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By James Hohmann (
mailto:jhohmann@politico.com
jhohmann@politico.com ; Twitter: @jameshohmann)

FIRST IN SCORE - GINGRICH WILL AIR 30-MINUTE ENERGY SPEECH:Newt 2012 will announce plans today to purchase 30-minute blocks of airtime in key cities between now and Super Tuesday to air a video address by Newt Gingrich on lowering gasoline prices and achieving energy independence. For the full half-hour, Gingrich looks directly into the camera and speaks without a teleprompter or text. "The answer to Governor Romney's 30-second attack ads filled with garbage is a 30-minute address filled with substance," Gingrich Communications Director Joe DeSantis says in a forthcoming release. The campaign says it will announce air times and locations of the speech in the coming days, but DeSantis
declines to say how much money will actually be put behind the video. Watch it (and read the full transcript):
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c8b6fe2423102b9b9499b56df6ebb1bf86381f2ac9610fc552d526d96a48de36
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c8b6fe2423102b9b9499b56df6ebb1bf86381f2ac9610fc552d526d96a48de36 .

SNEAK PEEK - REPORT HIGHLIGHTS "ROMNEY'S VETERANS PROBLEM":The Truman National Security Project, a D.C.-based progressive national security leadership institute, finds that Mitt Romney has underperformed in counties with large veterans' populations so far this year. In 16 of 18 counties that have voted with veteran populations greater than 15 percent (the national average is 8), Romney has underperformed his own statewide numbers by an average of 11 percent. In counties where the veterans' population makes up more than 10 percent, Romney lags his statewide number by an average of six points.

MORE:The left-leaning group offers five possible reasons, including that Romney-who never served in uniform-is "culturally disconnected from the 'blue collar workers' of the U.S. military." They outline what could become a Democratic message in the general election, raising doubts about his record as governor on pro-vet legislation and accusing him of wanting to turn V.A. health care into a voucher program. They'll host a series of press calls with veterans and advocates in upcoming primary states (Michigan, Georgia, Massachusetts, Ohio and Virginia). The first is scheduled for today in Arizona at 11 a.m. MT. Speakers include State Rep. Ruben Gallego and state House candidate Jonathan
Larkin, both Marine veterans. Read David Solimini'sfour-page memo, which includes the numbers for their calculations:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c8b6fe2423102b9bce3b8c0743c1e63acd26226522f8690e61cccf753b22cacd
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c8b6fe2423102b9bce3b8c0743c1e63acd26226522f8690e61cccf753b22cacd .

** As Romney supporters worry that Arizona is slipping away, Santorum struggles to deal with his Drudge problem and Bachmann gets put in a new district, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

LATEST POLLING-

QUINNIPIAC NATIONAL:Santorum, 35; Romney, 26; Gingrich, 14; Paul, 11. Santorum leads Romney head-to-head 50 - 37. From the press release that just went out: "But if the GOP convention picks a new candidate, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is the top choice of Republicans , with 32 percent, followed by former governors Sarah Palin of Alaska and Jeb Bush of Florida with 20 percent each and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels with 15 percent." 12% said someone other than the four offered:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c8b6fe2423102b9b7d436348066ed24edaba7043c82951a093ad836583d6ae31
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c8b6fe2423102b9b7d436348066ed24edaba7043c82951a093ad836583d6ae31 .

AP/GFK NATIONAL:Santorum, 33; Romney, 32; Gingrich, 15; Paul, 15. "Just 40 percent of Republicans say they have a great deal of interest in following the contest, compared with 48 percent in December," per the AP.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c8b6fe2423102b9bbcee96569ac7ecc0ff436f64fdf258db33ccd411111dcec2
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c8b6fe2423102b9bbcee96569ac7ecc0ff436f64fdf258db33ccd411111dcec2

TIME/CNN/ORC of ARIZONA:Romney, 36; Santorum, 32; Gingrich, 18; Paul, 6. CNN story:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c8b6fe2423102b9b35b272e4a5df90a0780ca9b72846f108f82f4a6d5de6175b
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c8b6fe2423102b9b35b272e4a5df90a0780ca9b72846f108f82f4a6d5de6175b .

Time's Alex Altman analyzes the numbers:"Romney has cobbled together a coalition that includes female voters, urbanites and more moderate and educated Arizonans. He leads Santorum among women (38% to 33%), white collar Republicans (39% to 32%), college graduates (38% to 31%), voters who are neutral toward or oppose the Tea Party movement (42% to 27%) and those who make under $50,000 (36% to 28%). Romney's stronghold is Maricopa County, home to the state's capital and largest city, Phoenix, and where he holds a 6-point advantage. The two candidates are deadlocked across the remainder of the state. Santorum's lone significant demographic advantage is among born-again Christians, with whom he
leads Romney 37% to 28%... Santorum is locked in a virtual dead heat with Romney among self-identified conservatives, blue collar voters and Tea Party supporters."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c8b6fe2423102b9bc70d14b84e33b0f92ab45f2460d1a0eb40393974a2690562
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c8b6fe2423102b9bc70d14b84e33b0f92ab45f2460d1a0eb40393974a2690562

PPP of WASHINGTON STATE:Santorum, 38; Romney, 27; Paul, 15; Gingrich, 12.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c8b6fe2423102b9b29a7e16bcdc6f4cac932c96d7592e14cd625374b26a7dc46
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c8b6fe2423102b9b29a7e16bcdc6f4cac932c96d7592e14cd625374b26a7dc46

DRIVING THE DAY - TONIGHT'S DEBATE ON CNN AT 8 P.M. ET:Nearly a month after the last debate, tonight brings the 20th and final showdown before Super Tuesday. Four men will be on stage in Mesa, Arizona, but the focus will be on the Romney-Santorum fight. "Santorum, while less theatrical than Gingrich, is the most agile debater in the current field. But Romney is also strong, and has tended to perform at his best when he's had to come from behind - witness the two Florida debates before the Jan. 31 primary. In those venues, when he needed a command performance, he delivered," Maggie Haberman writes in her curtain-raiser. Santorum"will need to avoid seeming angry or defensive, reactions Romney
is likely to try to provoke."

"ONE POINT TO WATCH is how he and his rivals handle discussions of faith (the debate falls onASH WEDNESDAY) at a time when theology, world views and belief systems are frequently mentioned in the campaign dialogue - usually with respect to President Obama." Maggie's piece:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daa76b806a7d8330ea601d663878424c4192ce280848deb19e9ac6532a4fd7da
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daa76b806a7d8330ea601d663878424c4192ce280848deb19e9ac6532a4fd7da .

"LET NEWT BE NEWT" - GINGRICH WILL BE THE X-FACTOR:"Gingrich, more than any other candidate, has seen his fortunes ebb and flow with debates, and there is a consensus in his team that his big loss in Florida's Republican presidential primary last month was in no small part because of debates in which he strained to look above the fray," The New York Times' Trip Gabriel writes. "According to one top aide, Mr. Gingrich's two daughters had advised him to strike a presidential pose, but that was not the Newt Gingrich voters craved. 'To some extent,' said Bob Walker, another top adviser, 'we didn't let Newt be Newt in those debates.' In the debate on Wednesday in Mesa, Ariz., the first in nearly
a month, Mr. Gingrich will not be center stage. His advisers believe that will allow him to remain unscathed while [Santorum and Romney] do battle.'They can be the Chihuahuas, and he can be Churchill,' said Kellyanne Conway, a senior adviser to Mr. Gingrich." On A14:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daa76b806a7d83306eb2d513b13dc275bc58eae757015a4a73f54972c2000eaa
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daa76b806a7d83306eb2d513b13dc275bc58eae757015a4a73f54972c2000eaa .

THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC'S FIVE THINGS TO WATCH: Romney's tone; Can Santorum change the subject?; Gingrich's last stand?; John King's moderation; "The Babeu factor:Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu's endorsement of Romney was barely noted when made, but now, the embattled lawman has become an issue in the 2012 presidential campaign. Babeu's office and congressional campaign were rocked late last week by accusations that the Republican rising star and border-security hawk may have abused his power by threatening a former boyfriend. Babeu denies the allegations of misconduct but publicly acknowledged for the first time Saturday that he is gay. The Mesa debate is being held as news about the
scandal dominates Arizona headlines. Nationally, much of the coverage has focused on Babeu's decision Saturday to step down as Arizona co-chairman of Romney's campaign. Romney can consider himself lucky if Babeu's name doesn't come up at the forum, but CNN moderators at past debates have not been shy about injecting late-breaking controversies into their line of questioning."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daa76b806a7d83308d2fcf3d4638451fee5176e9e9749c75f035a515f32c5ac3
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daa76b806a7d83308d2fcf3d4638451fee5176e9e9749c75f035a515f32c5ac3

HOW THE DEBATE IS BEING HYPED ACROSS THE MSM -

CNN(pegged on the Arizona polling): "ROMNEY STRUGGLES TO SEAL DEAL WITH THE MOST CONSERVATIVE VOTERS":
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daa76b806a7d8330c89cee23c50df49af464b97d5fa4b89b16d52c40463c0e32
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daa76b806a7d8330c89cee23c50df49af464b97d5fa4b89b16d52c40463c0e32

REUTERS: "SANTORUM TO GET HIS TURN IN SPOTLIGHT":
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daa76b806a7d83304126bab8c0e50e89b5120b9006dd6771b39323e368af97b9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daa76b806a7d83304126bab8c0e50e89b5120b9006dd6771b39323e368af97b9

CLEVELAND PLAIN DEALER(on a McClatchy curtain-raiser):"GOP DEBATE START OF BIG WEEK FOR ROMNEY":
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daa76b806a7d833071b800b187689f81519cc02f4af0f2a074cb624259d02e44
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daa76b806a7d833071b800b187689f81519cc02f4af0f2a074cb624259d02e44 .

ARIZONA -

KEY ROMNEY BACKER URGES COURSE CORRECTION:"Randy Pullen, a former chairman of the Arizona Republican Party, told CNN that Arizona is dangerously close to slipping out of Romney's reach, though he still predicted a victory here for the former Massachusetts governor in next Tuesday's primary.'He is certainly not ahead by 20 points like he was a few weeks ago after Florida,' Pullen said. 'On election day, I think Rick Santorum is going to win. But I think early balloting is going to Mitt. I think enough votes have already been cast.' Romney needs to spend more time 'connecting with the people on the grassroots level,' he said. 'He has all the right endorsements...He is getting money
from all the right people. So he has done all that. But they somehow forgot that these people are the ones that vote.Their strategy has been to play one candidate off another, but it never really got them to a majority.'" Peter Hamby:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daa76b806a7d8330530616dde54cdc075812b0fc7367bae8d9fcddfcedbf183e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daa76b806a7d8330530616dde54cdc075812b0fc7367bae8d9fcddfcedbf183e .

BREWER SAYS ROMNEY'S ADVANTAGE IS ERODING - PLANS TO ENDORSE AFTER THE DEBATE:"Gov. Jan Brewer of Arizona, who plans to make an endorsement in the race after the debate, said in an interview that Mr. Santorum was eroding Mr. Romney's advantage because 'he comes across as straightforward, honest and solid,'" per The New York Times' Mike Shear and Jeff Zeleny. "She said she believes that Mr. Romney is conservative, but that many voters do not."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daa76b806a7d833096108fb5f4d76af9d72ac0c6054b81c74d56df5be4137fca
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daa76b806a7d833096108fb5f4d76af9d72ac0c6054b81c74d56df5be4137fca

SHERIFF JOE WILL NOT ENDORSE BEFORE PRIMARY:"Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, whose hardline stance on illegal immigration has drawn him national controversy as well as a Justice Department investigation, says he will not endorse a GOP presidential candidate before next Tuesday's Arizona primary," The Washington Post's Felicia Sonmez reports from Phoenix. "Arpaio also said that he plans to hold a news conference on March 1 announcing the results of an investigation into President Obama's 'birther situation,' although he declined to go into detail about what he plans to say...Arpaio said that he had met with Santorum on Tuesday morning and that Gingrich had called him last week. All of
the candidates in the race have asked for his endorsement, he said."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daa76b806a7d8330025375e1ee9a173dcb516cec58c6f490eaccb30ead99da09
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daa76b806a7d8330025375e1ee9a173dcb516cec58c6f490eaccb30ead99da09

WHAT THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ARE UP TO BEFORE THE DEBATE:Romney holds a morning rally (9:50 MT) in Chandler. Santorum speaks at a Tucson tea party rally at 11:30. Gingrich visits an elementary school in Gilbert. Paul hosts a fundraising breakfast and lunch in Mesa at the Hilton. Details:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daa76b806a7d833028ebe87038529f28c783f425521ad77e9a593bd473aa5404
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daa76b806a7d833028ebe87038529f28c783f425521ad77e9a593bd473aa5404

SANTORUM -

HE RAISED "WELL OVER $6 MILLION" IN FEBRUARY:That's what he told reporters in Arizona last night. This doesn't count the Super PAC or the $4 million he raised in January.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=005af5830478a73ef73d54fc97f0921c241671eb1713e7b8b922a5aa2959f852
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=005af5830478a73ef73d54fc97f0921c241671eb1713e7b8b922a5aa2959f852

HE'S A QUINTESSENTIAL RUST BELT POL AT HEART:Jonathan Martin offers important texture for framing how we should think about Santorum's tenure in Congress. "For a Pennsylvania Republican, and especially a social conservative like Santorum, constituent service, bringing home federal checks and trumpeting his clout was a necessity for political survival. It was part of his appeal to members of both parties back home. But that half of his political personality - Rick the Rust Belt pol - left a trail of controversial votes and odd coalitions that are proving hard to explain to conservatives.'I always thought that there was Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania and a Rick Santorum in Washington,' said
longtime Philadelphia Democrat Larry Ceisler, noting the duality of a politician who could battle on the Senate floor with Barbara Boxer over partial-birth abortion on a Thursday and strategize with the Building Trades unions about how to score federal money for the Philadelphia Housing Authority on a Friday."

MORE FROM JMART: "Santorum emerged from the tradition of veteran Pennsylvania congressmen like former Rep. John Murtha and former Sen. Arlen Specter, in which working the levers of Washington was an essential - and utterly uncontroversial - way of life for members of the delegation...One former House aide in the Pennsylvania delegation recalled thatthere were always two factions on Santorum's staff - 'the pragmatic guys and the religious guys,' as the aide put it. One group would look out for the state and his political interests there while the other was more focused on national issues and opportunities to highlight Santorum's compassionate conservative credentials."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=005af5830478a73e7ad7f2baaa1b6e405fdf89e9fb1a6f5ee0734bfdabb05dc0
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=005af5830478a73e7ad7f2baaa1b6e405fdf89e9fb1a6f5ee0734bfdabb05dc0

SANTORUM SCRUTINY -

HUFFPO ACCUSES HIM OF ONCE BEING FOR ABORTION RIGHTS:"In his first run for office in 1990, his campaign put out an issue statement on abortion that, by today's standards, would put him among the moderates of the GOP. Abortion, he wrote, requires 'a sensitivity to the genuine concerns of both sides.' While 'government must be on the side of human life' he recognized that 'it is very difficult to criminalize any activity once a large portion of society comes to see it as a 'right,'" according to The Huffington Post's Sam Stein and Jason Cherkis. "The statement was referenced in several newspaper articles from that campaign, including a Pittsburgh Press report that noted he withdrew
the statement 'after settling on a position opposing most forms of legalized abortion.'

ALSO: "In a December 1995 Philadelphia Magazine article -- which the Huffington Post pulled from Temple University archives -- Santorum conceded that he 'was basically pro-choice all my life, until I ran for Congress... But it had never been something I thought about.'" The story includes screen shots of the questionnaire and the magazine:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=005af5830478a73ed7d131d8f912be87878dbad33df0b302f129be0d39b7f407
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=005af5830478a73ed7d131d8f912be87878dbad33df0b302f129be0d39b7f407 .

CAMPAIGN DENIES IT:"Late Tuesday, Santorum adviser John Brabender, after checking with the candidate, said, 'He never held a pro-choice position,'" Dan Balz reports.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=005af5830478a73e17a9c6dde7723088c559f36f4ab26c859b2d3dd15aedddd6
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=005af5830478a73e17a9c6dde7723088c559f36f4ab26c859b2d3dd15aedddd6

THE DRUDGE PROBLEM:Just as he went hard after Newt Gingrich, Matt Drudge's site is now going hard after Santorum. The lead item yesterday, which got widely picked up on cable and talk radio, was a partial transcript of a 2008 speech the former senator gave at Ave Maria University in Florida. From the speech: 'Satan is attacking the great institutions of America, using those great vices of pride, vanity, and sensuality as the root to attack all of the strong plants that has so deeply rooted in the American tradition."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=005af5830478a73e00673928523c3659e7edd9b50163bf11a849b6211e55a941
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=005af5830478a73e00673928523c3659e7edd9b50163bf11a849b6211e55a941

DRUDGE THIS MORNINGlinks to a CNN post about Santorum's response to the item last night. "I'll defend everything I say," Santorum said. He also links to a USA Today story by Jackie Kucinich, headlined "Santorum criticizes Drudge Report item about 2008 speech." He called the whole thing a joke and intimated that the Romney camp planted it. CNN:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=005af5830478a73e282172df9be771261bc9f778c801a042527b37e3f4abdfa4
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=005af5830478a73e282172df9be771261bc9f778c801a042527b37e3f4abdfa4 . USA Today:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=005af5830478a73ed3416d21ef19b3fe9ca0815d803a17619e375575d47b2f0a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=005af5830478a73ed3416d21ef19b3fe9ca0815d803a17619e375575d47b2f0a .

"I'LL HOLD MY NOSE" - JEFFRESS TO VOTE FOR ROMNEY DESPITE MORMONISM:"'I'll hold my nose and vote' for Mitt Romney, says Southern Baptist pastor Robert Jeffress, who made headlines in October for calling the Mormon Church a cult [while introducing Rick Perry at an event Romney appeared at]," USA Today reports. "Jeffress, head of a Texas megachurch, was [on] with MSNBC host Lawrence O'Donnell."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=005af5830478a73e0eb80848a08ea0371a67a6614520570c7b89305e78245588
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=005af5830478a73e0eb80848a08ea0371a67a6614520570c7b89305e78245588

MICHIGAN MELEE -

THE AIR WAR:Restore Our Future has reserved a total of $1,084,538 in airtime for the last week of the race, a media-buying source tells Alex Burns, while the pro-Santorum Red White & Blue Fund has put in $496,920 for broadcast TV between Feb. 22 and 28.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=005af5830478a73e70fb320df48bbbdae4a78a462684f6eeb431ed4915b87cdf
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=005af5830478a73e70fb320df48bbbdae4a78a462684f6eeb431ed4915b87cdf

The Red White & Blue Fund is running a new attack ad against Romney that they have not released, but Alex got this script from an operative: "How can Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama when on the vital decisions, they're not much different? Like Obama, Romney drastically increased spending, increased state taxes and fees. Even worse, Romneycare is the blueprint for Obamacare. Who can win? Rick Santorum: principled leader who fought against big government, with a bold plan to create jobs and cut wasteful spending. Rick Santorum for President."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=005af5830478a73e98b0e35eeec7b890a13db7459ff257459e6985a62b19a19e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=005af5830478a73e98b0e35eeec7b890a13db7459ff257459e6985a62b19a19e

GINGRICH WILL SKIP THE STATE: The Atlanta Journal Constitution reported yesterday that the Gingrich campaign canceled a tentative trip at the end of the week to the Wolverine State. "On the day that Arizona and Michigan vote, Gingrich will conducting a bus tour through Georgia," the paper notes.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6248ceaf5c0267cb3e9507e1b3851b47603315b2a86a8cd90d44dadbc06f7d79
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6248ceaf5c0267cb3e9507e1b3851b47603315b2a86a8cd90d44dadbc06f7d79

ROMNEY PLAYS THE UNDERDOG:"Romney's campaign is sending double messages about his native state of Michigan," CBS' Sarah Boxer notes. "'Plan on winning. Hope to win,' Romney said on Tuesday after a town hall. But some of his advisers and allies are trying to play down expectations for the Feb. 28 primary, just in case.'Mitt Romney is fighting like an underdog,' Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette told the town hall audience. For at least the second day in a row, he predicted Romney would be 'the comeback kid' when the election returns come in."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6248ceaf5c0267cb379a3bad7ed4d308a3bbd5cd056b857598083bb34169d726
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6248ceaf5c0267cb379a3bad7ed4d308a3bbd5cd056b857598083bb34169d726

MICHIGAN MEMBERS WHO BACK ROMNEY WORRY:Seven of Michigan's nine Republican House members have endorsed Romney.AlexIsenstadt reached out to them: "I think Romney is going to do a good job. Will he do enough to win as strong as he needs to in Michigan? It remains to be seen," said Michigan GOP Rep. Tim Walberg, who resides in the southeastern 7th District. "There's obviously an element out there looking for an alternative," said GOP Rep. Bill Huizenga, a former state representative whose district encompasses part of western Michigan. "I think it breaks back towards him, but he's got to go earn it," Huizenga continued.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6248ceaf5c0267cb8f3c8a648a94353f379a5b14277017719714d5d8ffca6bca
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6248ceaf5c0267cb8f3c8a648a94353f379a5b14277017719714d5d8ffca6bca

WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS UP TO:"In the morning, the President will deliver remarks at the construction site of the Smithsonian National Museum of African American History and Culture. The museum is scheduled to open in 2015 and will be the only national museum devoted exclusively to the documentation of African American life, art, history and culture...Later, the President and the First Lady will host a reception in honor of the groundbreaking of the Smithsonian National Museum of African American History and Culture in the East Room."

RAHM EMANUEL and BILL DALEY are being named Obama campaign co-chairmen today, the CHICAGO TRIBUNE reports:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6248ceaf5c0267cb56a893ccd130e6edb0dc9774fcb3db73a1e8bb8957678bc7
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6248ceaf5c0267cb56a893ccd130e6edb0dc9774fcb3db73a1e8bb8957678bc7 .

THIRD WAY STUDY - "IDEOLOGICAL GULF" BETWEEN ACTIVISTS, VOTERS WIDER ON LEFT THAN RIGHT:Ruth Marcus takes a first look at a new Third Way report in her Washington Post column today: "In 'Family Feud: Democratic Activists V. Democratic Voters,' Todd Eberly, a political scientist at St. Mary's College in Maryland, examined data from the American National Election Studies and focused on the striking divide among Democrats. In the 10 presidential elections since 1972, Democratic activists - those who attended a campaign event and donated money - rated themselves an average of 3.06 on a 7-point liberal-to-conservative ideological scale, with 4 being 'moderate.' By contrast, those who merely
identify as Democrats or lean that way were significantly closer to the center, an average of 3.77. This 'ideological gulf,' Eberly argues, coincides with - and helps explain - decreased party loyalty. Since 1970, Democratic-leaning independents have increased from fewer than one in five members of the Democratic coalition to one in three." Ruth's column:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6248ceaf5c0267cb86e5245c2fa87439b89e97c457e36ae9859eab68f513afc7
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6248ceaf5c0267cb86e5245c2fa87439b89e97c457e36ae9859eab68f513afc7 . Third Way's 12-page report:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6248ceaf5c0267cb24889f2b5b3536862eeb74053da115926dfcf769f4877d23
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6248ceaf5c0267cb24889f2b5b3536862eeb74053da115926dfcf769f4877d23 .

INDIANA SENATE - LUGAR ATTACKS MOURDOCK IN NEW AD:"Sen. Richard G. Lugar, in the fight of and for his political life, began a new TV ad [Tuesday] criticizing his Republican rival, Treasurer Richard Mourdock," per the Indianapolis Star's Mary Beth Schneider. The ad shows mud being thrown at video of Lugar as an announcer says: "Mud? Really? Mourdock and his DC cronies are attacking Senator Lugar again? Typical desperate 11-time candidate Richard Mourdock is throwing mud to hide his own record. Like Mourdock failing to show up for his taxpayer-funded job 66 percent of the time, and proposing a budget so irresponsible one expert called it 'ridiculous' and 'too goofy for words.' Serious times
demand serious leaders. That's Dick Lugar."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6248ceaf5c0267cb8740a5687708bf405da64170128ec97f9cde6affedfe8605
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6248ceaf5c0267cb8740a5687708bf405da64170128ec97f9cde6affedfe8605

ARIZONA SENATE - FLAKE UP 11 OVER BOTH DEMOCRATS:"Republicans look to be in pretty good shape for holding onto Jon Kyl's Senate seat," Democratic Public Policy Polling reports. "GOP front runner Jeff Flake leads both of his Democratic opponents, Richard Carmona and Don Bivens, by identical 11 points margins at 46-35. Wil Cardon, a long shot for the Republican nomination, leads both Democrats as well. He's up 38-32 on Bivens and 37-33 on Carmona.These numbers are pretty similar to what PPP found polling Arizona in November with one exception- Flake has built his lead over Carmona up from 4 points to 11...36% see Flake favorably to only 30% with a negative opinion, and those are
pretty decent statewide numbers for a member of an unpopular Congress."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6248ceaf5c0267cbe189d11f34b956160463b0e28822f439aff35c3554c5d2cc
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6248ceaf5c0267cbe189d11f34b956160463b0e28822f439aff35c3554c5d2cc

MINNESOTA HOUSE - BACHMANN WILL RUN IN NEW DISTRICT:"The redistricting maps that reshape politics once a decade on Tuesday pushed U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann out of the Sixth Congressional District she's represented for years and into that of nearby Democratic colleague Betty McCollum. Bachmann insists she will run in the newly configured Sixth District anyway, even though she no longer lives there," the Star Tribune's Rachel Stassen-Berger reports. "Legislators won't have that luxury. The maps, issued by a Minnesota judicial panel, will pit 46 legislative incumbents against one another, including some who could be forced to run against other members of their own party or
retire.Coming midway through the state legislative session, the maps are bound to unleash turmoil in the remaining months of lawmaking and on the campaign trail. DFLers appeared far happier with the new maps than Republicans."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6248ceaf5c0267cb263b6e214b9b66c0faa3b2749e14e05e309dc9f3ca963f0c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6248ceaf5c0267cb263b6e214b9b66c0faa3b2749e14e05e309dc9f3ca963f0c

FLORIDA HOUSE - BUCHANAN ACCUSER ADMITS ILLEGAL CONTRIBUTIONS:"A former business partner admits that he, not U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, was responsible for improperly reimbursing employees for contributions they made to Buchanan's campaigns," per the Bradenton Herald. "Under a consent judgment announced Tuesday, a federal court in Jacksonville found that Sam Kazran committed 'non-knowing and non-willful' violations when he reimbursed employees of a Jacksonville car dealership he co-owned with Buchanan a total of $67,900 for contributions they made to Buchanan's congressional campaigns in 2005, 2006 and 2007...While Buchanan was not a party in the case, the court action is the latest legal
victory for Buchanan as he tries to fend off legal and political questions about his ethics and how he has raised money for his campaigns."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6248ceaf5c0267cb819162e4407c6352ff9f6312c0486a2c3f0ae62753f1986a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6248ceaf5c0267cb819162e4407c6352ff9f6312c0486a2c3f0ae62753f1986a

ARIZONA HOUSE - BABEU ASKS PANEL TO INVESTIGATE CLAIMS:"Pinal County's top prosecutor has asked a special panel formed to investigate alleged violations of public trust to review claims made against Sheriff Paul Babeu, and Attorney General Tom Horne said he will investigate Babeu at the embattled lawman's request," The Arizona Republic reports. "Pinal County Attorney James P. Walsh said Tuesday that the matter will go before the southern subcommittee of the Public Integrity Task Force, a little-used team formed by the Prosecuting Attorneys' Advisory Council in 1992 to handle cases when local prosecutors had a conflict or wanted to avoid the perception of one. The chairwoman of
the subcommittee has agreed to take the case, though no time frame has been set."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3a35b4a55daf757211cf140eb070ab27ff58fa3c5d036734fdfd915257cae6a3
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3a35b4a55daf757211cf140eb070ab27ff58fa3c5d036734fdfd915257cae6a3

VEEPSTAKES -

MCDONNELL NO LONGER FULLY SUPPORTS ULTRASOUNDS BEFORE ABORTIONS:"Gov. Robert F. McDonnell is backing off his unconditional support for a bill requiring women to have an ultrasound before an abortion, focusing new attention on one of the most controversial pieces of legislation in Virginia's General Assembly this year," The Washington Post's Anita Kumar reports. "Until this weekend, McDonnell (R) and his aides had said the governor would sign the measure if it made it to his desk. McDonnell, who strongly opposes abortion, will no longer make that commitment.But delegates and governor's staff were scheduled to meet Tuesday night to strike a compromise after learning that some ultrasounds
could be more invasive than first thought, according to two officials who were aware of the meeting but not authorized to speak about it publicly. Many of the bill's supporters were apparently unaware of how invasive the procedure could be, one of the officials added."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3a35b4a55daf757259f3ff152e77fb6a38a38a160c887cbc495a6cddd0509e13
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3a35b4a55daf757259f3ff152e77fb6a38a38a160c887cbc495a6cddd0509e13

"CHRISTIE OPENS THE SPENDING SPIGOTS": That's the headline of a Wall Street Journal story from Trenton, with a sub-headline that notes the New Jersey governor "leaves behind lean years on strength of revenue projection." From the story: "After two years of austere budgets, Gov. Chris Christie changed course Tuesday with a budget that restores education spending, pays down pension liabilities and cuts income taxes. In all, Mr. Christie, a Republican, proposed $1.2 billion in additional spending in his $32.1 billion budget plan, a 3.7% increase, according to state documents. It would be the most expensive New Jersey budget in five years if passed in its entirety." WSJ:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3a35b4a55daf75721b1ee462306d75867d14231fcc875102cbc002679a2839ce
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3a35b4a55daf75721b1ee462306d75867d14231fcc875102cbc002679a2839ce . NYT story on the budget:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3a35b4a55daf757268b07a58129f5d1ff4271018c779b98c026c92e4207fead9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3a35b4a55daf757268b07a58129f5d1ff4271018c779b98c026c92e4207fead9 .

RUBIO MEMOIR WILL BE RELEASED ON OCTOBER 2,The Tampa Bay Times reports."An American Son: A Memoir is listed as a 288-page hardcover and is already available on pre-sale for $18.45. Meantime, a biography being written by a Washington Post reporter is scheduled for release on July 3 and costs $16.50 on Amazon. It's called, The Rise of Marco Rubio: A Biography."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3a35b4a55daf7572e7fb4a1b19725beb4921bfd23cca07fb85b33addd8fec20a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3a35b4a55daf7572e7fb4a1b19725beb4921bfd23cca07fb85b33addd8fec20a

LIGHTER CLICKS -

PRESIDENT OBAMA sang SWEET HOME CHICAGO at the White House last night.Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3a35b4a55daf75723fddd66d00e35f4b61af73ac87d6c7654da15b07756cadad
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3a35b4a55daf75723fddd66d00e35f4b61af73ac87d6c7654da15b07756cadad .

STEPHEN COLBERT took Obama to task for flip-flopping on Super PACS during his show last night. Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3a35b4a55daf7572de51782dc778e3625c5087ed6eaa236bb029793b9e913571
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3a35b4a55daf7572de51782dc778e3625c5087ed6eaa236bb029793b9e913571

JON STEWART criticized Republicans last night for complaining about TSA searches while pushing for mandatory ultra-sounds as part of an abortion crackdown. Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3a35b4a55daf757277270442f8e6d9ea7720eaae023b53e07a0e03d5f3cd9dcc
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3a35b4a55daf757277270442f8e6d9ea7720eaae023b53e07a0e03d5f3cd9dcc .

25 HUMANIZING PHOTOS OF MITT ROMNEY from his daughter-in-law's "mommy blog":
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3a35b4a55daf7572c5378090c4514bbc76b125996887dfa9fe09781b8e3a9f71
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3a35b4a55daf7572c5378090c4514bbc76b125996887dfa9fe09781b8e3a9f71 . Craig Romney dressed up like his dad for Halloween in 2007:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3a35b4a55daf7572cb033ded4be6e1cee710ad4e49071a970791663c7b6b885a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3a35b4a55daf7572cb033ded4be6e1cee710ad4e49071a970791663c7b6b885a .

JAN BREWER finger wagging T-shirts were onsale at the Maricopa County GOP luncheon yesterday. Peter Hamby snapped a photo:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8a6698a2144400c3d274807a813f064534eff943b0b076a60e4ae372abf9d25f
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8a6698a2144400c3d274807a813f064534eff943b0b076a60e4ae372abf9d25f .

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY:"I'm at the age where I can do without sex, but not glasses." - Arizona State Sen. Russell Pearce during a GOP lunch speech yesterday as he fumbled for his bifocals
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