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Good Evening,

Welcome to The Evening CSIS \u2014my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day plus HIGHLY RECOMMENDED content from around the world. If you want to view this in your browser, click here [ http://CSIS.informz.net/InformzDataService/OnlineVersion/Individual?mailingInstanceId=5297144&subscriberId=1062005454 ] .

Chinese Lake
China will have so many aircraft carriers by 2030 that the South China Sea will be \u201cvirtually a Chinese lake,\u201d a new CSIS study released today warns, arguing that the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region was shifting away from the United States, as the Washington Post \u2019s Simon Denyer reports [ http://wapo.st/1PFTrct ] .

Dive Deeper: CSIS was tasked by Congress in the National Defense Authorization Act of 2015 with conducting an independent assessment of the Asia-Pacific rebalance first announced by President Obama in 2011. That study, Asia-Pacific Rebalance 2025: Capabilities, Presence, and Partnerships/em, [ http://bit.ly/1PFVbm8 ] led by CSIS\u2019s Mike Green, Kath Hicks, and Mark Cancian, was released today along with a video overview produced in cooperation with CSIS\u2019s iDeas Lab.

Hezbollah's Recruits
Israel\u2019s domestic security agency said Wednesday it had thwarted a plot by the son of the chief of the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah to recruit Palestinians to attack Israel.

The Shin Bet agency and the Israeli military said Jawad Nasrallah, the son of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, solicited a Palestinian online who recruited other Palestinians into a militant cell. Another Hezbollah operative instructed the cell about using explosives, training suicide bombers, gathering intelligence on security forces, and purchasing weapons, as Daniel Estrin of the Associated Press reports [ http://abcn.ws/1PFXjKE ] .

Dive Deeper: CSIS\u2019s Jon Alterman authored a new commentary today: \u201cThe Other Crisis.\u201d [ http://bit.ly/1PFXJ3Q ]

Pakistani Taliban Attack
The Pakistani Taliban stormed a university in volatile northwestern Pakistan on Wednesday, killing at least 20 people and wounding dozens, a little more than a year after the massacre of 134 students at a school in the area, as the New York Times reports [ http://nyti.ms/1PFZeyR ] .

Afghan Taliban Attack
Meanwhile, in Kabul, the Afghan Taliban killed at least 7 people and wounded around 25 in a suicide bus bombing, as the BBC reports [ http://bbc.in/1PG09PO ] .

Global Stocks Sink, US Oil Falls
US oil prices tumbled below $27 a barrel today, underscoring the intensifying fears about the pace of global growth and fueling a deepening rout of financial markets in the new year, as the Wall Street Journal reports [ http://on.wsj.com/1PG0BNZ ] .

In that Number
22,338,618
The number of digits in a recently discovered prime number, making it the longest prime number ever found.
Source: Washington Post [ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2016/01/20/the-newest-prime-number-is-more-than-22-million-digits-long/?tid=sm_tw ] .

Critical Quote
\u201cChinese and North Korean actions are routinely challenging the credibility of U.S. security commitments, and at the current rate of U.S. capability development, the balance of military power in the region is shifting against the United States.\u201d
\u2014 Asia-Pacific Rebalance 2025: Capabilities, Presence, and Partnerships .
Source: CSIS [ http://csis.org/files/publication/160119_Green_AsiaPacificRebalance2025_Web_0.pdf ] .

One to Watch


( Photo Credit: LinkedIn. )
Idrees Ali (@idreesali114 [ https://twitter.com/idreesali114 ] ) reports on national security and foreign policy for Reuters. Idrees previously served as a special correspondent at the Washington Post and reported on South Asia for Voice of America. Idrees is one to watch for the latest national security news.

Optics
The same astronomer whose work helped prove that Pluto isn\u2019t a planet has published a report [ http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22 ] claiming that a ninth planet exists in our solar system. NPR has a fantastic rundown with pictures [ http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/01/20/463087037/hints-of-a-hidden-distant-planet-in-our-solar-system ] .

Highly Recommended
ICYMI, superb analysis piece by the New York Times \u2019 David Sanger, \u201cLeft Unspoken on Iran? Sabotage.\u201d [ http://nyti.ms/1PFe34S ]

CSIS Today
Today, CSIS launched the report Asia-Pacific Rebalance 2025: Capabilities, Presence, and Partnerships/em. [ http://csis.org/event/asia-pacific-rebalance-2025-capabilities-presence-and-partnerships ] As challenges in the region are increasing, experts discussed the importance to US national security and global peace and prosperity more broadly. To download the report click here. [ http://csis.org/files/publication/160119_Green_AsiaPacificRebalance2025_Web_0.pdf ]

This Town Tomorrow
Join the Atlantic Council tomorrow at 9:30 a.m. for \u201cUS Cybercom and the NSA: A Strategic Look.\u201d [ http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/events/upcoming-events/detail/us-cybercom-and-the-nsa-a-strategic-look-with-adm-michael-s-rogers ] Admiral Michael Rogers, commander of US Cyber Command and director of the National Security Agency, will discuss strategic priorities for 2016.

CSIS on Demand
On Monday, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull of Australia joined CSIS to discuss Australia\u2019s foreign policy and the opportunities facing US-Australia relations in the coming years. You can download his remarks here [ http://csis.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT01MjkzMjYxJnA9MSZ1PTEwNjQ2OTgzNTkmbGk9MzI4OTIxNjg/index.html ] .

Sounds
The latest Smart Women, Smart Power podcast [ https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/smart-women-smart-power/id924940383?mt=2 ] sits down with Secretary Deborah Lee James of the US Air Force to discuss the current air campaign against ISIS, the situation in Syria, and other issues facing today\u2019s Air Force.

I Like It Like That
Eye-catching things in CSIS's orbit
Interesting piece [ http://econ.st/1PFBjiW ] by the Economist , \u201cPodcasts are gaining audience, but have yet to attract the biggest advertisers.\u201d

Smiles
When you look up in the sky/you can see the stars
And still not see the light.

Big thanks to all who wrote me about Glenn Frey, the Eagles and musical diplomacy. It\u2019s an incredible cross section of people who wrote in and I do appreciate your feedback.

Kitty, a former Peace Corps Volunteer wrote me a note about musical diplomacy that made me smile.

While in Mali, Kitty was working with a local man named Mamadou who didn\u2019t speak English but dreamed of going to America.

Kitty told Mamadou, "Let's pretend you have just landed in New York City, and you jump in a taxi. What is the first thing you say to the driver?"

Mamadou was silent for a moment and then his face lit up: "Take me to the Hotel California!"

\u201cHotel California,\u201d of course, is the Eagles masterpiece co-written by Don Henley, Glenn Frey and Don Felder.

\u201cAlready Gone\u201d is another Eagles classic. It was written by Eagles collaborators Jack Tempchin and Robb Strandlund.

Watching Glenn Frey sing this song [ http://bit.ly/1PFCqPE ] , you wouldn\u2019t believe the words were anyone\u2019s but his. Frey owned it. It\u2019s my favorite Eagles song\u2014besides \u201cHotel California\u201d

Feedback
I always welcome and benefit from your feedback. Please drop me a line at aschwartz@csis.org.


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