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08/08/2018 07:55 AM EDT


By Nolan D. McCaskill (nmccaskill@politico.com or @NolanDMcCaskill)

TOO CLOSE TO CALL -- Troy Balderson, President Donald Trump, the NRCC and RNC claimed victory for the GOP Ohio special election candidate late Tuesday, though news organizations declared the race too close to call. Balderson, who leads Democrat Danny O'Connor by 0.9 percentage points, appears poised for victory. But Republicans should be concerned by how much effort was required to maintain control of a central Ohio district that's been red since 1983. As Alex Isenstadt notes this morning, "It took over $3.5 million, visits from the president and vice president, and a late endorsement from the sitting governor."

Trump took credit for getting out the vote, tweeting that Balderson trailed by nearly 30 points in early voting but got "a big turn for the better" after the president rallied for him in Ohio over the weekend. "Now Troy wins a great victory during a very tough time of the year for voting," the president wrote. "He will win BIG in Nov."

Corry Bliss, the executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund -- a House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.)-aligned super PAC that spent millions backing Balderson -- sent a warning to Republicans across the country. "While we won tonight, this remains a very tough political environment and moving forward, we cannot expect to win tough races when our candidate is being outraised," Bliss said. "Any Republican running for Congress getting vastly outraised by an opponent needs to start raising more money." Balderson, who some senior Republicans panned as a poor candidate, was outraised by O'Connor. The winner will serve the remainder of former Rep. Pat Tiberi's (R-Ohio) term, but both
candidates will also compete in November's general election for a full term. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=752bcb796ba5ff5583b91864265a9fae99d748a80a6f418a15838f71df05d50ed470dba312665476ba35a50637198b82

MICHIGAN, MISSOURI SENATE MATCHUPS SET -- Voters in Michigan and Missouri selected Republican candidates to challenge incumbent Democrats in Michigan and Missouri. Trump-endorsed businessman John James, who leads by 10 percentage points over Sandy Pensler, will face Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) this fall. Trump carried Michigan in 2016 by just 0.3 percentage points. Despite his own narrow victory, Trump is bullish that James can unseat Stabenow. He said "future Senator John James" is a "future STAR of the Republican Party," adding that his primary win is "the first of many" victories. "November can't come fast enough!" Trump tweeted.

In Missouri, the expected outcome was confirmed. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) will face state Attorney General Josh Hawley. McCaskill, however, is one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats up for reelection this year. She represents a state Trump won by nearly 20 points in 2016. "Both parties have already invested heavily in the state," Elena Schneider reports. "Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC aligned with Senate Democrats, has spent nearly $8 million in the state, while Republicans have already spent more than $5.5 million attacking McCaskill with ads of their own." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=752bcb796ba5ff551845806d2cbeca1da5f07a9a506d4fe605fd6d02adcf4d1b5c23fe60c151a3656cfa075d4429bd2f

New this morning: "Top takeaways from a pair of election-night squeakers," by Steven Shepard and Scott Bland: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=752bcb796ba5ff55378b2293417f29eed775a7912586efb8b6cc6418ea5427ca6d932a58a5ead150cde00ff6982aa784

HAPPY WEDNESDAY! Thanks for reading Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this August 8.

TUESDAY'S MOST CLICKED: BuzzFeed News' look at Kansas' Ron Estes versus Ron Estes primary was the winner.

DONNELLY BACKS TRUMP ON BORDER WALL FUNDING -- Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) said the president should get significantly more money for his border wall than the $1.6 billion the Senate Appropriations Committee is likely to send him. Donnelly is one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats up for reelection this year, representing a state the president won by nearly 20 percentage points in 2016. Trump, who has threatened a government shutdown over the issue, has told lawmakers he wants $5 billion for the wall in a September spending bill.

"I'm fine with providing him some more," said Donnelly, who doesn't want a shutdown "under any circumstances." "I actually voted for border wall funding three different times. I'm fine with that. I'm fine with $3 [billion], $3.5, $4 or $5" billion this fall. According to Burgess, Donnelly is facing a fresh round of ads this week criticizing his position on immigration. "Donnelly is being savaged," Burgess writes from Indianapolis, "part of a broader Republican strategy to cast Democrats as weak on the border and illegal immigration." Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=752bcb796ba5ff551dd974b167eeb9ac4bec7534b2d72850a0d92257d4a7eb9ed8334315741aab1168f40132afec4f90

Related read: "Republican activists applaud Mike Braun for pre-existing conditions pledge," from the Washington Examiner's David Drucker: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=752bcb796ba5ff55f4c20ee3aa8792e2854eea48d0499e63fa87d78c0363b8d3a5bdd5dd5a851a720eff3d713819cc08

UH OH -- Rep. Scott Taylor (R-Va.) has severed ties with his campaign consultant following allegations of forged signatures in petitions his campaign staff gathered, an issue now being investigated by a special prosecutor. Taylor has also parted ways with his campaign manager for what he described as "separate issues." "My campaign has a zero-tolerance policy for inappropriate activities," Taylor said in a statement. "The statement and the announcement of a special prosecutor came as more people said their names appeared on petitions they never signed, and just a day after Taylor said that he was confident no one on his staff had done anything improper," the Richmond Times-Dispatch's
Patrick Wilson reports.

WHRO reported last week that at least four people who were paid to work on Taylor's campaign helped collect signatures for former Democratic candidate Shaun Brown to appear on the ballot as an independent in an apparent attempt to split votes with Democratic nominee Elaine Luria. "There is nothing illegal about Taylor's staff helping gather signatures to get Brown on the ballot," Wilson writes. "However, allegations surfaced over the weekend that the petitions include a signature of a dead voter and a signature of a voter who had moved out of state in 2013." Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=752bcb796ba5ff5552bf7b93c2626633ed1598e123cae121ac75fc0e8e15779d5db96c1c86a757c10d3e6ee37f964dbe

CMR'S CLOSE ONE -- House Republican Conference Chairwoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) narrowly held the top spot in the state's top-two primary system. With 64 percent of precincts reporting, McMorris Rodgers leads Democrat Lisa Brown by less than half a percentage point, "which could embolden Democrats looking to unseat the only woman in GOP leadership," Roll Call's Bridget Bowman reports. "An aide to McMorris Rodgers noted in an email that votes were still being counted, and that the congresswoman received 42 percent of the primary vote in 2016. She went on to win the general election by 19 points." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=752bcb796ba5ff55c4aec1d41ed214f8b4a4a4258ad616187af12f4d140f8afcd8552588abdec3f3bae6116cd799f2bb

TLAIB POISED TO MAKE HISTORY -- A Conyers won't be replacing former Rep. John Conyers (D-Mich.) in Congress this year. The former lawmaker's great-nephew finished fifth in the primary won by former state Rep. Rashida Tlaib. "Because there are no Republicans running for the seat, Tlaib will become the first Muslim woman elected to Congress," The Detroit News' Christine Ferretti notes. "She has boasted a grassroots campaign and came out on top in fundraising, topping $1 million." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=752bcb796ba5ff5596686e77488238cfa2c46256ce5bcf76d81b1beb382cdc522eadbd64dc5589dc5210a446b921c6e1

STILL YEAR OF THE WOMAN? -- 2018 has been dubbed the year of the woman, but 2019 likely won't be the year women make big gains in Congress. "Despite record-shattering numbers of women waging campaigns at the House, Senate and statewide executive levels, women will still lag far behind men in the proportion of those elected offices they occupy -- no matter what happens in November," Heather and Elana report. "Currently, women make up nearly 20 percent of the House, while 23 of the 100 senators are women. Those figures may well see an uptick after the election, but the increase will be nominal." Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=752bcb796ba5ff55d378f4631e8beead4da509638f2219838b9e54685e19ef7a5270f2c10774fcd2fa56b31f4ca69a56

IN CASE YOU WERE WONDERING -- Rep. Ron Estes (R-Kan.) easily vanquished his unlikely primary opponent, Ron M. Estes. "With 34 percent of precincts reporting, Rep. Estes had won 80.8 percent of the vote, over a challenger who was running almost explicitly to make trouble," The Washington Post's Dave Weigel reports. "The congressman was forced to dip into his campaign funds to inform voters that 'M' stood for 'misleading,' but the other Estes did not run a serious campaign." Estes, who won a 2017 special election, will face off against Democrat James Thompson again. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=752bcb796ba5ff5593d353bc9b0b7533a31c3466e3cc5f5d7a5e48f19d509619046b32486b5c4f30f4660c3afe95e7ee

DELANEY DOES FULL GRASSLEY -- We're still months out from the 2018 midterms, but presidential hopeful Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.) will have already done a full Grassley by Sunday, visiting all 99 of Iowa's counties well ahead of the 2020 Iowa caucuses. "The achievement, which Delaney will mark at a Pizza Ranch in rural Carroll County, is largely symbolic," David Siders writes. "But it serves as a measure of the unusually early, relentless campaign Delaney has been waging. Delaney, a former banker, has already spent more than $1 million advertising in Iowa, the earliest significant investment from a presidential candidate in the state in memory."

"It shows I'm willing to campaign everywhere and anywhere," the longshot candidate said of his soon-to-be-accomplished feat. "It shows the voters of Iowa that I'm committed to listen to what they say, learn from them, but also do the work necessary to be their leader." He added, "If you do well in Iowa and New Hampshire, it gives you a terrific platform to roll into those other states." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=752bcb796ba5ff55ecff2db29f9953f5319c10608d6d228a7c0fb8847d0719ed6b95c97fee093f394aff9f69bce495aa

TRUMP TO VISIT NEW YORK -- The president intends to visit New York on Monday. Trump accepted Rep. Elise Stefanik's (R-N.Y.) invitation to visit Fort Drum, which is home to the Army's 10th Mountain Division. There, Trump will deliver remarks and sign the John McCain NDAA, a defense policy bill that sets the budget and priorities for the Pentagon. Then the president is expected to visit the Utica area to fundraise for Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.). "White House officials provided no other details Tuesday about the trip, Trump's first to Upstate New York since he was elected president," Mark Weiner reports for Syracuse.com. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=752bcb796ba5ff55d963d8b1656be1662fd76db9a50498c190e635868d348854d1bf326303268482a41a399f6ec24659

CRUZ INVITES TRUMP TO TEXAS -- Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) wants his former 2016 opponent to campaign for his reelection bid in Texas. Cruz has invited the president to boost him in his bid to fend off Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas). "I would certainly welcome his support, and I hope to see him in Texas," Cruz said. "I think we are likely to see the president down in Texas before the election."

"Cruz is facing a tougher re-election campaign than many first expected," the Houston Chronicle's Jeremy Wallace writes. "Polls from the last week have shown Cruz holding onto a single-digit lead over O'Rourke, a congressman from El Paso who has set records for Democrats fundraising in Texas. Cruz told supporters in Seguin that he faces a real race and cannot afford for his supporters to be complacent. He said conservatives outnumber liberals in Texas, but if Republicans don't get fired up and get out to vote, he could be in big trouble." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=752bcb796ba5ff5577f0b34dcb8bbebe9ed613c7b2c17caa5fc47b9ee9f884b53254639016bd1b154374850addf50028

Related: "Win or lose, Beto O'Rourke's campaign against Ted Cruz could shape Texas politics for years," via the Texas Tribune's Abby Livingston: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=752bcb796ba5ff55577a494173da049ef34ccac928a238470d4b80335681ccd5a28b3d6fb2b88568c88e21b68c16fcff

TRANSITIONS -- Joe Russo started working at the White House Office of Public Liaison this week. Russo most recently served as coalitions director for the House Judiciary Committee.

TODAY IN CONGRESS -- The House and Senate are out.

TUESDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER -- Nicholas Reindl was first correctly guess that the Department of Defense's original name was the National Military Establishment, which had the unfortunate abbreviation NME (enemy).

TODAY'S TRIVIA -- From Diana Deem: How many presidents were left-handed, and who are they? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: nmccaskill@politico.com.

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