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By Maggie Severns | 01/22/2018 10:00 AM EDT


With Daniel Strauss

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

THE LATEST - The Senate plans to vote at noon today on a bill that would fund the government through Feb. 8 - but passage of the bill is not assured. "Senate leaders Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer are continuing to negotiate on a deal to reopen the government and begin legislative work on protecting some young immigrants, but Schumer said 'we have yet to reach a path forward,'" reports POLITICO staff. For up-to-the-minute updates, read POLITICO's shutdown live blog here.

- How it's playing - "Parties fear shutdown fallout ahead of midterms": "The government shutdown has both parties scrambling to predict its impact on a political environment that had turned decidedly against President Donald Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections," POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt and Gabriel Debenedetti reported over the weekend. "Republicans, fully in charge of Washington and fearful that voters will punish them for failing to keep the government open, have quietly taken steps in recent weeks to gauge the possible fallout. America First Action, the principal pro-Trump group, has polled to see how the public would respond to a shutdown - and to see which
party it would blame. The organization is exploring the possibility of airing ads that buttress the party." Full story here.

- "Who gets blamed for the shutdown? Here's what the polls say," by POLITICO's Steven Shepard: "The last time the government shutdown in 2013, polls showed Republicans took the brunt of the blame. It looks like history might be repeating.

"Pre-shutdown polls from last week showed nearly half of respondents said they'd hold President Donald Trump and/or congressional Republicans responsible for a shutdown. ... A new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, conducted Thursday and Friday also found more voters would blame Republicans in Congress for the government shutdown, 41 percent, than would blame Democrats, 36 percent...

"Yet the shutdown is no clean political win for Democrats. ... In fact, both parties' immigration stances - Democrats' efforts to protect the so-called Dreamers and Trump's insistence on funding a border wall with Mexico - are viewed by voters as less important than keeping the government open." Full story here.

- How the red state Democrats voted: When the Senate took a procedural vote on Friday night that shut down the government, four Democrats up for reeleciton in 2018 - and recently elected Sen. Doug Jones - joined Republicans to vote "yes": Sens. Claire McCaskill, Joe Donnelly, Joe Manchin and Heidi Heitkamp. Other Democratic senators up for reelection including Sens. Jon Tester, Bill Nelson, Bob Casey and Debbie Stabenow stuck with their party and voted "no."

- RNC robocall takes a shot at Nelson: The Republican National Committee says that Nelson "recklessly voted to shut down the United States government" in a new robocall in Florida, via the Tampa Bay times.

FIRST IN SCORE - South Dakota Senate Minority Leader Billie Sutton raised over $870,000 from May 31 to Dec. 31 in 2017 in his gubernatorial bid. Ninety-eight percent of the donors for Sutton are South Dakotans, according to figures obtained by POLITICO. Ninety-six percent of the money was raised in-state. Sutton is expected to win the Democratic nomination.

Days until the 2018 election: 287

Upcoming election dates - Arizona 8th District special primary: Feb. 27. Texas primaries: March 6. Pennsylvania 18th District special election: March 13. Illinois primaries: March 20.

Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, dstrauss@politico.com and mseverns@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns.

WALK ON - "Hundreds of thousands protest in D.C., across country on women's march anniversary," by POLITICO's Brent D. Griffiths: "Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators marked the first anniversary of the national women's march in cities across the country on Saturday, vowing that last year's massive turnout was only the first stage of a movement protesting President Donald Trump, as many politicians sought to add their voices, too. ... Celebrities attending various events included Jane Fonda, Eva Longoria and Scarlett Johansson. Attorney Gloria Allred attended the Park City, Utah march. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, both Democrats, attended the
D.C. march." Full story here.

ROUND TWO - "Justice Department says it will re-try Sen. Bob Menendez," reports CNN: "The Justice Department filed a notice Friday to re-try Democratic New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez on federal bribery and corruption charges. ... In a statement, the Justice Department requested the court set 'the earliest possible date' for the new trial. ...

"The retrial could become a major headache for Democrats in the 2018 midterm elections.
Menendez is running for re-election this year despite his legal trouble and already has become a punching bag for national Republicans, who have sought to tie him to other Democrats on the ballot this year. Three Republicans are running to oppose Menendez, including Jeff Bell, the party's nominee against Democrat Cory Booker in 2014, and Army veteran Rich Pezzullo." Full story here.

DEFINITELY MAYBE - "Cynthia Nixon says 'maybe' to Cuomo challenge," by POLITICO's Jimmy Vielkind: "She drew the political press corps to a fundraising event seeking to get women in politics. They listened politely as she bashed President Donald Trump, but made little mention of the question they came to ask: Would Cynthia Nixon challenge Gov. Andrew Cuomo in a Democratic primary? 'Maybe,' the 'Sex and the City' actress told WNYC and NY1, with a smile. And that was it." Full story here.

ICYMI: "J.D. Vance passes on Senate run in Ohio," by POLITICO's Kevin Robillard: "Venture capitalist and author J.D. Vance has deciding against running for Senate, as Republicans consolidate around Rep. Jim Renacci as their new challenger to Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown. ...

"Vance's decision came hours after Ohio's GOP congressional delegation unanimously endorsed Renacci, a sign of how the congressman - who switched over from the governor's race after [Josh] Mandel's departure - is gathering GOP support. He faces businessman Mike Gibbons in the May 8 Republican primary." Full story here.

DEEP DIVE - "Elizabeth Warren's Native American problem goes beyond politics," by the Boston Globe: "There's a ghost haunting Elizabeth Warren as she ramps up for a possible 2020 presidential bid and a reelection campaign in Massachusetts this year: her enduring and undocumented claims of Native American ancestry. Warren says now, as she has from the first days of her public life, that she based her assertions on family lore, on her reasonable trust in what she was told about her ancestry as a child. ... But that self-awareness may not be enough, as her political ambitions blossom." Full story here.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "This seems so banal compared to 2013, when the two sides were actually fired up and there was a cause," a senior presidential aide said of the government shutdown.

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