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By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer and Daniel Lippman

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DRIVING THE DAY
SIREN ... REPUBLICANS are becoming increasingly concerned that they will lose the special election in Ohio's 12th congressional district, which would be a horrible sign for their election prospects this fall.

FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS, Republicans involved in the race said internal polling had Republican TROY BALDERSON beating Democrat DANNY O'CONNOR by a high single or low double-digit margin. But the race has tightened, and the election is five days away. A public poll conducted by Monmouth had Balderson up by one point yesterday.

THIS WOULD BE a tough loss for Republicans to explain away. This district has been held by Republicans -- Pat Tiberi and John Kasich -- for 35 years. They got the candidate they wanted in Balderson. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the GOP super PAC, has spent $2.4 million. The NRCC has kicked in $1.3 million.

THE PRESIDENT will be in the district Saturday, which the Republicans hope will juice turnout.

THE BIG PICTURE ... WIN OR LOSE, this is a bad sign for the GOP. This is a seat Republican should run away with. It's an R+7. If R+7 seats are in play, Republicans could be in for a tough November.

BACK TO THE OLD PLAYBOOK -- What is the topic of the late-in-the-game advertisement by the CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND? NANCY PELOSI, of course.

-- 30-SECOND SPOT ... NARRATOR: "After lying the whole campaign, Dishonest Danny O'Connor now admits he'd vote for Pelosi." Chris Matthews: "Pelosi's running for re-election. Would you do that?" O'Connor: "I would support whoever the Democratic Party puts forward." Matthews: "Thank you." O'Connor: "Whoever the Democratic Party puts forward." Matthews: "Thank you." NARRATOR: "Dishonest Danny lied about Pelosi. Now he's lying about Social Security and Medicare.

"O'Connor supports a Pelosi-backed plan that cuts Medicare spending by eight hundred billion. On August 7th, vote Troy Balderson. He'll protect Ohio seniors." The ad

THIS IS A GO-TO move for any Republican political organization. It didn't work on Conor Lamb, who won the election despite getting whacked for Pelosi. Lamb, however, publicly said he would not support Pelosi for speaker. O'Connor has been less firm on that.

ELENA SCHNEIDER in COLUMBUS: "Trump, Pelosi dominate Ohio special election" POLITICO

BLOOMBERG'S JOSH GREEN, "Can a Green Wave Turn the House Blue?": "[T]hey've caught a green wave of cash- the torrent of money pouring into Democratic campaign coffers helped 73 House candidates outraise Republican incumbents and opponents in races for open seats in the second quarter, a Bloomberg analysis of Federal Election Commission data shows. ... In the second quarter of this year, non-incumbent Democratic House candidates raised more than three times the amount they did in the same period in 2014. That works out to an average of $151,000 per candidate, compared with $101,000 in 2014." Bloomberg

Good Thursday morning. EYE-POPPING STAT, via Doug Sosnik: "In the next Congress, there will be at most only 45 senators who were in office before 2011. In the House, the turnover has been almost as dramatic. Next year, there will be at most 160 House members-barely a third of the body-who were elected before the 2010 midterms." POLITICO

IT'S BECOME a hobby for many Republicans on the Hill to try to guess what the president means when he talks publicly about immigration policy and a potential government shutdown. Some seem to be convinced that Trump will bend to GOP leaders, who would like an immigration fight after the election. Well, let's take a look at the most recent comments.

-- THE PRESIDENT called into Rush Limbaugh's show yesterday: "I say, 'Hey, if you have a shutdown, you have a shutdown.' Now, the shutdown could also take place after the election. I happen to think it's a great political thing ... One way or the other, it's getting done. But I'd be willing to do it. And you could do it before the election or after the election. ...

"I have to say that I have heard this theory. I happen to think it's a good thing politically. I'm not doing it for politics. I'm doing it because it's the right thing to do. So I'm not looking at politics. But I happen to think that border security would be a good thing before the election, but there are many people within our party that are good people that are like you that agree with you on everything you say.

"But they'd rather do it after. They don't agree on doing it before, and I accept their opinion, but I happen to think it would be a good thing to do before. I actually think we'd get more and there'd be more pressure on the other side, because we're doing it because the Democrats are not giving us the votes. ...

"Well, if you do it before, there's a lot more pressure to get a great solution. But it's riskier. If you do it afterwards, there's less pressure; there's less risk. I'm just not sure you'd make as good a deal. I will say a lot of people - good people - you know, would ask me in the nicest of ways, 'Could we do it after the election?' ... But whether it's before or after? But I actually think it's a great campaign issue. I think it would be great before. But I don't want to disappoint a lot of very good people that are working with me."

-- WHAT HILL REPUBLICANS don't seem to understand is that Trump believes an immigration showdown before the election would be good for him. His thinking, according to people who speak with him, is that he won an election that was centered on immigration policy, so it's a good issue to have front and center this fall. Furthermore, Trump is being pushed by aides who believe that he'll never have bigger numbers on the Hill than he does now, so he should push for the policies he wants immediately.

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FOR YOUR RADAR -- "Graham chairmanship would test Trump ties," by Burgess Everett and Elana Schor: "Lindsey Graham has painstakingly developed a chummy relationship with President Donald Trump - but he may soon be the Senate's point person on an issue that sharply divides them: immigration.

"The South Carolina Republican is in line to take over the Senate Judiciary Committee next year after a potential game of musical chairs in committee leadership. And though Graham's centrist leanings on immigration don't jibe with Trump's hard-line politics, his growing closeness to a president he once openly loathed may prove the best hope for reform in the Trump era." POLITICO

WHAT'S ON TRUMP'S MIND -- @realDonaldTrump at 12:47 a.m.: "Thank you to Chairman Kim Jong Un for keeping your word & starting the process of sending home the remains of our great and beloved missing fallen! I am not at all surprised that you took this kind action. Also, thank you for your nice letter - l look forward to seeing you soon!"

WHAT CAN GO WRONG ... CNN's RENE MARSH and ELI WATKINS: "TSA considering eliminating screening at smaller airports": "The Transportation Security Administration is considering eliminating passenger screening at more than 150 small and medium-sized airports across the US, according to senior agency officials and internal documents obtained by CNN. ... Internal documents from a TSA working group say the proposal to cut screening at small and some medium-sized airports serving aircraft with 60 seats or fewer could bring a 'small (non-zero) undesirable increase in risk related to additional adversary opportunity.'

"The internal documents from June and July suggest the move could save $115 million annually, money that could be used to bolster security at larger airports. ... CNN terrorism analyst Paul Cruickshank said it was 'stunning that this is even seriously being considered.' ...

"'This is so dangerous,' a TSA field leader at a large airport said. ... Two senior TSA officials, who asked not to be identified, expressed serious national security concerns over the proposal." CNN

MANAFORT, DAY 3: DARREN SAMUELSOHN emailed us this dispatch: "Day three picks up at 9:30 a.m. Thursday with testimony from two more Manafort vendors: Joel Maxwell, the head of an audio/video company based in Jupiter, Florida; and Michael Regolizio, who runs a landscaping company in the Hamptons. Mueller's prosecutors also said they plan to call Manafort's bookkeepers, including Heather Washkuhn, and his tax preparers.

"The special counsel's team told the court on Wednesday they may be ready to wrap up the government's side of the case at some point next week."

-- JOSH GERSTEIN and DARREN: "Special counsel Robert Mueller's team is hurtling through its tax- and bank-fraud case against former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort, with prosecutors predicting their case could wrap up as soon as next week. ...

"Wednesday's testimony from the parade of high-end suit sellers and contractors produced an intriguing revelation: in order to get Manafort's bills paid, someone repeatedly forged invoices. Real bills sent to Manafort were at some point converted to fake ones directed to various shell companies allegedly controlled by the longtime political operative.

"The first details on the apparent forgeries came from the manager of a luxury men's clothing boutique Manafort frequented, Alan Couture in New York. Seeking to establish just how expensive Manafort's tastes were, Mueller's team got Maximillian Katzman - the store's ex-manager and son of its owner - to certify that Manafort ran up bills of more than $900,000 between 2010 and 2014." POLITICO

-- KNOWING JUDGE T.S. ELLIS: "'This idiot judge?': Salty Manafort trial chief cracks wise and cracks down," by Darren Samuelsohn and Josh Gerstein: POLITICO

SPOTTED: Kellyanne Conway having lunch yesterday with ABC News' Chris Vlasto at Bombay Club ... Donald Trump Jr. huddling with Jerry Falwell Jr. in the Trump hotel lobby last night after they both attended a red carpet premiere of Dinesh D'Souza's new film "Death of a Nation."

THE TRUMP-MUELLER INTERVIEW -- "Mueller offers to limit investigators' questions for Trump in special counsel's latest effort to secure presidential interview," by WaPo's Carol D. Leonnig: "Special counsel Robert S. Mueller III indicated this week that he is willing to reduce the number of questions his investigators would pose to President Trump in an interview, renewing negotiations with Trump's lawyers about a presidential sit-down after an extended standoff, according to two people briefed on the negotiations. ...

"In a letter sent Monday, Mueller's team suggested that investigators would reduce the number of questions about potential obstruction of justice they would ask in person and instead seek some answers in written form, according to one person. The special counsel is still seeking to press Trump on topics related to obstruction, including some questions about the firing of then-FBI Director James B. Comey, but not as many as Mueller originally sought." WaPo

-- NYT'S MAGGIE HABERMAN and MIKE SCHMIDT: "Trump Pushes for Interview With Mueller Against Lawyers' Advice": "President Trump pushed his lawyers in recent days to try once again to reach an agreement with the special counsel's office about him sitting for an interview, flouting their advice that he should not answer investigators' questions, three people briefed on the matter said on Wednesday. Mr. Trump has told advisers he is eager to meet with investigators to clear himself of wrongdoing ...

"In effect, he believes he can convince the investigators for the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, of his belief that their own inquiry is a 'witch hunt.' ... The president's lawyers are unwilling to concede to follow-ups in person, citing concerns that Mr. Trump will increase his legal exposure ... They have been prepared to tell Mr. Mueller's office there will be no interview, risking a court fight over a subpoena that could drag into November's midterm elections, but Mr. Trump pushed them to continue negotiating. The lawyers are likely to counter Mr. Mueller's proposal in the coming days." NYT

-- "Mueller's Digging Exposes Culture of Foreign Lobbying and Its Big Paydays," by NYT's Mark Mazzetti and Katie Benner: "The vigor with which Mr. Mueller has investigated the flows of foreign money from Ukraine, Turkey and other countries into Washington could be as much a part of his legacy as special counsel as whatever he discovers about possible collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign or presidential obstruction of justice. ... The number of new primary FARA registrations grew to 102 in 2017 from 69 in 2016, and was on pace to rise again in 2018, according to figures from the Justice Department published by the law firm Holland & Knight." NYT

JIM JORDAN UPDATE -- "Former Ohio State wrestling coach urged Rep. Jim Jordan's accusers to recant, texts show," by NBC News' Corky Siemaszko: "Retired Ohio State wrestling coach Russ Hellickson reached out to two ex-team members and asked them to support their former assistant coach, Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, a day after they accused the powerful congressman of turning a blind eye to alleged sexual abuse by the team doctor, according to the wrestlers and text messages they shared with NBC News.

"The former wrestlers said their ex-coach made it clear to them he was under pressure from Jordan to get statements of support from members of the team. Hellickson's appeal to help Jordan came after the congressman repeatedly said that he had no idea that team doctor Richard Strauss was allegedly molesting the athletes - contradicting three wrestlers who told NBC News that Jordan must have known since the abuse was frequently discussed in the locker room.

"'I'm sorry you got caught up in the media train,' Hellickson wrote in a July 4 text to Dunyasha Yetts that the former wrestler shared with NBC News. 'If you think the story got told wrong about Jim, you could probably write a statement for release that tells your story and corrects what you feel bad about. I can put you in contact with someone who would release it.'" NBC


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2018 WATCH -- "Corporate donations are new test for Democratic candidates," by AP's Lisa Lerer: "Long considered a peripheral issue in midterm elections, money in politics is emerging as a new litmus test for Democratic candidates. In ads, stump speeches and debates, scores of politicians are pledging to reject corporate PAC donations.

"Their ranks include a handful of Democrats, including [Sen. Kamala] Harris, who are widely rumored to be exploring presidential bids: New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Joining them is Vermont's independent senator, Bernie Sanders.

"In total, more than federal 170 candidates have said they're not accepting corporate PAC donations, according to a tally by the group End Citizens United, a political action committee dedicated to campaign finance reform." AP

TRUMP'S THURSDAY -- The president is meeting this afternoon with Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.). He will then head to Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, for a roundtable and political rally. Trump will then head to Bedminster, New Jersey.

JOIN US -- Anna and Jake, along with California Playbooker Carla Marinucci, are heading to Los Angeles Aug. 16 at 8:30 a.m. for a Playbook Elections event featuring GAVIN NEWSOM, the Democratic candidate for governor, and California Republican Party Chairman JIM BRULTE. RSVP

PLAYBOOK READS


PHOTO DU JOUR: Vice President Mike Pence (left), Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Adm. Phil Davidson (center) and Rear Adm. Jon Kreitz, deputy director of the POW/MIA Accounting Agency, attend a ceremony marking the arrival of the remains believed to be of American service members who died in the Korean War at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii, on Wednesday. North Korea handed over the remains last week. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo

JUST POSTED - "Meghan McCain Isn't Afraid of a Fight: The View cohost on her father's cancer battle, the motto the McCains shares with Margaret Atwood, and the future of the GOP," by Mattie Kahn in the August issue of Glamour: "[S]he has come to treasure Joe Biden, who consoled her on live television for close to five viral minutes in December. ... 'I talk to him all the time, and he checks in on me all the time.' ... 'There is no manual to consult when it comes to dealing with a seriously ill parent,' as Biden puts it via email. 'But if there was, Meghan McCain would be the one to write it. ...

"Publicly she has been fierce as John's advocate, and privately her love and encouragement have sustained him. The way the entire McCain family has handled the cards they have been dealt is worthy of our admiration, and I know John is so incredibly proud of his daughter.'" Glamour

RUSSIA WATCH -- "As midterm elections approach, a growing concern that the nation is not protected from Russian interference," by WaPo's Ellen Nakashima and Craig Timberg: "Two years after Russia interfered in the American presidential campaign, the nation has done little to protect itself against a renewed effort to influence voters in the coming congressional midterm elections, according to lawmakers and independent analysts. They say that voting systems are more secure against hackers, thanks to action at the federal and state levels - and that the Russians have not targeted those systems to the degree they did in 2016.

"But Russian efforts to manipulate U.S. voters through misleading social media postings are likely to have grown more sophisticated and harder to detect, and there is not a sufficiently strong government strategy to combat information warfare against the United States, outside experts said. Despite Facebook's revelation this week that it had closed down 32 phony pages and profiles that were part of a coordinated campaign, technology companies in general have struggled to curb the flow of disinformation and hacking and have received little guidance from the U.S. government on how to do so." WaPo


REAL ESTATE WATCH -- "Ted Kennedy's Former Washington, D.C., Home Asks $22 Million," by WSJ's Katherine Clarke: "A sprawling Georgetown estate that was once home to Sen. Ted Kennedy is coming on the market for $22 million. Mr. Kennedy and his first wife, Joan Kennedy, rented the property, which is located in the East Village area of Georgetown, some time after his election to the Senate in the 1960s ... The home has nine bedrooms and 10 bathrooms. ... There are two garages that could accommodate a car collection and a media room." With 9 pix. WSJ

-- "On the Market: Katharine Graham's Summer Estate for $39.5 Million," by WSJ's Katherine Clarke: "A large portion of a Martha's Vineyard estate formerly owned by the late Washington Post publisher Katharine Graham is coming on the market for $39.5 million. The sprawling 186-acre beachfront property overlooks James Pond, Buzzards Bay and the Elizabeth Islands. ... The house on the property is roughly 5,000 square feet with eight bedrooms. It has a large covered deck for dining with views of the ocean and a large kitchen for entertaining." With a pic. WSJ

MEDIAWATCH -- "White House briefings grow rare under Trump: July's three briefings, during which the press secretary took questions for a combined 56 minutes, tied a low for any month during the Trump presidency," by Jason Schwartz: "That represented a downslope from June, when the White House held five press briefings, after nine in May, eight in April, nine in March, nine in February and 11 in January.

"The only other month in which the administration held as few as three briefings was August 2017, when Trump spent much of his time away from the White House at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey." POLITICO

-- PER MORNING MEDIA: "The Los Angeles Times was on the verge of losing its Washington bureau if Tronc hadn't sold the paper. But now the Times is staffing up, with Del Wilber, most recently at the Wall Street Journal, rejoining the paper to write enterprise stories on criminal justice and national security. Also, Jennifer Haberkorn, who covered politics and policy of healthcare for POLITICO, is heading to the bureau to cover Congress."
PLAYBOOKERS
REMEMBERING MICHAEL SHEEHAN -- WaPo's Matt Schudel: "Michael A. Sheehan, who led counterterrorism efforts around the globe with the United Nations, State Department and New York City Police Department and later, as a top Defense Department official, directed the country's Special Operations forces and drone programs, died July 30 at a military hospital in Bethesda, Md. He was 63. The cause was multiple myeloma, said his wife, Sita Graham Vasan. ... In 2000, almost a year before the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Mr. Sheehan raised alarms about Osama bin Laden and the dangers of al-Qaeda. 'What's it going to take to get them to hit al-Qaeda?' he reportedly asked at the time. 'Does
al-Qaeda have to attack the Pentagon?'" WaPo

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Matthew Rosenberg, NYT national security correspondent and a CNN national security analyst. What he's been reading recently: "I just finished 'Killers of the Flower Moon: The Osage Murders and the Birth of the FBI,' by David Grann. It's about how the FBI solved a string of high-profile murders of wealthy Native Americans in the 1920s, but missed what was really happening. Now I've moved on to 'Less,' by Andrew Sean Greer, a hilarious novel about a writer who plots a trip around the world to avoid the wedding of his ex." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: AP alum Tom Raum is 74 ... Laura Nasim (hat tip: Mercedes Schlapp) ... former Sen. Paul Laxalt (R-Nev.) is 96 ... New Yorker staff writer Lawrence Wright ... Stephen Cox, deputy associate attorney general, is 41 (h/t Jay Nordlinger) ... Patrick Ruffini, partner and co-founder of Echelon Insights, is 4-0 ... Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) is 61 ... Rich Edson of Fox News ... Hearst Television's Eric Meyrowitz ... Kristin Carvell Hardwick of GE ... Gigi Sohn, distinguished fellow at the Georgetown Law Institute for Technology Law and Policy (h/t Shannon Gilson, filing from Florida) ... former Treasury Secretary John Snow is 79 ... PSI's Kate Roberts ... Benton Ives is 42 ... Corporate
Accountability International's Gigi Kellett is 4-0 ... former Rep. Dan Boren (D-Okla.) is 45 ... former Rep. Nancy Boyda (D-Kan.) is 63 ... former Del. Ron De Lugo (D-VI) is 88 ... Peter Mihalick is 36 (h/t Walt Roberts) ... Emily Gershon ... Sarah Bittleman ... Colleen Gallagher ... Camille Gallo ... Caitlin Huey-Burns of Real Clear Politics ... Hayley Brower, LC for Sen. Heller (h/t dad, Greg) ... David Eiselsberg ...

... Jeff Ballou (h/t Tim Burger) ... Seng Peng ... Kevin Walling is 33 (h/ts John McCarthy and Anne Schroeder) ... Nick Ballas of American Crossroads/Senate Leadership Fund (h/t Cailin Kearns) ... Austin Laufersweiler, press secretary for Let America Vote, is 27 (h/t Mitchell Rivard) ... MPAA's Arlen Valdivia ... Daniele Baierlein (h/t Jon Haber) ... Michelle White, Nevada state director for For Our Future and HFA alum (h/t Tim Hogan) ... Dave Mills ... Paul Cheshire ... Vonda Marrow ... Michael Manganiello ... Gil Duran, co-founder of FrameLab Communications ... Brian D. Montgomery ... Brynn Barnett ... Sim Khan ... Dan Burrows ... Jennifer Streaks ... Sean Butler is 53 ... Bryce Dustman
... Melissa Leebaert ... David Hunter ... Vicki Seyfert ... Brendan O'Sullivan ... Ann Kelly (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)

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