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The Evening: Market Meltdown, Nuclear Posture Review, Monday and More
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** Good Evening,
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It's Monday, February 5th.


** Market Meltdown
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The Dow Jones industrial average today suffered its largest point drop in history, as CNBC reports (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/04/us-stocks-interest-rates-futures.html?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) .

The global selloff in stocks rippled through Europe and Asia as well, as the Wall Street Journal reports (https://www.wsj.com/articles/asia-pacific-stocks-fall-to-kick-off-the-week-1517790854?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) .


** Nuclear Posture Review
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A new nuclear policy issued by the Trump administration on Friday vows to counter a rush by the Russians to modernize their forces even as a treaty committing the U.S. and Russia to keep their long-range nuclear arsenals at the lowest levels since early in the Cold War goes into full effect today, as the
New York Times’ David Sanger and William Broad report (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/04/us/politics/trump-nuclear-russia.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) .

DoD’s nuclear posture review also includes steps for strengthening U.S. cyber defenses, as Inside Defense’s John Liang reports (https://insidedefense.com/insider/dods-nuclear-posture-review-includes-tougher-cyber-defenses?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) .

Meanwhile, Jane’s 360 reports (http://www.janes.com/article/77606/china-criticises-us-nuclear-posture-review?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) that China’s Ministry of National Defense has criticized the US government’s recently published Nuclear Posture Review for “playing up” the threat posed by China’s nuclear weapon program.

A link to the Nuclear Posture Review and its executive summary can be accessed here (https://www.defense.gov/News/Special-Reports/0218_npr/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: See Enhanced Deterrence in the North: A 21st Century European Engagement Strategy (https://www.csis.org/analysis/enhanced-deterrence-north?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) , by CSIS’s Heather Conley, Jeffrey Rathke and Matthew Melino.

Plus, “Questions about the Nuclear Posture Review (https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/02/05/questions-about-the-nuclear-posture-review/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) ,” by Brookings’ Steven Pifer.


** NK’s Ceremonial Leader to Visit SK for Olympics
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North Korea’s ceremonial leader will make an unprecedented visit to South Korea this week as hopes grew for high-level inter-Korean talks during the Winter Olympics that begin in four days, as Reuters reports (https://in.reuters.com/article/olympics-2018-northkorea/hopes-for-talks-grow-with-north-koreas-ceremonial-leader-to-visit-south-korea-for-olympics-idINKBN1FO0KQ?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: Meanwhile, new satellite imagery analysis (https://beyondparallel.csis.org/north-korean-special-operations-forces-hovercraft-bases-part-ii/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) from CSIS’s Beyond Parallel Project shows that North Korea continues to develop its conventional military forces.


** Executive M.A. from CSIS/Syracuse U
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CSIS & Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs offer Executive Master's in International Relations. Information here (https://www.maxwell.syr.edu/dc/emir/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) .


** In That Number
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** 10 million
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U.S. oil production surpassed 10 million barrels a day in November for the first time in nearly 50 years.
Source: WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-oil-production-tops-10-million-barrels-a-day-for-first-time-since-1970-1517429674?mod=djem_EnergyJournal&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) .


** Critical Quote
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** “Past assumptions that our capability to produce nuclear weapons would not be necessary and that we could permit the required infrastructure to age into obsolescence have proven to be mistaken.”
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—Department of Defense Nuclear Posture Review (https://www.defense.gov/News/Special-Reports/0218_npr/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) .


** iDeas Lab
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Die Welt
Here's a glimpse of Beyond Parallel's new satellite imagery on North Korea's evolving hovercraft bases. See the full feature here (https://beyondparallel.csis.org/north-korean-special-operations-forces-hovercraft-bases-part-ii/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) .

The Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab at CSIS enhances our research with the latest in cutting-edge web technologies, design, and video.


** Optics
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Die Welt (Photo credit: Patrick Smith/Getty Images.) Zach Ertz #86 of the Philadelphia Eagles flies into the end zone during Super Bowl 52.


** Recommended Reading
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“Exclusive: Massive Pentagon agency lost track of hundreds of millions of dollars (https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/05/pentagon-logistics-agency-review-funds-322860?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) ,” by
Politico’s Bryan Bender.


** This Town Tomorrow
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At 9:30 a.m., CSIS will host a conversation with Ksenia Sobchak (https://www.csis.org/events/russias-post-authoritarian-future-conversation-russian-presidential-candidate-ksenia-sobchak?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) , candidate for President of the Russian Federation, on the prospects for Russia’s post-authoritarian future.

Join Brookings tomorrow at 6:00 p.m. for “The Future of Jerusalem and the Prospects for Palestinian Unity (https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-future-of-jerusalem-and-the-prospects-for-palestinian-unity/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) .”

And, on February 22, join the U.S.-China Business Council for “China’s Information Technology Environment in 2018 (https://www.uschina.org/events/china%E2%80%99s-information-technology-environment-2018?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) ,” a discussion on the challenges facing companies with China business and global technology platforms.


** Video
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Today, CSIS hosted a panel discussion on local Syrian and Coalition stabilization efforts in Raqqa (https://www.csis.org/events/stabilizing-raqqa-connecting-current-operations-us-policy-objectives?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) , featuring experts from USAID, the U.S. Department of State, and the U.S. Department of Defense.


** Sounds
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U.S. oil output has exceeded 10 million b/d for the first time since 1970. CSIS’s Sarah Ladislaw joined S&P Global’s “Capitol Crude” podcast to discuss the United States’ shifting role in the global oil market, and what current U.S. oil output means for diplomacy, sanctions and trade policy. Listen on Apple Podcasts (https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/s-p-global-platts-capitol/id1165562661?mt=2&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) or through Platts.com (https://www.platts.com/podcasts-detail/crude/2018/february/capitol-crude-020518?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_term=oil&utm_content=photo&utm_campaign=capitolcrude&hootpostid=9804f9e1cd965771a37996bdd925f58a&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) .


** Smiles
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Justin Timberlake’s Super Bowl performance didn’t do it for me. It made me miss truly important rock and roll. Luckily, this weekend I started listening to the reissue deluxe edition of Wilco’s seminal 1996 album, “Being There.”

“Being There” is on my desert island top 10 list—it’s that good. The reissue has some serious gems—especially the Southern-rock shambolic groove of “Monday (Party Horn Version) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B24la7sQsCw&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789) .” You should really check it out on the deluxe release if you haven’t, but this is the closest sounding version, taken from the film “Ashes of American Flags.”
I invite you to email me at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org) and follow me on Twitter @handrewschwartz (https://www.twitter.com/handrewschwartz?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=497feb5724-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-497feb5724-145367789)

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The Evening is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Colm Quinn, Sofie Kodner, and Jackie Ramsay.

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