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Good Evening,

Welcome to The Evening CSIS \u2014my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day plus HIGHLY RECOMMENDED content from around the world. If you want to view this in your browser, click here [ http://CSIS.informz.net/InformzDataService/OnlineVersion/Individual?mailingInstanceId=5300236&subscriberId=1062005454 ] .

Implicated
A high-profile British inquiry into the poisoning of Alexander V. Litvinenko, a former KGB officer turned critic of the Kremlin, concluded in a report released today that his murder \u201cwas probably approved\u201d by Vladimir Putin and the head of Russia\u2019s spy service, as the New York Times \u2019 Alan Cowell reports [ http://nyti.ms/1UeXAYK ] .

And, as the UK\u2019s Independent reports [ http://ind.pn/1UeYogd ] , the Litvinenko inquiry and the ensuing war of words between Britain and Russia threatens cooperation in the fight against ISIS.

Surge
Oil prices surged to their biggest gains in months, briefly peaking over $30 a barrel, after traders learned that oil supplies failed to rise as quickly as the most extreme estimates had suggested, as the Wall Street Journal \u2019s Timothy Puko reports [ http://on.wsj.com/1UeYEvX ] .

Dive Deeper: CSIS\u2019s Frank Verrastro, Kevin Book, and Guy Caruso today authored a new commentary: \u201cA Difficult Start to a (Still) Turbulent Year for Global Oil and Gas.\u201d [ http://bit.ly/1UeYJzI ]

New Deal
The United States and Israel are finalizing details of a 10-year military aid package that likely will be larger than the $3.1 billion US package Israel received this year, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said today at the World Economic Forum, as USA Today \u2019s Donna Leinwand Leger reports [ http://usat.ly/1PlyqJX ] .

Recommended op-ed: \u201cBuilding the Future in Israel,\u201d [ http://nyti.ms/1PlyIkb ] by Israeli minister of housing and construction Yoav Gallant for the New York Times .

ISIS's Internet
ISIS is the first terrorist organization to use the Internet efficiently to spread its ideology and recruit followers in the region and abroad, but it is not an anomaly. In fact, it is reflective of what we can expect to come from terrorist groups in the future. Technology is just one part of the problem, however. What will terrorist organizations in seven years\u2019 time look like? Chatham House hosted [ http://bit.ly/1Plz8a6 ] Google Ideas\u2019 Jared Cohen to discuss

In that Number
$18 billion
The amount of money that China will invest in Egypt as part of a series of deals signed during President Xi\u2019s visit to Cairo today.
Source: VOA [ http://www.voanews.com/content/china-signs-investment-deals-woth-one-billion-dollars-with-egypt/3156074.html ] .

Critical Quote
\u201cIf China\u2019s economic, military, and geopolitical influence continues to rise at even a modest pace during this period, the world will witness the largest shift in the global distribution of power since the rise of the United States in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.\u201d
\u2014 Asia-Pacific Rebalance 2025: Capabilities, Presence, and Partnerships .
Source: CSIS [ http://csis.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT01Mjk3MTQ0JnA9MSZ1PTEwNjQ2OTgzNTkmbGk9MzI5MjE1MDY/index.html ] .
One to Watch


The Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather [ https://twitter.com/capitalweather ] ) is one to watch as Snowmaggedon II bears down and brings Washington to a halt.

Optics
The World Economic Forum\u2019s annual meeting is in full swing in Davos. Of particular interest thus far are Vice President Joe Biden\u2019s address [ https://youtu.be/02AFIUA9igE ] , Prime Minister David Cameron\u2019s speech on Great Britain\u2019s role in the world [ https://youtu.be/bFyL3i61hOw ] , and a conversation between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Fareed Zakaria [ https://youtu.be/lSxWZ35eZV0 ] .

Highly Recommended
Via the New Yorker \u2019s Hua Hsu, \u201cTwenty-Somethings in Taiwan and the Country\u2019s First Female President.\u201d [ http://bit.ly/1UeWyfk ]

CSIS Tomorrow
Tomorrow at 10:00 a.m., CSIS will host \u201cStrategic Deterrent Forces: A Foundation for National Security,\u201d with Admiral Cecil Haney, commander of US Strategic Command. To register click here. [ http://csis.org/event/strategic-deterrent-forces-foundation-national-security ]

CSIS on Demand
Yesterday, CSIS hosted the launch of Asia-Pacific Rebalance 2025: Capabilities, Presence, and Partnerships . This congressionally mandated study discusses the importance of the Asia-Pacific region to US national security in particular and global peace and prosperity more broadly; watch the panel discussion on demand here [ http://csis.org/event/asia-pacific-rebalance-2025-capabilities-presence-and-partnerships ] .

Sounds
CFR\u2019s latest episode on \u201cThe World Next Week\u201d [ http://feeds.cfr.org/publication/twnw ] previews newly planned Syrian peace talks, discusses Haiti\u2019s presidential runoff election, and takes a look at how far Yemen and Egypt have come in the five years since their uprisings.

I Like It Like That
Eye-catching things in CSIS's orbit
Best quotes [ http://bit.ly/1UeWXyu ] from Day 1 at Davos.

Smiles
I got a peaceful easy feeling,
And I know you won't let me down

As with \u201cAlready Gone,\u201d the above are songwriter Jack Tempchin\u2019s lyrics, but it was Glenn Frey who brought \u201cPeaceful Easy Feeling\u201d to life with the Eagles\u2019 1972 debut.

And ever since then, just about everyone in Nashville not named Cash has been trying to create a song of equal beauty and elegant simplicity. And every rock star not named Crosby, Stills, Nash or Young has been trying to sing and strum in such blissful harmony.

Some people are just irreplaceable. In \u201976 Frey famously sang (his own lyrics) \u201cThey will never forget you till somebody new comes along.\u201d Frey himself is one exception to that notion.

This BBC performance [ http://bit.ly/1UeSps1 ] from \u201973 with the original Eagles\u2014Frey, Henley, Bernie Leadon and Randy Meisner won\u2019t let you down.

A Smile for the Road\u2026
Snowmageddon II is about to hit DC and everyone in town is hunkering down. With any luck, The Evening CSIS will be dug out by Monday\u2014but our record here with snow ain\u2019t so good. Cleveland, we are not. So it may be some time before our next \u201cSmile.\u201d

At CSIS, we like to believe that our work helps the media to report on matters of national security. Thanks to my colleagues Andrew Metrick and Scott Aughenbaugh, we have uncovered a bit of proof that our work indeed resonates with our friends from the 4th estate.

Earlier this week, CSIS\u2019s Mark Cancian and our iDeas Lab produced a new video [ http://bit.ly/1n1y4eG ] which pointed out that last Sunday marked 25 years of bombing Iraq.

We figured that the Washington Post , New York Times and Wall Street Journal must have missed our video, because sadly, they didn\u2019t pick it up. However, we were glad that Defense One did, and on Facebook the video has been viewed over 525,000 times.

But we really smiled at the thought that somehow our video might have tipped off the Onion who today published the following mash-up: \u201cPentagon Holds Gala To Celebrate 25 Years Of Bombing Iraq.\u201d [ http://onion.com/1UeTkIV ]

Feedback
I always welcome and benefit from your feedback. Please drop me a line at aschwartz@csis.org.


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