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Presented by AARP: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Washington Aug 16, 2018 View in browser
By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer, Daniel Lippman and Eli Okun

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JUST HAPPENED ... MSNBC'S CRAIG MELVIN aired audio of a conversation between OMAROSA MANIGAULT NEWMAN and LARA TRUMP, the president's daughter-in-law, where they discussed a $15,000-a-month salary to work for the campaign -- but Trump told her that she'd have to keep everything positive.

-- THE CONVERSATION followed a Maggie Haberman NYT article in which Manigault Newman indicated she'd have a lot to say after leaving the White House.

-- THE LINE THAT MIGHT HAUNT THE WHITE HOUSE: "There are things I'm going to save to share when the time is right."

-- MANIGAULT NEWMAN TO MELVIN: "She made it very clear that if I joined this campaign that I would have to be quiet. ... I saw this as an attempt to buy my silence, to censor me and to pay me off, $15,000 per month by the campaign."

-- MELVIN: "You saw this as hush money."

-- MANIGAULT NEWMAN: "Absolutely."

-- AND AT THE END OF THE INTERVIEW: "I'm going to go toe-to-toe with him. Everything he throws at me. Believe me, my tapes are much better than theirs."

JUST POSTED ... FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH ... FIVETHIRTYEIGHT'S HOUSE FORECAST: FiveThirtyEight ... DEMS have a 75.4% chance of winning the House in November, with an average gain of 35 seats. But the middle 80% of outcomes in the probability distribution ranges from a 14-seat Democratic gain -- which would keep the chamber in GOP hands -- to a major 58-seat wave.

NICE THIS TIME OF YEAR! ... BOSTON GLOBE'S TRAVIS ANDERSON: "Michael Avenatti is coming to N.H. this weekend": "In a statement, the party in New Hampshire confirmed Avenatti 'will attend the Hillsborough County Democrats' Summer Picnic in Greenfield, NH. Several top Democratic elected officials and candidates will also be in attendance.'

"[Democratic] officials dubbed the event the 'Hillsborough County Democrat's Summer Picnic with Michael Avenatti' and said proceeds would 'contribute to Hillsborough County efforts to elect Democrats up and down the ballot.'" The Globe

-- "Dems Test Iowa's 'He's Running' Tagline: There has been a noticeable uptick in Democrats visiting Iowa with no apparent presidential plans," by National Journal's Hanna Trudo: National Journal

Good Thursday afternoon. @AP: "BREAKING: Publicist for Aretha Franklin says the Queen of Soul died Thursday at her home in Detroit."

-- PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP at 11:36 a.m.: "The Queen of Soul, Aretha Franklin, is dead. She was a great woman, with a wonderful gift from God, her voice. She will be missed!"

TRUMP at the Cabinet meeting: "I want to begin today by expressing my condolences to the family of a person I knew well. She worked for me on numerous occasions. She was terrific - Aretha Franklin - on her passing. She's brought joy to millions of lives and her extraordinary legacy will thrive and inspire many generations to come. She was given a great gift from God - her voice, and she used it well. People loved Aretha. She was a special woman. So just want to pass on my warmest best wishes and sympathies to her family."

JAKE, ANNA and CARLA MARINUCCI are live in Los Angeles talking midterms and California politics with Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and state GOP Chairman Jim Brulte. Watch here

-- NEXT UP ... ANNA and JAKE will sit down with SEN. BOB CASEY (D-PA.) and PHILADELPHIA GOP CHAIR MICHAEL MEEHAN ... The morning of Aug. 31 in Philadelphia. RSVP

CNBC'S AMANDA MACIAS: "Trump's military parade is now estimated to cost $92 million - $80 million more than earlier estimate": "President Donald Trump's military parade this fall is shaping up to cost $80 million more than initially estimated.

"The Department of Defense and its interagency partners have updated their perspective cost estimates for the parade, according to a U.S. defense official with firsthand knowledge of the assessment. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity.

"The parade, slated for Nov. 10, is estimated to cost $92 million, the official said. The figure includes $50 million from the Pentagon and $42 million from interagency partners such as the Department of Homeland Security. An initial estimate last month pegged the prospective cost for the parade at $12 million." CNBC

A message from AARP:

Join POLITICO Playbook co-authors, Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman, and Playbook California author, Carla Marinucci, for a Playbook Elections event in California to discuss the 2018 midterms on Aug. 16, 2018 at 8:30 a.m. at the InterContinental Los Angeles Downtown. This event is part of the POLITICO-AARP series, "The Deciders."

THE MANAFORT TRIAL, DAY 13 -- "Jury deliberations begin, verdict timing unknown," by Darren Samuelsohn, Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney: "U.S. District Court Judge T.S. Ellis III sent the 12-person jury off with a lengthy list of instructions on how they are to weigh reams of evidence and testimony ... 'You may deliberate as long or as little as you like,' Ellis told the jurors before he officially impaneled them. 'Your deliberation is entirely up to you.'

"A court security official who briefed reporters later Thursday morning said the jury can work as long as they want each day, even beyond the 5:30 p.m. end time they've typically had. The official said a verdict will be read in court immediately after its reached - even if it comes after hours. Any questions the jurors have for the judge will also be read in open court." POLITICO

WHAT ELSE IS ON TRUMP'S MIND -- @realDonaldTrump at 8:43 a.m.: "Our Economy is doing better than ever. Money is pouring into our cherished DOLLAR like rarely before, companies earnings are higher than ever, inflation is low & business optimism is higher than it has ever been. For the first time in many decades, we are protecting our workers!"

... at 8:50 a.m.: "THE FAKE NEWS MEDIA IS THE OPPOSITION PARTY. It is very bad for our Great Country....BUT WE ARE WINNING!"

... at 10 a.m.: "The Boston Globe, which was sold to the the Failing New York Times for 1.3 BILLION DOLLARS (plus 800 million dollars in losses & investment), or 2.1 BILLION DOLLARS, was then sold by the Times for 1 DOLLAR. Now the Globe is in COLLUSION with other papers on free press. PROVE IT!"

... at 10:10 a.m.: "There is nothing that I would want more for our Country than true FREEDOM OF THE PRESS. The fact is that the Press is FREE to write and say anything it wants, but much of what it says is FAKE NEWS, pushing a political agenda or just plain trying to hurt people. HONESTY WINS!"

-- NOTE: More than 300 newspapers are publishing editorials this week advocating press freedom in the face of the president's repeated attacks. The Boston Globe coordinated the effort. The Globe editorial ... The Dallas Morning News ... The Journal and Tioga Tribune in North Dakota ... But not the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette or the Capital Gazette

-- BUT, BUT, BUT: After addressing reporters at a Cabinet meeting press spray today, Trump told them, "If you'd like, you can stay. If you'd like, you can leave ... freedom of the press," per pooler Tarini Parti of BuzzFeed.

-- SESSIONS AND TRUMP AGREE! ... TARINI PARTI: "After Sessions briefed the cabinet on opioids, Trump asked him to bring a federal lawsuit against certain companies supplying opioids rather than just joining state lawsuits. He also asked Sessions to look into opioids coming from China and Mexico, saying those countries were 'sending their garbage and killing our people.' 'It's almost a form of warfare,' he said. Sessions agreed. And Trump responded: 'I'd be very very firm on that. It's a disgrace and we can stop it.'"

-- TRUMP ADDED ON NAFTA: "If we don't have a breakthrough, don't do the deal."

BIG MEDIA MOVE: DYLAN BYERS is leaving CNN to join NBC as a senior media reporter.

JASON SCHWARTZ: "Pentagon punishes reporters over tough coverage": "When reporters raised issues like vanishing access to Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and other top officials, Dana White pushed back by criticizing the accuracy of press corps members' reporting. She made clear, according to the reporters present, that she was watching what they wrote and put on-air - with the implication that there would be repercussions for stories she and her staff did not like.

"White and the Pentagon's press operation have already restricted access to briefings, interviews and travel with Mattis. But in recent weeks, several reporters said that they increasingly feel as though individual journalists are being retaliated against for stories they've written, losing yet more access. In one case this spring, officials pulled away a reporter's plum opportunity to embed with U.S. troops overseas following a story they found too critical." POLITICO

HEADLINES THE PRESIDENT WILL LIKE ... "Stocks Jump on Signs China's Tired of Losing the Trade War," by Bloomberg's Luke Kawa: Bloomberg

2018 WATCH -- "No Matter Who Becomes Arizona's Next Senator, Trump Has Already Won," by Time's Phil Elliott in Black Canyon City, Arizona: "In a sense, [Martha] McSally embodied the fading Republican hope that Trump would not consume the party, and that lawmakers could speak out against the President without paying a price at the polls.

"Instead, she may become a cautionary tale. McSally's lead has softened as right-wing voters have appeared to flee from Arpaio and consolidate around Ward. Seeing her advantage slide, McSally has both lowered her campaign profile and doubled-down on her awkward embrace of Trump." Time

-- "Dean Heller wants his re-election fight to be 'the race.' He may get his wish," by the Washington Examiner's Al Weaver in Reno, Nevada: "The Nevada senator is the only incumbent Republican facing a real fight in November, hailing from a purple state and a regular top target of Democrats. Yet, he remains confident, maintaining he wouldn't trade places with others in competitive races less than three months until his face-off with Rep. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., as Democrats pin their hopes of retaking the Senate on defeating him." Washington Examiner

-- NYT'S MICHAEL TACKETT in LEXINGTON, KENTUCKY, on ANDY BARR versus AMY MCGRATH: Quote that might stick ... "'We both served our country,' Mr. Barr said. 'I've served in a position where ideas matter. My opponent has served her country in the military, where execution matters.'" NYT

AP'S BRIAN SLODYSKO: "Inside a super PAC that spends on everything but winning": "The two billionaire mega donors poured $1.25 million into a super PAC that was supposed to supercharge Chris McDaniel's insurgent bid to be Mississippi's next Republican senator.

"A year later, much of the money from Illinois shipping supply CEO Richard Uihlein and New York financier Robert Mercer is gone. Only a fraction was spent reaching voters who could boost the former state lawmaker's uphill battle against Cindy Hyde-Smith ... What the Remember Mississippi super PAC has provided, however, is a generous payday for at least 18 campaign consultants who received the lion's share of the money, according to an analysis of [FEC] records.

"Since a landmark 2010 Supreme Court ruling, much of the debate over super PACs has focused on how a wealthy cadre of donors can now give unlimited amounts, allowing them to play an outsized role in who gets elected. This case highlights how that money doesn't always get spent the way it's intended." AP

A message from AARP:


Learn more about the 2018 midterm cycle and issues shaping the races with the Playbook Elections event in California on Aug. 16, 2018.

KNOWING CHRISTOPHER WRAY -- "Wray Tries to Steer FBI in Calm Path Through Political Storm," by WSJ's Del Quentin Wilber and Sadie Gurman: "FBI Director Christopher Wray has spent the past year focusing his agents on the nitty-gritty of their jobs and avoiding the distractions from controversies buffeting the agency. A key part of that effort, Mr. Wray said, has been to lead by example-keeping his head down and his opinions to himself. ...

"Some agents have described Mr. Wray's style as so low-key that employees aren't always sure of his expectations.

"Others said it has served the bureau well as it faces intense political pressure from its handling of high-profile investigations." WSJ

SCOTUS WATCH -- E&E NEWS' GEOF KOSS (@geofkoss): "Murkowski to meet with Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh next week."

THE NEVER TRUMPERS -- "These Prominent Republicans Backed Hillary Clinton Over Donald Trump - And Now They Don't Know Where To Turn," by BuzzFeed's Henry Gomez: "BuzzFeed News recently reached out to many of these Republicans for Hillary. Most of those who responded remain unsatisfied with Trump. But they are not optimistic about the feasibility of a Republican primary challenge, and many are not prepared to get behind another Democrat.

"Many also are waiting on two developments: the November midterms and the completion of special counsel Robert Mueller's probe into Russian interference in the 2016 elections. The results of both could further weaken Trump's presidency and his bid for a second term." With cameos by Dick Armitage, Doug Elmets, Frank Lavin, Christine Todd Whitman and Larry Pressler: BuzzFeed

ON THE WORLD STAGE -- "Iranians vent anger at Trump as the wheels come off their economy," by CNN's Nick Paton Walsh, Shirzad Bozorgmehr and Salma Abdelaziz in Tehran: "While economic hardships have led to sporadic protests across Iran over the past eight months, it is far from clear that this new U.S. approach is undermining Rouhani's comparatively moderate administration. In fact, many Iranians we spoke to -- with a government-appointed translator sometimes present -- said they blame Trump for Iran's turmoil, rather than their own officials. ...

"Worse is yet to come when US sanctions against the oil industry, which is behind about a fifth of Iran's gross domestic product, kick in during early November. The question is whether the blunt instruments employed by the Trump administration change the political calculus in Iranian heads at all." CNN

-- AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE'S ANDREW BEATTY (@AndrewBeatty): "#BREAKING @AFP Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says more sanctions coming if Turkey does not release American pastor quickly."

ALEX GUILLEN and EMILY HOLDEN: "Fuzzy math could doom Trump's attack on Obama climate rule": POLITICO

TOP-ED -- JOHN BRENNAN in NYT: "President Trump's Claims of No Collusion Are Hogwash": "The only questions that remain are whether the collusion that took place constituted criminally liable conspiracy, whether obstruction of justice occurred to cover up any collusion or conspiracy, and how many members of 'Trump Incorporated' attempted to defraud the government by laundering and concealing the movement of money into their pockets. ...

"Mr. Trump clearly has become more desperate to protect himself and those close to him, which is why he made the politically motivated decision to revoke my security clearance in an attempt to scare into silence others who might dare to challenge him." NYT

SPOTTED: Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) at a Young Professionals in Foreign Policy happy hour Wednesday night at Hawthorne.

SPOTTED: SEC Chair Jay Clayton spotted having lunch with his chief of staff at The Monocle.

TRANSITIONS -- The Commission on Presidential Scholars has named several commissioners: Eileen Weiser as chair, Sally Atwater, Sydney Chaffee, Tina Holland, Darla Romfo and Cardinal Donald Wuerl. ... Chris Hartline is now working on communications for Florida Gov. Rick Scott's Senate campaign. He's an alum of Rep. Diane Black's (R-Tenn.) Budget Committee staff and gubernatorial campaign.

MEDIAWATCH -- Prashant Rao will be The Atlantic's global editor, based in London. He is currently NYT deputy Europe business editor.

BONUS BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Steve Demby, shareholder, and past executive committee member, for Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck. What he's been reading recently: "'The Warburgs' by Ron Chernow, a recent reprint of a 25-year-old book. It's thought provoking in that it deals with a powerful family and larger group of people that didn't recognize the threat to their lives and liberties until it was too late." Playbook Plus Q&A

A message from AARP:


The Playbook Elections event in California on Aug. 16, 2018 will feature interviews with candidates and party leaders on issues that matter most to voters.

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Anna Palmer @apalmerdc

Jake Sherman @JakeSherman

Daniel Lippman @dlippman

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