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08/14/2018 07:52 AM EDT


By Nolan D. McCaskill (nmccaskill@politico.com or @NolanDMcCaskill)

RACE TO WATCH -- The costliest Senate primary of the year will come to an end tonight as voters determine whether establishment-backed state Sen. Leah Vukmir or businessman and veteran Kevin Nicholson will face Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) this fall. "Republicans have seen more than $12 million in outside spending" on the Wisconsin Senate primary, Steven Shepard and James Arkin report. Vukmir is backed by the state GOP, House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and allies and family members of Gov. Scott Walker. Nicholson, however, has been boosted by Republican megadonor Richard Uihlein, who has financed groups that have spent roughly $10 million on the airwaves for Nicholson.

"Vukmir also has a billionaire backer, Diane Hendricks, but she has leaned more on a May endorsement from the state GOP, calling herself a proven conservative and campaigning on her role enacting Walker's conservative agenda," they write. Walker has stayed neutral, but his wife endorsed Vukmir, his son works on her campaign and operatives from his past campaigns are running a pro-Vukmir super PAC. Nicholson, meanwhile, is running as an outsider but has been attacked for converting from Democrat to Republican. Baldwin, one of 10 Senate Democrats up for reelection in states President Donald Trump won in 2016, is favored to win the general election.

"Recent polls have shown a close race with a substantial group of undecided voters," Shepard and Arkin continue. "Democrats are hoping the negativity of the race will leave the nominee bruised and broke heading into the general election against Baldwin. But Republicans have already prepared themselves for the quick turnaround after the primary. The state GOP has specifically avoided going negative in the race so it is prepared to activate on behalf of Nicholson if he prevails. And Uihlein and Hendricks are co-chairing a fundraiser Friday for the primary winner."

THE RACE TO REPLACE RYAN -- Republicans and Democrats are facing competitive primaries in the race to replace House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) in Congress. Ryan has endorsed former aide Bryan Steil, who's running against four opponents, including former Ryan challengers. The Democratic nomination is between ironworker Randy Bryce and Janesville school board member Cathy Myers. "Bryce has been a fundraising machine, but he's spent a lot, too: As of July 25, Bryce had raised $6.3 million for the cycle -- and spent $4.6 million of it," Shepard and Arkin note. "Bryce would also bring some baggage to the race: He was arrested in 1998 for driving under the influence and later had his license
suspended." Trump won the district by 10 points in 2016, and the Republican nominee is slightly favored to win in November.

REPUBLICANS EYE PICKUPS IN MINNESOTA -- Rep. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) is running for governor, and Rep. Rick Nolan (D-Minn.) is running on a ticket with Walz's opponent, state Attorney General Lori Swanson, as a candidate for lieutenant governor. Trump won both of their districts by 15 points in 2016. In the 1st District, "Democrats are likely to nominate Dan Feehan, an Army veteran and former Obama administration official," Shepard and Arkin write. "Republicans are choosing Tuesday between Jim Hagedorn -- who lost to Walz in both 2014 and 2016 -- and state Sen. Carla Nelson. Most observers see Nelson as the stronger general election candidate, but Hagedorn maintains name ID in the district and
earned the endorsement of the state GOP."

In the 8th District, Republicans are touting St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber, who won the president's endorsement Monday. "Democrats, on the other hand, are hoping former state Rep. Joe Radinovich emerges from a five-way primary on Tuesday," they add. "They believe Radinovich, who managed Nolan's 2016 campaign, is the only Democrat with the resources to take on Stauber in the fall." What else to watch: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04defa0e670eee2d6521aa7db7841c9310341087bc90ef98c7614733e4ca5a424f0008f57ee451171a2b00357fedab93

GOOD MORNING! Thanks for reading Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Tuesday, Aug. 14.

MONDAY'S MOST CLICKED: The Buffalo News' report on potential Republican candidates who could replace Rep. Chris Collins (R-N.Y.) was the winner.

SNUBBED -- President Donald Trump spoke for nearly 30 minutes at a signing ceremony at Fort Drum in New York, where he thanked multiple members of Congress and signed into law a $716 billion defense policy bill named after Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). But the president conspicuously avoided any mention of the ailing senator, a former prisoner of war and chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee who has spent 2018 at home in Arizona as he battles brain cancer. "The snub was not entirely unexpected," The New York Times' Michael D. Shear writes. "The president has repeatedly disparaged Mr. McCain, usually without using his name."

Trump mocked McCain later Monday as the "wonderful senator" who "put his thumbs down at 2 o'clock in the morning," a reference to his "no" vote on Obamacare repeal. McCain, for his part, didn't mention the president in his statement released after the bill signing. "I'm humbled that my colleagues in Congress chose to designate this bill in my name," McCain said. "Serving as Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee and working on behalf of America's brave service members has been one of the greatest honors of my life. ... There is no higher calling than to serve a cause greater than self-interest." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04defa0e670eee2d1c322e70de8c19c030cc37afb33e34cbe7ed2f6c7fef2a302ac36b8e66ae1966b791244a2971383b

SEMI-SNUBS -- Trump did name-check Rep. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.), the GOP Senate candidate who was invited to the Fort Drum bill signing. But the president didn't give McSally his coveted endorsement, despite a previous plea from NRSC Chairman Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) to boost McSally over state Sen. Kelli Ward and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Trump touted McSally's resume, noting that she's as an Air Force veteran and the nation's first female fighter pilot to fly a mission in combat. "I've gotten to know her very well, and she is terrific," Trump said. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04defa0e670eee2d718291608ba9a4586344692e94b6af730875b57c2b3ecc10671a1c45801d6836c38767fadb770894

The president did endorse Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.) at a fundraiser. "But he appeared to spend more time in his opening remarks touting the long-shot GOP candidate for Senate than the vulnerable congresswoman," Roll Call's Lindsey McPherson reports. Trump lauded Tenney, remarking that Republicans will "hopefully" put her over the top but predicting she'll have no problem getting reelected. "But after less than a minute talking up Tenney, Trump turned his attention to Chele Chiavacci Farley, the Republican running against New York's junior senator, Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand," McPherson adds. Trump wished Farley good luck.

"I see you on television a lot," he said. "You're working hard." "Then, by no apparent measurement other than her television appearances," McPherson continues, "Trump said to Farley, 'Honestly, on the merits, you should win.'" More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04defa0e670eee2db3c0b78d4ee44f1669a92d79c044a152dca0fdc36edb518da7ffbf175bc5a4335cda9f4c9e136985

KUDLOW'S PREDICTION -- Larry Kudlow, the president's top economic adviser, predicts House Republicans will lose seats this fall but still maintain their majority. "These are very good times and the midterms will be a report card on that," Kudlow told Ben White. "The great blue wall has crashed. I think [the] GOP will lose seats but keep the House." Republicans are hoping the economy can help stave off projected Democratic gains in swing districts where the president polls poorly. "But so far, the economy has not played a major role in special elections, with Republican candidates talking more about guns, immigration and other hot-button social issues while painting Democrats as liberal
extremists," White writes. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04defa0e670eee2de8c7edec1aa6a407d703c892650401f3fc42cd14cf89fe0b273db6b16ff40cbdd9d345e8af9d0cce

Related: "Democrats look to longshot territory for midterm gains," by The Associated Press' Dan Sewell and Bill Barrow: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04defa0e670eee2d0bed90b35ea49b6ad9ec61306891ac46a42bd53ecb2d615489c35f67ef336b7583093955116531dd

STEYER UPS SPENDING -- Democratic activist megadonor Tom Steyer is pouring $10 million into a national get-out-the-vote campaign aimed at the 5.5 million Americans who have signed his petition to impeach the president. Steyer's goal is to urge Americans who want to see the president impeached to cast a ballot. Steyer said such personal outreach has already proven effective, pointing to turnout in Ohio's special election last week. "'Need to Impeach' contributed to a near-death experience for the GOP in a seat they held for over 35 years," said Steyer, who noted that members turned out at a rate 30 percent higher than Democrats who didn't sign the impeachment petition. The $10 million
investment is in addition to the $110 million Steyer is already estimated to spend. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04defa0e670eee2d07c5a6c78022c3a57e2b69b51e88260faf0d11d7d2ddc395d4cc06d3fb5cbd77e0fbdd36419c7c44

CHAMBER OF COMMERCE BACKS DEM IN PRIMARY -- The Chamber of Commerce endorsed Mary Glassman over schoolteacher Jahana Hayes in Connecticut's Democratic primary for the 5th Congressional District. "It was the first time in eight years the Chamber has endorsed in a Democratic primary," Lorraine Woellert reports. "As unusual as it is for the Chamber to endorse a Democrat, it is even rarer for the group to wade into a primary race." Glassman and Hayes are running neck and neck. The seat is being vacated by Rep. Elizabeth Esty (D-Conn.), who is retiring after mishandling sexual harassment allegations against her former chief of staff. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04defa0e670eee2db341dab5b23a2536e3a50c0656c7a059057269305cbc479086fd851a1ae84233a02f807048e49e67

HOUSE DEMS SEEK INTERVIEW WITH CHUCK JOHNSON -- House Intelligence Committee Democrats have requested an interview with Chuck Johnson, a controversial self-described "alt-right" activist, as part of their Russia probe. The Democrats want information on Johnson's work with GOP activist Peter W. Smith during the 2016 campaign to obtain emails allegedly hacked from Hillary Clinton. But Johnson told POLITICO he doesn't intend to comply with the request for a voluntary interview. "House Democrats continue to informally investigate possible collusion between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin, even after House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes, a Republican, ended his committee's highly
partisan official investigation in April," Ben Schreckinger reports.

"The Democratic effort is mostly toothless because it relies on voluntary cooperation," he continues. "But if Democrats take the House in November, they will gain subpoena power and be able to compel testimony from Johnson and other witnesses." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04defa0e670eee2d91622611849b580d8496056c61f6034699fd0124e33a069cc0d23a8a9198cc914a0b7dbe9dd29ff8

FAMILY MATTERS -- Boost the Democrat and blast your father. That's what Bobby Goodlatte did in a span of less than 24 hours. After tweeting that he had donated to Jennifer Lewis' campaign, Lewis spokesman Josh Stanfield said the Democrat running against Republican Ben Cline to succeed Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.), who chairs the House Judiciary Committee, raised more than $15,000. Bobby Goodlatte also plans to help with the longshot campaign. "He is totally willing to help us out in any way we want him to help us," Lewis said.

Bobby Goodlatte later turned his attention from his father's congressional seat to his father's chairmanship on the judiciary panel. "I'm deeply embarrassed that Peter Strzok's career was ruined by my father's political grandstanding," Bobby Goodlatte tweeted in the wake of news that the FBI had fired the agent who sent anti-Trump texts during the 2016 campaign. "That committee hearing was a low point for Congress. Thank you for your service sir. You are a patriot." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04defa0e670eee2dde8b4bf01016ec33ae3d74efc44721b632cbb94a562182e7779bd52c6f859d50c403edeffb487d38

Related read: "FBI fires Peter Strzok, agent who sent anti-Trump texts," from Kyle: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04defa0e670eee2db41f8ff556a3f0212bb26bc2bb8e07e7571594de4d2ee585c3cea824fd36f7179e857f43f2a06718

TODAY IN CONGRESS -- The House and Senate are out.

MONDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER -- Jason Morganti was first to correctly guess that Harry S. Truman and Ulysses S. Grant are the two presidents who didn't actually have a middle name despite using the letter S to represent one.

TODAY'S TRIVIA -- From Jason: How many teeth did George Washington have at the time of his inauguration? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: nmccaskill@politico.com.

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