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EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

The modern nation state has been the subject of countless books and
essays, and is the foundation for almost all political economic theory
from Kant to Keynes. Since 2008, economists have been struggling. Is
there something about the post-crisis world we are still not
understanding? As missiles flew over Damascus this weekend, and US-China
trade tensions spill over to competition, technology, and security
issues, it is worthwhile examining our basic assumptions. In spite of
globalization, Kant's Perpetual Peace

https://www.gutenberg.org/files/50922/50922-h/50922-h.htm

has certainly not arrived.

New thinking is tackling this foundational topic. In his personal blog

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01f0-1804/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct2_1/1?sid=TV2%3AVWipQ0DQ3

China analyst Andrew Batson reviews Timothy Snyder's book Black Earth:
The Holocaust as History and Warning

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01f0-1804/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct3_1/1?sid=TV2%3AVWipQ0DQ3

. "The main ‘warning' of the title" he says, "is that the collapse of
the state creates the conditions in which humanitarian disasters and
mass killing are possible. If this was the lesson that had been learned
from the Holocaust, perhaps it would have been easier to see how foreign
interventions that destroyed functioning states without replacing them
(Iraq, Libya) would lead to evil consequences for their people."

It is also well worth listening to China Power's podcast with Evan
Feigenbaum

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01f0-1804/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct4_1/1?sid=TV2%3AVWipQ0DQ3

of the Paulson Institute at the University of Chicago. He's an Asianist
who avoids the siloed approach, and provides an illuminating construct:
Asia is not driven by ideology but by history and nationalism. He says
there are two Asias, "Security Asia" driven by those forces, and
"Economic Asia" focused on trade & growth. Are Asian nations
fundamentally different from Western states?

My conclusion is that although there might be different archetypes, we
should not hope for a weak state anywhere. In a surprise move, the US is
set to back a $13B capital raise for the World Bank in order to make it
self-sustaining. This does not support the narrative that the US is
turning inwards and eschews global organizations, and should add a
fillip to the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings this coming week.

Given its critical nature, I've included below a number of perspectives
on US-China trade issues.

RESEARCH BY ECONVUE EXPERTS

China Is Bluffing on U.S. Tariffs, and Trump Knows It

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/china-bluffing-us-tariffs-and-trump-knows-it

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

China will suffer far more economically and politically from a
protracted trade dispute with the U.S. Without continued strong economic
growth, Xi cannot control his own Communist Party apparatus let alone
the general population.

Goodbye "Dr. Know-It-All": Medicine's Liberating Knowledge Explosion

https://econvue.com/pulse/goodbye-%E2%80%9Cdr-know-it-all%E2%80%9D-medicine%E2%80%99s-liberating-knowledge-explosion

David W. Johnson

https://econvue.com/experts/david-w-johnson

The digitization and globalization of medical information is
overwhelming traditional medical practices. Physicians confront a
continuous avalanche of medical discoveries on disease origins, symptoms
and treatments. By 2020, medical knowledge will double every 73 days.

Asking about Citizenship Status in the 2020 Census Is Dangerous and
Politically Inept

https://econvue.com/pulse/asking-about-citizenship-status-2020-census-dangerous-and-politically-inept

Robert Shapiro

https://econvue.com/experts/robert-shapiro

My arithmetic, detailed below, suggests that some 24.3 million people
would have good reason to skip the 2020 Census if they believe their
names and addresses could be shared with law enforcement.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT

The advanced economies' lost decade

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01f0-1804/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct11_1/1?sid=TV2%3AVWipQ0DQ3

Robert Skidelsky 4/13/2018 Project Syndicate

A decade after 2008, are we still paying the price for stepping into the
austerity puddle too soon after the Global Financial Crisis? Worth a
slow read this weekend.

U.S.

US poised to support $13bn capital increase for World Bank

https://www.ft.com/content/bedf52ca-3f57-11e8-b7e0-52972418fec4

Shawn Donnan and Sam Fleming 4/14/2018 Financial Times

Financial Fulcrums: Podcast with James Bianco

https://grantpub.libsyn.com/

Interviewed by Jim Grant 4/9/2018 Grant's Podcasts

Chicago's Jim Bianco talks interest rates, inflation fears, and where
bonds yields are headed.

Why aren't US bond investors panicking?

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/explaining-bond-market-complacency-by-anatole-kaletsky-2018-03/english

Anatole Kaletsky 3/27/2018 Project Syndicate

Because 1) they don't believe in the demand story that would drive
inflation, 2) they do believe that technological advances will continue
to drive down prices, and 3) they are sanguine about global political
stability.

The work ahead: Machines, Skills, and U.S. Leadership in the
Twenty-First Century

https://www.cfr.org/report/the-work-ahead/

Penny Pritzker and John Engle 4/2018 Council on Foreign Relations

A new report on a critical subject--work. Doctors rather than truck
drivers might be optional in this brave new world.

Junk cities: Resolving insolvency crises in overlapping municipalities

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3160396

Aurelia Chaudhury, Adam J. Levitin & David Schleicher 4/10/2018 SSRN

This is a blueprint for the future of Illinois and the Chicagoland area
unless we make some hard choices very soon. And I don't think we will.

China

This Pentagon Paper Explains Why the Trump Administration Is Reining In
Tech Trade with China

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2018/04/pentagon-paper-explains-why-trump-administration-reining-tech-trade-china/147258/

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2018/04/pentagon-paper-explains-why-trump-administration-reining-tech-trade-china/147258/

Patrick Tucker 4/ 6/2018 Defense One

The newly released paper describes how technological progress fits into
China's long-term strategic plans.

US-China tensions in light of game theory

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/global-trade-trump-china-tariffs-by-mohamed-a--el-erian-2018-04

Mohamed A. El-Erian 4/6/2017 Project Syndicate

Current trade tensions could conceivably destroy this cooperative game,
triggering a shift to a non-cooperative one, with elements of a
"prisoner's dilemma," in which self-interested action turns out to be
both individually and mutually destructive. But, given that this would
mean losses for virtually all countries, it may be possible to avoid it,
with the help of a few targeted policy responses.

Endgame: Tariffs, technology and China

https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2018/04/12/endgame-tariffs-technology-and-china.html

Sean Randolph 4/13/2018 Silicon Valley Business Jounal

View from the Valley, spot on analysis.

Will China really supplant US economic dominance?

https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2018/04/02/will-china-really-supplant-economic-dominance/TX59ykkgmpVuJBKGyMbvhK/story.html?event=event25

Kenneth Rogoff 4/3/2018 Boston Globe

Insight on employment challenges in China. Actually US monetary policy
is also focused on full employment-we just have fewer people to care for
who have been or will be displaced by automation. So the burden is
proportionately higher regardless of structural issues.

The hidden risks of China's war on debt

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Cover-Story/The-hidden-risks-of-China-s-war-on-debt

Henny Sender 2/28/2018 Nikkei Asian Review

An underestimated risk to the US economy is the health of the Chinese
economy-especially its domestic debt markets. Great Nikkei cover story
by one of Asia's best financial journalists.

China to adopt system of punitive damages for intellectual property
rights infringements

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-intellectual-property/china-to-adopt-system-of-punitive-damages-for-intellectual-property-rights-infringements-idUSKBN1HJ1TE

4/12/2018 Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-intellectual-property/china-to-adopt-system-of-punitive-damages-for-intellectual-property-rights-infringements-idUSKBN1HJ1TE

Protecting innovation is just as important for domestic Chinese
companies as it is for multinationals. But enforcement will be the key.

China asserts firm grip on research data

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/04/china-asserts-firm-grip-research-data

Dennis Normile 4/9/2018 Science Magazine

In a move few scientists anticipated, the Chinese government has decreed
that all scientific data generated in China must be submitted to
government-sanctioned data centers before appearing in publications. At
the same time, the regulations, posted last week, call for open access
and data sharing.

The world's emptiest airport is a red flag

https://nextcity.org/features/view/the-worlds-emptiest-airport-is-a-red-flag

Holly Robertson 4/9/2018 Next City

When politics overrules economics.

Rest of the World

Gold to surge as U.S.-North Korean summit cages the dragon

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4160455-gold-surge-u-s-north-korean-summit-cages-dragon

Albert Goldson 4/2 2018 Seeking Alpha

I am not a gold bug, but this article on the mutual interests of the US
and North Korea is quite thought provoking. The previous status quo,
although somewhat of an irritant, had been in China's best interests.

Brexit won't kill as many U.K. finance jobs as we once thought

http://fortune.com/2018/03/28/brexit-finance-job-losses-london-uk/

Natasha Bach 3/28/2018 Fortune

Bankers prefer London, Paris, then Frankfurt.

With all best wishes,


Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

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