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08/20/2018 07:56 AM EDT


By Nolan D. McCaskill (nmccaskill@politico.com or @NolanDMcCaskill)

CONSERVATIVES CRUSH LIBERALS IN SCOTUS AD WAR -- A slim majority isn't Senate Republicans' only advantage in the battle to confirm Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. President Donald Trump's high court pick is also being backed by outside conservative groups that have vastly outspent liberal groups in advertising. "Conservatives have run more than $7.5 million in ads thus far compared with approximately $1.3 million from liberals in the fight over Kavanaugh's confirmation, according to spending analyzed by POLITICO and Advertising Analytics," Burgess and Maggie Severns report. The targets include Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), Susan Collins
(R-Maine), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Doug Jones (D-Ala.).

"I'm seeing myself more on TV than I did last year when I ran," Jones lamented. "The money disadvantage is yet another handicap for Democrats who appear unable to unilaterally stop Kavanaugh's confirmation and adds increased pressure on the most vulnerable senators to fold on the nominee," they write. Manchin, Heitkamp and Donnelly are the most likely Democrats to flip. They each supported Neil Gorsuch last year and are all up for reelection in states Trump won in 2016. Jones isn't up for reelection this year but represents a red state Trump won by 28 points.

"It was always going to be true that the right would outspend the left in this fight," said Brian Fallon, a former aide to Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and press secretary for Hillary Clinton's 2016 presidential campaign who leads Demand Justice. "[Judicial Crisis Network], the Kochs and the NRA will still drastically outspend our side, but it will probably be closer to 6- or 7-to-1 instead of the 20-to-1 edge you saw on Gorsuch." Still, Republicans say the money is making a difference. Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=86d3253b8194321d9d98f3fac4e88b89a457df962a8a3cdbd89da91f9be1e6b1b990c30157ce5d2666e2c7ed21cf3fc2

STICK TO THE PLAN -- Senate Democrats are reminding themselves to focus on the issues Kavanaugh would impact if he sat on the high court -- such as Obamacare and abortion rights -- not the process. But they have sometimes lost focus and talked about documents -- process -- instead. They uttered the term "documents" more than two dozen times at a news conference last week announcing a potential lawsuit against the National Archives over access to hundreds of thousands of pages of documents. "All the while they never once mentioned abortion rights and only spoke about health-care when a reporter asked," The Washington Post's Paul Kane writes.

Ahead of the news conference, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) had warned that any number of documents withheld could hide Kavanaugh's views on a range of issues on which he could be the deciding vote. "That's the sort of argument that is more likely to resonate with both liberal activists and swing voters in key battleground states," Kane adds. Democrats focused on process instead of issues in 2016 when Senate Republicans blocked Merrick Garland from getting a hearing. Their effort did little to energize activists or pressure Senate Republicans up for reelection in states President Barack Obama had won.

Senate Democrats and outside liberal groups failed to tie Garland's nomination to issues Democratic voters care about or even mention Garland in stump speeches and ads. The result? Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch. For Democrats this time around, success would look like this: "If Democrats defeat Kavanaugh, that would be the biggest victory. But even if he is confirmed, Democrats can at least try to galvanize voters ahead of the fall elections in some key states and lay the groundwork for elevating the courts as an issue for the 2020 presidential campaign." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=86d3253b8194321d0958bf045f81b0e6f3644fb0320e088a43fc998d0d584dc0307ebe99dbf0a57f63bb7d66b6f5366c

Related: "Inside Trump's Judicial Takeover," by Rolling Stone's Andy Kroll: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=86d3253b8194321d1b4ec8522668af14bba00e10ab411f52511075688bb177285d641e4d4761f20193637d22856e11ec

GOOD MORNING! Thanks for reading Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, Aug. 20.

FRIDAY'S MOST CLICKED: The Hill's report on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) criticizing Republican senators who missed votes last week was the winner.

MCCARTHY'S MIDTERM CAMPAIGN -- Democrats see a wave. But Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) only sees a "tornado." "A tornado touches down in spots," the House majority leader explains. "A wave crashes over everybody." McCarthy appeared at the Iowa State Fair over the weekend, a reflection of his ambition to lead House Republicans next year. McCarthy has utilized the chamber's August recess to campaign with candidates, fundraise and give "advice, encouragement and occasional ultimatums to the Republicans who will determine whether the GOP will hold on to its precarious 23-seat majority," The Washington Post's Mike DeBonis writes. McCarthy is confident that, if successful, he will have made an
unassailable case for himself to become speaker.

"I've always believed the person who works the hardest, there will be something better for you," McCarthy said before his appearance at the fair. "Surpass expectations, and there'll be another opportunity." After his 2015 run for speaker was derailed, this year offers another opportunity. A lot has changed since then. McCarthy is now one of President Donald Trump's closest allies in Congress and has Speaker Paul Ryan's (R-Wis.) support. But Freedom Caucus co-founder Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) is also running for speaker, and some lawmakers privately wonder whether Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) would be a better choice. Inside McCarthy's midterm campaign for speaker:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=86d3253b8194321dc4ac12eb474d92e06652deb752e3539ef1c87c253b6930c835756fbad750f2eaab07b55a868e8d8f

BARRASSO GETS A BATTLE -- Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) has never faced significant opposition during his 16 years in office -- until now. "Dave Dodson, a political newcomer and businessman little known in Wyoming, has made a bold Republican primary bid to tap anger over Barrasso's corporate donations and Washington ties," The Associated Press' Mead Gruver reports. "On Tuesday, Wyoming voters will decide whether they're angry enough to bring home a man whose supporters refer to [him] as 'Wyoming's doctor,' or are still happy to have Barrasso, a rising star in the Senate, represent them." A preview of Tuesday's primary: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=86d3253b8194321d73a9b5108466a2932d8cfa8f5d43e88c75c7529d0359bca50fa232a9e1cc12ebdb2d0b56b0eea70e

TOP TARGET -- In spite of everything, Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) could still deliver Republicans a crucial Senate win. Major GOP groups have written Cramer off, and the North Dakota Republican has less than half as much money in the bank as his opponent, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), who interviewed for a post in the Trump administration and has visited the Trump White House a half-dozen times. Still, "top Republicans routinely rank him as one of their best prospects to seize a Democratic-held Senate seat in 2018," Elana reports. "Cramer's unflinching support for the president might be a more popular play with voters than Heitkamp's vow to rein him in when she feels she has to." Much more:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=86d3253b8194321da994a69a06b68fe2f2039b816248396cce86a5ca8325a9d0db1cf4bc8c8acb52406dac1cd64ddfc1

OPPO DUMP -- Democrats are being defined in ads this month by dramatized police dispatch calls of a DUI arrest, sexual harassment allegations and court filings reviewing "failed" business investments. But those are "just the tip of the iceberg," said Guy Harrison, a GOP consultant who led the NRCC during the 2010 and 2012 cycles. "The fact is that the treasure trove of research books on these Democratic candidates is amazing. It's probably the deepest and most wacky I've ever seen in a cycle." Many Democrats are running as first-time candidates, meaning they lack the baggage of voting records and controversial positions.

So whether they make it to Congress may hinge on GOP efforts to vet them publicly for the first time. "A review of research materials collected by the [NRCC] shows that the campaign committee plans to litigate many more Democrats' professional history, including digging through client and case histories of a half-dozen attorneys running in top battleground districts," Elena Schneider reports. "[Congressional Leadership Fund] set up its own in-house research unit, a first for the group this cycle as it seeks to dig up its own dirt on Senate and House candidates." Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=86d3253b8194321d391181b9127f0726e018ae481ea74499ff108f75fc5b598a044e2d1bef132aaf17735224d2176c73

Related read: "Trump Tax Cut Unlocks Millions for a Republican Election Blitz," from The New York Times' Jim Tankersley and Michael Tackett: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=86d3253b8194321de28653a011358744109aea9627a7793737495772b2fe1366ae1e50981094d15ab053241f16dfd1f7

GOP MISFITS -- Remember Bob Corker (R-Tenn.)? The Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman was once seen as a potential secretary of state. Now he's on his way out of the Senate. "The expanding list of marginalized GOP leaders underscores how thoroughly Trump has dominated -- and changed -- the Republican Party in the nearly two years since he seized the presidency," The Associated Press' Steve Peoples reports. "The overwhelming majority of elected officials, candidates and rank-and-file voters now follow the president with extraordinary loyalty, even if he strays far from the values and traditions many know and love. The Republicans left behind are warning their party with increasing
urgency, though it's unclear whether anyone's listening."

Corker, retiring Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) and Rep. Mark Sanford (R-S.C.), who lost his primary after Trump endorsed his opponent, are among the group of forgotten Republicans, Trump critics whose outspokenness have seemingly cost them their place in Congress and today's Republican Party. "Isolation and political exile have been their rewards," Peoples writes. "Their diminished roles leave fewer Republican leaders willing to challenge Trump under any circumstances, even in his darkest moments." Sanford, who concedes he's a misfit in today's GOP, said he's "baffled by the way so many people have looked the other way." But it's those Republicans pledging unconditional loyalty to Trump who are
winning. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=86d3253b8194321d3c1600cc6d1966bb81dcb6e26ac80e37af628cbeaa94e55826925d647819a6825f7d4b1dc3407d0b

Related: "'I'm not going there': As Trump hurls racial invective, most Republicans stay silent," via The Washington Post's Ashley Parker, Seung Min Kim and Robert Costa: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=86d3253b8194321d11e63dd8387510f0c59d9047a6792ef77ce1061c21d9667c56eb69a5bf818fb64a493c521e028c15

FARENTHOLD'S BLAME GAME -- Disgraced former Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Texas) says he "took a bullet for the team" when he resigned following sexual misconduct allegations. He maintains he's right not to repay the $84,000 in taxpayer money he spent on a settlement and blames "f-tards" and the #MeToo movement for ending his congressional career. "Yeah, it's a lot. And that's just a sample of Farenthold's comments in an Aug. 1 deposition he gave in a lawsuit over his new job at a Texas port authority," HuffPost's Jennifer Bendery reports. HuffPost highlights key portions of the deposition, texts and emails: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=86d3253b8194321d882a5e29c22156ae755ff878626abac6cc68817803f2fa7f495b54bbb88fe4260dfbd5080a5e0a58

Related read: "Accuser in Tony Cárdenas assault case alleges he helped her family get free rent," per the Los Angeles Times' David Zahniser and Sarah D. Wire: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=86d3253b8194321d42826a21d599b622b9295dd1c0a61c22ea843160bc878473292fa5e138a543cd00353605bc525fb7

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- James Quinn, chief of staff for Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), and Shannon Quinn, a teacher at Randolph Elementary School, welcomed Grace Frances Quinn on Wednesday. She weighed 6 lbs 9 oz. Pic

TODAY IN CONGRESS -- The Senate meets at 3 p.m. to resume consideration of the DOD-Labor-HHS-Education Appropriations Act of 2019. At 5:30 p.m., the chamber will hold two roll call votes on amendments. The House is out.

AROUND THE HILL -- Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) will meet with Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

FRIDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER -- Hunter Pickels was first to correctly guess Oneida County is split between designated market areas in New York. Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.) represents the county, which falls entirely within the 22nd Congressional District.

TODAY'S TRIVIA -- From Hunter: Who was the first president to have a veto overridden, and how many times has Congress overridden a veto since? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: nmccaskill@politico.com.

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