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POLITICO POLITICO's Morning Score, May 19, 2010 5:38 am
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Three strikes: Sestak and Paul win, Halter close - Critz crushes Burns, claims special - Orson Swindle endorsing Simmons - Elleithee helping Blumenthal - Chandler delivers for ConwayBy: Alexander Burns
Wed 19, 2010 05:38 AM EST

SURPRISE MARGIN -- WHERE'S THE WAVE? Pennsylvania Democrat Mark Critz scored a shockingly wide victory over Republican Tim Burns in the special election for the late Rep. John Murtha's House seat, leading Burns by a 53 percent to 45 percent margin after public polls showed the race effectively tied. 'The voters of this district won a great victory tonight,' Critz said at a victory celebration, according to the Johnstown Tribune Democrat. 'But it's ... bittersweet, because we wouldn't be here right now if Jack Murtha hadn't left us too soon.'

WHY IT MATTERS: For Democrats who've struggled to argue that the dynamics of 2010 are more complicated than an anti-Democratic revolt, that the right combination of message and muscle can still win -- this is the one they've been waiting for. The party and its allies poured energy into Critz's win, making 123,977 volunteer phone calls, knocking on 111,958 doors, deploying Bill Clinton and spending millions on ads, all in a district where President Obama's approval rating is in the 30 percent range. In an e-mail to Score, the DCCC's Jennifer Crider said there's more where that came from: 'Critz won PA-12 with a message of creating jobs and stopping the outsourcing of American jobs. Republican Tim Burns lost by nationalizing his message and focusing almost exclusively on national leaders, rather than on the issues important to district. Democrats will continue to make the 2010 elections about this choice between Democrats being for the middle class and Republicans being for Wall Street special interests.'

As Sarah Palin heads to Idaho, Orson Swindle torches Dick Blumenthal and Arlen Specter exits stage left, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections.

THE SENATE SIDE -- THREE STRIKES: Insurgent candidates plowed to victory across the country last night, ousting a five-term senator, forcing another into a runoff and defeating Mitch McConnell's home-state favorite. None of the day's top races was even close. Pennsylvania Rep. Joe Sestak defeated Sen. Arlen Specter in their state's Democratic primary by eight percentage points. Kentucky insurgent Rand Paul defeated Secretary of State Trey Grayson for the GOP Senate nod by a 23-point margin. And in Arkansas, Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln fell more than five points short of the 50-percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff, and heads into a head-to-head with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter on June 8.

RESULTS TICKER: Paul Kanjorski below 50, survives primary challenge ... Tim Holden overcomes health care primary by 30 ... Pa. Dems tap Dan Onorato for gov ... Altmire foe Mary Beth Buchanan flops ... It's John Kitzhaber vs. Chris Dudley in Oregon ... Dems Wooldridge, Causey in AR-01 runoff ... Tim Griffin cruises in AR-02. Full returns and election maps here.

FIVE THINGS WE KNOW NOW: (1) The tea party has teeth -- it propelled Paul to victory and helped Todd Lally win the GOP primary in KY-03 by a massive margin. (2) So does the left, even in Arkansas. (3) President Obama can't singlehandedly save a flawed incumbent. (4) Health care reform can't singlehandedly sink a Democratic campaign. (5) Arlen Specter, who immediately vowed to support Sestak's fall campaign, can play nice.

FIVE THINGS WE STILL DON'T KNOW: (1) Who will keep spending in Arkansas. (2) How D.C. Morrison, the third Dem in that state's Senate race, drew 13 percent of the vote. (3) Whether Grayson and defeated Kentucky Dem Dan Mongiardo will make up with their primary rivals. (4) Whether Critz -- or a candidate like him -- can win without running from the health care law. (5) How publicly Jim Bunning will gloat over his Senate endorsee beating McConnell's.

POLITICO SNEAK PEEK -- TARGETED: After spending months targeting Specter for defeat, the NRSC test-drives a message against Sestak Wednesday morning with a web video tagging him as 'way too liberal.' The video's narrator asks: 'Just how liberal is Joe Sestak? So liberal that the chairman of his own party called winning the primary 'cataclysmic' for November ... Sestak votes with Pelosi and the Democrats 98 percent of the time.' That's an attack line NRSC Chairman John Cornyn previewed in an interview with POLITICO's Carol Lee Tuesday, calling Sestak 'the complete package when it comes to voting with Nancy Pelosi on a lot of stuff that's going to be very unpopular and represents a lot of the overreach that people are pushing back against in Pennsylvania and around the country, in terms of spending and debt, the bailouts, you name it - the health care bill.' Watch the NRSC video here.DELIVERING: On a night when once-legendary political machines failed Specter and Grayson, Rep. Ben Chandler and the Kentucky Democratic establishment came through for state Attorney General Jack Conway, who won his party's Senate nomination by a single percentage point. 'Ben put a lot of effort into helping Jack. They have a very strong friendship that goes on back for several years,' said a strategist close to Chandler. 'Conway will be in a stronger position to beat Rand Paul, than Mongiardo will, simply because Jack has shown an incredible amount of strength in Jefferson County. The way the state breaks out now, for a Democrat to win the state, you have to carry Jefferson County significantly.'

DROPPING TODAY -- SCORE EXCLUSIVE: A day after Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal held a defiant press conference to respond to a New York Times report that he'd misled voters about his activities in the Vietnam War, Republican Senate hopeful Rob Simmons will pick up the endorsement of Orson Swindle, the decorated Vietnam veteran and former prisoner of war who was a prominent supporter of John McCain's presidential campaigns. Swindle will call Simmons 'honorable, intelligent and dedicated,' and TEAR into Blumenthal for making misleading statements that falsely suggested he served in combat.

MORE -- FROM HIS STATEMENT: 'Having experienced Vietnam as I did and having had the honor of meeting and befriending literally thousands of real Vietnam veterans, I find the Attorney General's distortion of his Marine Corps experience totally offensive and disgusting. He does not deserve to be in public service, much less the U.S. Senate. As a career Marine Corps combat veteran, I am particularly offended by the Attorney General.

REALITY CHECK: Democrats praised Blumenthal's forceful news conference Tuesday, but the prosecutor has, at best, bought himself a small amount of time to show that his campaign won't be wrecked by the Vietnam issue. He'll have help mounting a rescue operation: POLITICO's Maggie Haberman reports Dem communications pro Mo Elleithee was on hand for Blumenthal's statement yesterday afternoon.

ON THE UP SIDE: One man who could have made life VERY uncomfortable for Blumenthal, Joe Lieberman, appears to be giving him some breathing room. Said Lieberman spokesman Marshall Wittman: 'Senator Lieberman accepts Attorney General Blumenthal's statement of regret over his past comments about Viet Nam and believes that the Attorney General should be judged on his entire record.'

POLL OF THE DAY -- BUCK PASSING? Conservative activists have indicated that they're hoping for a repeat of Rand Paul's upset primary victory in the Colorado Senate race, and a Public Policy Polling survey suggests grassroots favorite Ken Buck, the Weld County DA, is on the upswing against former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton. Norton leads Buck by only five points in the poll, besting him 31 percent to 26 percent.

YESTERDAY -- SHOULD'VE SAVED THE DATE: Ohio Lt. Gov. and Senate candidate Lee Fisher skipped President Obama's economic pep talk in Youngstown Tuesday, citing 'private meetings' that he 'couldn't reschedule.' It's the second time Fisher's missed a presidential appearance in Ohio -- prompting the NRSC to jab his 'frequent and convenient 'scheduling conflicts.''

COMING THIS AFTERNOON: DNC Chairman Tim Kaine speaks at 12:30 p.m. at the National Press Club, where he'll outline his party's strategy for 2010 and trumpet the results from last night's Pennsylvania special and spotlight the GOP primary election in Kentucky. Sharp contrasts expected.

SENATE:

CALIFORNIA: The NRA sent a bright orange mailer to voters over the weekend urging them to vote for someone other than former Rep. Tom Campbell in the upcoming Senate primary -- in order to 'protect your gun rights and hunting heritage in California.' The group hasn't endorsed a favorite candidate, but has given 'A' ratings to both former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and state Assemblyman Chuck DeVore.

FLORIDA: Independent Gov. Charlie Crist will address the state AFL-CIO conference this weekend, giving him an audience with a powerful interest group that could choose to be more friendly or less friendly to his campaign. Also expected at the event: Democrat Kendrick Meek, who won the coalition's support in his party's Senate primary election.

MORE FLORIDA: Billionaire Jeff Greene unveiled the first ad of his new campaign for the Democratic Senate nomination, featuring Greene looking directly into the camera and criticizing 'career politicians who are only worried about their own jobs.'
NEW YORK: Orange County Executive Ed Diana, a Republican who had publicly contemplated a challenge to Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, announced that he won't run after all. Diana, who was just reelected to a third term in November, said he decided to stick with 'a job that I truly love.'

HOUSE:

IN-03: Republican state Sen. Marlin Stutzman, who came in second to former Sen. Dan Coats in this month's GOP Senate primary, plans to run for the House seat left vacant by Rep. Mark Souder's resignation, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reports. Other candidates may include: state Rep. Randy Borror, Fort Wayne City Councilwoman Liz Brown, and Fort Wayne attorney Phil Troyer.

OH-15: Republican Steve Stivers, who lost a close race to Democratic Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy in 2008 after Ohio Right to Life backed a third-party candidate, won a 'preferred' rating from the group this week. That's something less than a full endorsement, but it means the influential anti-abortion group will go with him over Kilroy.

OH-16: Democratic Rep. John Boccieri, who skipped President Obama's last visit to Ohio in last March, greeted Obama during a visit to Youngstown yesterday. That's a real reversal for Boccieri, who also missed a White House signing ceremony for the health care reform bill -- even after he switched his vote from 'no' to 'yes,' in support of the legislation.

SC-04: GOP Rep. Bob Inglis is on the attack against one of the Republicans challenging him in South Carolina's June 8 House primary, and planned a press conference Tuesday afternoon to slam Spartanburg City Solicitor Trey Gowdy's record on spending. Over the last week, Inglis has criticized Gowdy for donating to then-Sen. Fritz Hollings, a Democrat, and challenged Gowdy to several debates via Twitter.

GOVERNORS:

ALABAMA: Former Sen. Jeremiah Denton, a former POW who served in Congress in the 1980s, endorsed former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore for the GOP's gubernatorial nomination Tuesday, calling Moore 'the best candidate to protect our heritage, our self image of One Nation Under God.'

MASSACHUSETTS: Liberal activist Grace Ross, who ran as a third-party candidate for governor in 2006 and is attempting to challenge Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick in this year's primary, hasn't qualified for the September ballot yet. Secretary of State William Galvin said Ross is still 5,700 signatures short of the 10,000 she needs, and Ross planned to make an announcement about her campaign Wednesday morning.

NEW YORK: The Empire State's Conservative Party moved up its nominating convention to May 28, POLITICO's Maggie Haberman reports, placing it three days before the state GOP convention and complicating the plans of party-switching gubernatorial candidate Steve Levy. Though Conservative Party Chairman Mike Long said he's 'not trying to be in anybody's face,' the change in date gives his party the chance to endorse former Rep. Rick Lazio for governor before giving Levy, the Suffolk County executive, to pick up support at the GOP gathering.

SOUTH CAROLINA: Rep. Gresham Barrett is jumping on the debate over illegal immigration in an attempt to boost his campaign for the Republican nomination for governor. He's airing a 30-second ad proposing that South Carolina adopt an immigration law similar to Arizona's -- 'a common-sense Arizona law' -- and 'give law enforcement the authority to deport illegal immigrants who are arrested and enforce employee verification to protect our jobs from illegal foreign labor.'
2012:

HALFWAY THERE: Mike Huckabee had just a 50 percent success rate backing House hopefuls in his home state of Arkansas Tuesday -- endorsees Rick Crawford and Beth Anne Rankin won their party's nomination in the 1st and 4th Districts, respectively, but Scott Wallace fell short by a wide margin in the 2nd District and Doug Matayo came in fifth place in the 3rd. That's not an impressive record for a politician who may still have broader aspirations.

BOLD. NEW? LEADERSHIP. Mitt Romney endorsed former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad's comeback attempt Tuesday, donating $10,000 to Branstad through his pack and praising the ex-governor's 'enviable record as a pro-growth fiscal conservative who will make jobs his first priority.' Said Romney: 'Iowa is ready for a comeback, and Terry's proven leadership is just what Iowa needs to get its economy back on track.'

EARLY FAVORITE: Romney holds an early lead in a prospective 2012 New Hampshire primary contest, according to a University of New Hampshire poll. Though many voters say they're unsure of who they'd support, Romney takes 44 percent of the vote, compared with 12 percent for Sarah Palin, five percent for Newt Gingrich and three percent for Tim Pawlenty.

WARD OF THE STATE: Sarah Palin is headed to Boise Friday to stump for veteran Vaughn Ward's congressional campaign. Palin gave an early endorsement to Ward, who recently replaced his campaign manager after a series of distracting errors threatened to undermine his bid.

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