EconVue Spotlight April 28, 2018 IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings

SUBJECT:

PRI: NORMAL

FROM:

L

lyric@econvue.com

DATE:

2018-04-28 20:16:48

MSG_ID:

<UWCZBTYBZX$UYVXCXZZTBUTA@mail-out.via.act-on.net>

RECIPIENTS:

TO:

H

R. Hunter Biden <hbiden@rosemontseneca.com>

CONTENT: TEXT: YES | HTML: YES

PROCESSED

Image:
To see the original, click here:
http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01f1-1804/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct28_0/1?sid=TV2%3AkIKHGFAPT
Target URL: http://www.econvue.com

EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

Last week I attended the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington.
Although the weather was cold, the mood was better than it has been for
some time, buoyed by the unexpected US decision to contribute additional
capital to the World Bank. The most amazing thing however was how many
people were turned away from the Fintech panels. The organizers
completely underestimated interest in blockchain and cryptocurrencies.
It was fascinating to hear regulators, central bankers, and
practitioners discuss cutting edge financial innovations, and what these
might mean for emerging markets. EconVue expert Karim Pakravan

https://www.econvue.com/experts/karim-pakravan

reviews the two major reports issued at the meeting below.

At the Bretton Woods Committee meeting, World Bank President Jim Yong
Kim described how he worked with private insurance companies to create
catastrophe bonds to fund global disasters such as pandemics and famine.
I first heard about this at the G7 meetings in Sendai in 2016 - the
Japanese have been strong backers. Now this innovative approach has
become reality and $450M has been raised. You can watch Kim's speech
here

https://youtu.be/ATlsUYpdUdA

. The pandemic bonds are paying 8.7% and were twice oversubscribed. This
is a terrific example of a public-private partnership which can provide
readily available resources in times of need.

My overall impressions over the three days I spent in DC: although
inflation is on the horizon, risks are moderate. No one really can
forecast the effects of new technologies on finance, jobs, and markets
efficiencies. The US is more of a rational global player than is being
portrayed in the media. Concerns are rising about the US-China
relationship, potential channels of contagion, and the collapse of
private investment in China over the past two years. For more on this,
I've included a link below to the Peterson Institute's China seminar,
co-sponsored by Caixin. I especially recommend the second panel on
reforms, and Nicholas Lardy's remarks.

Lastly, for those of you who are in the LA area, I will be speaking at a
breakfast

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/city-national-bank-trade-policy-forum-registration-45007994122

sponsored by City National Bank on May 24th.

RESEARCH BY ECONVUE EXPERTS

The IMF Report: Short-Term Resilience, Rising Medium-Term Risks

https://www.econvue.com/pulse/imf-report-short-term-resilience-rising-medium-term-risks

Karim Pakravan

https://www.econvue.com/experts/karim-pakravan

The just concluded IMF Spring Meeting issued the semi-annual updates of
its two major reports-the World Economic Outlook (WEO) and Global
Financial Stability Report (GSFR). In these reports, the IMF remained
upbeat about the short-term outlook for the global economy, but warned
about rising downside risks, especially in the medium- to long-term.

Payments Potential

https://www.econvue.com/pulse/payments-potential

Collin Canright

https://www.econvue.com/experts/collin-canright

From realtime to person-to-person and crypto, digital payments continue
to change the payments landscape in the United States. Even so, cash is
back, to the detriment of one growing business, as covered in this
issue's links.

How the 2018 Summit of the Americas can still make a difference

https://www.econvue.com/pulse/how-2018-summit-americas-can-still-make-difference

R. Evan Ellis

https://www.econvue.com/experts/r-evan-ellis

Although this article article on the Summit of the Americas in Peru was
written before the missile strike in Syria, and doesn't capture the
impact of the action on the summit agenda, I believe that the basic
analysis of the conservative trend in the region is consistent with what
happened at the summit, and the article's arguments about the agenda for
the Americas may continue to be of use to you as a point of reference.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT

Global Financial Landscape

Animation: Global population by region from 1950 to 2100

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/animation-global-population-by-region-1950-2100/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=SocialWarfare

Jeff Desjardins 4/25/2018 Visual Capitalist

Stunning animation that highlights imminent huge population growth in
Africa as it catches up with Asia. What it doesn't show is the age of
people in those two regions over that same period. Asia will be old, and
Africa will be young.

Truculent view on Target-2: Greenspan points to 'destabilising'
euro

https://www.omfif.org/analysis/commentary/2018/april/truculent-view-on-target-2/

David Marsh 4/27/2018 OMIFF

Is Europe at risk? At the meeting of the World Gold Council, Alan
Greenspan restates his views on the Euro, which he says is an
unsustainable currency.

OPIC: Corporate welfare and foreign policy

https://www.mercatus.org/commentary/OPIC-corporate-welfare

Tad DeHaven 4/23/2018 George Mason Unversity

OPIC stays. The new head of OPIC, Ray Washburne was quite impressive-
you can see his remarks here at the Bretton Woods meeting.

https://youtu.be/5Q9O0HBJOII

I asked him how China's One Belt One Road project compares in terms of
investment: OPIC is only $40B compared to OBOR's $2T.

FinTech

IMF Quiz: How Much Do You Know About Fintech?

https://blogs.imf.org/2018/03/12/fintech-quiz-how-much-do-you-know/

This is fun. 10 questions and you will get a perfect score no matter
what. But no more spoilers!

What has driven the expansion of the peer-to-peer lending?

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2841316

Olena Havrylchyk 2/23/2018 SSRN

The rapid growth of peer-to-peer lending is another example of
decentralization of financial services enabled by technology and spurred
on by the effects of the Global Financial Crisis.

The case for central bank electronic money and the non-case for central
bank cryptocurrencies

https://files.stlouisfed.org/research/publications/review/2018/04/16//the-case-for-central-bank-electronic-money-and-the-non-case-for-central-bank-cryptocurrencies.pdf

Aleksander Berentsen and Fabian Schar 4/16/2018 Federal Reserve Bank of
St. Louis

Blockchain without an incentive-based payment system such as bitcoin is
just a slow private distributed ledger database someone has to pay to
maintain.

Why an investor is predicting Bitcoin could hit $700,000

http://

Jen Wieczner 4/25/2018 Fortune

Will bitcoin replace gold? There are seven ways to Sunday in terms of
calculating its true value.

China

China and the world: Recalibration and realignment

https://piie.com/events/china-and-world-recalibration-and-realignment