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The Evening: Rejected Talks, Restarted Talks, Radiohead and More
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** Good Evening,
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It's Tuesday, July 31st.

Note: The Evening will be “gone fishin’” on August 1.


** Iran Rejects Trump Offer
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Senior Iranian officials and military commanders today rejected U.S. President Donald Trump’s offer of talks without preconditions as worthless and “a dream”, saying his words contradicted his action of reimposing sanctions on Tehran, as Reuters’ Bozorgmehr Sharafedin reports (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear/iran-rejects-trump-offer-of-talks-as-a-dream-without-value-idUSKBN1KL1YI?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: “Trump’s unconvincing ‘hearts and minds’ strategy on Iran (http://www.mei.edu/content/article/trump-s-unconvincing-hearts-and-minds-strategy-iran?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) ,” by the Middle East Institute’s Alex Vatanka and Robert Reasoner.


** U.S. China Trade Talks
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The U.S. and China are trying to restart talks aimed at averting a full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies, as Bloomberg’s Jenny Leonard, Peter Martin, Saleha Mohsin and Jennifer Jacobs report (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-31/u-s-china-said-to-seek-to-restart-talks-to-defuse-trade-war?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: “Trump's $262 Billion China Tariff Threat Plays with the Bank’s Money (https://piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/trumps-262-billion-china-tariff-threat-plays-banks-money?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) ,” by the Peterson Institute’s Chad Brown, Euijin Jung and Zhiyao (Lucy) Lu.

“The Cost of Trump’s Economic Nationalism: A Loss of Foreign Investment in the United States (https://piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/cost-trumps-economic-nationalism-loss-foreign-investment-united?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) ,” by the Peterson Institute’s Adam Posen.

Plus, check out CSIS’s podcast, “The Trade Guys (https://www.csis.org/podcasts/trade-guys?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) ”


** Facebook
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Facebook announced today that it has identified a coordinated political influence campaign, with dozens of inauthentic accounts and pages that are believed to be engaging in political activity around divisive social issues ahead of November’s midterm elections, as the
New York Times' Nicholas Fandos and Kevin Roose report (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/31/us/politics/facebook-political-campaign-midterms.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: The Kremlin Playbook (https://www.csis.org/analysis/kremlin-playbook?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) , by CSIS’s Heather Conley.

Low-Hanging Fruit: Evidence-Based Solutions to the Digital Evidence Challenge (https://www.csis.org/analysis/low-hanging-fruit-evidence-based-solutions-digital-evidence-challenge?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) , by CSIS’s Will Carter, Jennifer Daskal, and William Crumpler.


** North Korea’s New Missiles
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U.S. spy agencies are seeing signs that North Korea is constructing new missiles at a factory that produced the country’s first intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States, as the Washington Post’s Ellen Nakashima and Joby Warrick report (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-spy-agencies-north-korea-is-working-on-new-missiles/2018/07/30/b3542696-940d-11e8-a679-b09212fb69c2_story.html?utm_term=.7d0e2b815306&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: “The End of War and the North Korean Model for Working Toward ‘Complete Denuclearization (https://www.cfr.org/blog/end-war-and-north-korean-model-working-toward-complete-denuclearization?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) ,’” by CFR’s Scott Snyder.


** Your Questions
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Do you have any questions about trade and how a changing U.S. trade policy may affect your life? If you do, please email me your question(s) to aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org?subject=Your%20Questions) . We’ll publish some of the best questions and get our experts to answer them on an upcoming CSIS podcast.


** Enroll for Fall
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Now enrolling for the Fall, CSIS & Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs offer a new Executive Master's in International Relations. Information here (https://www.csis.org/programs/abshire-inamori-leadership-academy/executive-education/executive-masters-international?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) .


** In That Number
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** $19.7 billion
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U.S. business and consumers would face about $19.7 billion in higher costs per year if Trump follows through on a threat to impose a 10 percent duty on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.
Source: American Action Forum (https://www.americanactionforum.org/research/calculating-the-costs-of-the-u-s-china-trade-war-the-administrations-new-tariffs-on-200-billion/?utm_source=American+Action+Forum+Emails&utm_campaign=a56d71ca26-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_30_02_12&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_64783a8335-a56d71ca26-267114517&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) .


** Critical Quote
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** “Threats, sanctions & PR stunts won’t work. Try respect: for Iranians & for int'l commitments.”
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—Javad Zarif, Foreign Minister of Islamic Republic of Iran


** iDeas Lab
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Die Welt
Aerospace.csis.org (https://aerospace.csis.org/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) is a micro-website from the CSIS Aerospace Security Project, which explores the technological, budgetary, and policy issues related to the air and space domains. See a new commentary posted today by CSIS's Thomas Roberts, "Beyond the Glass Ceiling: Why NASA Must Continue to Launch a Diverse Astronaut Corps (https://aerospace.csis.org/beyond-the-glass-ceiling-why-nasa-must-continue-to-launch-a-diverse-astronaut-corps/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) ."

The Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab at CSIS enhances our research with the latest in cutting-edge web technologies, design, and video.


** Optics
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Die Welt
(Photo credit: Terray Sylvester/Getty Images.) Forest burns in the Carr Fire yesterday west of Redding, California.


** Recommended Reading
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“Iraq’s Shia militias: capturing the state (https://www.ft.com/content/ba4f7bb2-6d4d-11e8-852d-d8b934ff5ffa?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) ,” by the
FT’s Andrew England.


** This Town Tomorrow
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Join CSIS at 10:00 a.m. (https://www.csis.org/events/maritime-security-dialogue-conversation-admiral-karl-schultz-commandant-us-coast-guard?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) for a Maritime Security Dialogue featuring Admiral Karl Schultz, Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard.

And at 2:00 p.m. (https://www.csis.org/events/code-putinism-book-launch-event?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) , CSIS will host a launch of the new book The Code of Putinism, which sets out to analyze the ideas, emotions and habits that influence how "Team Putin" views the world.


** Video
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On July 24, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released the International Energy Outlook 2018 (IEO 2018). To mark the release, CSIS hosted a discussion featuring EIA Administrator Linda Capuano, on long-term projections of world energy demand, sources, and carbon dioxide emissions. Watch the full event here. (https://www.csis.org/events/eias-international-energy-outlook-2018?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789)


** Sounds
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CSIS's Energy 360° (https://www.csis.org/podcasts/energy-360?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) examines the energy landscape from the intersection of policy, markets, technologies, and geopolitics. Check out two new episodes on Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program (https://www.csis.org/podcasts/energy-360/whats-next-rfs?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) and energy in Pennsylvania (https://www.csis.org/podcasts/energy-360/energy-pennsylvania-perspectives-puc?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) .


** Smiles
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Thanks for all the great emails about Peaky Blinders. Continuing with the Blinders music theme, it’s a must to discuss Radiohead.

Radiohead has been around since the early 1990s but they are as powerful and relevant today as ever. They simply blow me away in the manner that bands like Led Zeppelin do—where you can’t believe what you are hearing because it is so, so incredibly great. And like Led Zep, you always hear new things no matter how many times you’ve listened to a song.

One thing Radiohead does better than almost anyone who has ever performed rock and roll is to have their music soar—songs start quietly and build to dizzying heights only to end with a cooling off. Take the song, “You and Whose Army (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8ilZUx1LlY&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789) ,” featured in an episode of Peaky Blinders. If you don’t stick with this song for over a minute you will miss out on its tremendous payoff: roaring, rhythmic guitars by Jonny Greenwood and Ed O’Brien fused with Thom Yorke’s earthy keyboards and vocals.
I invite you to email me at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org) and follow me on Twitter @handrewschwartz (https://www.twitter.com/handrewschwartz?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4681357c33-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_31_07_47&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4681357c33-145367789)

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The Evening is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Colm Quinn, Sofie Kodner, and Jackie Ramsay.

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