who runsTheIowaRepublican.com, named Gingrich THE singular loser:"Gingrich's stubbornness on this issue will make winning the Iowa caucuses much more difficult. The only thing that will be remembered in this debate is Gingrich's pro-amnesty position."
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Tim Albrecht,communications director for Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R), tweeted: "Newt did himself significant harm tonight on immigration among caucus and primary voters...GOP-led Iowa House passed Dream Act 99-0 and in next election were wiped out up and down. Newt mis-stepped tonight."

TheDes Moines Register's political columnist, Kathie Obradovich, believes Gingrich's approach is substantively "the most humane" and realistic but she thinks that Gingrich "lost much of the ground he gained" through the rest of the night when he advocated for amnesty. "This debate, like most of the others, has been a competition between Romney and everybody else," she concludes. "Nobody has really managed to lay a glove on him in the past few debates, and this one was no exception. Gingrich has been at the top of the 'everybody else' heap lately, but his immigration position may increase the pitch of an already-slippery slope."
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PLAYING IT FORWARD -

AIR COVER FROM THE DNC:The Democratic National Committee turned a 75-second web video overnight offering support for the former House Speaker, juxtaposing footage from the debate of Gingrich against Romney (who they label as "extreme"). The text on screen as classical music plays: "On immigration, who is being honest about the challenges we face? If Mitt Romney can't level with Americans, how can he lead America?" This really could be mistaken for a Newt campaign ad in a general election:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c5928b9bbcae0f2749b03fee96bbe8634932d439235d0615926a5ed5669fb0e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c5928b9bbcae0f2749b03fee96bbe8634932d439235d0615926a5ed5669fb0e .

BOSTON ATTACKS:The Washington Examiner's Philip Klein mixed it up with Romney adviser Eric Fehrnstrom in the spin room over what the former Massachusetts governor would do to those here illegally: "Mitt Romney is against amnesty, and Newt Gingrich made it very clear he was for amnesty,"Erictold him. "Finally, after I asked the question for a seventh time, Fehrnstrom responded by emphasizing employer enforcement as a way to get illegal immigrants to leave through attrition."
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BANK SHOT VS. RUN OUT THE CLOCK:"Gingrich, a political gambler his whole life, is banking on unorthodox stands on immigration, Social Security and other issues to propel him past Mitt Romney," the AP's Charles Babington writes in his analysis of the debate. "Romney, meanwhile, is sticking with his run-out-the-clock strategy."
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IS GINGRICH PLAYING FOR LATINO REPUBLICANS?The Las Vegas Sun thinks he might have been: "...more likely, Gingrich is taking a bet that his immigration position will help speak to an oft-ignored voting bloc in the GOP - one that if he can reach, may help put him over the top," Karoun Demirjian speculates. "Of the first six state contests, three - Florida, Nevada, and Colorado - boast higher-than average concentrations of Latino voters, and at least 30 percent of the community registers or regularly votes Republican."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c5928b9bbcae0f29707457f69a5440d6b9f8418e3864dff9f3d3b0cbef4679e
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TWO CONSERVATIVE TAKES -

NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL:Rich Lowry, editor of National Review, headlined his blog post "Newt wins-for now."His take:"He's right about the human costs of mass deportation but he's going to spend a lot of time talking about immigration over the next 48 hours. We'll get a test of whether it was Perry's maladroit handling of the issue that cost of him or simply the fact that he departed from the restrictionist line; I suspect Gingrich is going to have a very hard time defending the idea of creating a permanent class of second-class citizens, which is what the 'red card' proposal sounds like."
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PERHAPS GINGRICH IS NOT AS CONSERVATIVE AS WE THINK:Jonah Goldberg argues in his column, which matters because it appears on the Union Leader's home page, that "it's not altogether clear that Gingrich is that far to the right of Romney." The conservative pundit continues: "Gingrich's record - political and rhetorical - is so vast and diverse, there's plenty of evidence to build almost any narrative you want. He's said some of the most bombastic right-wing things of any mainstream Republican in our lifetimes, but he's also reached across the aisle more frequently than far-more-liberal Republicans would ever dare."
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POLLING -

REPUBLICANS ARE "NOT MONOLOTHIC":Nate Silver, of the NYT's 538 blog, cites surveys of Republican voters and concludes: "Gingrich's position - which would allow some illegal immigrants to stay but not grant them citizenship - seems to come as close as anything to a MIDDLE GROUND...Republican views on immigration are not monolithic and should not be portrayed as such."
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IN IOWA:Bloomberg News, which led their main debate story with Gingrich talking about immigration, notes that a poll they released last week found "42 percent of likely Iowa caucus attendees say the Perry-signed Texas law allowing children of illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition rates would rule out their support."
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Other debate TAKEAWAYS from Maggie Haberman:

"[ROMNEY] did fine, and he made no real miscues...But he also had no breakout moments at a debate that was about an issue where he is supposed to be far ahead of the field."

. "HUNTSMAN, whose foreign policy chops are supposed to be his calling card in this race, also by and large performed strongly."

. "The expectations were not nearly as high forPERRY, and by those low standards he fared better than he has in the past. But the Texas governor failed to stand out or appear as if he could match policy familiarity with either Gingrich or Romney, who are really his main targets now."
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TIME OF POSSESSION - GINGRICH TALKED THE MOST:Newt Gingrich spoke 12 minutes and 8 seconds, or 16.1 percent of the total speaking time, according to an analysis by Smart Politics, a University of Minnesota project. Romney was a close second, with 11:32. The others: Perry, 10:55; Paul, 9:59; Bachmann, 9:25; Santorum, 7:59; Huntsman, 7:43; and Cain, 5:37." Eric Ostermeier, who did the tabulations, notes that Gingrich got the LEAST amount of time at last month's Las Vegas debate.
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If you missed the debate, the Associated Press rounds up the key moments:Romney pledging to visit Israel, Perry suggesting Defense Secretary Leon Panetta should resign to protest defense cuts, Gingrich dueling with Paul on the Patriot Act and which issue candidates think is not getting enough attention (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c5928b9bbcae0f2f6e78e438f9967e79f85db1a96fde0cff9ce78affaec1f5a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c5928b9bbcae0f2f6e78e438f9967e79f85db1a96fde0cff9ce78affaec1f5a ). The LA Times emphasizes the contrasts on how to deal with Iran and Pakistan:
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THE NEXT DEBATE is not until December 10.

** As Cain gets a religious liaison, Romney faces fire for his first ad and Jimmy Fallon apologizes, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

THUNE ENDORSES ROMNEY - COULD HELP IN NORTHWEST IOWA:The Des Moines Register scooped overnight that South Dakota Sen. JohnThune, who decided himself not to run for president, will endorse Romney at a campaign event in Des Moines this morning. JeffZeleny, who used to be the Register's political reporter, explains why it could matter in the New York Times: "While it remains an open question whether Mr. Thune's endorsement will carry significant weight in Iowa, the northwest corner of the state that borders South Dakota is a critical area for Republican presidential candidates and Mr. Thune has strong name recognition there. Four years ago, Mr. Romney performed well there." This is a great get
for Romney as he intensifies his efforts in the Hawkeye State with just five weeks until the caucuses. NYT:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c5928b9bbcae0f2875735d074c1d35fce8a1dec2e3fe5b33f1371452aebbb30
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c5928b9bbcae0f2875735d074c1d35fce8a1dec2e3fe5b33f1371452aebbb30 . DMR:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1819c39f2791bee51713d0f1765a18ee34bff524874323e801300fc8fc043be2
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1819c39f2791bee51713d0f1765a18ee34bff524874323e801300fc8fc043be2 .

ROMNEY'S AD - NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMS TO SEND A COMPLAINT LETTER:Romney's first ad certainly drove the conversation yesterday, galvanizing the left and generating the debate that the Romney team had hoped for. But most of the media coverage was negative. The DNC's Rapid Response has sent 20 emails since the ad posted with articles critical of the ad. At least 25 New Hampshire elected officials (names are still being added) will send Romney a letter today that faults him for not putting a plan forward and lowering the political discourse. Signers include the House and Senate Minority Leaders. WMUR, the station actually running the ad, devoted a lengthy segment to the spot on last night's 11 p.m.
newscast:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1819c39f2791bee504dfeb8ba8077606e9c20157421b164ddaf2cf3491ba68c1
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1819c39f2791bee504dfeb8ba8077606e9c20157421b164ddaf2cf3491ba68c1 . ThinkProgress posted its own buzzy 30-second web video with clips of Romney speeches taken out of context:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1819c39f2791bee5f3266d3513e43f228179f31e6b858bc901f65ccc07c3e056
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1819c39f2791bee5f3266d3513e43f228179f31e6b858bc901f65ccc07c3e056 .

FLOATING A TRIAL BALLOON - GINGRICH MIGHT HAVE INSIDE TRACK ON PALIN ENDORSEMENT:"While [Sarah] Palin has characteristically kept her cards close to her chest, advisers suggest that the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee is likely to endorse before someone emerges as the inevitable nominee -- and that Newt Gingrich appears to be best-positioned to secure her support," Scott Conroy, who wrote a book on Palin and remains as connected to her inner circle (to the extent she has one) as any DC reporter, writes for Real Clear Politics today. "'They speak very favorably of Newt and what they see as his credentials as compared to Perry and Romney,' one member of Palin's inner circle said [in
reference to Sarah and Todd] ... Gingrich has been particularly effusive in expressing his admiration for Palin over the last few months, and she has returned the favor by heaping praise on the former House speaker... Aides emphasized that while Gingrich currently appears to be the front-runner for Palin's endorsement, her thinking could change."
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MORMON POLLING - RELIGION WILL BE EARLY DRAG ON ROMNEY:"Mitt Romney's Mormon faith will most likely cost him support in the primaries, but even Republicans with reservations about his religion would rally to his side in a general election against President Obama, according to a poll released Wednesday," the New York Times reports. "According to [the Pew Research Center] poll, the greatest resistance to Mr. Romney among Republicans comes from white evangelical Protestants, about half of whom said the Mormon religion is not a Christian faith...In contrast, white Catholics and white mainline Protestants (those in the largest Methodist, Lutheran, Presbyterian and Episcopal denominations)
favored Mr. Romney over other Republican candidates. Views of Mr. Romney were linked to opinions about the Mormon Church, the survey found. About two-thirds of mainline Protestants and Catholics in the survey said the Mormon religion is Christian, compared with only about a third of white evangelicals."
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HUNTSMAN SUPER PAC - BIG THANKSGIVING AD BUYS IN NH:Our Destiny PAC, created to bolster Jon Huntsman's candidacy and reportedly funded by the candidate's billionaire father, continues to pour more money into New Hampshire. NBC's First Read: "According to a source familiar with the ad buy, Our Destiny PAC spent $650,000 to run television ads on broadcast and cable stations across New Hampshire from November 24 to 27. Another source puts the buy's size at $671,000. The ad the Super PAC will air is the same 'Someone' spot that debuted earlier this month, featuring actors' testimonials on the economy followed by a bold, flashy list of Huntsman's credentials."
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FALLON APOLOGIZES - "THE ROOTS" GREETED BACHMANN WITH OFFENSIVE SONG:"TV show host Jimmy Fallon apologized to GOP presidential hopeful Michele Bachmann via Twitter Tuesday for a song played as the presidential candidate walked on stage for her Monday interview on NBC's 'Late Night with Jimmy Fallon,'" per CNN. "As the Minnesota Congresswoman walked out to greet Fallon on stage, the show's band, The Roots, played a song by Fishbone called 'Lyin' A** B****.'"
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GLENN BECK - WOULD VOTE FOR BACHMANN:The radio host stopped short of a full endorsement but said on his show yesterday that he would vote for her. "We have to trust somebody," he said. "The others, many of them are good, decent men. But this woman is exceptional and I would ask that you would take a look at the character and the true life of Michele Bachmann." This would be much more significant if Beck still had a Fox News platform. He's lost most of his cache, even with conservatives, over the last year. But this will still offer some kind of boost. The Minnesota congresswoman immediately sent a fundraising email to her list about the news.
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FAMILY LEADER ENDORSEMENT - DOWN TO 4:The Family Leader, that social conservative Iowa group that hosted last weekend's forum in Des Moines, announced yesterday that they will endorse one of four candidates: Gingrich, Bachmann, Santorum and Perry. "If we are affective or if we can affectively coalesce even 30 percent of support around a candidate it would be huge but we first have to get there ourselves and we're not there yet," Bob Vander Plaats, a former Republican candidate for governor and the CEO of The Family Leader, told the Des Moines Register.
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IOWA - NEWT LITERALLY OWNS PERRY:Check out this Google screen grab a Score reader emailed over. This is what you see in Des Moines if you search for the Texas governor.
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IS HE READY FOR PRIMETIME? - GINGRICH MISSES MISSOURI FILING DEADLINE:He is the only major candidate who did not file to appear on Missouri's primary ballot, according to the secretary of state's office. "Though votes cast by Republicans in the Feb. 7 primary will not impact which presidential candidate gets Missouri's delegates [caucuses do that], officials say the primary allows voters to show their preferences and could help guide caucus results," Juana Summers reports. This is a reminder that Gingrich's operation pales in comparison to the juggernaut that Romney has built in Boston. Little things like this can add up, especially in a drawn-out campaign.
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CAIN'S RELIGIOUS OUTREACH - PENTECOSTAL PASTOR IS UNCONVENTIONAL:"Pentecostal pastor Robert Upton, a former Bush administration liaison with strong ties to the Oneness and Christian Zionist movements" is spearheading outreach to conservative Christians for the Cain campaign, according to Business Insider. "An online resume suggests he has been working in construction near Nashville," reports Grace Wyler. "Upton's apocalyptic beliefs and worship style are fairly radical, even among other Pentecostals and fundamentalist Evangelicals...their emphasis on End Times, speaking in tongues, and adhering to strict standards of dress have resulted in a prejudice against Oneness churches in evangelical
circles...Cain's communications director JD Gordon confirms that Upton, or 'Pastor Bob' as he called him, joined the campaign staff 'within the past month' as an outreach coordinator to faith-based communities nationwide."
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WHAT THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ARE UP TO:Romney speaks at Nationwide Insurance in Des Moines at 9:30 a.m. CT. Buddy Roemer has breakfast at Caribou Coffee at 9:30 a.m. in Silver Spring, goes on News Channel 8 in DC at 10 and then visits the Occupy DC protests at McPherson Square at 12:30.

BRACKETING ROMNEY - IOWA DEMS PREPARE THANKSGIVING MENU:The Iowa Democratic Party welcomes Romney to the state with a Thanksgiving menu "where everything is served two ways." The leaflet accuses him of flip-flopping on climate change, the flat tax, health care, the auto bailout, stimulus and payroll tax cuts. Iowa Democrats are also hosting a conference call at 9 a.m., with Congressman Leonard Boswell and state chair Sue Dvorsky, to criticize the frontrunner for opposing payroll tax cuts. The "menu":
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1819c39f2791bee5a253ef6e4d6715133d39b5061a9422c8663f6cd240b34b66
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1819c39f2791bee5a253ef6e4d6715133d39b5061a9422c8663f6cd240b34b66 .

WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS UP TO: "In the morning, the President will pardon the National Thanksgiving Turkey in a ceremony in the North Portico...In the afternoon, the First Family will participate in a service event in the Washington, DC area. There will be travel pool coverage."

PENNSYLVANIA IN PLAY - OBAMA UNDERWATER:"If the Republicans nominated Mitt Romney and the election was today Barack Obama would probably lose Pennsylvania, fundamentally reshaping the 2012 electoral map," the Democratic Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen concludes. "Obama has dreadful poll numbers in the state, with only 42% of voters approving of him to 53% who disapprove. With white voters he's at only a 36/59 spread, numbers we're more used to seeing in the South than the Northeast. He's also at a much lower than normal 69% approval rating with Democrats while independents split against him 45/53 and only 9% of GOP voters give him good marks.Obama and Romney are tied at 45% each but if
you dig in on the undecided voters only 24% of them approve of Obama's job performance to 70% who disapprove."
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PROGRAMMING NOTE:I will be off Thursday and Friday. Score will return Monday.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY:"Africa was a country on the brink." - Rick Santorum, explaining his push for legislation to combat AIDS
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