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By James Hohmann (
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NAPLES, Fla.-DEAD HEAT IN FLORIDA - QUINNIPIAC POLL SHOWS ROMNEY, GINGRICH TIED:MittRomney edges Newt Gingrich out 36-34 among likely Republican voters in next Tuesday's primary (within the 4% margin of error), but Gingrich's vote share grew each day the poll was in the field after his win in South Carolina. In the last poll, earlier this month, Romney led Gingrich by 12 in the Sunshine State. Rick Santorum is at 10, struggling to stay both relevant and in double digits. Seven percent are undecided, and 38 percent said they might change their mind. Here are the toplines from the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, which went up in the last hour:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5000c694bb4fe0daa642cc74393a43ca19290aaa999977a4261de03fa4bff31d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5000c694bb4fe0daa642cc74393a43ca19290aaa999977a4261de03fa4bff31d . This comes after a poll out yesterday, commissioned by the Florida Chamber of Commerce, showed the two tied at 33:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5000c694bb4fe0dad8920641e9704ef480586d9b8ec0df7d23b510b25e49815d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5000c694bb4fe0dad8920641e9704ef480586d9b8ec0df7d23b510b25e49815d .

NATE SILVER'S FORECAST projects a seven-point Gingrich victory here next Tuesday, but he adds a bunch of caveats."Our forecast model currently gives Mr. Gingrich a 75 percent chance of winning the state. That seems like too confident a prediction, frankly," he writes on the 538 blog. "On the other hand, Mr. Gingrich does appear to have a modest lead in the polls - and the nonpolling factors do not clearly favor one or the other candidate, in my view. So I would call Mr. Gingrich the favorite for now - but not a clear favorite."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5000c694bb4fe0da005d39d9bcdc80a3ad9816b5a395cd8d54e3b1c1a652c02c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5000c694bb4fe0da005d39d9bcdc80a3ad9816b5a395cd8d54e3b1c1a652c02c

NATIONAL POLLING - INDEPENDENTS SOURING ON ROMNEY:Among independents, Romney's unfavorable rating now tops 50 percent - albeit by a single point - a first in Washington Post-ABC polling back to 2006," Washington Post pollster Jon Cohen blogged yesterday. "Just two weeks ago, more independents had favorable than unfavorable views of Romney; now, it's 2 to 1 negative." Romney's unfavorable has spiked to 32 percent among Republicans. Jon's post:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c82676b05d43116784cf75855b18bc6e897621505575066fc862564f1d87806b
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c82676b05d43116784cf75855b18bc6e897621505575066fc862564f1d87806b . Full results:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c82676b05d43116737f6321dc35cc7380f2e2e80dca6f3755847ec27d546326d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c82676b05d43116737f6321dc35cc7380f2e2e80dca6f3755847ec27d546326d .

ANOTHER FREDDIE DISCLOSURE - GINGRICH RELEASE COINCIDES WITH STATE OF THE UNION:"Gingrich began receiving payments from Freddie Mac in 1999 under a contract that paid his consulting business $25,000 a month to work with the mortgage giant's chief lobbyist, according to a second agreement released Tuesday night," the Associated Press reports. "The second contract...provides more detail on the work Gingrich was hired to perform, including 'serve as advisor to Freddie Mac in the areas of strategic planning and public policy.' It also called on Gingrich, who is mentioned by name in the second contract, to 'engage in discussions' with Freddie Mac's chief lobbyist and senior officers 'to
strategize on approaches to Freddie Mac business opportunities and challenges.' ... The contract also states that 'neither The Gingrich Group nor Newt Gingrich will provide lobbying services of any kind nor participate in lobbying activities on Freddie Mac's behalf.'" The AP story:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c82676b05d4311677e053677b88f72b4b326f2ef77f6e3285e1dc0007ee03e36
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c82676b05d4311677e053677b88f72b4b326f2ef77f6e3285e1dc0007ee03e36 . Anna Palmer wrote yesterday about a "rah-rah" speech Gingrich gave for Freddie and other things he did to help the GSE that he definitely will not want conservatives to know about:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c82676b05d431167bcdf967206f085dc49b91700c7904dcf5bbeb4fbba4b78cc
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c82676b05d431167bcdf967206f085dc49b91700c7904dcf5bbeb4fbba4b78cc .

TOP LAWYER ADVISED GINGRICH ON HOW TO AVOID BECOMING A "LOBBYIST" IN 2000:"The man hired by Newt Gingrich more than a decade ago to advise him how to walk the line between consulting and lobbying is the co-author of a leading legal text on lobbying and the chief lobbyist of the American Bar Association," Reuters reports. This story wouldn't have come out if Gingrich had not mentioned that he hired someone to legally avoid "lobbying" during Monday night's debate. The news agency identifies the person he was talking about as Thomas Susman, who said he took on Gingrich as a client in the fall of 2000. 'The subject matter,' he said, 'was simply to advise him and his associates in his business
what the lobbying laws were because he did not want to have to cross the line to register as a lobbyist in any of those jurisdictions.'
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c82676b05d431167fd455aca88b68a636e2ea5b7629a440a3fced62bbfdcbcd0
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c82676b05d431167fd455aca88b68a636e2ea5b7629a440a3fced62bbfdcbcd0

** As the tax return story continues to dog Romney, the NRCC hits an Indiana challenger for owning homes in DC and Gingrich gets rebuffed by Rubio after trying to claim the Rubio mantle, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

THE AIR WAR -

GINGRICH SUPER PAC HAS PURCHASED $6 MILLION IN FLORIDA:They rolled out a 60-second ad that links Romney to Obama on health care and the former Massachusetts governor's self-described progressivism. Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c82676b05d4311673dfb8415ed98afb62e54c1bbe1c6b232d0a4142d37eea530
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c82676b05d4311673dfb8415ed98afb62e54c1bbe1c6b232d0a4142d37eea530 . The Washington Post's Amy Gardner looks at the way they're ramping up a field operation too, building a ground game to make up for the actual Gingrich campaign's lack of one:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c82676b05d4311673a2d10e0731476be6502703d7bf8f4da04a5aa19f8579ef4
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c82676b05d4311673a2d10e0731476be6502703d7bf8f4da04a5aa19f8579ef4 .

ROMNEY SUPER PAC LOOKS BEYOND FLORIDA - MI, NV & AZ BUYS:NBCreports that Restore Our Future, the super PAC spending $9 million to help Romney in Florida, is beginning to buy air time in Michigan, Nevada and Arizona. The GOP ad tracking firm Smart Media Delta says ROF is the first super PAC on the air in those three states.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c82676b05d431167138bd14c2e78f200830458228e51cccd59def58d58a0e117
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c82676b05d431167138bd14c2e78f200830458228e51cccd59def58d58a0e117

HOUSE MAJORITY PAC WILL SPEND $200K TO HELP BOSWELL IN IOWA:House Majority PAC will launch a $200,000 TV ad campaign in the Des Moines and Omaha media markets to boost Iowa Democrat Rep. Leonard Boswell, who's facing a competitive post-redistricting battle against GOP Rep. Tom Latham. Boswell has already been the target of about $600,000 of advertising from Republican-aligned groups. (h/t Alex Isenstadt)

TAX RETURNS - DAY 2 STORIES:

WALL STREET JOURNAL - "ROMNEY RETHINKS KEY INCOME-TAX BREAK": "If elected president, Mitt Romney might consider ending a tax break that helped the former Massachusetts governor accumulate his fortune, an aide suggested Tuesday...Later in the day, in a signal of how the tax issue is roiling the GOP campaign, the Romney camp tried to step back from the aide's remarks, underscoring that the former Massachusetts governor didn't want to raise anyone's taxes. The back-and-forth Tuesday about Mr. Romney's approach to one particular tax break began when Lanhee Chen, the candidate's policy director, indicated in a call with reporters the candidate might be willing to reconsider a
tax break known as 'carried interest' as part of a comprehensive tax overhaul. The break gives private-equity and venture-capital executives a relatively low 15% tax rate on much of their income."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c82676b05d4311672789be000fd06373fc87898e8d0b28adf787b76ff61c1025
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c82676b05d4311672789be000fd06373fc87898e8d0b28adf787b76ff61c1025

NEW YORK TIMES - "PARTISAN SPLIT OVER TAX POLICIES":"A New York Times/CBS News poll released Tuesday found that a majority of Republicans approve of the current tax policy, while most Democrats and independents disapprove of taxing income from capital gains at a lower rate than earned income."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c82676b05d431167ea7a33294fd849f7f4e99e76c359e3d7147dc809aa252511
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c82676b05d431167ea7a33294fd849f7f4e99e76c359e3d7147dc809aa252511

POLITICO - SANTORUM TRIES TO CAPITALIZE:He said at stops on both of Florida's coasts that his modest upbringing makes him the Republican candidate most able to connect with "average" people. It was a not-so-subtle jab at Romney's $20 million income in each of the last two years. "I wish I'd have made some gazillion dollars last year. I might be in a little better shape financing my own campaign, like he's doing," he told supporters at a town hall in Punta Gorda yesterday afternoon. My story:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7f23a59600ddaba0d580c931030632ea1c07040f3656e4ad253b1fd4695bb49b
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7f23a59600ddaba0d580c931030632ea1c07040f3656e4ad253b1fd4695bb49b .

USA TODAY - ROMNEY OUTEARNS MAJORITY OF TOP 1%:"Just 8,274 federal tax returns out of more than 140 million filed in 2009 had income that totaled $10 million or more, the most recent data available from the IRS show. The 2010 adjusted gross income of Romney and his wife, Ann, totaled $21.7 million, according to their tax return. That means they ranked high even among the top 8,274 tax returns."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7f23a59600ddaba023fd6345cc1ae38fcebc4bb70d874cb68729ec439af3f936
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7f23a59600ddaba023fd6345cc1ae38fcebc4bb70d874cb68729ec439af3f936

THE STATE OF THE UNION - LAST NIGHT'S SPEECH WAS THE OPENING STATEMENT OF THE PRESIDENT'S CAMPAIGN AGAINST ROMNEY:"Mr. Romney, whom the president's aides still view as his most likely opponent in the fall, was the unspoken adversary in Mr. Obama's call for a more equitable society - the natural foil for his proposals to level the playing field for middle-class Americans, from taxes to trade policy," Mark Landler writes on A19 of today's New York Times. "Nine months before he faces the voters, Mr. Obama seized what is likely to be one of his most prominent platforms of the year to draw a bright line between himself and Mr. Romney - and, in the process, try to appeal to those frustrated by
the deepening economic divide. Gone was the soaring language of his last State of the Union address, when the president spoke of winning the future - a challenge he likened to 'our generation's Sputnik moment.' With the tents of the Occupy protesters catching snow in American cities, he was tapping into a national sense of grievance."

Landler says Obama might as well have been talking about Romney when he proposed levying a millionaires' tax, defended his administration's bailout of the auto industry ("some even said we should let it die,") and promised to fight efforts to undo Wall Street regulatory reform."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7f23a59600ddaba05b4ee7303c7043c4a864eaa237ec88bb4f8ec59fda382274
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7f23a59600ddaba05b4ee7303c7043c4a864eaa237ec88bb4f8ec59fda382274

Talking Points Memo editor Josh Marshall described the speech as"A POINT-BY-POINT REFUTATION" of Romney:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7f23a59600ddaba0012f79639a0774712e9f53c5c10d6e9198bbe0b6eac27287
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7f23a59600ddaba0012f79639a0774712e9f53c5c10d6e9198bbe0b6eac27287 . It's worth noting that this is probably exactly how Boston wants it to be framed, especially when they can tell Republicans it shows they're most afraid of him and when the president is calling for tax hikes.

BOEHNER BACKS UP ROMNEY:The Speaker of the House said "General Electric is more the face of a broken tax system" than Romney's tax returns, per ABC. "Well, we all know that there's a reason we have low rates on capital gains. That's because it spurs new investment in our economy and allows capital to move more quickly," Boehner told reporters at a news conference. "And this election's going to be a referendum on the president's economic policies. His policies have failed."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7f23a59600ddaba00f17cae7b755524ca8fb8291ad35c4a09c9062e3757d44e6
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7f23a59600ddaba00f17cae7b755524ca8fb8291ad35c4a09c9062e3757d44e6

THE FIGHT FOR FLORIDA - GINGRICH PLAYS THE CHARLIE CRIST CARD:"In an attempt to tarnish Mitt Romney's conservative credentials, Newt Gingrich on Tuesday connected Romney to Florida's former governor, the once-ambitious moderate who fell so far out of favor with the GOP that in 2010 he switched parties. 'We discovered last night that Mitt Romney has picked up Charlie Crist's campaign manager,' Gingrich said at the Tick Tock Restaurant in St. Petersburg. 'I thought that told you everything you need to know about this primary.' With his Crist slur, Gingrich sought to frame himself as this year's Rubio...Romney's camp was quick to push back on the emerging storyline...'Maybe because he lost his
whole staff, he's consumed with other people's staff,' Romney said after an event in front of a foreclosed home. 'I don't think this is about staff, I think this is about the candidate.'" Reid Epstein and Juana Summers:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7f23a59600ddaba083098ca318c979b45364e3f9b5a36544b1b1ab5d3baa39b4
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7f23a59600ddaba083098ca318c979b45364e3f9b5a36544b1b1ab5d3baa39b4 .

RUBIO DEFENDS ROMNEY:'Mitt Romney is no Charlie Crist. Romney is a conservative, and he was one of the first national Republican leaders to endorse me. He came to Florida, campaigned hard for me, and made a real difference in my race.'

WHAT THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ARE UP TO:Gingrich, Romney and Santorum are scheduled to speak individually at a candidate forum sponsored by Univision in Miami today. Santorum's only solo public appearance of the day is here in Naples at 9 a.m. Romney speaks in Orlando and participates in a Cuba pro-democracy event in the mid-afternoon in Miami. Gingrich delivers a morning lecture on Latin America in Miami, goes to Wings Plus in Coral Springs, hosts a space industry roundtable in Cocoa and wraps up with a town hall there on the Space Coast.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7f23a59600ddaba07f6a33a18c2f29ce35536f5070e8c20062777be2932b4f3f
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7f23a59600ddaba07f6a33a18c2f29ce35536f5070e8c20062777be2932b4f3f

POTUS TAKES HIS SHOW ON THE ROAD:"In the morning, the President will travel to Cedar Rapids, Iowa...Later in the afternoon, the President will deliver remarks at the Intel Ocotillo Campus in Chandler, Arizona...In the evening, the President will depart Arizona en route Las Vegas, Nevada."

"EVERY DAY" - NRCC WEB AD BRACKETS OBAMA:In an effort to tie targeted Congressional Democrats to Obama during his campaign stops in the next couple days, the National Republican Congressional Committee is releasing a web video on what President Obama and Washington Dems' policies have done to America on average every day since he took office. Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7f23a59600ddaba089fe50883e5a772439b2b997ed510748385cf2e6cefcadfc
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7f23a59600ddaba089fe50883e5a772439b2b997ed510748385cf2e6cefcadfc .

"FAMILIAR RHETORIC" - RNC NOTES CONTINUITY OVER 3 SPEECHES:"After three years of failed policies and broken promises, it's not surprising that Barack Obama can only repeat himself," the Republican National Committee says. Watch the 1.5-minute video:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7f23a59600ddaba0dd61cb30c4843ead130fbe53d287daeebff5a4ef44412fdb
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7f23a59600ddaba0dd61cb30c4843ead130fbe53d287daeebff5a4ef44412fdb .

SNEAK PEEK -- NRCC HITS INDIANA CANDIDATE FOR DC HOMES:The NRCC islaunching a paid online ad against Brendan Mullen in the open Indiana Second race (this is Joe Donnelly's seat). Mullen and his wife own three homes in D.C. A video editor drew the homes to look exactly like his. It's their first paid effort against a challenger this cycle. The NRCC will spend $3,000 on "Right at Home," which Republicans note is more than a typical DCCC radio buy. It will appear on local news sites starting today Check it out:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7f23a59600ddaba01372812012d1787db2bce0e90c4691b794906b35956b84c3
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7f23a59600ddaba01372812012d1787db2bce0e90c4691b794906b35956b84c3 .

SNEAK PEEK - LEAGUE OF CONSERVATION RAISES RECORD AMOUNT FOR CANDIDATES:The League of Conservation Voters Action Fund will announce later today that at the end of 2011 the organization had raised $258,334 for pro-environment congressional candidates this cycle through its GiveGreen program. This is about four times higher than the 2009 number. Two of the top recipients of LCV fundraising are Montana Sen. Jon Tester ($88,571.38) and New Mexico Rep. and Senate hopeful Martin Heinrich ($76,295.23).

HOUSE POLLING - HOUSE MAJORITY PAC FINDS WALSH SINKING, KING UP 6:The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC is releasing polls in eight targeted House districts today to highlight the party's strength in a flurry of key races following redistricting.Two ofthe surveys, conducted by Public Policy Polling and first reported by POLITICO's Dave Catanese, caught our eye: InILLINOIS 8:32% say Rep. Joe Walsh deserves reelection, his approval rating sits at just 28 percent. While there are two Democrats in the race against Walsh, PPP tested a generic opponent. Walsh trails the generic Democrat 49 percent to 35 percent. InIOWA 4: 48% say Rep. Steve King deserves reelection, his approval rating is
42 percent. King leads Democrat Christie Vilsack 49 percent to 43 percent. She leads among independents, 48 percent to 37 percent. Dave's post:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a346e54ef36be53fbf80885917cf28d1f2431c28641be0b78a22d0124553475c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a346e54ef36be53fbf80885917cf28d1f2431c28641be0b78a22d0124553475c .

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY:"Most people can identify, either with themselves or with loved ones, that life has moments that ... you wish wouldn't have occurred. And you look back on them and you seek forgiveness ... In that sense, it may make me more normal than somebody who wanders around seeming perfect and maybe not understanding the human condition and the challenges of life for normal people."- Newt Gingrich tries to turn his baggage into an asset against Mitt Romney during an interview with the Christian Broadcasting Network Tuesday
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a346e54ef36be53f915b6f30e2fe4f84bf7920ac2ca3a99b2c3d67d6eecaa212
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a346e54ef36be53f915b6f30e2fe4f84bf7920ac2ca3a99b2c3d67d6eecaa212

Go to POLITICO Morning Score Now >> http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a346e54ef36be53f1b4eae3bb38b44a9624389bb54ad5271a4c13ec93c2bc7cd

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