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The Evening CSIS: The Battle Begins, Duterte's Pivot, Highway 61 & More
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** Good Evening,
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Welcome to
The Evening CSIS—my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day plus HIGHLY RECOMMENDED content from around the world. To subscribe, please sign up here (http://bit.ly/ecs1s) .


** The Battle Begins
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The fight to liberate Mosul from Islamic State control has begun, with Iraqi and Kurdish forces advancing on the city in what Defense Secretary Ash Carter called a “decisive moment” in the fight to dislodge the Islamic State. Michael R. Gordon and Tim Arango have the story in today’s New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/17/world/middleeast/iraq-isis-mosul-battle.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news) . Babak Dehghanpisheh and Ahmed Rasheed of Reuters have the latest (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-mosul-idUSKBN12G0Z1) .

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Anthony Cordesman outlines the stakes in a new commentary (https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-%E2%80%9Cwinning%E2%80%9D-mosul-be-%E2%80%9Closing%E2%80%9D) authored today.

In graphics from the New York Times: How Iraq Plans to Take (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/17/world/middleeast/iraq-mosul-isis-map.html) Back Mosul from ISIS (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/17/world/middleeast/iraq-mosul-isis-map.html) .


** Duterte's Pivot
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Rodrigo Duterte is headed to Beijing on a state visit as he attempts to balance the Philippines’ relationship with the US and China, Jane Perlez of the
New York Times reports (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/18/world/asia/rodrigo-duterte-philippines-china-us.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss) from Beijing. He’s been quoted in Chinese state-run media (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-10/17/c_135760893.htm) as saying that in some cases “only China can help us.”

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s all things Asia blog CogitAsia previews (http://cogitasia.com/duterte-bets-beijing-visit-will-reset-the-philippines-difficult-china-relations/) what Duterte will be looking for in his China trip.

And from the South China Morning Post: Why Duterte’s Leaving Behind His Jet Ski on His Trip to China (http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2028169/why-dutertes-leaving-behind-his-jet-ski-his-trip-china) .


** Ready for Launch
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CSIS’s Todd Harrison will be heading up the newly formed Aerospace Security Project at CSIS. This research effort will cover space security, the future of air and missile forces, as well as commercial and civil space programs. Check it out here (https://www.csis.org/programs/international-security-program/aerospace-security-project) , and if you’re in DC, sign up for the launch event (https://www.csis.org/events/us-military-and-commercial-space-industry) next Monday.


** In That Number
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** 40
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The number of people being monitored by Indonesian authorities after having fought in Syria and returned to Indonesia. Source: Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-indonesia-security-idUSKBN12H16A) .


** Critical Quote
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** “The North Koreans will get it right sooner or later, so we’d better be ready.”
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— CSIS’s Tom Karako on North Korea’s resolve to perfect their intermediate and long-range missiles, regardless of their failed launch over the weekend. Source: Business Insider’s Amanda Macias (http://www.businessinsider.com/experts-discuss-north-korean-launch-2016-10) .


** One to Watch
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Sarah Watson (@SWatson_CSIS (https://twitter.com/swatson_csis) ) is an associate fellow in CSIS’s Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies. Today Sarah authored a new commentary, “The Limits of China’s Influence in Pakistan (https://www.csis.org/analysis/limits-china-influence-pakistan) .”


** Optics
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(Photo credit: Safin Hamed/AFP/Getty Images.)

Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga fighters deploy on the top of Mount Zardak, about 25 kilometers east of Mosul, as they take part in an operation today against ISIS.


** Highly Recommended
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“The Populist Explosion: How the great recession transformed American and European politics (https://www.amazon.com/Populist-Explosion-Recession-Transformed-American/dp/0997126442) ” by John B. Judis.


** CSIS Today
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CSIS’s Proliferation Prevention Program hosted “Fukushima After 2047 Days: Current Revitalization on the Ground (https://www.csis.org/events/fukushima-after-2047-days-current-revitalization-ground) ” with the Honorable Masao Uchibori, governor of Japan’s Fukushima prefecture.


** CSIS Tomorrow
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Join CSIS’s International Security Program at 10:00 a.m. for “Implementing Innovation Series: A Look at Using Public-Private Partnerships to Invest in Defense Infrastructure (https://www.csis.org/events/implementing-innovation-series-look-using-public-private-partnerships-invest-defense) ,” featuring Richard J. Danzig, former secretary of the navy.

And join CSIS’s International Security Program at 10:00 a.m. for a Maritime Security Dialogue with Admiral Kurt Tidd (https://www.csis.org/events/maritime-security-dialogue-admiral-kurt-tidd) .

Join CSIS’s Simon Chair in Political Economy at 2:30 p.m. for “An Evolving IMF (https://www.csis.org/events/evolving-imf) ,” a conversation with Under Secretary of the Treasury Nathan Sheets.


** This Town Tomorrow
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Join Johns Hopkins SAIS at 9:00 a.m. for “The Future of Global Jihadism: A Discussion with Peter Bergen (http://www.sais-jhu.edu/events-calendar?trumbaEmbed=view%3Devent%26eventid%3D207277082) .”

Join the Wilson Center at 10:00 a.m. for “The Evolution of U.S.-Mexico Military Cooperation (https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the-evolution-us-mexico-military-cooperation) .”

And join the Middle East Institute at 12:00 p.m. for “Saudi Vision 2030: Opportunities and Challenges (http://mei.edu/events/saudi-vision-2030-opportuities-and-challenges) ,” featuring CSIS’s Anthony Cordesman.


** CSIS On Demand
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Philippine foreign secretary Perfecto Yasay spoke at CSIS last month to discuss Philippine foreign policy under President Rodrigo Duterte and developments in the Asia-Pacific region. Catch up on Secretary Yasay’s remarks on demand here (https://www.csis.org/events/philippines-csis-forum-foreign-secretary-perfecto-yasay-jr) .


** Sounds
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Building the Future has a new podcast with General Michael Hayden (https://www.csis.org/podcasts/building-future-freedom-prosperity-and-foreign-policy-dan-runde) , former director of the NSA and former director of the CIA. General Hayden discusses his new book
Playing to the Edge and the link between national security and development.


** I Like It Like That
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You can now preorder Bob Dylan’s “The 1966 Live Recordings (https://www.amazon.com/1966-Live-Recordings-Bob-Dylan/dp/B01LXC8X05/) ” box set on Amazon—scheduled for release on November 11.


** Smiles
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The Watkins Family Hour is a super group of American roots rockers that never fails to make me smile. I’ve been thinking about them a bunch since Bob Dylan was awarded the Nobel Prize for literature last week. The members of Watkins, like so many modern recording artists simply couldn’t exist if Dylan hadn’t come before them.

Take the founders of the band, neo-folkies Sara and Sean Watkins, who are as much Dylan’s children as any musicians working today with their carefully cultivated heartland twang.

And then there is the extremely literary Fiona Apple who’s most famous solo recording is known as “When the Pawn…” because the actual whole title is:

“When the Pawn Hits the Conflicts He Thinks like a King What He Knows Throws the Blows When He Goes to the Fight and He'll Win the Whole Thing 'fore He Enters the Ring There's No Body to Batter When Your Mind Is Your Might so When You Go Solo, You Hold Your Own Hand and Remember That Depth Is the Greatest of Heights and If You Know Where You Stand, Then You Know Where to Land and If You Fall It Won't Matter, Cuz You'll Know That You're Right.”

Last January, Watkins got together to perform Dylan’s masterpiece “Highway 61 Revisited (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UyIUROTxK4) ” in its entirety at Lincoln Center. They even brought in Al Kooper who famously was part of the “Highway 61” recording sessions. I’ve included the entire performance (it’s that much of a smile) but I think my favorite part of it is the opening number with Fiona Apple singing “Tombstone Blues.”


** Feedback
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I always welcome and benefit from your feedback. Please drop me a line at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org)

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The Evening CSIS is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Colm Quinn, Brandon Schwartz, Jackie Ramsay, and James Dunton.

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