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04/30/2018 08:05 AM EDT


By Nolan D. McCaskill (nmccaskill@politico.com or @NolanDMcCaskill)

DIVISIVE PRIMARY COULD COST GOP A SPECIAL ELECTION -- Republicans fear a chaotic primary could cost the GOP a seat in an Ohio special election. House Freedom Caucus co-founder Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) is backing the self-described Trump Republican Melanie Leneghan, pitting him against former Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-Ohio), who has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to boost state Sen. Troy Balderson in the race to succeed him. Tiberi, a close ally of GOP leadership, resigned in January. "It's the latest in a series of mainstream-versus-outsider battles in Republican primaries around the country," Elena Schneider reports.

"But some of Balderson's backers say there is more than intraparty politics at stake: They argue that a Leneghan primary win would put the GOP in danger of losing another special election this summer, in a district that's been held for decades by Republicans like Tiberi and Ohio Gov. John Kasich," she continues. Democrats won special elections for a conservative Alabama Senate and Pennsylvania House seat. Republicans, however, were successful in staving off a Democratic challenge for an Arizona seat, though the single-digit margin of victory could signal problems for November. Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=574deb6e78e12a0abea252107a08dc08e8ee899de93fb9b4c758e9300bab7efe3da867f445117e8612d34fb7416cbd57

TRUMP BULLISH ON GOP MIDTERM PROSPECTS -- President Donald Trump doesn't agree with the notion that Democrats could win back the House or take the Senate in November, "leaving party officials and the president's advisers nervous that he does not grasp the gravity of the threat they face in the midterm elections," The New York Times' Jonathan Martin, Alexander Burns and Maggie Haberman report. "Congressional and party leaders and even some Trump aides are concerned that the president's boundless self-assurance about politics will cause him to ignore or undermine their midterm strategy."

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) reminded the president over dinner earlier this month that the party's prospects are tied to what he says and does. Marc Short, the White House legislative affairs director, said the GOP's House majority was all but doomed. Trump, however, rejected that assertion. Advisers say Trump plans to hold one fundraiser a week and rally regularly with candidates beginning this summer. "But there is not yet any coordinated effort about where to deploy Mr. Trump, and there are divisions within his ever-fractious circle of advisers about how to approach the elections," they write. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=574deb6e78e12a0a0f0629d88325ec12bf4808245672999721874a9ad314bb1ce929e1b652d9e1c09b7b141e49cce8fc

Related: "'Ready, shoot, aim': President Trump's loyalty tests cause hiring headaches," by The Washington Post's Ashley Parker, Philip Rucker and Josh Dawsey: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=574deb6e78e12a0a5af57c0aa18d514ed80d23da2b9d84aef1cd817a682c59ce230d8557d6349b2132589c7efc5b36ec

BUT DEMS ARE EXPANDING THEIR TARGETS -- Democrats believed last year that focusing on the suburbs would lead them back into the majority in the House. But now Democrats are "suggesting that the 2018 field is dramatically larger than anyone could have guessed last year, including in some more rural spots that they once thought of ceding to Republicans," The Washington Post's Paul Kane reports. "For Democrats, the first-tier districts remain roughly three dozen largely suburban and well-educated areas, but they're now eyeing second- and third-tier races in case the wave is as big as some Democrats hope."

Republicans were and are able to spend big in special elections. But the GOP can't prop up candidates in the same fashion come November, when 50 to 100 Republican seats will be challenged while only a few Democratic seats are expected to be in play. "There is a wave out there that I do see coming, and I think to deny that is an unwise position to take," Rep. Tom Reed (R-N.Y.) warned. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=574deb6e78e12a0aca07f765cd30d91c234f810cbaa007efc534e9055d8989ec6f8ff8746f57c428085944e8e6053307

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FRIDAY'S MOST CLICKED: HuffPost's report on the White House questionnaire for Republican candidates who want the president's backing was the winner.

HARRIS GROWS DIGITAL ARMY -- When Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) became the latest 2020 prospect to swear off money from corporate PACs, it "reflected a broader -- potentially more significant -- effort to fortify her small-donor fundraising strategy ahead of the 2020 election," David Siders reports. "She's spending aggressively to bolster her digital campaign infrastructure and cultivate supporters online, creating a template that resembles the one that served [Bernie] Sanders so well against Hillary Clinton."

In the first quarter of 2018, she spent more than $600,000 on web advertising and digital campaign consulting, far outspending Sanders and Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) in that area. She's also investing in online ads and email list development. "The heavy spending represented more than two-thirds of Harris' total haul for the quarter," Siders writes. "Harris holds just more than $1.5 million on hand, but her early investment in digital could help her catch up to Democrats with more established followings online." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=574deb6e78e12a0a81dbafc10fcd8769ac84370759121bdcd16f6a3bb2fadead79a5c7eb29640c0d6ce594be6eb9290c

** A message from the Association of American Railroads: The Association of American Railroads wanted to park a modern locomotive in the Rayburn Foyer. Turns out there are rules against that. So we're bringing you the next best thing. Find out what on May 15. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=574deb6e78e12a0ac6435733f58ce2ae5b5094e1ae33af477bbddc16678e81c7ff38611668263c9ae59b7cb57828ecd6 **

TRUMP CONTINUES ATTACKS ON TESTER -- The president escalated his attacks on Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) over the weekend, calling on the man who played a key role in sinking Ronny Jackson's nomination to be VA secretary to resign. At a rally on Saturday, Trump claimed to "know things about Tester that I could say, too," adding that "if I said them, he'd never be elected again." It's unclear what he was alluding to. "The president has for days been sharply criticizing Mr. Tester ... while ignoring Republican resistance to Dr. Jackson's nomination," The New York Times' Peter Baker reports. "But Mr. Tester is from a conservative state that in 2016 supported Mr. Trump strongly, giving him 55.6
percent of its votes."

"Despite Montana's conservative tilt, Mr. Tester has appeared to be in good shape to win re-election, and he has expressed no regret and no public concern about the president's threats," Baker adds. Tester, a former DSCC chairman, had nearly $7 million in his campaign account at the end of the first quarter. Trump tapped Tester's expected general election opponent, Ryan Zinke, to be Interior secretary, leaving "a relatively undistinguished group of Republican challengers," he notes. "Among them, Matt Rosendale, the state auditor, seems most likely to emerge as the nominee." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=574deb6e78e12a0ae2c7c3e94020d9ee01add59d191203a08278cbc60675e996fb48b3342545a2e2c3faa86fa96a96bd

Related reads: "Ronny Jackson won't return to old job as Trump's physician," by Eliana Johnson: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=574deb6e78e12a0a2e8b5581a3e7f3f36e58ca801e9b661d3eda2142d47c43825446143ad4d58844c60eb771e4861d0d and "Gowdy: Some allegations against Ronny Jackson 'warrant' investigation," from David Beavers: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=574deb6e78e12a0aca5ed2ce9a532853b9c82d1b6391884a6e4b1aa641c0cf149f0b360d9cc535da35a358bbe0b9954b

BOTH PARTIES UPSET BY CHAPLAIN'S OUSTER -- Democrats forced a floor vote Friday on a resolution to establish a select committee to investigate Father Patrick Conroy's ouster, a move that came as Catholics on both sides of the aisle expressed dissatisfaction with the House chaplain's forced resignation. Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) told his conference during a private meeting that it wasn't politically motivated and came after multiple members complained that Conroy wasn't meeting their "pastoral needs." "But even that meeting devolved into drama as Catholic Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.) scolded Rep. Mark Walker (R-N.C.), a Baptist pastor, for comments Walker made about the next chaplain needing to
have more of a family background," Heather and Rachel report.

"Little detail has emerged about exactly why Ryan fired Conroy, the first time in history the House chaplain has been forced to step down," they add. "That's left members to speculate about the possible reasons for his ouster, from a sermon he delivered in November, mentioning the GOP tax bill, to Conroy's supposed lack of outreach after the congressional baseball practice shooting last summer." King told reporters that Conroy's historic ouster "raises serious questions" and said members "deserve more of an explanation of why" he was let go. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=574deb6e78e12a0a61a5559552d8e95e6b6e4004d37a7575bef883f9173d09b196846c9f499d36cd26d30c16fa1449d3

WALKER TOUTS HISTORIC FUNDRAISER -- Rep. Mark Walker (R-N.C.) says a fundraising luncheon he held with Vice President Mike Pence in Greensboro earlier this month that brought in more than $650,000 was the single largest fundraising haul for a U.S. House race in state history. "RNC Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel, Sen. Richard Burr, Tillis, U.S. Rep. Ted Budd, former Gov. Pat McCrory and Lt. Gov. Dan Forest attended Walker's event," The News & Observer's Paul A. Specht reports. "Ticket prices ranged from $25,000 to co-chair the event and $15,000 to host it, to $1,000 for guests." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=574deb6e78e12a0a4560301f481e0f1e9f49f5c192340807bd53b20c6e075e523f757af256e9293913bcb59a9efad84b

Related: "Elaine Chao the enforcer," via Axios' Jonathan Swan: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=574deb6e78e12a0ab185a50a298765aee6fdbeda7324eade7b27ebaa25015ed4991ea2202feeacfc400412d7e888a1bd

HOW BREDESEN IS RUNNING IN RED TENNESSEE -- Former Gov. Phil Bredesen is a Democrat running to replace Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), but he's far from advertising it. In fact, some voters in Tennessee aren't sure exactly what he thinks about Trump. "Bredesen is the kind of politician that many have thought were on their way to extinction: A moderate Democrat in a red state whose political career has largely been defined by the Republican and independent support he has fostered for decades," CNN's Dan Merica reports. Tennessee hasn't elected a Democratic senator in 20 years, but Bredesen is betting that running his campaign as a "solutions-oriented politician who is willing to work with anyone"
will pay off. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=574deb6e78e12a0a9d9775b08d8df2b163dc957342d51aded749647ded65fb8b4b802dd0e164b2bd9860749837ef2193

FORMER BUSH LAWYER LAUNCHING DEMOCRATIC CAMPAIGN -- Former George W. Bush ethics lawyer Richard Painter is expected to announce his run for Senate in Minnesota at a news conference today -- as a Democrat. Painter will challenge Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.), who was appointed to former Sen. Al Franken's (D-Minn.) seat after he resigned in January following sexual harassment allegations. "Minnesota's other Senate seat, held by Democrat Amy Klobuchar, is also up this fall, although she is widely expected to win another term," the Star Tribune's Paul Walsh reports. Painter, who is seeking elected office for the first time, teaches corporate law at the University of Minnesota. He has lived in the
state since 2007. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=574deb6e78e12a0a7c281e4f4a8cd549c5b9ca47ec5556513f4d181ede11bb17c61e03a01b8f19fd7310bef37ec02aa4

MEEHAN LEAVES CONGRESS, VOWS TO PAY BACK $39K SETTLEMENT -- Rep. Patrick Meehan (R-Pa.) resigned from Congress on Friday but pledged to repay taxpayers within 30 days the $39,000 he used to settle a sexual harassment claim. The House Ethics Committee was investigating allegations against Meehan, who had announced in January that he wouldn't seek reelection. While denying any wrongdoing, Meehan suggested his resignation was submitted to spare his staff from "the rigors of an" ethics probe. "A special election for Meehan's unexpired term will be held under the old lines -- a battleground district split between Democrats and Republicans," Steven Shepard and I write. "The redrawn seat on the
general election ballot is more Democratic-leaning, and the GOP is likely to lose the district in the new Congress next year." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=574deb6e78e12a0ae7cc47f20e15040e94e223dc53c8553d2612d9fd40238bae40ec656e6466ed9bbb6ad12837885a86

TRANSITIONS -- Michael Brady starts as a press assistant for Sen Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.). He was previously a research fellow at National Journal.

Jennifer Talhelm starts today as the communications and marketing director for Western Resource Advocates and will be located in its Santa Fe office. She most recently was comms director for Sen. Tom Udall (D-N.M.).

TODAY IN CONGRESS -- The House and Senate are out.

FRIDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER -- Ben Howard was first to correctly guess that that William Howard Taft started the tradition of presidents throwing out the first pitch at baseball games in 1910.

TODAY'S TRIVIA -- From Ben: John Quincy Adams returned to the House after leaving the presidency. Who was the only president to return as a U.S. senator? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: nmccaskill@politico.com.

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** A message from the Association of American Railroads: We thought it'd be a Capitol idea (wink) to exhibit powerful technology in the halls of power. But locomotives are 200-ton supercomputers packing enough horsepower to carry the weight of the U.S. economy. We can't just park one in the lobby.

How else can we communicate the sheer size of a freight train? The scale of our 140,000-mile network? The technology we use to ensure we remain one of the safest and most efficient forms of transportation in the world?

Turns out the answer was in front of our eyes. And we'll put it in front of yours. One day only, at the Rayburn Foyer, May 15. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=574deb6e78e12a0ac6435733f58ce2ae5b5094e1ae33af477bbddc16678e81c7ff38611668263c9ae59b7cb57828ecd6 **

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