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Presented by the National Association of Manufacturers: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day Dec 10, 2018 View in browser
By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman and Daniel Lippman

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DRIVING THE DAY
NEW ... THE PLAYBOOK POWER LIST -- "19 TO WATCH IN 2019" is up. This list features politicians, activists and operatives across the country who are positioned to play a critical role in the political landscape leading up to 2020. From the new generation reshaping the Democratic Party to the behind-the-scenes players who keep Congress moving and those with their eyes on the presidential election, these are the people to watch over the next 12 months. The full list

THE LIST (in alphabetical order): Jarrod Agen ... Aimee Allison ... Anne Caprara ... Saikat Chakrabarti ... Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) ... Justin Clark ... Gary Coby ... Michael Dreeben ... Lauren Fine ... Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) ... Lisa Goeas ... Drew Hammill ... Patti Harris ... Tish James ... Brendon Plack ... Angela Ramirez ... Juan Rodriguez ... Rep.-elect Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) ... Rep.-elect Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.)

-- A BIG THANK YOU to Playbook producers Garrett Ross and Eli Okun for taking the lead on this project. And to our colleagues who wrote profiles.

DOW FUTURES were down 75 points as of 5:55 a.m.

-- WSJ: "For the first time since the dot-com era, investors are cautious about buying shares after selloffs, raising signals that the longest bull market in U.S. history is in its late stages." WSJ

DOES ANYBODY WANT TO BE CHIEF OF STAFF? ... ELIANA JOHNSON and ALEX ISENSTADT: "From pinnacle to punchline: How Trump diminished the job of his chief of staff": "For decades, the job of White House chief of staff was among Washington's most desirable jobs - a pinnacle of access and power. Like so many other things in the White House, that has been changed by President Donald Trump."

"On Sunday evening, the vice president's chief of staff, Nick Ayers, who had been the leading candidate to succeed outgoing White House chief of staff John Kelly, took himself out of the running. Ayers, who is only 36, is a savvy political operative wired with GOP donors and party leaders, and friends say he hopes to run for office himself one day.

"In any ordinary White House, the job he is declining - for what he calls family reasons - would be an ambitious insider's dream. To take two recent examples: Rahm Emanuel, who served as chief of staff to President Barack Obama, went on to serve as mayor of Chicago, and Leon Panetta, who spent two and a half years in the job under President Bill Clinton, served as CIA chief and Secretary of Defense.

"It's a different story under Trump. A job that was once a ticket to Washington royalty has recently become a laughing stock. Trump's first two top aides, Kelly and Reince Priebus before him, have left as diminished and arguably humiliated figures, unable to control the wild chaos of this president's White House." POLITICO

INDEED ... WE MADE a round of calls last night about the chief of staff job and heard the same thing over and over again: No one wants it this time, and it's an exceedingly bad phase of the administration to take the helm. Whoever takes over right now would likely be at Trump's side when special prosecutor Robert Mueller's report drops, when Democrats on Capitol Hill start hammering him and as the market continues to slump.

AXIOS' JONATHAN SWAN reported that the president is considering NORTH CAROLINA REP. MARK MEADOWS. That would be a sea change from John Kelly. Axios

WILL THE NARRATIVE that Trump can't find someone for this job force him to make a quick decision?

NYT'S MAGGIE HABERMAN: "[T]wo people close to Mr. Trump said that a news release announcing Mr. Ayers's appointment had been drafted, and that the president had wanted to announce it as soon as possible. ...

"But some West Wing officials said Mr. Ayers had been measured and cautious in recent days as he negotiated with Mr. Trump and his family. ... Other factors may also have weighed on Mr. Ayers. His ascension to the top West Wing job would have meant newfound scrutiny of his personal finances - last year he reported a net worth of $12.2 million to $54.8 million, a sizable sum for a political operative in his 30s who has amassed his own fortune.

"He accumulated his wealth partly through a web of political and consulting companies in which he has held ownership stakes. And Mr. Ayers, who has been seen as a potential candidate for statewide office in Georgia, could have potentially faced a fate shared by many who have left the administration: a diminished public standing after an ugly parting with a mercurial president who often insults his former aides on Twitter. ... But this time, Mr. Ayers was the only person Mr. Trump had focused on since he made up his mind to part ways with Mr. Kelly.

"With a head of blond hair, Mr. Ayers somewhat resembles Mr. Trump in his younger days, a fact that the president often looks for as a positive signal. The president had an unusual affinity for Mr. Ayers, telling aides who expressed concern about Mr. Ayers that he liked him." NYT

-- @nick_ayers: "Thank you @realDonaldTrump, @VP, and my great colleagues for the honor to serve our Nation at The White House. I will be departing at the end of the year but will work with the #MAGA team to advance the cause. #Georgia"

-- @realDonaldTrump at 8:27 p.m.: "I am in the process of interviewing some really great people for the position of White House Chief of Staff. Fake News has been saying with certainty it was Nick Ayers, a spectacular person who will always be with our #MAGA agenda. I will be making a decision soon!"

A message from the National Association of Manufacturers:

End the HIT now! Americans already struggle with rising health care costs. Congress must protect Americans from the Health Insurance Tax (HIT), the Medical Device Tax and the "Cadillac" Tax. After 2019, the HIT will impact approximately 140 million Americans, increasing health care costs for manufacturers and workers. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3dffabde46bcbbec5e921191fd25e46a5bee7fe569fcb5f2bafebb34b4892a447dbdbe1707c7c53cc56845d22dc7da46

ANDREW RESTUCCIA and NANCY COOK: "Already, three candidates for the job - Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney, and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer - have signaled that they would prefer to stay put, though they could change their minds if the president lobbies them aggressively. Two White House officials said Trump would make a final decision on his next chief of staff by the end of the year.

"One of the officials said Trump is considering four candidates ... In recent days, the president has been polling advisers and allies on what they think about Meadows. Another person in the running is acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker, according to a Republican close to the White House. Trump has told allies he is very fond of Whitaker, who was among top aides who attended Saturday's Army-Navy football game with the president. ... Ayers, who had previously told White House aides that he planned to step down in December, is leaving the administration to join America First, a Trump-aligned outside group, officials said." POLITICO

Good Monday morning. SCENE SETTER ... NYT'S JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS and EMILY COCHRANE: "Shutdown Looms and Priorities Stack Up as Congress Races Toward Session's End"

BURGESS EVERETT and HEATHER CAYGLE: "'His word isn't good': Dems don't trust Trump to make shutdown deal": [A]s Democrats seriously re-engage with Trump for the first time in nearly a year, their broad distrust of the president has expectations for a deal at rock bottom.

"'We've had limited success in dealing with this president,' said Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.). 'His word isn't good. Within 48 hours he reverses himself. It's very difficult to enter into a long-term agreement.' The House and Senate Democratic leaders have been here before. Multiple times over the past two years they thought they'd cut a deal with Trump only to see him swiftly trash 'Chuck and Nancy' and demand hefty conservative concessions.

"Now Trump is threatening to shut down a large swath of the federal government if he doesn't get billions in funding for his border wall. But Democrats say they have no reason to think talks this week will end differently than they have in the past, according to interviews with more than a half-dozen House and Senate Democrats. And the Democratic leaders - constrained by an aggressive left flank in the party - are in no mood to even try to strike a sweeping immigration deal like in past negotiations." POLITICO

BLOOMBERG'S SAHIL KAPUR: "Pelosi's Top Job in 2019: Referee Fights Between Rival Democrats"

THE INVESTIGATIONS ...

-- WAPO'S ROZ HELDERMAN, TOM HAMBURGER and CAROL LEONNIG: "Russians interacted with at least 14 Trump associates during the campaign and transition": "The Russian ambassador. A deputy prime minister. A pop star, a weightlifter, a lawyer, a Soviet army veteran with alleged intelligence ties. Again and again and again, over the course of Donald Trump's 18-month campaign for the presidency, Russian citizens made contact with his closest family members and friends, as well as figures on the periphery of his orbit. Some offered to help his campaign and his real estate business.

"Some offered dirt on his Democratic opponent. Repeatedly, Russian nationals suggested Trump should hold a peacemaking sit-down with Vladimir Putin - and offered to broker such a summit. In all, Russians interacted with at least 14 Trump associates during the campaign and presidential transition, public records and interviews show. 'It is extremely unusual,' said Michael McFaul, who served as ambassador to Russia under President Barack Obama. 'Both the number of contacts and the nature of the contacts are extraordinary.'" WaPo

-- NEXT UP ... NYT'S BEN PROTESS, WILLIAM RASHBAUM and MAGGIE HABERMAN: "Done With Michael Cohen, Federal Prosecutors Shift Focus to Trump Family Business": "After Mr. Cohen pleaded guilty in August to breaking campaign finance laws and other crimes - he will be sentenced on Wednesday - the federal prosecutors in Manhattan shifted their attention to what role, if any, Trump Organization executives played in the campaign finance violations, according to people briefed on the matter. Mr. Cohen, Mr. Trump's self-described fixer, has provided assistance in that inquiry, which is separate from the investigation by the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III.

"In addition to implicating Mr. Trump in the payments to the two women, Mr. Cohen has told prosecutors that the company's chief financial officer was involved in discussions about them, a claim that is now a focus of the inquiry, according to the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the investigation is continuing. Mr. Cohen has told prosecutors that he believes Mr. Trump personally approved the company's decision to reimburse him for one of the payments, one of the people said." NYT

A message from the National Association of Manufacturers:

End the HIT now! Americans already struggle with rising health care costs. Congress must protect Americans from the Health Insurance Tax (HIT), the Medical Device Tax and the "Cadillac" Tax. After 2019, the HIT will impact approximately 140 million Americans, increasing health care costs for manufacturers and workers. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3dffabde46bcbbec155662109ce71968445f8ea9b1e2c80533267b9b7ec8b271caa3f7fd306be08acb5af7e05b9a42fb

2020 WATCH ... HOLLY OTTERBEIN in Burlington, Vt.: "Biden hits Sanders' home turf as he tests 2020 waters": "Biden - speaking at an event to promote his book, 'Promise Me, Dad: A Year of Hope, Hardship, and Purpose' - equivocated on the question of whether he'd challenge Trump. Biden has said previously he would decide on a run in the next few months.

"Novelist Jodi Picoult asked Biden how he wanted to spend the rest of his life. The former vice president only said he would keep his promise to his late son, Beau, to stay involved in public life. 'I gave my word, as his dad, that I'd stay engaged,' said Biden. He added, however, that he also wants to 'spend as much time as I can with my family.' POLITICO

-- NATASHA KORECKI reports that SEN. ELIZABETH WARREN'S aides have been "quietly shopping for a presidential campaign headquarters space in the Boston area in recent weeks." POLITICO

TRUMP'S MONDAY -- The president will have lunch with VP Mike Pence.
PLAYBOOK READS


PHOTO DU JOUR: A Honduran woman squeezes through the U.S. border wall from Tijuana, Mexico, on Sunday, opting to turn herself in and request asylum there rather than wait in the long line for processing on the other side. | Rebecca Blackwell/AP Photo

THE NEXT HEALTH CARE FIGHT -- "Establishment looks to crush liberals on Medicare for All," by Adam Cancryn: "The united front that helped Democrats save Obamacare just a year ago is falling apart over single-payer health care. Deep-pocketed hospital, insurance and other lobbies are plotting to crush progressives' hopes of expanding the government's role in health care once they take control of the House. The private-sector interests, backed in some cases by key Obama administration and Hillary Clinton campaign alumni, are now focused on beating back another prospective health care overhaul, including plans that would allow people under 65 to buy into Medicare.

"This sets up a potentially brutal battle between establishment Democrats who want to preserve Obamacare and a new wave of progressive House Democrats who ran on single-payer health care." POLITICO


THE LATEST ON KHASHOGGI -- "'I can't breathe.' Jamal Khashoggi's last words disclosed in transcript, source says," by CNN's Nic Robertson: "'I can't breathe.' These were the final words uttered by Jamal Khashoggi after he was set upon by a Saudi hit squad at the country's consulate in Istanbul, according to a source briefed on the investigation into the killing of the Washington Post columnist. The source, who has read a translated transcript of an audio recording of Khashoggi's painful last moments, said it was clear that the killing on October 2 was no botched rendition attempt, but the execution of a premeditated plan to murder the journalist.

"During the course of the gruesome scene, the source describes Khashoggi struggling against a group of people determined to kill him. 'I can't breathe,' Khashoggi says. 'I can't breathe.' 'I can't breathe.' The transcript notes the sounds of Khashoggi's body being dismembered by a saw, as the alleged perpetrators are advised to listen to music to block out the sound. And, according to the source, the transcript suggests that a series of phone calls are made, briefing them on progress. Turkish officials believe the calls were made to senior figures in Riyadh." CNN

THE FALLOUT ... "Diminished Saudi influence on display in Senate debate over Yemen," by Theo Meyer

-- MCCLATCHY'S LESLEY CLARK and EMMA DUMAIN: "'End times:' Rand Paul, Lindsey Graham find common ground on Saudi Arabia": "Lindsey Graham laughingly says his sudden embrace of of Rand Paul is a sign of what the Bible calls 'end times.' Rand Paul jokes that their mind meld first needed couples' counseling.

"Long at odds when it comes to foreign policy, the South Carolina and Kentucky Republicans have discovered rare common ground: Fury over the role of Saudi Arabia's crown prince in the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and frustration with the Trump administration's support for the kingdom." McClatchy
PLAYBOOKERS
SPOTTED: U.S. Ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell, Sergio Gor, Cliff Sims and Kelly Love having brunch at Cafe Milano on Sunday.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD: Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Rita Ahuja Khanna recently welcomed Zara Khanna, joining big brother Soren, who was born in July 2017.

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker turned 64.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Mike Shields, founder of Convergence Media and a CNN political commentator. A fun fact about Mike: "I'm not sure how fun it is but I grew up in the north of England. I'm a U.S. citizen but I'm also half English. My father met my mother in England when he was in the Air Force in the 50s and returned to England when he was working for the NSA. I was 9 when Thatcher was elected and 10 when Reagan was elected and they are the transatlantic heroes who inspired me to get into politics to fight the evils of socialism. Sadly that seems to be just as relevant today as it was then." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Symone Sanders ... Fox News' Mike Emanuel is 51 (hat tip: James Rosen) ... Mercury CEO Kieran Mahoney (h/t Jon Haber) ... Michael Bodley ... Justin Ahn ... Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) is 69 ... Charlie Watkins ... POLITICO's Katie Fossett and James Arkin ... former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich is 62 ... Greg Rothman ... Misha Belikov ... Megan Whittemore, deputy COS for Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) ... Mitchell Rubenstein ... New York Daily News alum Erin Durkin ... Robert Maguire ... Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) is 68 (h/t Tim Griffin) ... Rep. Austin Scott (R-Ga.) is 49 ... Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.) is 58 ... Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.) is 65 ... Rep.-elect Harley Rouda (D-Calif.)
is 57 ... Shawn Stafford ... Kip Wainscott (h/t wife Amy Dudley) ... Dateline NBC correspondent Andrea Canning ... Chris McGrath ... Bill Baroni ... Jackie McGrath of State (h/t Linnaea Honl-Stuenkel) ... Jose Mario Vaz, president of Guinea-Bissau, is 61 ...

... Steve Johnston (h/t Tim Burger) ... Alex Koppelman, a managing editor at CNN Business ... Jennifer Cox ... Ryan Beene ... Jackie Etter-Krause ... Gigi Anders ... Matt Huckleby, ED of Indiana state GOP ... Lisa Rowan ... Tom Zampino ... David French, SVP of gov't relations at National Retail Federation ... Ellie Bartow ... Kristin Wilson Keppler ... Matthew Gagnon is 38 ... Doug Rosenthal ... Don McDowell ... Susan Milligan, political writer for U.S. News & World Report ... David Kieve, partner at Hilltop Public Solutions ... Laura De Castro ... Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony List ... Doug Badger ... Scott MacKay ... Jess Peterson ... Hope Hodge Seck ... Mitchell
Schwartz ... Rick Siger ... Michelle Mayorga ... Wayne Smith (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)

A message from the National Association of Manufacturers:

Manufacturers have a message for Congress: deal with the returning harmful taxes that raise health care costs for employers and workers. The Health Insurance Tax (HIT) is an unfair and unneeded sales tax on the health care of American families, including American manufacturing workers. The HIT is delayed for 2019, but action is needed now to ensure families don't get saddled with hundreds of dollars of added health care costs in 2020 and beyond. On average, it costs families $500 a year and individuals $200 to $300. The tax primarily hits small businesses' employees and their dependents, Medicare beneficiaries and those buying individual plans. Instead of making life harder for these 140
million Americans, Congress should act now to ensure Americans have relief from the HIT and that small businesses, including manufacturers, can continue providing quality health care coverage for their employees. Learn more about why manufacturers oppose the HIT at http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3dffabde46bcbbecd2a9530c49cf01cc6cd3765cf78d0428736a7297d9ec102a4ef38b24db5f1512d814f6ea90dd69e8

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