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By Kevin Robillard | 04/09/2018 10:00 AM EDT


With Daniel Strauss

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

LAUNCH DAY - Scott expected to enter Senate race: Florida GOP Gov. Rick Scott is expected to enter his state's Senate contest today, challenging Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. Strategists on both sides expect a toss-up race, with Republicans pointing to a money edge and a recent boost in popularity as reasons to be bullish on the governor, while Democrats say a generic ballot edge for their party should ease Nelson to victory. The Tampa Bay Times' Alex Leary reports the rollout will start at 10 a.m. with an announcement broadcast on Facebook, and will include first-day stops in Orlando and Fort Myers. Full story.

- Expect the Florida Senate race to be the most expensive contest for a seat in the upper chamber this cycle, and perhaps the most expensive ever, topping last year's Pennsylvania contest. The Washington Post's Sean Sullivan reports Scott is expected to be in D.C. next week to raise money for the contest, and says Scott's associates have talked about raising as much as $100 million for the bid. Full story.

- Expect lots of Democratic pushback on Day 1. Senate Majority PAC is already out with a digital ad, backed by a six-figure buy, saying Scott "won't look out for you." And the Florida Democratic Party blasted out a list of surrogates ready to attack Scott in every media market in Florida. Watch the ad.

TRADE WAR POLITICS - "Republicans worry Trump's trade war will blot out tax cut message," by POLITICO's Nancy Cook: "Republicans want President Donald Trump to stick to a simple message ahead of the 2018 midterm elections: cutting taxes and slashing regulations. But the president, who regards himself as a master communicator, seems to have a different plan. After repeatedly deriding the marketing of the landmark tax reform passed in December - which he wanted to call the 'Cut Cut Cut Act' - Trump has shifted gears, instead launching into a tit-for-tat war on trade with China. ... 'If the tariffs raise prices on American consumers, then that will negate part of the positive impact of the tax
cut. It's the government giving the tax cut with the right hand and taking it away with the tariff with the left one,' said Stephen Moore, a distinguished visiting fellow at The Heritage Foundation and one of the architects of the Trump campaign's tax plan." Full story.

- FIRST IN SCORE - "GOP super PAC: Tariffs lifting Trump, Renacci in Ohio," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "A new survey project from a super PAC backing Rep. Jim Renacci's (R-Ohio) Senate campaign found President Donald Trump's popularity in the state surging, and Renacci pulling closer to Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, after the president implemented tariffs on steel and aluminum. Grassroots Targeting conducted the survey for Ohio First PAC, a pro-Renacci group. The firm interviewed 1,266 registered voters in the state, and used the survey as a baseline to build a model of the 2018 electorate based on the full RNC Data Trust voter file. In February, the president's job approval among
likely voters in the state was 49 percent, with 46 percent disapproval. In April, it surged to 58 percent, with just 39 percent disapproval. ... And while Brown has hoped to use his support for the tariffs to woo voters who backed Trump in 2016, the survey project shows him in a tight race with Renacci. In February, Brown led 43 percent to 38 percent. The race is now essentially tied, 41 percent to 40 percent." Full story.

Q1 FUNDRAISING - AZ-SEN: Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema announced $2.5 million raised in the first quarter for her Senate campaign, which has about $6.7 million on hand (and is starting TV advertising this week - more on that below).

- IN-SEN: Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly raised $1.6 million in the first quarter and has $6.4 million on hand, according to the Indianapolis Star.

- GA-GOV: Democrat Stacey Abrams' gubernatorial campaign said it raised $1 million between the February-March filing period and has nearly $900,000 cash on hand.

Days until the 2018 election: 211

Upcoming election dates - AZ-08 special election: April 24 - Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina and West Virginia primaries: May 8. - Idaho, Nebraska, Pennsylvania and Oregon primaries: May 15.

Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, dstrauss@politico.com and mseverns@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns.

GETTING IN - Mike Espy joins U.S. Senate race: Democrat Mike Espy, a former congressman and U.S. Agriculture Secretary, made it official on Friday and joined the U.S. Senate race to replace retired Sen. Thad Cochran. Espy has hired Joe Trippi, the former Howard Dean strategist who played a major role in electing Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in Alabama. And Espy sounded Jones-like in announcing his bid: "If elected to this important position, I will work every day to be a shining example of the positive qualities of our state - and I will work to unify this state like no one before me ever has," he said. "There is no more time for disunity and dysfunction. We simply have too much work to do."

STAYING OUT - "Eric Hovde decides not to enter Republican race for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin," by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Bill Glauber: "Madison businessman Eric Hovde won't enter the Republican race for U.S. Senate. 'Well, after wrestling with this decision for the last six months I've decided not to run,' Hovde told 'UpFront with Mike Gousha' in an interview ... . Hovde's decision leaves state Sen. Leah Vukmir of Brookfield and Delafield businessman Kevin Nicholson battling for the GOP nomination and the chance to take on Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin in the fall." Full story.

ON THE AIR - Sinema airs first ad: Sinema is up with the first television ads of her Arizona Senate bid, a variant on a digital ad she ran earlier featuring her brother Paul, a police officer. The ad is backed by a buy of more than $400,000, according to Advertising Analytics. Watch it here.

- "PAC Launches Pro-Vukmir Ad Linking Her, Walker," by the Associated Press: "A political action committee with close ties to Gov. Scott Walker has launched a $575,000 television advertising campaign to benefit Republican U.S. Senate candidate Leah Vukmir. The Wisconsin Next PAC says its ad released Thursday is running statewide in April, on top of $225,000 spent on digital and radio ads. It touts Vukmir as a 'proven conservative.' ... The TV spot also credits Vukmir with leading the fight to pass Walker's Act 10 law in 2011 that effectively ended collective bargaining for public works. The ad calls opponents who protested against it 'union thugs' who tried to 'bully Wisconsin
conservatives.'" Watch the ad here.

PRIMARY CONCERNS - "4 in 5 staunch Colorado Republicans back Donald Trump. So why won't GOP candidates for governor embrace him?," by The Denver Post's John Frank: "Trump is a defining figure in the 2018 election in Colorado, particularly in Republican primary contests, where a poll shows support for the president among the party's likely voters holds at 80 percent. But many of the state's Republican candidates remain reluctant to embrace Trump. The two most prominent contenders for governor - state Treasurer Walker Stapleton and Attorney General Cynthia Coffman - won't say whether they will accept the president's endorsement or campaign with him. And most others offer conditional support.
Doug Robinson, a first-time candidate and nephew of former presidential candidate Mitt Romney, said he would accept Trump's endorsement even as he bluntly acknowledged the political landscape in Colorado." Full story.

2020 WATCH - "Kander hires Des Moines Register scribe amid 2020 buzz," by POLITICO's David Siders and Edward-Isaac Dovere: "Kander, the former Missouri secretary of state and failed 2016 Senate candidate who has become an unlikely national Democratic figure, is bringing on Jason Noble, who on Friday announced he was leaving his job as political reporter for the Des Moines Register. Noble will direct national communications strategy for Kander's Let America Vote, which is dedicated to pushing back on voting restrictions on the state level, and for Kander himself. He will start work next week for Kander's Let America Vote group from the organization's offices in Des Moines." Full story.

WEB WARS - NRSC attacks red-state Democrats on tax reform in digital ads: The NRSC is going after 10 red-state Democrats in a five-figure digital ad buy, attacking them on not supporting the GOP's tax bill. The ads, which will also air in Arizona and Nevada, will appear on Facebook and YouTube. "Tax cuts mean more money in your pocket, more food on the table - more fuel, more jobs, more memories for them," titles on the ads say. The ad rewinds and asks: "Why do Democrats want to take that away?" Watch the Facebook ad here. Watch the YouTube ad here.

CORRECTION: The April 5 edition of Morning Score misidentified a Democratic candidate in New Hampshire's 1st District. She is Maura Sullivan.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Young people can relate to memes." - Kara Kline, a 20-year-old organizer for NextGen America, the millennial registration group led by venture capitalist Tom Steyer, to the Washington Post.

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